Sid Mokhtari, chief market technician at CIBC Capital Markets.Supplied
In the first quarter of 2026, the S&P/TSX Composite Index rallied 3.3 per cent in the first quarter, despite a 4.6-per-cent loss realized in March.
Last month, only one sector – energy - delivered a notable gain, reporting a 7.6-per-cent price return. The technology and utilities sectors were relatively unchanged with gains of 0.3 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively. The remaining eight sectors realized losses ranging from 2 per cent to 17 per cent.
Hardest hit were the materials, consumer discretionary, health care, industrials and real estate sectors with negative price returns of 16.6 per cent, 8.5 per cent, 8.4 per cent, 7.3 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively.
CIBC’s chief market technician Sid Mokhtari publishes a monthly report with his top 10 stock ideas. He screens and selects stocks from the largest 100 members by market capitalization within the S&P/TSX Composite Index. His technically driven stock recommendations have consistently outperformed the broader index across a wide range of market conditions.
Last month, his portfolio of top picks declined 2.41 per cent, markedly less than the 4.58 per cent slide reported for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
His disciplined process has delivered strong long-term returns. His stock selections have outperformed the S&P/TSX Composite Index for the past four calendar years.
In 2025, his portfolio of stock selections rallied 51.3 per cent, compared to a 28.3-per-cent price return for the S&P/TSX Composite Index. His stock selections also outperformed the TSX Index in 2024, 2023 and 2022 by 5.8 percentage points, 6.3 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points, respectively.
For April, his diversified basket of stock selections includes nine new stocks and one carryover from the prior month.
Once again, energy is the portfolio’s largest sector exposure where he holds three stocks: Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T), International Petroleum Corp. (IPCO-T) as well as Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY-T), which was carried over from the previous month.
The portfolio holds two financial stocks: Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T) and National Bank of Canada (NA-T). In industrials, Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) and Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL-T) were included in his basket of top picks.
In consumer discretionary, Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR-T) was selected.
In materials, fertilizer company Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-T) was added.
Lastly, in the utilities sector, Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) replaced ATCO Ltd. (ACO-X-T).
According to Mr. Mokhtari, the S&P/TSX Composite Index has delivered an average return of 1.1 per cent in April over the past 30 years, led by strength in the energy sector, which has an average gain of 3.3 per cent.
He continues to favour four factors: value, quality, low volatility and dividend yield.
In his best ideas report published on March 31, Mr. Mokhtari stated, “The oversold condition in the market may receive support from a seasonality perspective. April is historically front-end loaded – the first two weeks are often the strongest, while the latter part of the month tends to be flat. Cyclical sectors typically perform well in April, which aligns with the current oversold conditions in the offensive GICS sectors’ relative-strength charts. Tactically, breadth factors such as the Summation and Advance-Decline (A-D) lines appear oversold, which should help facilitate internal recovery attempts, although a full recovery may not yet be sustainable.”
Early next week, watch for an in-depth Q&A featuring Mr. Mokhtari’s insights on equity markets, stocks and ETFs.
If you have a question that for Mr. Mokhtari, email jdowty@globeandmail.com and in the subject line state, “question for Mr. Mokhtari”. Unfortunately, not all questions submitted can be covered.