Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Patrick Kenny sees Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (BIP-N, BIP.UN-T) now possessing an “intelligent playbook for building the Intelligent World.”
“BIP’s investment strategy remains underpinned by three key themes, including digitalization, decarbonization and deglobalization,” he said. “Meanwhile, with accelerated growth targeting AI infrastructure/data centres, BIP is pursuing seven AI factories across the world with 6 GW of capacity and an expected capital cost of US$200-billion; the company views 1.0 GW of capacity representingUS$30-$50-billion of capital to be near-term opportunities while expanding its AI infrastructure business, deploying US$500-million annually. Meanwhile, the company’s capital recycling plan remains on track with US$2.8-billion of divestitures secured year-to-date, and line of sight towards US$3.0-billion of divestitures over the next 12-18 months to help internally fund the unsized Data segment organic capex profile.”
Citing an “upsized organic growth program within the Data segment” and the underperformance of its stock versus its Midstream/Utility peers by 15 per cent year-to-date, Mr. Kenny upgraded his recommendation to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously, “recommending value-based investors acquire a core position at current levels.”
Brookfield Asset Management to streamline structure by combining two entities
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Kenny said he sees Brookfield Infrastructure reaching an “inflection point” and touted its “continued financial strength since 2020.” That includes an approximately 10-per-cent funds from operations per unit compound annual growth rate through 2025 (based on the consensus estimates on the Street) “despite facing higher borrowing costs reducing annual average FFO by 2-3 per cent, and reducing its payout ratio by 11 per cent.”
“BIP’s diversified infrastructure platform remains insulated by its 85-per-cent contracted/regulated profile, with only 5 per cent being exposed to commodity prices or market rates,” he said. “Combined with solid execution on its capital recycling program (approximately 15 times average exit multiple vs. 11-12 times trading multiple), the company expects to return to its historical 14-per-cent FFO/u growth trajectory over the next five years while delivering annual distribution growth near the high end of its 5-9-per-cent target range, suggesting upside to our 6 per cent per year base case assumption.”
“With an increase to our organic Data capital expenditures in 2025e reflecting the upward digitalization trend, our 2026 estimated AFFO/sh taps up to US$2.56 (was US$2.49) while D/EBITDA bumps up to 7.4 times (was 6.9 times) prior to securing additional dispositions.”
With his revised estimates, Mr. Kenny raised his target for Brookfield Infrastructure’s NYSE-listed shares by US$1 to US$35. The current average on the Street is US$40, according to LSEG data.
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National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn said Brookfield Business Partners L.P.’s (BBU-N, BBU.UN-T) “well-attended” investor day event on Thursday “served to showcase the value creation potential within the business and the levers in place to narrow the discount to NAV.”
“Management highlighted the company’s solid track record of producing EBITDA and margin growth, the outlook for capital recycling, the potential for A.I. to drive operational improvements, and the opportunity in financial infrastructure investments,” he added.
“At a 40-per-cent discount to management’s $54 NAV (or 57 per cent excluding Clarios), we continue to view BBU as one of the best value ideas in our coverage. Now it’s up to the management team to deliver.”
Following the announcement from the private equity arm of Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM-T) of a new corporate structure, Mr. Gloyn raised his valuation multiple for the the BBU’s shares, seeing see further upside from several key drivers, explaining
“1. We expect BBU’s diversified portfolio of companies across sectors/geographies will continue to deliver solid results. While tariffs and knock-on effects present some risk to operating performance, we see lower interest rates and an improving macro backdrop in future quarters as supportive overall. 2. This improved backdrop should help drive a more active M&A backdrop (i.e., monetizations) that demonstrates the value in the underlying businesses. An improving IPO market, significant private capital dry power (Pitchbook estimates nearly $4-trillion private markets capital), and a rapidly growing secondaries market (Pitchbook reported $71-billion in fundraising in H1-25, well ahead of the $108-billion pace for the full year 2024) give us confidence BBU can deliver on its $2-billion in 24 months monetization guidance (at a minimum). 3. Proceeds from the Clarios dividend recapitalization and the secondary sale of three assets provide optionality for capital allocation and, ultimately, value creation as BBU repurchases shares and reinvests in new businesses (e.g., Antylia Scientific, First National). 4. We believe the conversion to a single corporate structure will improve liquidity, index inclusion, and ultimately support a higher share price.”
