Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks alongside Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in Fort McMurray. Alta., earlier this month. The Prime Minister is pushing for the province to remain in Canada ahead of a vote on separation next week.Greg Halinda/The Canadian Press
A week before Albertans vote on whether to stay a part of Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney made a Thanksgiving pitch on Monday for residents of his home province to cast ballots against taking the process of separation to the next step.
The succinct video of Mr. Carney speaking from a classroom of his former high school in Edmonton was released online, a day before advance polls open for the Oct. 19 referendum. Voters will be asked whether Alberta should remain in Canada or hold a second, binding referendum on leaving the country.
Although he was born in the Northwest Territories, Mr. Carney was raised in the Alberta capital and attended St. Francis Xavier Catholic High School.
“I grew up in Alberta,” he said. “I’m back home a lot these days because we are building big things in Alberta.” In particular, Mr. Carney cited new homes, high-speed rail and a new pipeline to the West Coast.
But the Prime Minister said Canada can’t build big things if it is divided, and that the country is facing threats to its economy, security and way of life.
“We are stronger together,” he said.
Mr. Carney also added that Albertans have a stake in the country.
“A week from today, Albertans will have the opportunity to make an important decision about their future – whether to remain part of Canada or begin a long and uncertain process through which Alberta could separate from Canada,” Mr. Carney said.
“Generations of Albertans helped build this country. It’s yours. It’s ours. And it’s worth fighting for.”
Although Mr. Carney’s government has prioritized major projects in Alberta in the run-up to the vote, it has been criticized for not taking a more active role in mobilizing support for the remain side, leaving the campaign mostly to citizen groups and Alberta’s political parties.
Alberta’s referendum on a separation vote is approaching. Ask us your questions
Polls suggest 70 per cent or more of Albertans want to remain a part of Canada. However, former Alberta deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk, the head organizer of Forever Canadian, a group that is making the case against separation, cautioned against overconfidence based on those numbers.
“Polling that tells you that you’re on the winning side is actually your biggest enemy because it breeds complacency,” Mr. Lukaszuk said on Monday.
“The best example of that is probably Brexit, where the majority of Brits did not want it,” he said, referring to the 2016 referendum on whether Great Britain should leave the European Union. Voters supported the exit.
“They were so sure they were going to win, they chose not to vote and that’s how they lost. I’m always worried about voter turnout,” Mr. Lukaszuk said.
Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney said that a strong showing for the separatists could have long-lasting negative political consequences.
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Mr. Kenney said his sense is that the number of committed separatists in Alberta is at or below 10 per cent. He thinks that other supporters of separation are merely intent on sending a message to the federal government. They cannot win, he said, unless there is very low overall turnout, at or below 40 per cent.
“I hope that we’ll get 70 per cent or better turnout, but that’s not certain,” he said. “I’m not nervous. I’m optimistic, but prepared to be surprised.”
He said that separatists could potentially use momentum from this vote to claim they’re a mainstream movement. “The separatists will see anything north of 10 per cent as material progress, as encouragement to carry on.”
The result, he said, could sow more division in Alberta politics and might be particularly worrisome for conservative parties, because the separatist pressure is almost entirely on the right.
“This will play out in nomination and leadership contests ... for many years to come,” he said.
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Pollster Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research Corp., said there are a number of wild cards to consider as the referendum vote looms. He added that the closing week of any referendum is a particularly vulnerable time.
“All it takes is for someone outside of the province to say something sensational and it can shape the final outcome,” he said.
When Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced the referendum in May, she said in a televised address to the province that it was time to have a vote on the issue, understand the will of Albertans on the subject, and move on. She has said that she and her United Conservative Party support staying in Canada.
Mr. Lukaszuk, asked about Mr. Carney’s video, said the Prime Minister’s messaging has been helpful.
“Our Prime Minister has been doing a good job in this particular campaign. This campaign was not in a traditional style of `Rah, rah. Go out and vote and let me tell you what’s good for you.’ Instead, he has been showing how Canada can work, and how our federalism can be collaborative.”
Mr. Carney will be in Alberta this week to make the case for remaining in Canada. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and other leaders are also scheduled to speak in the province. Mr. Kenney and former NDP premier Rachel Notley, are scheduled to speak on Tuesday in Edmonton.
On Sunday, Ms. Smith’s press secretary, Sam Blackett, said the province will continue its advertising campaign urging Albertans to vote in support of a strong and sovereign Alberta in a united Canada.
He said Ms. Smith will be holding town halls, public events and media interviews, with the focus this week on southern Alberta.
“We will continue to work to get a strong mandate from Albertans for more sustainable immigration policies and to pursue constitutional reforms that increase our province’s sovereignty within Canada,” Mr. Blackett said.