Supporters of the Alberta separation movement fly flags in Edmonton. It’s a dangerous moment to flirt with leaving, given America’s imperialist designs on Canadian territory, the editorial board writes.JASON FRANSON/The Canadian Press
In the lead-up to the Quebec referendum in 1995, Quebec premier Jacques Parizeau was quoted saying that after a yes vote from the majority of Quebeckers, they would be “like lobsters thrown in boiling water.” The European diplomats at the meeting understood this to mean it would be a point of no return for Quebec’s relationship with Canada. Events would create their own momentum.
It’s something for Albertans to ponder as they prepare to vote in their own referendum on Oct. 19. Do they want to embark on an uncertain journey, one that might take them places they do not mean to go?
It might be tempting to view the vote as less consequential than Quebec’s, given that Alberta’s question doesn’t lead directly to separation, instead asking if the province should hold a binding referendum on separation from Canada.
But a vote in favour of a referendum will send Albertans down a dimly lit road, a road whose endpoint is anything but clear.
Some Albertans view advancing separatism as a way to gain leverage with the federal government. But a vote to embark down the path of separation is more than a mere protest vote to show discontent with Ottawa.
Gary Mason: Alberta’s separatists’ greatest liability is their leaders
It’s true that Ottawa hasn’t always been responsive to the province’s needs. But this knife-to-the-throat leverage isn’t needed, given Prime Minister Mark Carney’s dramatic shift on Alberta’s interests.
The federal government is now backing a new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast and rolling back regulations that were stifling development. Mr. Carney has been travelling the world to try to drum up investors and buyers for the province’s natural resources. Alberta’s path to growth within Canada is wide open.
The separatists emphasize the financial benefits of independence, but a referendum to leave opens up a pandora’s box of economic harms. Investors, both local and foreign, will put less money into businesses without the certainty Alberta will remain in Canada. Why spend money on capital-intensive investments in the oil sands, for example, if there’s doubt that B.C. pipelines will carry oil to market?
Enthusiastic separatists paint a picture of a province that will be unleashed without federal restrictions, but instead, it would find itself shut out of existing trade deals and saddled with a portion of Canada’s national debt. New trade barriers and reduced investment would shrink the economy – lessons Britain learned the hard way after Brexit.
Holding a referendum to separate would further open the doors to foreign interference. Russian content farms are already pumping out pro-separation content. U.S. influencers are also trying to boost the separation movement, and a recent Globe investigation showed some separatists have asked for American assistance, offering fresh water, oil royalties and land for a rail corridor in exchange.
Like the lobsters trapped in the pot, Albertans would be rightly shocked to find out their newborn republic had signed away oil royalties, water and land. That giveaway would be a betrayal of an independent Alberta. It is already a betrayal of Canada.
Tyler Dawson: Alberta’s separatists would sell us out to the Americans
It’s a dangerous moment to flirt with separation, given America’s imperialist designs on Canadian territory. It’s not out of the question that an independent Alberta could fall under the control of the U.S. Instead of being a free nation, it could become a territory with limited autonomy, like Puerto Rico.
Voters should ask themselves if they have confidence in the separatist leaders sending them on this uncertain journey. They are sparring amongst themselves, and it’s far from clear what values they share. Would an independent Alberta be a MAGA-inspired republic? What would that mean for those who don’t share that vision? What would happen with Indigenous groups that oppose separation? No one knows the answers.
A strong vote to stay in Canada sets Alberta on a different path. It’s true that Canada has many problems, and this period of global turbulence hasn’t left the country unscathed. Yet Canada is still one of the best places on earth to live, and the envy of millions around the world who admire its democracy, freedom, prosperity, diversity and stability.
Albertans have a choice: embark down an uncertain and perilous road, or reaffirm Alberta’s vital role in Confederation.