Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While U.S. President Donald Trump’s social media post saying he’ll decertify all aircraft made in Canada is likely to put Bombardier Inc. (BBD-B-T) shares under pressure today, the threat is “empty and unlikely to be enforceable in practice,” said Desjardins analyst Benoit Poirier.
Trump posted Thursday night that because Canada has not certified new Gulfstream models, he will decertify Bombardier’s business jets until the certification is granted. He further warned that, if not immediately resolved, he would impose a 50% tariff on all Canadian aircraft sold into the U.S.
Mr. Poirier maintained a “buy” rating and C$260 price target on Bombardier shares.
Only two Gulfstream models (new G700 and G800) are awaiting Transport Canada approval, which could be imminent, according to reports cited by the analyst.
“Gulfstream reportedly made changes to avionics and navigation systems that are now under review. This issue appears relatively straightforward for Canada and Prime Minister Carney to resolve, as both aircraft are already certified in the US and EU. Assurances could likely be provided that Canadian certification will follow shortly,” noted Mr. Poirier.
“There are approximately 2,970 BBD jets (ex Learjets) registered with the FAA and operating in the US, many owned by Fortune 500 companies, high-net-worth individuals and fleet operators. Decertification would require FAA approval, is highly unlikely and would severely disrupt the travel plans of many Americans,” the analyst added.
“The bizjet market remains structurally undersupplied, with OEM backlogs exceeding two years. North American bizjet activity is up ~32% vs 2019, while the fleet has grown only ~20% and inventories remain tight. As one of only three large-cabin OEMs (~40% share) and one of five mid-size jets (~30% share), a 50% tariff on BBD jets would materially restrict buyer and traveler choice, including for institutional customers (eg KKR-backed BOND’s recent US$1.7border for 50+ BBD aircraft).
“BBD aircraft also rely heavily on US-sourced engines and systems such as GE and Honeywell, with the Global 7500 deriving over 50% of its value from US content, further complicating any straightforward application of tariffs. BBD has 3,000+ employees in the US and recently announced a new service centre in Indiana.
“Finally, BBD has direct exposure to the US DoD. Under the HADES program, the US Army is acquiring nine Global 6500 aircraft, and three have already been delivered.
“Historical precedent also suggests the A&D sector is likely to be spared: (1) the US-EU trade agreement exempted aircraft and components from tariffs; (2) Brazilian A&D firms remain subject only to the 10% baseline duty, not Brazil’s 50% “super tariff”; and (3) during Trump 1.0, Dassault bizjets delivered to the US were unaffected by retaliatory tariffs stemming from the WTO dispute.”
Scotia analyst Konard Gupta, who has a “sector perform” rating and C$295 price target on Bombardier, had a similar reaction.
“While it is too early to conclude anything about the credibility of these threats, the uncertainty around BBD’s single-largest market could once again make investors wary like in early 2025 when the stock came under pressure due to U.S. tariff risks. We downgraded BBD to SP (from SO) earlier this month purely on valuation but the recent pullback and further potential weakness could make the stock look attractive, provided there is no major risk to our long-term outlook for the company. We would view low-$200’s (10x on 2027E) as a solid entry point as long as our long-term estimates remain largely intact,” Mr. Gupta said
He added that the U.S. accounts for the majority of Bombardier’s business, representing anywhere from 60% to 65%+ of its global installed base of at least 5,200 aircraft, annual aircraft deliveries, total order backlog, and annual revenues. “These figures not only include BBD’s bizjet platform (OE + aftermarket) but also its growing defense business (e.g., U.S. Army’s HADES program). Thus, President Trump’s suggested actions, if materialized and sustained for long, could be a major blow to the company. That said, while BBD is a Canadian-based aircraft manufacturer, it has a significant employee and supplier base in the U.S., so any negative impact on the company would also have a lot of repercussions for the U.S. economy.”
TD Cowen analyst Tim James said the latest threat could have negative impact on Canadian stocks beyond Bombardier.
“Even if actions threatened by President Trump are averted, we believe there will be heightened and potentially drawn-out investor sentiment and valuation multiple pressure on Bombardier, and other Canadian aerospace companies that export to the U.S., including CAE and Magellan,” Mr. James said.
“We believe Bombardier’s fwd EBITDA multiple expansion (6.5x to 14x) from the height of tariff uncertainty/fears in early 2025 to the recent peak multiple failed to discount risk related to U.S.-Canada trade relations for a heavily U.S. weighted exporter. We think the defense outlook and business jet cycle fundamentals have improved since early 2024. While we expect a negative reaction, we wouldn’t expect the stock to return to such depressed valuations based on the recent Trump post. Every 1x contraction in the fwd EBITDA multiple equals ~10% decline in share price.”
