Good morning. Donald Trump’s bewildering fight with Pope Leo is awfully familiar to Canadians – more on that below, along with Pierre Poilievre’s political future and the traders profiting off prediction markets. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Ontario’s new MAID oversight committee will be diverse and transparent, the Solicitor-General contends
- Two Royal Canadian Navy members are charged in connection with a third sailor’s death
- Pakistan’s army chief visits Tehran in a bid to renew U.S.-Iran talks
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Trump has spent a lot of time over the past year insulting Canada on Truth Social.Alex Brandon/The Associated Press
Bad blood
Trump vs. everyone
The Pope must be perplexed. One cannot imagine that too many people had “President-Pontiff beef” on their political bingo card, but here we are, four days and several Truth Social posts into Donald Trump’s attempted takedown of Leo XIV.
The fracas seems to have started after Leo objected to religious language used by the White House to justify its war in Iran. Pope-like statements such as “blessed are the peacemakers” and “enough of war” apparently further provoked Trump’s ire. He’s attacked the Pope online as “Weak on Nuclear Weapons,” “WEAK on Crime” and “terrible for Foreign Policy.” He also said, twice, “I’m not a fan of Pope Leo” on a Washington tarmac late Sunday night.
But if anyone can empathize with these confusing broadsides, it’s Canadians. Although we might not be in Trump’s crosshairs at this exact moment – unless you count yet another overnight swipe at NATO yesterday – the U.S. President has berated us constantly since returning to the White House last January. How constantly? Globe reporter Tim Shufelt and data editor Dexter McMillan did heroic work sifting through all of Trump’s social media posts and public appearances to map his anti-Canada turn. They discovered that, in those 15 months, Trump insulted this country 720 times.
Shufelt and McMillan distilled Trump’s antipathy into five handy charts, each its own special bummer. Let’s take a closer look at two of them here.
The Globe and Mail
A quick bit of context: In the whole of 2017, Trump mentioned Canada just 58 times – even though our work to renegotiate NAFTA started that summer, ultimately resulting in the USMCA. Over the past year-plus, he’s had more to say about how we’re all a bunch of cheats, subsidized by the U.S. and ripping them off through the very trade deal that Trump signed into law.
The annexation talk covers off some of his preferred insults: “Governor Trudeau,” “Governor Carney,” the whole business about an “imaginary” or “artificial border” and, of course, references to the “51st state.” He also frequently accuses Canadian industries of unfair dealings, especially our auto sector, forestry, steel and aluminum, dairy and banks. (Trump seems to think U.S. banks can’t do business here. They can.)
But no threat has been wielded as often as tariffs, which will come as zero surprise. After all, “tariffs is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary,” Trump said hours after his January inauguration, “because tariffs are going to make us rich as hell.”
The Globe and Mail
Actually, Trump’s tariffs on Canada aren’t making the U.S. rich as hell, but we’ll get to that. First, let’s recap his assorted promises to hike the rates.
Trump pledged blanket 10-per-cent tariffs on U.S. imports while out on the campaign trail, then raised it to 25 per cent on all Canadian goods at the start of his second term. He bumped up the general tariff rate to 35 per cent over the non-existent fentanyl problem at our border, then warned of a 10-per-cent increase after Ontario aired its Reagan-quoting, anti-tariff ad. He dangled another 10-per-cent threat over any country, Canada included, that opposed a U.S. takeover of Greenland. Then he went nuclear after Canada and China agreed to expand trade access, threatening 100-per-cent tariffs on all our exports to the States.
Here’s the catch: Because Trump’s tariffs exclude USMCA-compliant trade, the effective rate on Canadian goods has never exceeded 5 per cent. In fact, it’s sitting at just 3.25 per cent. That’s a number that Trump hasn’t once managed to mention, but perhaps he’s simply been too distracted by his beef with the Pope.
The Shot
‘This funding, while critical, only scratches the surface.’
Internally displaced people at the Al Heshan camp in Port Sudan, Sudan.Bernat Armangue/The Associated Press
Canada pledged $120-million in aid for Sudan and its neighbours as the war enters its fourth year – more assistance than in 2025, though not as much as in 2024, and far from what’s urgently needed. Read more here about the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: Conservative MPs assured reporters that Pierre Poilievre’s leadership is secure, despite the role their party played in building the new Liberal majority.
Abroad: As Dubai struggles to keep talent and capital from leaving the city as a result of the Iran war, Hong Kong is positioning itself as a safer, more stable financial hub.
Bets: About 71 per cent of all Polymarket gamblers lose money, while a tiny group of skilled traders reap more than 80 per cent of all gains on the prediction market.
Bans: The federal government said it was seriously considering barring children under 16 from accessing social media accounts.
Homes: Canada’s national real estate organization downgraded its sales and price forecast for the year, as higher mortgage rates weigh on prospective buyers.
Moon: No wonder the Artemis crew captured such awesome pictures – the four astronauts got 20 hours of special training on taking photos in space.
Note: Yesterday’s newsletter said India froze its electoral boundaries for the second time in 2021; it was in 2001.