Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While acknowledging recent volatility and downward price movements, precious metals equity analysts at National Bank Financial continue to see “a favourable market backdrop for precious metal prices through the year and into 2027 as support from key drivers remains intact, including rising levels of sovereign debt, softer USD and strong physical demand from Central Banks/stablecoins.”
Ahead of second-quarter earnings season in the sector, the group updated their projections for both the quarter and the near-term future to align with actual metal prices of US$4,508 per ounce of gold and US$73 per ounce of silver for the period, which follow quarter-over-quarter declines of 8 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively. They also adjusted their price assumptions for the remainder of 2026 to US$4,300/oz for gold (was US$5,000/oz)and US$67.50/oz for silver (was US$80/oz). Their long-term projections of US$3,200 and US$42, respectively, did not change.
“Higher oil prices in Q2 are expected to weigh modestly on sector margins through increased diesel, freight and consumables costs, particularly for fuel-intensive open pit or genset-powered mines. Oil markets appear to be loosening into H2/26, suggesting cost pressures should moderate and provide some relief to operating margins later this year; nevertheless, sustained higher costs stemming from prolonged unrest in the Middle East could lead to upward cost guidance revisions.”
“Some early signs of risks to guidance: The impact of the Barnat wall movement at Canadian Malartic has led to estimates for both AEM and OR at the lower end of respective guidance ranges. Per prior messaging, AGI to provide updated Young Davidson guidance following the seismic event in June. We expect ELD to provide a first look at McIlvenna Bay guidance following on-time delivery of first concentrate in June. BTO regional permits remain outstanding, and we look for an update with Q2 reporting, potentially a shift to the lower end of the existing guidance. At FVI, we see risks of AISC falling outside the original guided range given accelerated stripping at Seguéla and higher corporate costs vs. plan.”
With the revisions to their forecasts for the majority of the companies in their coverage universe, the analysts made adjustments to their target prices for stocks, which were largely lower. For senior producers, their changes are:
- Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T, “outperform”) to $275 from $350. The average on the Street is $330.91, according to LSEG data.
- Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX-T, “outperform”) to $67.50 from $75. Average: $79.93.
- B2Gold Corp. (BTO-T, “outperform”) to $9.75 from $10.70. Average: $8.26.
- Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV-T, “outperform”) to $92 from $116. Average: $101.71.
- Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T, “outperform”) to $50 from $57.50. Average: $59.82.
- Newmont Corp. (NEM-N, “sector perform”) to US$125 from US$140. Average: US$141.47.
“Consensus estimates remain fluid, and we expect the delta between NBCM Estimates vs. Consensus to narrow as Street estimates are updated with lower realized precious metal prices throughout the quarter,” the analysts said. “Overall, with respect to Q2/26 reporting, based on material differences between our estimates, pending catalysts or analyst views, we are constructive on ARTG and MTA and cautious on AEM, BTO, EQX, HL, ORE and RGLD.”
National Bank Financial’s Shane Nagle and Rabi Nizami predict macroeconomic uncertainty in the copper market will persist, leading to further price volatility.
In a client report released Tuesday previewing second-quarter earnings season, the equity analysts revised their forecasts for their coverage universe to incorporate actual copper prices of US$5.82 per pound for the quarter, which is higher than their previous projection of US$5.50. They also revised their near-term price assumptions to US$6.00 per pound through to the end of 2027, up from US$5.50.
“In Q2/26, copper prices rose to a peak of US$6.42/lb in May largely driven by supply disruptions accentuated by concerns over sulphur and sulphuric acid availability for cathode producers,” they said. “This was followed by a pullback in prices which saw LME copper ending Q2 at US$6.07/lb impacted by strengthening U.S. dollar, inflation concerns and Federal Reserve turning more hawkish. Given the uncertainty about the possible direction of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, we believe higher energy prices, elevated freight costs and weaker business confidence will continue to weigh on global economic growth in the near-term.
“On the supply side, most significant impact on production being anticipated by the market is African SX/EW production, given approximately 24 per cent of the world’s sulfur supply typically travels through the Strait of Hormuz. African SX/EW production accounts for 5 per cent of Global copper supply currently, and while production is likely to be impacted should supply remain constrained, we have yet to see any material impact in refined supply as producers have reacted by lowering acid consumption/recoveries, undertaking residual leaching and procuring acid supply from domestic smelters.”
The analysts emphasized the “unclear” outlook builds on “already challenged manufacturing growth and declining Chinese property sector.”
