Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) enjoyed a “strong start to 2026” with its first-quarter results highlighted by encouraging free cash flow and orders, TD Cowen analyst Tim James thinks “valuation and remaining risks (USMCA, geopolitical) support waiting for more attractive entry point for a great business and industry backdrop.”
“Easing supply chain headwinds, strong pricing and existing backlog support our forecast for delivery growth and margin expansion through 2028 vs. 2025. Services and Defense contributions key drivers and now well understood,” he said in a client note.
Shares of the Montreal-based aerospace manufacturer soared 20.6 per cent on Thursday after it reported revenue for the quarter of $1.599-billion, up from $1.522-billion during the same period in fiscal 2025 but below Mr. James’s $1.717-billion estimate. Adjusted diluted earnings per share soared to $1.61 from 81 cents a year ago and well above the analyst’s 71-cent projection.
“Benefits from ITCs contributed to in-line result,” he said. “FCF stronger-than-forecast due to impressive order activity (2.8 times $, 3.6 times units). “Services revenue growth was very strong (up 25 per cent), and leverage declined more than anticipated.
“Investment thesis substantially unchanged. Management reiterated 2026 revenue/delivery/EBITDA guide implying revenue growth of more than 5 per cent (TD Cowen: up 6 per cent), adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 4 per cent (TD Cowen: up 5 per cent), and flat margin (TD Cowen: down 10 basis points). FCF guide biased higher to more than $1.0-billion (TD Cowen: $1.1-billion) due to strong Q1 orders. Supply chain headwinds have abated, but will take 12-18 months to be reflected in margins/earnings due to time required to build and complete aircraft.”
Moving forward, Mr. James says he will “look forward to more Defense disclosure as it continues to meet expectations for promising long-term risk-reducing, diversification and investor sentiment benefits.”
“Recent reports, including potential NATO order for 10-12 Globaleye, suggest Defense outlook remains constructive while Bombardier benefits from its platform mission capabilities and Canadian-based operations.”
‘Keeping his “hold” rating for Bombardier shares, the analyst increased his target to $284 from $275. The average on the Street is $278.15, according to LSEG data.
“We remain bullish on fundamentals but believe historically-high 15-times forward EBITDA and 30-times forward P/E valuation combined with macro uncertainty and ongoing USMCA renegotiation supports caution for time being,” he said. “Comps trade at an average forward EBITDA multiple of 12.8 times and 21.8 times P/E vs. Feb/26 peak of 15 times and 25 times. BBD’s forward EV/EBITDA up 33 per cent since Dec 31/25 vs down 5 per cent for comps. A potential negative revision to USMCA and/or deteriorating Canada/U.S. economic relations pose downside risk to valuation multiples.”
“On adjusted EPS, Bombardier is trading at 29.8 times TD Cowen forecast forward EPS, versus its aerospace comp-group five-year average of 19.7 times and its own five-year average of 14.8x. The current EBITDA multiple is above our 13.5 times target multiple and the EPS multiple is above our 22.0-times target multiple. We believe these target multiples are appropriate based on the impact from recent sector/industry sentiment, historical precedents, current comparable multiples, the company’s declining financial leverage, significant improvement in historical and forecast financial results, and FCF predictability and stability.”
Elsewhere, Scotia Capital’s Konark Gupta upgraded Bombardier to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” with a $305 target, up from $295.
“We are upgrading BBD ... as our FCF estimates have improved materially on the back of solid Q1 results and a guidance raise,” said Mr. Gupta. “Even before this FCF catalyst, valuation had become more attractive as shares pulled back 15 per cent from the recent highs. Valuation has been our primary concern since January 2026, as forward EV/EBITDA multiple had doubled year-over-year to 14 times on 2026 estimates, largely closing the gap to the closest peer, General Dynamics (15 times at the time). However, today, BBD is trading at 12 times vs. General Dynamics at 14 times, while forward FCF yield has expanded to 6-8 per cent and the leverage ratio has further improved to 1.8 times in a typically low FCF-seasonality quarter. While we continue to like management’s ongoing solid execution on growth, diversification and deleveraging, we believe the structurally improved FCF power will drive incremental shareholder value through further debt reduction, M&A (services or defence), and eventually buybacks and/or dividends.”
Other analysts making target adjustments include:
* RBC’s James McGarragle to a Street high of $332 from $298 with an “outperform” rating.
“There was a lot to like from Bombardier’s Q1 report and we continue to flag Bombardier as a top idea. The most important takeaways for us are as follows: 1) demand was very strong in the quarter and has continued into April; 2) strong demand drove an increase in FCF guidance; and 3) better FCF resulted in lower leverage creating strategic flexibility. We continue to believe that demand resiliency and the long-term opportunity to compound FCF at a low-teen CAGR [compound annual growth rate] are not reflected in the company’s valuation (6-per-cent FCF yield),” said Mr. McGarragle.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $324 from $304 with a “buy” rating.
