The Wealthsimple app. The online investing platform has received regulatory approval to offer forecast contracts, opening the door to prediction trading in Canada.Giordano Ciampini/The Canadian Press
Canadian investors are a step closer to being able to legally bet on real-world events – a controversial type of trading that regulators have long kept at arm’s length. With financial companies such as Wealthsimple Inc. obtaining regulatory approval, Canada is edging into new territory, raising questions about how prediction markets will be regulated and what‘s ahead for everyday investors.
Online investing platform Wealthsimple received regulatory approval from the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization to offer what are known as forecast contracts, opening the door to prediction trading in Canada, The Globe and Mail reported Tuesday.
Questrade Financial Group Inc., one of Canada’s first online trading platforms for retail investors, also intends to offer event contracts “as early as this summer,” Salim Naran, Questrade’s president of growth portfolio, said in an e-mailed statement. The company said it does not currently have CIRO approval.
The moves signal a shift in Canada, where the betting products have largely been restricted. While prediction trading has exploded in popularity in the United States, Canada’s stricter rules and a murky regulatory framework have made it difficult for firms to offer it here.
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The prediction markets industry has rapidly expanded in recent years, with annual revenue of about US$2-billion, and could reach more than US$10-billion by 2030, analysts at Citizens Financial Group Inc. said in late 2025.
The sector has been met with scrutiny in the U.S., where lawmakers and regulators are debating whether these products resemble gambling and are raising concerns about insider trading.
Prediction markets let users trade on whether specific events will happen, from geopolitical developments to economic data releases.
A typical contract poses a yes-or-no question, such as whether the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates on a certain date. Prices fluctuate based on what traders think will happen. If a “yes” contract is trading at 30 cents, that usually implies a 30-per-cent chance of the event occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract pays out $1; if not, it expires worthless.
In contrast to traditional betting, users can typically buy and sell these contracts as new information emerges, allowing them to adjust their positions in real time.
Unlike in the U.S., where a federal entity has exclusive jurisdiction over, and governs, prediction markets, Canada’s regulatory landscape is fragmented.
There is the Canadian Securities Administrators, an umbrella organization of provincial and territorial securities regulators, and CIRO, the investment industry’s national self-regulatory body. But each province and territory has its own securities regulator, and each one typically has power over which firms can operate in its jurisdiction.
In 2017, the CSA banned the sale of short-term, yes-or-no contracts, typically known as “binary options,” citing fraud and the high risk of harm to investors.
That ruling came before prediction markets entered the mainstream, said Matthew Burgoyne, a partner at Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP in Calgary and a chair of the firm’s digital assets and blockchain practice. But the products generally fall under the same definition, leaving their legal status in Canada unclear.
Ontario’s securities regulator cracked down on U.S.-based platform Polymarket in 2025 after it operated in the province for three years.
At the same time, regulators have begun allowing certain firms to offer limited versions of event contracts under strict conditions.
Wealthsimple’s approval allows it to offer contracts tied to economic indicators, financial markets and climate trends, but not sports or elections, which are among the most popular categories in the U.S.
It is the second firm to receive such approval, after Interactive Brokers Canada Inc. last year.
Interactive Brokers’ offering is already live in Canada, with contracts traded on a U.S.-based exchange, ForecastEx LLC. The contracts have the same restrictions as those that will be on Wealthsimple.
These contracts are “non‑advised products, meaning firms are not required to assess suitability for individual investors,” Joanna Nicholson, a spokesperson for CIRO, said in an e-mailed statement.
That means it’s largely on the shoulders of the investor to evaluate the risks associated with these contracts. “Investors should always ensure they are dealing with a CIRO‑registered firm and review all disclosures carefully before trading,” Ms. Nicholson said.
The CSA also encourages investors to check the registration on its website of any person or company that makes available event contracts, binary options or prediction markets to Canadians.
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Jean-François Bernier, managing director of Interactive Brokers Canada, said these contracts can also be used as a hedging tool for investors.
“I think the mentality needs to evolve beyond this notion of, it’s all speculating, it’s all gambling,” he said. “It’s also hedging against economic risks.”
Mr. Naran at Questrade said that when his firm starts delivering prediction trading, it will be delivered to “clients with the same safety and soundness they have come to expect from our brand.”
But critics warn the line between investing and gambling can be thin.
Werner Antweiler, an associate professor at the UBC Sauder School of Business, who ran a not-for-profit prediction market for more than two decades, said many retail participants are drawn to these platforms for the wrong reasons.
“The people from the retail side that participate in prediction markets are very much looking for gambling in disguise,” he said, warning that the products can expose users to significant financial and behavioural risks.
While the versions approved in Canada come with tighter restrictions, focusing on outcomes that are harder to manipulate, he called the shift a “slippery slope” that could expand over time.
Despite the scrutiny, Mr. Burgoyne said the regulatory shift that has opened up Canada to prediction markets creates “a safe place for Canadian residents to trade these types of contracts,” particularly given that many Canadians are already accessing them using virtual private networks, which can make it appear as though they are logging in from other countries.