“We continue to see an improvement in copper supply following the ramp-up and sanctioning of several projects in H2/26. That said, prices have remained supported by U.S. stockpiling, which doesn’t appear to be slowing down, and copper equities are more attractively priced relative to underlying commodity prices than they have been in recent quarters,” they added.
With their forecast revisions, the analysts made a series of adjustments to target prices for stocks in their coverage universe.
- Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T, “outperform”) to $70 from $62.50. The average is $58.38.
- Arizona Metals Corp. (AMC-T, “sector perform”) to 20 cents from 25 cents. Average: 30 cents.
- Champion Iron Ltd. (CIA-T, “outperform”) from $5.75 to $5.50. Average: $5.92.
- Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T, “outperform”) to $16.50 from $14. Average: $17.04.
- Faraday Copper Corp. (FDY-T, “outperform”) to $7.25 from $5.75. Average: $6.42.
- First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T, “outperform”) to $50 from $47. Average: $47.76.
- Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T, “sector perform”) to $38.50 from $40. Average: $44.39.
- Ivanhoe Electric Inc. (IE-T, “outperform”) from $30 to $27. Average: $29.12.
- Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T, “sector perform”) to $42.50 from $43.50. Average: $42.41.
- Marimaca Copper Corp. (MARI-T, “outperform”) from $14 to $13.50. Average: $15.50.
- Osisko Metals Inc. (OM-T, “outperform”) from $2 to $2.25. Average: $2.45.
- Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK-B-T, “sector perform”) to $100 from $92.50. Average: $86.06.
- Trekor Metals Ltd. (TKO-T, “outperform”) from $12 to $13. Average: $13.35.
- Western Copper and Gold Corp. (WRN-T, “outperform””) from $7.50 to $8. Average: $9.07.
TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison upgraded First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T) to a “buy” recommendation from “hold” under the assumption a deal to restart its Cobre Panama mine will be reached by the end of the year.
“Following recent commentary from Panamanian officials and the release of the independent audit, we believe a restart outcome before year-end or early 2027 has become increasingly likely, even if ultimate fiscal terms remain subject to negotiation,” he explained. “We assume a full restart of Cobre in mid-2027 ramping up to full production by 2027 year-end. We have increased our total economic take from the Panama government to 50 per cent from a combination of taxes, profit based royalties, and a potential equity stake from approximately mid-30-per-cent range now. Following these more punitive assumptions, we have lowered our discount rate for Cobre to 8 per cent from 12 per cent, and we now value Cobre at $9.9-billion ($16.00 per share) up from $7.0-billion or $11.05/sh previously.
“Importantly, our constructive view is not solely based on Cobre Panama itself. Rather, it reflects what a restart enables. At full production, we estimate Cobre could generate roughly US$1.5-billion of annual FCF in 2028 (100-per-cent basis), providing substantial flexibility to reduce debt while simultaneously funding the next generation of growth projects. Assuming a successful deal by year-end, and the start of deleveraging next year, we believe investors will increasingly turn their focus towards the Taca Taca Cu-Au development project in Argentina, which has strong project economics and has a good chance to attract partnership interest, in our view.”
In justifying his rating change, Mr. Hutchison said he also expects financial conditions to improve following the quarter.
“We expect Q2/26 to be the turning point for FM, with operational improvements underway and hedges rolling off,” he said. “The ramp of the Kansanshi S3 expansion has gone well to date, which will help drive higher production over the next two years as more fresh ore is fed to the mill. Meanwhile, hedge losses that have weighed on earnings in previous quarters are expected to roll off in the second half of the year, improving exposure to elevated copper prices, and the company is also expected to close the sale of Las Cruces and Cayeli shortly. ”
His target jumped to $47 from $42. The average target on the Street is $47.76.
“The company’s improved liquidity position and the availability of other potential levers has provided breathing room for management to reach a potential resolution with all stakeholders on the Cobre Panama mine. Management has made positive progress on the restart of the mine with the final environmental audit now completed and our expectation of a final decision by Q1/27,” he concluded.
Concurrent with his First Quantum upgrade, Mr. James maintained his “constructive” view on both copper and copper equities.
“Near-term macro concerns have overshadowed what remains a fundamentally attractive setup characterized by elevated prices, tight concentrate markets, growing electrification demand, and an insufficient pipeline of new projects,” he said in a quarterly earnings preview. “While volatility is likely to persist as investors weigh tariff outcomes and global growth expectations, we believe the market continues to underestimate the difficulty of delivering sufficient new supply over the coming decade.