Mr. James has a C$278 price target on Bombardier shares.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Aravinda Galappatthige was pretty impressed by Rogers Communications Inc.’s (RCI-B-T) latest quarter thanks to a “robust 2026 guide and strengthening free cash flow.”
He raised his price target to C$57 from C$55 while maintaining a “buy” rating.
“We consider Rogers’ Q4/25 results to be net positive despite a generally in line Telecom result due to encouraging guidance, (especially on FCF) which was better than our expectations, and an improving Media/Sports outlook. A SportsCo monetization and related balance sheet de-levering remains a central component of the thesis,” the analyst said in a note to clients.
He noted investors may need to be patient for the monetization of SportsCo, but it is a catalyst on the horizon.
“Management remained generally consistent with recent comments in discussing the prospect of a monetization of SportsCo. With that said, the near-term focus is very much on the completion of the acquisition of the remaining 25% stake in MLSE, which could occur mid-to-late 2026. The broad sale of a minority stake (say 30-40%) in SportsCo is expected to occur thereafter, though it is unclear what the time lag would exactly be. In this backdrop, we suspect the SportsCo transaction is likely a H127 event. We estimate the net inflow could be ~$2-3B depending on how much is divested,” the analyst said.
Elsewhere, Vince Valentini of TD Cowen raised his price target to C$67 from C$64 and reiterated a “buy” rating. The higher target was derived from higher free cash flow forecasts and the official inclusion of sports transactions in his model.
RBC analyst Maurice Choy nudged up his price target on Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP-N) after its latest quarterly results and suggested investors may be underestimating the benefits AI will have on the company.
His target went to US$41 from US$40, and he reiterated an “outperform” rating.
The fourth-quarter results were overall in line with expectations, including the boost to distributions, but left the analyst upbeat on what future results will bring.
“We believe the Q4/25 results and associated disclosures reinforce many favourable themes that position BIP units as one of the strongest Canadian Energy Infrastructure picks for the year,” Mr. Choy told clients.
“Along with benefitting from the solid 6% distribution increase, we believe investors can also look forward to: (1) 10%+ FFO/unit growth; (2) continued momentum in both new investments and asset sales, including delivering superior AI-related infrastructure returns with utility-like risks; and (3) the potential for further activity relating to the unit repurchases and share ATM program,” he said.
“Despite highlighting the digitalization theme at prior Investor Days, we believe the market has yet to fully appreciate the many ways BIP can win, and deliver AI-related infrastructure growth without taking outsized risks,” Mr. Choy said. “Not only was Data Infrastructure funds from operations better-than-expected in Q4/25, we like the tangible examples BIP shared in its annual letter to its unitholders relating to the strong demand across its portfolio in 2025, its materially expanded opportunity set, and its ability to deliver returns at ‘high teens’ (or more), which exceed its 12-15% target internal rate of return (IRR) range. Importantly, while some investors continue to fear an AI bubble, we anticipate that BIP’s risk-focused approach and investment guardrails will offer comfort on how BIP looks to safeguard its investment while delivering these strong returns.”
Elsewhere, TD Cowen analyst Cherilyn Radbourne raised her price target to C$57 from C$55 and reiterated a “buy” rating.
“Transaction activity accelerated in 2025 and that momentum has carried into 2026. Capital recycling is also off to a good start. We see meaningful potential upside based on a 5% yield and the prospect of multiple expansion as earnings growth reaccelerates,” Ms. Radbourne commented.
Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen raised his price target on Firan Technology Group Corp. (FTG-T) to C$17.50 from C$15 while continuing to rate the stock “outperform”.
The analyst attributed the target hike to sustained momentum across the Aerospace & Defense sector, Firan’s ability to leverage these tailwinds, and a rolling forward of his valuations.
Firan is a global corporation providing solutions for aerospace and defense electronic products and sub-systems.
“While the stock has already enjoyed a strong move in recent months (trailing six Month: +27.3% vs. TSX Composite: +19.9%), we still see solid value in the shares given: 1) key indicators that reaffirm a multi-year growth cycle ahead; and 2) Firan’s discounted multiple relative to its closest peers,” the analyst said in a note.
TD Cowen analyst John Shoo raised his price target on Celestica Inc. (CLS-N) to US$330 from US$305 despite the stock’s drubbing on Thursday in the wake of fourth quarter results. He still rates the stock as a “hold”.
“We believe Celestica was punished despite delivering a flawless quarter, highlighting its intricate tie-in with the broader AI trade, one that seems to weigh more on sentiment than fundamentals. We give management full credit for their strong execution,” Mr. Shoo told clients. “Looking forward, we are still comfortable with CLS’ business fundamentals (we believe they only become stronger) and thus have increased our price target.”