07/13/2026 ValuEngine Weekly Market Summary & Commentary
Weekly Market Recap – Week Ending July 10, 2026
Markets remained mixed last week, with sector leadership continuing to rotate beneath a relatively stable broader market. The S&P 500 edged up 0.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 and small caps declined 1.07% and 1.33%, respectively. Energy was the clear standout, surging 5.78%, followed by gains in Communication Services, Consumer Staples, Real Estate and Utilities, while Industrials and Materials posted the steepest declines. Among individual stocks, Bayer (BAYRY) led the broader screen with a 35.63% 30-day gain, while Moderna (MRNA) topped the healthcare list with an advance of 29.81%.
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Strategy Note:
The beginning of the second half of 2026 has either been off to a promising or disappoint start, depending upon which market segment and industry sector you are studying.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) managed a positive gain, whereas tech-heavy, small-cap, and mid-cap spaces pulled back over the first 7 days of July. For example,
SPY (S&P 500): +$8.18 (+1.10%);
DIA (DJIA): +$3.39 (+0.65%);
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): -$10.89 (-1.48%);
IWM (Russell 2000 – small cap): -$4.46 (-1.48%);
MDY (S&P MidCap 400 – midcap): -$13.52 (-1.92%).
Interestingly with QQQ down 1.5%, 0.7% gain by DIA and 1.1% gain by SPY, we would normally expect value stocks to have had a better week than growth stocks. Indeed, the June theme of value rotation has been echoed by experts to begin the month. Add the fact that StateStreet Select Sector SPDR Technology (XLK) was down 2.5%, by far the worst of the three Sector SPDRs, showing any decline would add to that supposition. As measured by Vanguard ETFs, however, we’d be wrong. While Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) was close to DIA with a gain of 0.6%, Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) gained 1.5%, even topping SPY.
This is symptomatic of an unusual dichotomy that becomes clearer when we include the 11 StateStreet Select Sector SPDRs . Although technology sentiment may have been driven down somewhat by higher inflationary expectation in tandem with a stronger possibility of an inverted yield curve, the biggest underlying reason has to with XLK’s large semiconductor stocks Intel (INTC), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). The primary catalyst was Samsung’s preliminary Q2 earnings release on Tuesday, July 7. Although Samsung reported an immense 19-fold (1,800%) explosion in operating profits to roughly $58.4 billion driven by the AI memory boom, its actual forward-looking guidance and underlying metrics failed to satisfy Wall Street’s exceptionally high expectations for sustained AI infrastructure demand. AMAT fell 17% and INTC fell 21% while AMD fell 4% in what some experts stated was an over-correction. Our forecast model agrees. All three stocks are rated 5.
On the other end of the spectrum of Select Sector SPDRs, communications (XLC) led the entire group of 11 sectors with a 4.2% gain. The biggest contributors were META platforms with a gain of 19% and Netflix (NFLX) with a gain of 3%. Both META and NFLX are rated by our prediction model as 3 (Hold) as they are expected to perform in line with the market.
The second largest sector SPDR gain came from finance (XLF), up 3.9%. The largest gains were registered by Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM). Probably not coincidentally, all are expected to help kick off 2nd quarter earning seasons with reports this week. Our outlook is also for positive reports. GS is rated 5 while BAC and MS are rated 4 (Buy).
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