“We expect mine-site costs to reflect the impact of the Iran conflict during Q2. Elevated energy prices, higher shipping costs, and disruption across critical supply chains likely pressured operating costs as the quarter progressed. Sulphuric acid markets were particularly affected, with spot prices rising sharply amid concerns over sulphur availability and shipping disruptions, while diesel, explosives and other energy-linked consumables also experienced inflationary pressure. While the magnitude of the impact will vary by operation and geography, we expect most producers to report some degree of cost inflation relative to Q1, with leach operations and producers dependent on imported sulphuric acid particularly exposed. Conversely, we expect mines such as Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula to benefit from elevated acid prices, as evident in their recent production report which highlighted July spot prices of $840/t.”
Mr. James emphasized the second quarter marks the third consecutive quarter of record quarterly copper prices, “which should support solid margins and FCF, despite cost pressures from lower gold prices q/q and higher diesel and sulphuric acid costs.”
“We have increased our near-term copper prices to reflect supply tightness while raising our long-term uranium price forecasts to $95/lb, reflecting positive signals in the term market,” he said.
Mr. James’s target changes are:
- Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T, “hold”) to $60 from $55. The average is $58.38.
- Cameco Corp. (ALS-T, “buy”) to $190 from $185. The average is $177.72.
- Champion Iron Ltd. (CIA-T, “buy”) from $5 to $6.50. Average: $5.92.
- Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T, “hold”) to $44 from $47. Average: $48.75
- Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T, ”buy") to $43 from $44. Average: $42.41.
- Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK-B-T, “hold”) to $89 from $82. Average: $86.06.
- Trekor Metals Ltd (TKO-T, “buy”) to $13 from $12. Average: $13.35.
“Our top picks are Hudbay, Lundin, and Cameco,” he said.
TD Cowen analyst Sean Steuart expects Canadian forest products companies to report improving results in the approaching earnings season on both a quarter-over-quarter and month-over-month basis, seeing lumber margins “come back to life.”
“Input and freight cost inflation was pronounced in Q2, but rising softwood lumber and containerboard prices are expected to provide an offset,” he said in a client report. “We are increasing 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates for most names to reflect higher commodity price and lower CAD forecasts. WFG is our revised top pick.”
“Key Q2/26 themes: 1) Positive q/q earnings momentum for lumber producers and likely upward revisions to near-term consensus estimates. The Q2/26 average USD-denominated composite lumber price increased 13-per-cent q/q to its highest level since Q3/22, led by positive momentum for utility grades and wider dimensions in the U.S. South. 2) Manageable cost inflation. In most cases, we believe that the margin impact will be muted. 3) Continued focus on balance sheet preservation.”
The analyst made changes to his forecast to reflect a number of factors: “1) Higher lumber prices, with average annual increases of 1-2 per cent in 2026 and 3-6 per cent in 2027, reflecting supply-driven gains (downtime plus import relief) that have exceeded expectations. 2) Lower average OSB and pulp prices (both commodities remain oversupplied amid weak demand). 3) Minimal volume adjustments. 4) A slightly weaker Canadian dollar forecast (net positive for most equities). Cumulative expected year-over-year EBITDA growth for our coverage set is 13 per cent in 2026 and 33 per cent in 2027 (off a low base).”
With that update, he tweaked his target prices for nine of the 13 companies in the sector. Those are:
- Adentra Inc. (ADEN-T, “buy”) to $43 from $42. The average is $49.75.
- Cascades Inc. (CAS-T, “buy”) to $15 from $13. Average: $13.38.
- Canfor Corp. (CFP-T, “buy”) to $18 from $16. Average: $15.56.
- Doman Building Materials Group Ltd. (DBM-T, “buy”) to $13 from $12. Average: $12.05.
- Interfor Corp. (IFP-T, “hold”) to $14 from $10. Average: $12.28.
- KP Tissue Inc. (KPT-T, “hold”) to $14 from $12. Average: $12.
- Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (LPX-N, “buy”) to US$90 from US$86. Average: US$89.86.
- Mercer International Inc. (MERC-Q, “sell”) to 40 US cents from 50 US cents. Average: US$1
- Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF-T, “hold”) to $19 from $17. Average: $14.50.
- West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG-N/WFG-T) to US$90 from US$86. Average: US$81.95.
