Good morning. We’re digging into Justin Trudeau’s tumultuous 2024 – more on that below, along with the drop in Canada’s family doctors and the arrival of our holiday crossword puzzle. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Trudeau told Freeland over Zoom that Carney would replace her as finance minister
- Nearly one-fifth of Canada’s food facilities were deemed low risk without being inspected, data show
- Canadian-U.S. anti-whaling activist Paul Watson is freed from a Greenland prison
Justin Trudeau in Halifax earlier this month.Riley Smith/The Canadian Press
2024 in Review
Trudeau’s leadership test
At an emergency Liberal caucus meeting held on Monday evening – after Chrystia Freeland’s abrupt exit, Dominic LeBlanc’s hasty instalment at the top of Finance, and renewed calls for Justin Trudeau to step down – the Prime Minister told MPs that he had no intention of resigning. He would, however, take this opportunity to reflect on the day’s events.
If that sounds familiar, it’s because Trudeau has engaged in a lot of reflection this year. He reflected after the Liberals’ stunning by-election defeat in Toronto over the summer (not to mention the defeats in Montreal and Greater Vancouver). He reflected after two dozen MPs pushed for another leader in the fall. He may have even been reflecting way back in January, when Newfoundland and Labrador MP Ken McDonald first floated the possibility of finding someone new. But all that contemplation keeps driving Trudeau to the same conclusion: He will lead Liberals into the next election, which two out of three opposition leaders now insist must be called in early 2025.
Okay, but: Will he really? How does he make the case to Canadians? And with the Liberals trailing distantly in federal polls, what’s the party’s plan for a brighter 2025? I spoke with Globe columnist John Ibbitson to find out.
Let’s start with the biggie: Is there any world in which Trudeau doesn’t run for prime minister in the next election?
Several things might prompt Trudeau to decide to depart. One could be a decision by members of the cabinet to confront him and express their loss of confidence. Another might be a similar declaration by a large number of MPs.
In the depths of the Watergate crisis in 1974, president Richard Nixon’s chief of staff, Alexander Haig, convinced the president he had to resign to avoid being impeached and convicted. Perhaps it will take similar advice from a trusted confidant such as Katie Telford, Trudeau’s chief of staff, or from his friend and new Finance Minister, LeBlanc, to get Trudeau to leave.
What is Trudeau’s pitch for staying on, and has that pitch changed over the past year?
At this point – it’s Tuesday afternoon – we haven’t heard from the Prime Minister directly since Freeland’s resignation. He apparently told his caucus he will consider his options over the Christmas break. The Liberals maintain that they are best qualified to deal with the incoming administration of president-elect Donald Trump, who is threatening to impose punitive tariffs on Canada. Trump mocked Freeland’s departure on social media Monday night, saying she was “totally toxic” and “will not be missed.”
At the start of 2024, when you were on The Decibel, you laid out three big problems for Trudeau’s government to tackle this year, starting with affordability. Inflation and interest rates are down, but everyone I know is still anxious about food and housing prices. Has Trudeau done anything to move the needle on those pressures?
We are all living with the impact of inflation, even if the rate of inflation is easing. And if interest rates are down from a year ago, they remain much higher than they were before the pandemic. The government’s most recent response was to offer a temporary and partial holiday from the GST and the promise of cheques for workers in the new year. It appears that Freeland did not support those measures in private, though she certainly did in public when she was minister.
Trudeau and Freeland announce the GST holiday at Vince's Market in Sharon, Ont., last month.Chris Young/The Canadian Press
The next problem is accountability, and the impression that this government is secretive and closed. It isn’t helping that Parliament has been gridlocked for months because the Liberals won’t hand over documents on a clean-tech fund’s spending scandal.
The fact that Parliament has been paralyzed for months over the Tory filibuster, and yet most people seemed not to have noticed, speaks volumes about the government’s agenda – or lack of one. The public does seem to be aware, however, that the government seems played out.
This might be a good place to remind readers that the Liberals were more than 20 points behind the Conservatives in the polls before this latest crisis. Who knows what future polls will report.
Right, because the last problem the Liberals had to solve is the sense they’ve grown stale. I know Pierre Poilievre wants to “axe the tax” – have the Liberals offered up a clear agenda of what they plan to do with a fourth term?
The Conservatives want to kill the carbon tax, cut government spending and stiffen criminal penalties, among other things. You may not agree with their agenda, but at least they have one. Most of the Liberals’ third-term agenda is on the books, and they don’t seem to have much in the way of ideas for what to do going forward.
The election, if it were held today, would be a referendum on Justin Trudeau’s leadership. And the results would not be pretty.
That election will surely be held soon. So what’s next for the Liberal party? And for Trudeau?
Jagmeet Singh’s NDP appears to finally have had enough of Trudeau. If the PM doesn’t resign before the House returns at the end of January, they may join with the other opposition parties in bringing down the government. Even if that doesn’t happen, the government is likely to be defeated when LeBlanc presents his first budget in the spring.
If Trudeau resigns, then the Liberals will need to choose a new leader. The great question is whether the opposition parties will allow them to, or whether they will force an election. Meanwhile, the 25-per-cent tariffs are set to arrive on Jan. 20, when Trump is inaugurated. It would be awfully nice to have a functioning federal government between now and then.
The Shot
‘I’ve long been a fisherman, but I never imagined I’d be a plankton hunter.’
Joey Angnatok collects samples of water from below the frozen Labrador Sea.Johnny C.Y. Lam/The Globe and Mail
In Canada’s Far North, climate change is accelerating the melting of sea ice, which in turn cues an earlier arrival of plankton – vital nourishment for the entire marine food chain, including Arctic char. To get a better handle on the biological clock of the ocean, Inuit researchers are using locally designed devices to gather precise data. Read more about their work here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: For the first time in decades, Canada saw a drop in the number of primary-care physicians – a worrying trend when 6.5 million Canadians already can’t find a family doctor.
Abroad: Impeached South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol may have been a disaster domestically, but he did quite a bit to improve ties with allies like Canada.
Paid up: From introducing automatic tax-filing to ditching the mortgage stress test, the government’s fiscal update has several pocketbook measures that’ll affect Canadians’ finances.
Squared up: Purists might want to wait till Saturday’s paper, but crossword keeners can get started now on The Globe’s gigantic holiday puzzle from Fraser Simpson.