Keeping his “outperform” recommendation, the analyst raised his target to a Street-high of US$39 from US$33. The average is US$34.50.
Elsewhere, Scotia’s Phil Hardie raised his target to US$39 from US$36 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We attended the 2025 Brookfield Listed Affiliates Day in Toronto which included presentations from Brookfield companies’ senior management teams. The event kicked off with a fireside chat by Brookfield’s CEO, Bruce Flatt, followed by presentations on Brookfield Business Partners (BBU), Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP) and Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP). We came away from the event with increased confidence in: 1) the visibility of BBU / BEP / BIP’s robust organic and M&A growth prospects both in the near-term and on a longer-term basis, 2) the expectation that asset monetizations will remain elevated and a key funding mechanism, and 3) that further simplifications of BIP / BIPC and BEP / BEPC are possible (but not certain). We continue to like all three names as we expect they will generate above average growth in the coming years,” said Mr. Hardie.
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Following Thursday’s unexpected resignation of Constellation Software Inc.’s (CSU-T) president Mark Leonard, National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse predicts its shares will be “pausing for a period of time which is difficult to determine, particularly given the company remains behind pace in capital deployment relative to our expectations to maintain its mid-teen growth rate.”
That led him to lower his recommendation to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
The Toronto-based company’s shares, which have been under pressure this year over concerns about how artificial intelligence might affect the many software companies it owns, closed down 5.95 per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The share price is now down 12.45 per cent since the start of the year, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index has gained 20.2 per cent over that period.
Constellation Software holds call to address investor concerns about AI
“First of all, we’re saddened to hear of the above news,” said Mr. Tse in a client note. “In our view, Mark Leonard has been one of the most prominent and respected executives in all our coverage over the years. We wish him well.
“With respect to his resignation, while all the operating group heads are equally capable of taking on that role (and execution) – including Mark Miller, who we believe is extremely capable having known him since Constellation’s IPO, none will carry the same (obvious) cachet as Mark Leonard. It’s that cachet that’s qualitatively added a premium multiple over and above the Company’s consistent execution."
Mr. Tse noted Constellation had deployed $602-million in capital the first half of its 2025 fiscal year, representing approximately 24 per cent of his full-year $2.5-billion estimate. Since then, Constellation had deployed or gained open commitments for an additional $320-million, bringing that total up to 37 per cent of his target.
That lag alongside the resignation prompted him to cut his target for Constellation shares to $4,500 from $5,500. The average target on the Street is $5,482.50.
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Ahead of the release of its second-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on Oct. 9, Stifel‘s Martin Landry sees Aritzia Inc.’s (ATZ-T) “growth story” continuing.
The equity analyst raised his quarterly earnings per share projection for the Vancouver-based clothing retailer to 41 cents, a gain of 96 per cent year-over-year and 2 cents higher than the Street’s expectation.
“Aritzia has beaten consensus in each of the last 8 quarters, and we believe this trend could continue in Q2FY26,” said Mr. Landry in a client note. ”Credit card data suggest strong sales momentum in both Canada and the U.S., combined with a meaningful increase in square footage. Aritzia’s products are resonating with its loyal customer base, which should translate into a Q2FY26 comparable sales growth of 12. per cent year-over-year suggesting healthy market share gains."
For Canada, the analyst increased his comparable sales assumptions by 300 basis points to growth of 10 per cent year-over-year, nothing the domestic economy is “performing better than expected and given Aritzia’s 17-per-cent growth in Canada in Q1, we are comfortable with our revised 10-per-cent revenue growth forecast.”
“We expect investments in digital marketing to continue to support revenue growth,” he added
“In the United States, our assumptions call for comparable sales growth of 15 per cent year-over-year and for total revenue growth of 37 per cent in local currency. This represents a slight deceleration from the 40-per-cent growth reported in Q1FY26. According to Second Measure, credit card and debit data, for the period covering Aritzia’s Q2FY26, suggest the sales pace has slowed slightly vs Q1FY26 but nonetheless are pointing to a strong growth of 40 per cent. Hence, we are comfortable with our U.S. revenue assumption and see potential for a small upside.”
