Last month, we saw a sharp reversal in performance with the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index trailing the broader index by a wide margin.
In March, the SmallCap Index declined 9.18 per cent, roughly double the 4.58-per-cent loss reported for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
Only two sectors in the TSX SmallCap Index closed out the month with gains. The utilities sector rallied 19.81 per cent and the energy sector advanced 8.85 per cent.
Among the leading sector laggards were materials, consumer discretionary, financials, health care, and real estate reporting negative price returns of 19.48 per cent, 12.44 per cent, 10.3 per cent, 5.59 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively.
The top 10 performers in the TSX SmallCap Index during the month were:
- Saturn Oil & Gas (SOIL-T), up 89 per cent
- Gran Tierra Energy (GTE-T), up 51 per cent
- Kolibri Global Energy (KEI-T), up 49 per cent
- Tenaz Energy (TNZ-T), up 38 per cent
- Valeura Energy (VLE-T), up 34 per cent
- Journey Energy (JOY-T), up 33 per cent
- Boralex (BLX-T), up 32 per cent
- Vermilion Energy (VET-T), up 31 per cent
- Parex Resources (PXT-T), up 28 per cent
- Athabasca Oil (ATH-T), up 28 per cent
Stocks with large positive revisions to their average target prices over the past month include:
- Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR-T), increased 43 per cent to $10 from $7
- Tenaz Energy Corp. (TNZ-T), increased 38 per cent to $70.60 from $51.20
- Almonty Industries Inc. (AII-T), increased 33 per cent to $29.74 from $22.31
- Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE-T), increased 32 per cent to $10.67 from $8.08
In the first quarter of 2026, the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index rallied 10.9 per cent compared to a 3.3 per cent price return for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
Now, here’s a look at analysts’ current target prices, recommendations, forecast returns and yields for all securities in the S&P/TSX SmallCap Composite Index grouped by sector and ranked according to their expected price returns (excluding dividend and distribution income).
The posted target price for each security is an average of all available target prices from analysts. A target price typically reflects an expected share or unit price 12 months from now based on an analyst’s financial modelling, such as a discounted cash flow or sum-of-the-parts model.
For the yield provided, Bloomberg calculates this figure by annualizing the most recent announced dividend or distribution value.
It’s important to note that high target prices, which imply stellar returns that seem unbelievable may be just that - unrealistic. At times, when a stock price falls analysts may maintain their bullish expectations, inflating the forecast return.
In addition, an outlier (extreme target price) can skew the average target price, to the upside or downside, particularly when the number of analysts covering a stock is low. Don’t let a huge projected gain lure you into a position – it is critical to look at the company and industry fundamentals.
Click here to download an Excel version of the report.