Alberta separatists are mad at Danielle Smith and her dodges. Or are they?

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Tyler Dawson is an Edmonton-based editor in The Globe and Mail’s Opinion section. He is the author of The Republic of Alberta: An Idea That Won’t Go Away.

There’s a school of thought – and there’s probably at least a little bit to it – that Premier Danielle Smith has manoeuvred herself into a corner on the quasi-referendum on Alberta’s secession from Canada.

It goes a little like this: Probably a slim majority of United Conservative Party supporters or members are separatists, closeted or not to varying degrees, and Ms. Smith, deeply conscious of the Alberta conservative movement’s habit of deposing party leaders, knows she can’t anger them too much if she wants to keep her job. And so over the course of 2025, she did just that, keeping that wing of her party happy while trying to convince non-separatist Albertans that she was a federalist. And so it went on.

But then the separatists went out and got hundreds of thousands of signatures calling for a secession referendum – or at least they say they did – and Ms. Smith, having gone this far down the road, had no choice but to call a referendum. Which she did, on May 21. Although it isn’t the clear-cut question one might have expected: It’s a two-parter, asking about staying in Canada or beginning the process toward holding an actual secession referendum.

The aforementioned school of thought continues: In addition to angering the federalists, the separatists were going to be furious at her for not announcing a proper secession question, even though Ms. Smith gave them their referendum (sort of). And despite her slipperiness, she could yet lose her job.

Danielle Smith has called a quasi-referendum on secession. It’s best understood as a gambit to preserve her career

There was even some evidence for it. Jeffrey Rath, a prominent separatist, expressed outrage and warned that Ms. Smith could face a leadership review for her intransigence. Mitch Sylvestre, who headed up the petition-collection process, said that Ms. Smith campaigning for Canada when, as he claims, “the largest part of the UCP membership is in favour [of separation]," would cause political problems for her.

“We all need to coalesce around the objective of ending the leadership of the UCP by Danielle Smith AND winning the battle against the remain in Canada question,” wrote Mr. Rath on X after Ms. Smith announced the referendum.

Again, this isn’t entirely far-fetched. To force a UCP leadership review requires the consent of 22 of 87 constituency associations. It’s happened before, and recently: Jason Kenney lost his job as premier and party leader after anger over the COVID-19 pandemic and his governing style led to an internal revolt.

But polling – that scourge of well-manufactured theories of politics everywhere – shows why this grand theory falls apart on closer scrutiny.

Opinion: Danielle Smith is playing a dangerous game with her referendum question on secession

Earlier this month, Ipsos put the question of Ms. Smith’s performance on the separatist file to Albertans. It should be no surprise that on the whole, they aren’t impressed. Fifty-eight per cent, in fact, say they disapprove of Ms. Smith’s handling of separatism, to 33 per cent who support it. Fifty-two per cent say she’s called the referendum just so she can keep her job – they buy the first half of this theory.

But here’s the really important figure: 79 per cent of people who say they would vote to secede approve of the job Ms. Smith is doing. In other words, the idea that the separatists were going to be furious that they didn’t get a proper referendum – that they weren’t going to get a clear vote in October on leaving Canada – doesn’t appear to be entirely true. No matter what Mr. Rath and Mr. Sylvestre have said, the majority of the people they purport to lead actually seem to be OK with the path Ms. Smith is taking. Surely, there are some – 21 per cent, per the polling – who are upset, but that might not be enough people to cause Ms. Smith real problems.

This is probably a good sign for her survival as leader. But the polling offers a bit more insight into Ms. Smith’s manoeuvrings over the past year: 53 per cent of separatists think she’s a federalist, and 55 per cent of federalists think she’s a separatist. This does not bode entirely well for Ms. Smith, what with an election scheduled next year.

It might just be that confusion over what she really believes, plus the approval of 79 per cent of separatists, are the sort of statistical insights that Ms. Smith, hoping for re-election, might not want voters to think all that hard about.