“While BBD remained vague on production ramp specifics, a backlog exceeding US$20-billion, with more than 400 options, supports a gradual increase in output through decade-end. The ramp-up is expected to be gradual as the Dorval facility and supply chain scale, but we see a credible path to 180 annual deliveries by 2030 without oversupplying the market, given sustained strength in ultra-long-range jets (up 70 per cent vs 2019) and fractionals (up 80 per cent). The upside remains compelling, with a potential 2030 bull case of $495/share,” said Mr. Poirier.
* National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $296 from $286 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We remain highly positive on the company’s fundamentals supported by a $20.3 billion backlog, strong growth momentum in Services and Defense, and better than expected free cash flow. Our only hesitation on the stock is valuation,” said Mr. Doerksen.
After “another quarter of in-line production and another quarter of record FCF from its safe and steady portfolio of mines,” ATB Cormark Securities analyst Richard Gray raised his rating for Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform.”
Kinross delivers steady production and FCF every quarter and with the shares now trading at only 1.03 times NAV, we are upgrading the stock," he said in a client note released Friday before the bell.
For its first-quarter, the Toronto-based miner reported adjusted earnings per share of 71 cents, missing the 74-cent estimate of both Mr. Gray and the Street. Free cash flow of $837.5-million was in line with estimates ($837.4-million and $833.5-millon, respectively), marking its fourth consecutive quarter of record FCF.
“Kinross exited the quarter with $2.2-billion of cash, an increase of $440-million from $1.74-billion at the end of 2025, as the record FCF during the quarter was partially offset by $298-million returned to shareholders,” the analyst said. “The company repurchased 7.75 million shares for $250-million and paid out $48-million in dividends ($0.04 per share) in the quarter. An additional $50 MM of shares were repurchased in April.
“With $350-million returned to shareholders in the first four months of the year, Kinross indicated it is on track to return 40 per cent of its 2026 FCF to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on our FCF estimate of $2.81-billion for the year, this would imply a total capital return of $1.12-billion, which would represent an effective total return of 3.1 per cent.”
The analyst reiterated a $56 target for Kinross shares. The average is $64.43.
"Using current downdraft to go long‚" National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev upgraded Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T) to an “outperform” from “sector perform” following a first-quarter beat and a raise to its full-year guidance, believing its shares “feel washed out.”
“Shares have corrected by 20 per cent year-to-date, while the TSX, over the same time frame, advanced 3 per cent (the S&P 500 rose 4 per cent) and, of course, the construction cohort went on an absolute tear,” he explained. “So, what’s ‘working’ in this market? Anything touching data centre space, nation-building projects, energy, etc. This is essentially BDGI’s end markets and while the full margin normalization dynamic will take a bit of time, getting in now before that fully plays out seems like a good idea to us.
“As a result, we are using the current downdraft in the shares to get exposure to a compounder, albeit one that’s never ‘technically cheap’; we are OK with that. Hard to displace an equipment-heavy business with an app. Upped bottom range of the fleet expansion guide is also not going to hurt sentiment [Friday].”
After markets closed on Thursday, the Calgary-based excavation and related services company reported revenue of US$203-million, a gain of 18 per cent year-over-year and 6 per cent above the US$191-million estimate of both Mr. Sytchev and the Street, driven by a 7-per-cent gain in fleet expansion and 11-per-cent growth in revenue per truck. Adjusted earnings per share of 22 US cents was a penny above the analyst’s expectation and 5 US cents above the consensus.
“Despite the pricing and volume tailwinds this quarter pushing up revenue, operating leverage did not materialize, as gross margin fell 100 basis points year-over-year (although slightly offset with better SG&A control as SG&A percentage of revenue fell 10 basis points year-over-year); this was due to accelerated costs for fleet expansion and additional hiring before those trucks reach their full utilization, resulting in EBITDA margin falling 85 basis points year-over-year, which is a consecutive year-over-year margin decrease sequentially after the same dynamic occurred in Q4/25 (which happened for the first time in 5 years),” he said. “BDGI’s vertically integrated business model results in an inherent lag in FCF and margin inflection vs. the Growth Capex investment cycle resulting in near-term FCF pressure - before the new trucks reach full utilization and FCF/margins start rising again.”
Mr. Sytchev reaffirmed his target for Badger shares of $74. The average target is $78.65.
Elsewhere, Raymond James analyst Frederic Bastien upgraded Badger to “outperform” from “market perform” and increased his target to $77 from $73.
“We were right to go neutral on Badger Infrastructure on Oct-21-25, as the common shares have since retreated 7 per cent, versus a gain of 14-per-cent for the TSX Composite. That said, with new truck builds stretching higher on accelerating demand and growth investments weighing less on profitability than expected, we see BDGI digging out from under the skepticism that followed its 4Q25 print,” said Mr. Bastien.