Seeing its flagship Phoenix project “set to become Canada’s next uranium mine to enter production and an extensive presence in the infrastructure-rich Eastern Athabasca Basin,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Andrew Wong initiated coverage of Toronto-based Denison Mines Corp. (DML-T) with an “outperform” recommendation.
“Phoenix has a potentially low-cost profile utilizing low-capex ISR mining, with construction underpinned by a strong balance sheet,” he said. “We think Denison is well-positioned to benefit from a structural uranium deficit through the 2030s, with multiple projects in development through the next decade. We apply a Speculative Risk qualifier due to first-of-kind uncertainty deploying ISR in the Athabasca.”
Mr. Wong is currently projecting first production at Phoenix by mid-2029, which is slightly behind management’s mid-2028 target. He attributed that gap to “typical technical challenges and delays with new mining projects, but there is room for execution upside.”
“First-of-kind ISR (in-situ recovery) in Athabasca, innovative but carries execution risk: Phoenix will be the first high-grade ISR uranium mine in Canada, deploying artificial ground freezing and in-situ recovery with no direct Athabasca precedent,” he said. “We applaud Denison for developing ISR for use in the Athabasca, unlocking potential value in assets that are difficult to mine economically via conventional methods. Denison successfully conducted extensive field tests and developed permeability tools to aid recovery, but the method remains untested for consistent production and recoveries across variable hydrology remains an uncertainty.
“Sequenced asset base and strong financial position supports a longterm production runway: Beyond Phoenix, Denison has a development pipeline that could sustain annual production at 7-10Mlbs through the next decade, with Gryphon expected in the early-to-mid 2030s, followed by the earlier-stage Midwest and Waterbury projects. Denison entered Phoenix construction with approximately $670-million in cash, physical uranium, and investments, comfortably covering the post-FID Phoenix capex estimate ($600-million) and we see Gryphon as fundable from Phoenix cash flows. We forecast the uranium market remains tight through the early-2030s before entering a structural deficit by the mid-2030s, and production from Denison coincides well with the need for more uranium.”
Mr. Wong set a target of $6 per share, which is 51 cents under the average on the Street.
In other analyst actions:
* In a client report Mapping a Widening Moat, National Bank Financial’s Doug Taylor initiated coverage of The Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSGX-Q, DSG-T) with an “outperform” rating and US$95 target. The average is US$108.33.
“While Descartes has demonstrated a substantial track record of delivering strong shareholder returns through a combination of consistent high single-digit organic growth and effective M&A execution, its share price has languished alongside most software peers amidst the current AI scrutiny,” said Mr. Taylor. “Descartes’ own trading multiple has reset back to 15 times NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA, levels not seen in over 10 years.
“We view this as an opportunity given: * Supply chain pressures faced by end market participants remain constant and ever-changing, arguing for process modernization that drives demand for Descartes’ solutions. Organic growth has ticked higher in recent quarters; * Descartes’ offering has both network elements and volume-based pricing that insulates it from pressure on traditional seat-based models. * The Company’s balance sheet is in a strong position to compound organic growth with further M&A. With $350-million in pro forma cash, no debt and strong ongoing cash flow conversion, there remains significant M&A optionality. Descartes has a stellar track record of generating strong returns on acquisitions to date.”
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen raised his targets for Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) to $198 from $170 and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T) to $140 from $125, keeping “outperform” ratings for both. The averages are $172.58 and $137.52, respectively.
“Canadian rail traffic exceeded expectations (again) in 2Q26, driven by sustained Grain, Energy/Chemicals and Automotive growth, which more than offset weakness in Coal, Forestry and a still-muted Intermodal recovery at CN,” said Mr. Hansen. “Most notably, traffic strengthened through June (vs. a typical seasonal fade), allowing both Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) to outperform expectations, with RTMs advancing up 5.1 per cent year-over-year and 3.7 per cent year-over-year, respectively. CN volume also outperformed CP for the third consecutive quarter, making its FY26 volume guide look increasingly conservative, in our view. Both stocks outperformed accordingly.
“Looking forward, we remain constructive on both carriers. Despite looming CUSMA negotiations, we continue to see a path to LSD-MSD FY26 traffic growth, supported by: 1) sustained bulk tailwinds (grain, potash); 2) advancing ‘self-help’ initiatives; 3) incremental truck-to-rail conversion; 4) Canadian natural resource development tailwinds; & 5) the improving economic/freight outlook south of the border (Canada still muted). Falling fuel and FX rates are also expected to introduce incremental earnings tailwinds through 2H26.”