Keeping his “buy” rating for Aritzia, Mr. Landry raised his target for its shares to $96 from $82, seeing “further upside despite the shares up 60 per cent this year (vs. the S&P TSX Consumer Discretionary index which rose 16 per cent).” The average on the Street is $94.64.
“We believe investors will focus on three main items: (1) strength of sales momentum heading into the fall. Commentary from management on Q3FY26 sales trends will likely influence the stock’s reaction on the day of the results. (2) guidance update on removal of the De Minimis exemption, (3) progress on margin expansion and reiteration of the FY2027 EBITDA targets of 19 per cent,” he said.
“We see further upside to the shares. Investors have pushed Aritzia’s shares to all-time highs in September, supported by a broader market rally but also by strong results from debit/credit card data. The Aritzia brand continues to gain market share as products are resonating with customers. Management has several initiatives underway such as (1) Investment in digital marketing to support growth (2) cost reductions through the company’s Smart Spending Initiative (3) multi-year potential to increase IMU, and (4) the launch of mobile app in H2FY26. Hence, we see a long growth runway for the company in the United States but also internationally.”
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A “bigger and better” Methanex Corp. (MEOH-Q, MX-T) is now a “compelling investment” opportunity, according to National Bank Financial analyst Michael Doumet.
“Outside a period in 2018 (high prices, pre-G3 capex cycle) and 2020 (COVID), MEOH share price has been stuck between $30 and $50 for a decade,“ he explained. ”Despite its underperformance versus the S&P500 and S&P/TSX, we find MEOH’s chunky return of capital potential makes it a compelling investment. Despite its discount - MEOH trades at a discount of 30 per cent on FCF yield and 10 per cent on EV/MMT vs. historical - we believe MEOH is a much cleaner story today with a clearer path to value creation. While we appreciate risks associated with MEOH’s high leverage (post-OCI), we believe a normalization of MEOH’s FCF yield (18 per cent vs. 10 per cent historical) will drive a re-rate coinciding with the deleveraging of its B/S and the ramping of its buybacks.”
In a research report released before the bell on Friday titled Follow the Money, Mr. Doumet initiated coverage of the Vancouver-based company, which is now the world’s largest producer of methanol with a global market share of almost 11 per cent, with an “outperform” rating, touting its recent growth while acknowledging the impact of “soft” methanol prices.
“MEOH is a low-cost producer, with approximately 65 per cent of its production in North America (from 50 per cent in 2024),” he said. “Following its recent organic expansion (Geismar 3 [G3] in late 2024) and transformational acquisition (OCI in June 2025), MEOH expanded its run-rate production by 50 per cent (and more than 100 per cent in North America) versus 2024. Its expansion in North America provides it with a cheaper/more reliable source of natural gas, enhancing the overall asset quality.
“If you build it, FCF will come. From 2019 to 2024, MEOH made a significant investment in constructing G3: as it progressed with its one-big-facility-buildout, FCF was subdued (85 per cent of its would-have-been FCF was spent on G3). As G3 was being built, production growth underwhelmed as production in New Zealand/Trinidad and Tobago declined (due to feedstock constraints). Then, just as the construction of G3 was completed and investors readied for an opportunity to harvest cash flows, MEOH levered its B/S (net debt to 3.9x as at 2Q25) to acquire OCI (strategic, but a tad pricey, in the context of its trading multiple), postponing the return of capital story. Pro forma G3 and OCI, MEOH’s run-rate production will be higher by 30 per cent/share; it is also proportionally much larger in North America (structurally more profitable; less risk). The plan now is this: MEOH will direct all excess FCF to debt repayment until leverage falls within its target range of 2.5 times to 3.0 times (we estimate by 3Q26) at which point, it will allocate an increasing amount to buybacks.”
While Mr. Doumet is projecting methanol prices will continue to struggle through 2026, he pointed to “improved Chinese economic growth or construction/auto demand (i.e., lower rates)” as potential catalysts
“Methanol prices are highly variable. As such, MEOH’s earnings vary widely from year to year,” he added.
The analyst set a target for Methanex shares of US$47. The average on the Street is US$49.88.
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In other analyst actions:
* Desjardins Securities’ Allison Carson initiated coverage of Toronto-based Americas Gold and Silver Corp. (USA-T) with a “buy” rating and $6 target, exceeding the $4.58 average on the Street.
