Good morning. Donald Trump returns to the White House on Monday, and we’re unpacking the forces that brought him there – more on that below, along with neighbours who grew closer over the pandemic and the late David Lynch’s unforgettable work. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Ottawa will unveil its initial retaliation plan Monday if Trump uses Inauguration Day to proceed with tariff threats
- Former central banker Mark Carney launches his Liberal leadership bid in Edmonton
- Israel’s security cabinet convenes to approve a deal to release hostages and pause the war with Hamas
A torn American flag blows in the breeze in the Minisdah Presbyterian Church cemetery west of Poplar, Mont.TIM SMITH/The Globe and Mail
U.S. politics
Portrait of an aggrieved America
Again, good morning. I’m Steve Kupferman. For the past eight months, I’ve been The Globe and Mail’s U.S. politics editor. Those eight months have been ... I think the strongest word The Globe will allow me to use is “eventful.” When I started this job, Donald Trump’s hush-money trial was happening in Manhattan. That was a comparatively low-key time, before assassination attempts one and two, Joe Biden’s departure from the presidential race and, you know, all the rest.
On Monday, Trump will be inaugurated for the second time, cementing his status as the angry red parenthesis around four years of Democratic rule.
The election result can seem baffling. Until relatively recently, lots of people thought of Trump’s 2016 victory as an aberration. Which invites a question:
How did a country that elected Joe Biden four years ago become Trump’s America once again?
Trump’s resurgence becomes less baffling when you cast your mind beyond the 2024 election cycle and think about his wins as being part of a tectonic shift in American and global politics that began before him and will likely outlast him.
What does that shift consist of? What are the forces driving it, and who are the people swept up in it? These are big, era-defining questions, and as inauguration day approaches, we still don’t have definitive answers to them.
But we think we know where to begin looking for those answers. And so that’s where we sent international correspondent Nathan VanderKlippe.
Welcome to pivot country
Nathan spent weeks travelling to “pivot counties”− parts of the U.S. that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and then switched allegiances to Trump. These counties are where Trump’s message resonated deeply enough to tip the political balance across entire communities.
Obama-to-Trump pivot counties are otherwise a disparate group. There are about 180 of them, spread across the U.S. in states red and blue. They are demographically diverse − some majority white, some majority Black and Latino, some majority Indigenous. And they all have their own histories and their own local concerns.
But Nathan discovered that there are at least some things that seem to unite these places. And those things may point to the long-term changes that have enabled Trump’s rise to power.
Industry, income and the erosion of the middle class: After the election, many pundits and reporters pointed to inflation as a contributing factor to Biden’s defeat. But in some parts of the U.S., economic malaise has been a fact of life for generations, in part because of a federal governing philosophy that prioritized big-picture goals at their expense.
The Globe found that pivot counties have, on average, lower median incomes than the states they are located in. In one pivot county, Grays Harbor, located on the Washington coast, Nathan encountered simmering rage over federal protections for the spotted owl. Locals blamed those regulations for destroying the area’s logging industry nearly 40 years ago. In Trump, some voters finally found a conduit for their outrage.
Frustration with elites: In all the pivot counties Nathan visited, he encountered anger at a set of values that residents associated with the country’s cultural elites − and with the Democratic Party. “I don’t think that an individual can say they’re another sex any more than I can say that I’m a tractor,” Jeff Branick told Nathan in Jefferson County, Tex., where in 2018 Branick was elected county judge as a Republican. He had previously held that office as a Democrat.
Social decay and drugs: America’s addiction to potent synthetic drugs was one of the centrepieces of Trump’s campaign. He laid the blame for the problem with porous borders, which he said had allowed drugs such as fentanyl to enter the country. Nathan met many people in pivot counties who had seen the effects of the drug epidemic, and were grateful to Trump for appearing to prioritize the issue when other politicians had not. One of those places was Roosevelt County, Mont., where local leaders told Nathan fentanyl had been a community-wide source of suffering.
Donald Trump stuffed bears are displayed for sale ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC.Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images
What’s next for the U.S.?
Here are a few questions on our minds as we anticipate the arrival of the second Trump administration.
Will Trump be able to hold his coalition together?
Trump’s support in 2024 was broader than it had been in previous elections, which is both good and bad for him. It won him the presidency, but has also given him many competing interests to please. His Silicon Valley backers, for instance, have different priorities than his nativist, anti-immigration supporters.
Will he have to walk back his promises?
Many of Trump’s most significant campaign pledges could, if actually implemented, have unpopular knock-on effects. His tariffs, for instance, could cause prices to rise. How he weathers this potential double-bind will be something to watch. He and his allies have already backpedaled on some campaign promises, such as his claim that he would end the war in Ukraine in a day.
What, if any, checks will there be on his power?
Trump has claimed a mandate to implement his agenda, and he has nominated loyalists for most of the top jobs in his administration, meaning checks on his actions may have to come from outside the White House. With Congress under Republican control, legislators will almost certainly be pressed to deliver for the president.
The Shot
‘I didn’t realize how unique it is to be so connected with everyone on your street.'
Mary Ghalustians (left) and Vinita Persaud are neighbours who became close during the pandemic.Galit Rodan/The Globe and Mail
Research shows that the time Canadians spend with their neighbours has been shrinking. People are becoming more insular, investing more of their time within their four walls or finding community online. Here’s how some streets bucked the trend, growing closer since the pandemic.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: Going camping this summer? Here’s when Parks Canada reservations open in each province for 2025.
Abroad: A Hong Kong court hears that media mogul Jimmy Lai paid a U.S. general to advise former Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen in late 2017.
The end: The Bank of Canada plans to end quantitative tightening in the first half of 2025 that began in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Farewell: David Lynch, the filmmaker celebrated for his uniquely dark vision such as in Blue Velvet and the TV series Twin Peaks, has died just days before his 79th birthday.