* Seeing “broadly positive” end market trends ahead of its second-quarter financial report on Aug. 10, National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen raised his target for Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T) to $109 from $108, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average target is $117.33.
“The outlook for growth for Cargojet remains broadly positive,” he said. “Domestic network revenue was flattish year-over-year in Q1, but we expect market conditions to remain steady. ACMI revenue (mainly with DHL) has faced tough comps in recent quarters as Cargojet shifted flying to more shorter-haul routes, but DHL has recently expressed a more optimistic view on growth which could benefit Cargojet later this year and into 2027. For Q2/26 and the remainder of the year, the main source of growth for Cargojet will come from its All-in charter revenue where a contract serving LATAM and Caribbean markets ramped early this year.”
* TD Cowen’s Tim James raised his FirstService Corp. (FSV-Q, FSV-T) target to US$207 from US$204 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$188.20.
“We expect roofing revenue growth (up 5.8 per cent year-over-year), reiteration of full-year outlook, and conference call discussion regarding recent share buybacks to support stock and lay groundwork for gradual move higher. Increasing attention to limited trade/tariff exposure, consumer spending resiliency and weather related upside positive for share price,” he said.
* CIBC’s Dean Wilkinson initiated coverage of Mainstreet Equity Corp. (MEQ-T) with a “neutral” rating and $210 target. The average is $225.
“MEQ is a Western Canada-focused rental apartment owner-operator that has, over the better part of the past 26 years, built a reputation for creating value in the purest sense of real estate: acquiring underperforming mid-market multifamily assets, often below replacement cost, and then rolling up its sleeves to drive value through renovation, repositioning, and hands-on property management,” he said. “Unlike apartment REITs, MEQ is more of a growth vehicle than an income vehicle.
“We believe the durability of that value-add platform is a key differentiator, supporting high-single to low-double-digit same-asset NOI growth through 2027—though this is now balanced against a period of vacancy normalization and a valuation that, in our view, already captures a portion of the embedded upside. This leads us to a Neutral rating, reflecting a valuation that is broadly in line with peers, and a more challenging near-term macro environment (an issue not unique to MEQ).”
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies hiked his Mattr Ltd. (MATR-T) target to a Street high of $23 from $15.25 with a “buy” rating. The average is $14.56.
“MATR pre-announced a strong 2Q26 with adjusted EBITDA of $60-65-million, 45 per cent above consensus ($43-million) and 46 per cent above our prior estimate, on revenue of $390-400-million (19.5 per cent above consensus). We do not believe this was a demand pull-forward, and we expect a step change in year-over-year financial performance from here. As a result, we are raising 26E and 27E EBITDA by 20.6 per cent and 19.5 per cent to $199-million and $226-million, respectively. This is a HALO [Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence] name at an operational inflection point, and we expect it to perform well in 2H26E,” said Mr. Gillies.
* National Bank Financial’s Andrew Dusome initiated coverage of Talon Metals Corp. (TLO-T) with an “outperform” rating and $8 target, which is $1 under the average.
“Our Outperform rating is supported by the combination of the current production base at Eagle and the strong upside we see at the Tamarack Project to provide meaningful nickel and copper production growth. With the Eagle acquisition, Talon now has ongoing cash flow (CF) generation to support continued exploration as well as a workforce of proven mine builders and operators, which in our view, de-risks Tamarack development. Our Outperform rating is also supported by the strategic relationships that Talon has developed with the U.S. Government through several government grants and strong shareholder support from Lundin Mining as the cornerstone shareholder,” said Mr. Dusome.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Amr Ezzat assumed coverage of 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T) with a “buy” rating and $48 target, matching the average and rising from the firm’s $43 target previously.
“Our positive view on 5N Plus reflects considerably more than near-term earnings expectations,” he said. “Over the past decade, management has assembled a portfolio of businesses that serve attractive end markets, occupy strategically important positions within customer value chains and benefit from characteristics that are difficult to replicate. Longer customer relationships, high qualification barriers, disciplined capital allocation and increasing contractual visibility have all contributed to improving the quality of the business. Many of these improvements have occurred gradually. They are not tied to a single product launch or acquisition, but rather to a consistent strategy that has steadily strengthened the company’s competitive position over time. We believe that process is continuing. As demand grows across renewable energy, space, medical imaging, defence and other advanced technology applications, 5N Plus is increasingly positioned as a trusted supplier rather than simply another participant in the materials value chain.”