By-elections will be held Aug. 31 in the British Columbia riding of North Vancouver–Capilano, the Toronto seat of Beaches–East York and Chicoutimi–Le Fjord in Quebec’s Saguenay regionJeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
Prime Minister Mark Carney is hoping to shore up his government’s slim majority by calling three by-elections before the House of Commons resumes this fall, including a Quebec seat the Liberals will seek to flip from the Conservatives.
In a news release Sunday, the Prime Minister announced that by-elections will be held Aug. 31 in the British Columbia riding of North Vancouver–Capilano, the Toronto seat of Beaches–East York and Chicoutimi–Le Fjord in Quebec’s Saguenay region.
With another four seats already or soon to be vacated, several held by opposition MPs, the by-elections could widen the Liberals’ majority heading into the fall sitting of Parliament.
Two of the campaigns will be held in safe Liberal ridings. Former minister Jonathan Wilkinson resigned his B.C. seat after being appointed Canada’s Ambassador to the European Union in April, while Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, also a one-time minister, resigned his Toronto seat earlier this month.
But Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, held by former Conservative MP Richard Martel since 2018, offers the Liberals a chance to capitalize on Mr. Carney’s popularity as the Conservatives lag in the polls.
Mr. Carney appointed Mr. Martel to the Senate earlier this month. Poll aggregator 338Canada currently lists the riding as a toss-up between the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc Québécois.
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“It’s actually a chance to pick up a seat,” said polling analyst Éric Grenier, creator of The Writ. “And it seems to have been part of their calculations, considering that they offered Martel a Senate seat.”
Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, a heavily francophone riding that includes part of the city of Saguenay, has changed allegiances several times over the last two decades. It was held by the Bloc from 2004 to 2011, but voted NDP during the Orange Wave and flipped to the Liberals in 2015. Mr. Martel, a well-known hockey coach, was recruited by the Conservatives as a star candidate and claimed the riding in a 2018 by-election.
A Liberal win there would signal the party’s strength in Quebec, despite Mr. Carney’s wobbly French and occasional missteps that have appeared “out of touch” with the province, Mr. Grenier said. “It’s not a Montreal riding, it’s not a suburban riding. It’s a very francophone, nationalist kind of seat.”
He added it would be “another blow” to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who has lost four MPs who’ve crossed the floor to join the Liberals since last fall.
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In April, Mr. Carney secured a majority government when the Liberals swept three by-elections, including a tight race in Terrebonne, a suburb of Montreal that had been a Bloc Québécois stronghold.
Those wins brought the Liberals to 174 seats, two more than the 172-seat threshold for a majority. With the expected departure of former environment minister Steven Guilbeault later this summer, the Liberals need to win at least one of the three by-elections to retain more than half the seats in the House of Commons.
But other vacancies will work in the Liberals’ favour by shrinking the opposition parties’ ranks, at least temporarily. Former NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice will resign his Montreal riding to run for a provincial seat in the Quebec election this fall. Saskatchewan Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall will also step down on Aug. 31.
Meanwhile, another Quebec riding has also been vacated by Bloc MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay, who is running for the Parti Québécois in the Quebec election. But Mr. Carney has opted to not yet call a by-election in that riding, a fairly safe Bloc seat.
If the Liberals delay calling by-elections for the remaining four vacant seats until after the Quebec election in October, Mr. Grenier said, “they’re setting themselves up to have a wider majority in the fall.”
Mr. Grenier said Mr. Carney’s decision not to call a vote in the other vacant Quebec seat could also give the Liberals an advantage over the Bloc in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord. Parties have a spending limit based on the number of ridings in which they run candidates, but they can spend that money however they like.
In this case, the Liberals could pour money from all three by-elections into the Quebec campaign, he said, while the Bloc’s spending limit would be considerably lower because the party doesn’t run candidates outside Quebec.
On Sunday, Bloc Leader Yves François Blanchet said Mr. Carney’s decision to hold the by-election campaigns during the summer shows a “total disregard for democratic debate.”
“He doesn’t want people to dwell on his record,” Mr. Blanchet said in a statement.
The Liberals have recently named their candidates for all three seats, including Mr. Carney’s former deputy chief of staff, Braeden Caley, in the B.C. riding.
The party’s candidate in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord is Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer and former president of an organization representing Quebec milk producers. The Bloc candidate in the riding, Caroline Dubé, was announced Sunday, as was Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault.
The Liberal candidate in Beaches–East York is Tanveer Shahnawaz, who previously managed Mr. Erskine-Smith’s constituency office. The Conservatives have yet to announce a candidate in the riding, and did not immediately respond to a request for comment Sunday. Their candidate in North Vancouver–Capilano is lawyer Stephen Curran.
Mr. Grenier said the Toronto riding will likely be an easy win for the Liberals, but it will also be a test of the NDP’s strength under new Leader Avi Lewis.
“It’s the kind of riding where they should put up a respectable result,” he said. “And if the NDP is ever going to win seats in Toronto again, they should be able to put up at least something in Beaches–East York."