“USA is a multi-asset primary silver producer focused on optimizing its 100-per-cent-consolidated Galena Complex in Idaho,” she said. “With these optimizations and higher-grade silver mining at its assets, we expect an increase in production to 8 million silver equivalent ounces by 2027. With a strong management team and several catalysts ahead, we believe USA should continue its re-rate into 2026 to trade in line with or at a premium to peers.”
“With limited exposure to the commodity through primary silver companies, we believe USA offers significant exposure to silver with its growing production profile and 80 per cent of revenue expected from silver in 2025. Valuations have also been on the rise; however, USA still offers an attractive entry point, trading at a discount to peers.”
* Following changes to his forecast in response to Wednesday’s guidance update, National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen raised his target for Air Canada (AC-T) shares to $23 from $22 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: Stifel’s Daryl Young to $24 from $25 with a “buy” rating and CIBC’s Kevin Chiang to $22 from $24 with an “outperformer” rating. The average target on the Street is $25.15.
“As we detailed in our downgrade earlier this week, relative valuation, which had been the primary driver of our investment thesis, is still attractive, but we see several headwinds to further share price upside in the near-to-medium term as well as a lack of positive catalysts to drive the stock higher," said Mr. Doerksen.
* “As positive end market conditions continue,” Mr. Doerksen raised his Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) target to a high on the Street of $216 from $179 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $180.
“Bombardier shares have continued to march higher, now up 96 per cent year-to-date (versus TSX up 20 per cent),” he said. “Although potential upside for the stock is possibly more limited in the near term, in our view, we remain positive on the stock and expect the upward momentum to continue.”
* Seeing “a stabilizing environment” driving its second-quarter upside, RBC’s Paul Treiber raised his target for BlackBerry Ltd. (BB-N, BB-T) to US$4.50 from US$4 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is US$4.84.
“BlackBerry reported Q2 above RBC/consensus and raised FY26 guidance. The upside reflects demand stabilization following macro/tariff uncertainty at the start of the year. QNX design win momentum rebounded Q2, which improves visibility to sustained QNX growth. If QNX’s growth improves further, we believe the valuation multiple of the stock may begin to increase,” he said.
* Stifel’s Ralph Profiti raised his Street-high target for shares of NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T) by $1 to $17 with a “buy” rating, while National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé bumped his target to $15 from $14 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $13.60.
“NexGen is our top uranium pick,” said Mr. Profiti. “Following our Rook I site visit, we reiterate our thesis that steady run-rate production at the Rook I project on a stand-alone basis is expected to rival Cameco’s entire Canadian production profile on an attributable basis, marking Rook I as one of the most important strategic sources of uncommitted uranium production in the 2030-2036 period that will be sought by U.S. utilities. We increase our TP ... based 1.3 times NAVPS ($13.71) and upcoming permitting catalysts and mark-to-market of the investment portfolio, as well as exploration potential at PCE as one of the more underappreciated aspects of the NexGen story with most recent assay results from Patterson Corridor East (PCE) demonstrating high grade intensity and scale of mineralization, and potential of the system located just 3.5km from Arrow.”
* National Bank’s Adam Shine cut his target for Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T) to $27 from $29, keeping an “outperform” rating, after lowering his second-half expectations based on tariff dislocations. The average is $29.38.
* Following its acquisition of a 90-per-cent silver stream on the Rosh Pinah Zinc mine in Namibia and a 2.75-per-cent NSR royalty on the Santa Rita nickel mine in Brazil for cash consideration of US$125-million with contingent payments of up to US$45-million, National Bank’s Alex Terentiew raised his Versamet Royalties Corp. (VMET-X) to $13 from $11 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $11.42.
“Despite this significant growth, we anticipate Versamet will remain aggressive in its M&A strategy, potentially pursuing additional deals to further improve its market valuation and take advantage of growth opportunities present in the market,” he said.
“We continue to view VMET as one of the best near-term growth stories in the junior royalty space, with planned expansions and start-ups underway at several mines.”
Editor’s note: A previous version of this story referred to Mark Leonard as former CEO of Constellation Software. Mr. Leonard was president of the company, not CEO.