Progressive Conservatives’ victory in Newfoundland casts doubt on future of proposed Quebec energy deal

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Newfoundland and Labrador’s Progressive Conservatives won a slim majority over the incumbent Liberals in Tuesday’s provincial election, a result that casts doubt on the future of a proposed multibillion-dollar energy deal with Quebec.

Tony Wakeham’s Tories won 21 of the province’s 40 ridings, a gain of seven seats, after a nail-biting race that see-sawed as the final ballots were counted on Tuesday evening.

The Liberals, led by John Hogan, were elected in 15 ridings, while Jim Dinn’s New Democrats doubled their seat count to two. Voters also returned two independents to the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly.

The Tories won the popular vote with 44.37 per cent of votes cast, compared with 43.43 per cent for the Liberals.

In a postelection speech, Mr. Wakeham said he won the trust of voters by focusing on health care, crime and the cost of living.

He also addressed a major source of controversy – the memorandum of understanding brokered by the Liberals that would significantly raise the rate Hydro-Québec pays for power from the Churchill Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador, and terminate the existing contract 16 years earlier than expected.

How Quebec and Newfoundland overcame a century of hurt to reach a new deal on Churchill Falls

The proposed deal has been touted by the Liberals as injecting $225-billion into Newfoundland’s treasury over 50 years, providing a desperately needed economic bump for the province with the largest per capita debt in the country.

Mr. Wakeham, a former health care bureaucrat, has criticized what he says is a lack of transparency around the proposed hydro deal with Quebec, and Mr. Hogan’s decision to endorse that deal. He has called for the tentative agreement to be reviewed by an independent third party and then subjected to a referendum.

“I will demand a true, independent review that will share its conclusions with the public,” Mr. Wakeham said Tuesday. “I will use that review to fix this deal or demand a better one. Given the generational stakes, I will not sign any deal that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians do not approve in a referendum.”

Kelly Blidook, an associate professor of political science at Memorial University, commended the idea of an independent review, adding that the Liberals may have remained in power if they had simply done the same thing. But he said Mr. Wakeham’s stand now throws into question the timing of negotiations between Newfoundland and Quebec. A deadline of April, 2026, had been set for final agreements to be signed.

“Does this mean negotiations stop while that review is ongoing?” Prof. Blidook said. “Do we push the timelines back or do we do something sort of small and quick and dirty?”

As for Mr. Wakeham’s promise of a referendum, Prof. Blidook called it “bonkers,” explaining that the framing of the question and whether it’s binding or simply advisory will be messy for government to sort out.

In his view, the proposed deal with Quebec is “really up in the air,” he said.

Opinion: Newfoundlanders can’t afford to say no to a hydro deal with Quebec

The PC victory reflects momentum that started in the spring federal election, when the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre won three ridings in rural Newfoundland – a gain of two seats – despite the federal Liberals’ election win under Prime Minister Mark Carney.

In this election, Prof. Blidook said, the federal Conservatives and the provincial PCs were working more closely together than they had historically, going back to the era of former PC premier Danny Williams, who infamously launched an Anything But Conservative campaign before the 2008 federal vote.

The two parties have seen a reconciliation, and many campaign volunteers now work on behalf of both the federal and provincial parties, Prof. Blidook said.

“I think part of it is actually the effectiveness of Pierre Poilievre in campaigning against Justin Trudeau,” he said, adding, “I think it really did, at least here, galvanize dislike of Liberals federally.”

He said the three federal blue seats were an opportunity for the provincial PCs and they capitalized on it, winning ridings in the central and western areas of the island, to achieve a majority government.

In a social-media post, Mr. Poilievre congratulated Mr. Wakeham while also promoting his own political agenda.

“Can’t wait to work with you to boost take-home pay, cut inflation and taxes, unlock oil output, protect firearms owners, and lock up criminals for a safe, affordable life for everyone on The Rock,” he wrote on Tuesday.

Mr. Carney also congratulated the premier-designate in a social-media statement, saying he looks forward to working together to build a strong Canada. He also thanked Mr. Hogan for his dedicated service as premier.

With a report from The Canadian Press