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GBPNZD is reversing quite sharply to the downside. Price has overlapped the 2.27 level and also broke through the lower line of the base channel, which confirms that we are likely in a wave three selloff. If that is the case, then we know that wave three is usually the strongest part of the move and can unfold as part of a higher degree bearish impulse.With that in mind, more weakness can be expected. Impulses unfold in five waves, so after a possible wave four recovery, which may retest the base channel resistance line, the pair could see another push lower. That would represent wave five, potentially heading toward the 2.2130 area in 2026.
Gold and silver plunged in the aftermath of the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. What gives?
Crude oil is also higher and may stay supported after Iran warned that ships should not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20% of global oil supply moves through this channel.The longer disruption risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains, the longer oil can stay elevated and that feeds into higher prices and inflation, some may call it stagflation. This matters because the longer oil stays bullish, the higher the recession risk becomes. On the other hand, the sooner oil tops and pulls back, the better for equities. OPEC is already discussing increasing production in an attempt to limit price spikes.Higher energy prices also make central banks more cautious. Rate cuts could be delayed and that can keep stocks in a corrective phase for now.
How can safe-haven demand accompany declines in gold stocks?
USDCAD enters the new trading week at a technically and fundamentally sensitive juncture. The pair continues to be driven by oil prices, interest rate differentials, and shifts in global risk sentiment. Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions escalated following coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, including reports of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Because Iran is a major oil producer and sits near the Strait of Hormuz, developments in the region carry implications for energy markets and, by extension, the Canadian dollar. As markets reopen, attention is likely to focus on how crude oil, safe haven demand, and key technical levels interact around the 2026 yearly VWAP and the 1.35 to 1.392 range.
Cable has seen a pretty nice reversal after hitting a new high around 1.3869, moved above the 2025 high, before the market turned lower. Notice that this current weakness has already extended below the lower trend line support connected from the November 2025 lows, which also acted as resistance around 1.3560 a few sessions back. So apparently we are now in a stage where we could see more weakness, possibly lower into wave C/3 of a new sequence. Alternatively, it could be a fifth wave of a leading diagonal, but even in that case we still see room toward the 1.3350 level that we discussed in the last update.
It looks like it's 2008 all over again...
For the precious metals market to move lower once again - as expected.
We present our daily playbook for forex and currencies
The key question is whether we are looking at a leading diagonal in wave one, which would allow for much lower levels later in wave C, or whether this is an ending diagonal in wave C itself, which would point to a sharp reversal. In either case, weakness may be limited over the coming weeks as price approaches the September 2024 swing low support.
We present our day session playbook for a basket of currencies the USD measures against.
when looking at the intraday chart, there is still room for another leg down after wave four rally 97.44 resistance zone, which would be a key area to watch for a potential continuation lower and completion of the sequence somewhere near 95
GBPJPY has confirmed a bullish breakout above a key long-term resistance, with Elliott Wave structure pointing to further upside toward the 215–220 zone.
Over the past few months, USDNOK traded within a wave 4 corrective phase. Price action has now turned lower again and is approaching prior lows, signaling the anticipated wave 5 decline. This move can represent the final leg of a larger leading diagonal formation, completing wave A/1. That said, there is still room for additional weakness within wave 5, with downside potential toward the 9.50–9.30 area near the lower diagonal line. This zone may act as temporary support, from where the pair could begin recovering into a higher-degree wave B/2 corrective bounce.
EURUSD is breaking higher from a wave IV triangle, signaling the start of projected wave V. The impulsive rise on the 4-hour chart suggests wave 3 is underway, pointing to further upside while allowing for a potential wave 4 pullback.
Good morning, traders! We’ve seen huge volatility at the start of the week, so there’s a lot to cover today. Grega is away, so please be patient with the updates. Regarding the US dollar, we know where the flow is, so there is still room for further weakness after any pullbacks (watch today’s gaps). Stocks saw an intraday spike lower, which I view as a correction and solid support within the broader uptrend, so risk-on sentiment remains intact for now. Despite the sharp declines on some XXXJPY cross pairs, USDJPY has likely turned bearish, while other XXXJPY crosses may soon stabilize and see more upside. Metals continue to push strongly higher and, in the current risk-on environment, they can remain in a bullish trend—though we should still watch for new corrections. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is coming strongly lower, which looks like subwave (iii) of “iii” within an ongoing five-wave bearish impulse in wave 3. This suggests bearish continuation, but watch for a wave “iv” pullback that could fill the gap.
The Australian dollar is rallying strongly after impressive jobs data, moving past the recent wave 2 correction. With the bullish wave 3 underway and the 0.6728 invalidation level holding, further upside is expected, though a minor subwave iv pullback may occur before continuation.
Read how University of Cambridge used CME Group FX option data to demonstrate the predictability of large currency moves and its applicability to FX traders.
It seems that markets are taking the response from European leaders seriously, who apparently are not willing to give up easily on Greenland, and this is clearly evident on the price charts. The USD is coming down aggressively, and if DXY breaks the trendline support, then get ready for some bigger moves ahead. NZD, EUR, and GBP are looking strong vs USD.
Educational and Actionable information using Fibonacci and W.D. Gann analysis.
EUR/USD continues to trade within a well-defined range between 1.18 and 1.148, reflecting an ongoing tug-of-war between U.S. resilience and Eurozone fragility. Strong U.S. labor and spending data have kept the Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts, underpinning the dollar, while the ECB faces pressure to support stagnating growth. With macro headlines—Fed guidance, ECB rhetoric, and global risk sentiment—driving sharp but contained rotations, the pair remains in equilibrium. Until a clear policy or growth divergence emerges, traders should expect balanced conditions punctuated by responsive price action at key technical levels.
In 2025, the Bank for International Settlements updated its Triennial Central Bank Survey of FX markets. What are the five trends that could shape the FX landscape in 2026?
Japanese Yen futures are trading near a critical long term support zone as persistent macro headwinds continue to pressure the currency. Wide rate differentials, ongoing carry trade dynamics, and cautious Bank of Japan policy have kept the Yen on the defensive, even as intervention risk remains elevated. With 6J pressing the lower boundary of a multi year range and key technical levels coming into focus, the next few weeks may determine whether this move resolves as another range rotation or the start of a more meaningful structural shift.
Another great day for those that bought silver for the investment and insurance parts of their capital. Silver soared, while gold and miners paused – and perhaps topped.
Markets are watching today’s US inflation report closely, as a softer CPI could pressure the dollar while a hotter reading may trigger a rebound toward key resistance levels.