In a separate note, Mr. Sytchev made these changes:
* GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL-T, “outperform”) to $81 from $78. Average: $73.82.
Analyst: “There are still question marks from investors on the merits of the SECURE transaction; pro forma commodity-exposed top line would only be 7% to 8%, mitigating any real concerns there and, as we said in our flash note, more supportive permitting and regulatory environment on the back of the Spring Economic Update, more nation-building projects, etc., are all net positives for the pro forma entity. With investors aligning themselves with rapidly growing industrial companies that have exposure to AI spending (we are looking at Quanta Services for example – NYSE: PWR; Not Rated), waste peers, by extension, are lagging. One does not need to be bearish on AI but adding GFL at a pro forma 10 times to 11 times EV/EBITDA valuation does not feel like a bad proposition to us."
* Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. (SES-T, “sector perform”) to $23 from $21. Average: $23.53.
Analyst: “There were few major surprises in the print, though management now expects full-year EBITDA to come in at the higher end of the reiterated $520-million to $550-million range (consensus and us are already there). Growth CapEx expectations were raised to $100-million (from $75-million), as the timing of previously announced infrastructure investments was pulled forward and incrementally higher investment into rail capacity for the metals recycling business. The recent spike in oil prices had a limited impact on financials, given the company’s efforts to insulate the earnings profile from the volatility of commodity prices (high prices would need to stay consistently motivated to shift long-term production growth from the current level of 3 per cent a year. The shareholder vote on the proposed GFL acquisition is set to take place on May 27th, and management reiterated the potential benefits of the deal – a view largely aligned with our stance. SES shares are currently trading at less than a 1-per-cent implied discount to the offer price, suggesting a high degree of confidence in the acquisition moving forward; we view the takeover price as fair."
Following Thursday’s release of of a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) on its Kay mine project in Arizona that fell short of expectations due to high costs and complex refractory metallurgical processing, National Bank Financial analyst Rabi Nizami downgraded Arizona Metals Corp. (AMC-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
“The PEA shows negative base-case NPV5% of US$-6million at consensus metal prices (US$4.70/lbCu,US$3,100/oz Au),” he said. “A spot case was also presented with NPV5% ofUS$445-million. We previously carried the Kay mine project at NPV10% US$156-million at our long-term price deck (US$4.20/lbCu,US$3,200/oz Au), with cost estimates benchmarked to a recent Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) on the Antler project, another similar scale polymetallic underground VMS project in Arizona, which was acquired in 2025 for US$160 million. Relative to the Antler PFS, the Kay Mine PEA shows higher initial capex of US$609-million and opex ofUS$138.5/t(vs. Antler’s US$300-million andUS$77/t). The higher costs are largely attributed to the metallurgical complexity at Kay, with US$48/t processing costs (Antler US$24/t) and elevated initial capex required to implement an Albion Process to treat refractory pyrite gold.”
Going forward, Mr. Nizami expects the Toronto-based “to take some time to reset expectations before refocusing on exploration targeting and advancing drill permits.”
“We expect future upside opportunities to be primarily driven by the commodity price backdrop and identification of exploration opportunities contingent on drill permits and financing ability,” he added.
His target for Arizona shares slid to 25 cents from 90 cents. The average on the Street is $1.24.
In other analyst actions:
* ATB Cormark’s Martin Toner, currently the lone analyst covering Toronto-based global mobile-first marketing company Zoomd Technologies Ltd. (ZOMD-X) to “speculative buy” from “outperform” with a $2 target, down from $3.50.
“Zoomd reported a challenging conclusion to fiscal 2025, highlighted by a Q4 revenue contraction of 50 per cent year-over-year to $7.4-million,” said Mr. Toner. “This decline was primarily driven by a reductionin activity from two of the company’s largest customers as it shifted its operating models. The broader health of the business remains intact, and the company expects both accounts to returnto previous levels within 2 or 3 quarters. The remaining customer base grew by 30 per cent in Q4. For the full year, Zoomd still managed to post record profitability with Net Income up 66 per cent to$14.8-million and ended with a strong balance sheet featuring $22MM in cash and zero debt.”
“This rating change reflects acknowledging higher risk given the uncertainty aroundthe paused customer relationships. We remain optimistic on the long-term 22-per-cent revenue CAGR (2026-2034) and the catalyst of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The Speculative Buy rating accountsfor the near-term volatility following the client issues. Zoomd now has 54 per cent of the market capin cash. We view the current valuation of 1.7 times EV/EBITDA as an attractive entry point, as themarket’s reaction to quarterly volatility has created a significant discount relative to Zoomd’s medium-term growth potential and strong cash generation.”
* In a client note titled The Curious Case of the Disappearing NOI, National Bank’s Matt Kornack trimmed his target for units of Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN-T) to $10.50 from $10.75, keeping a “sector perform” rating. Others making changes include: Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $9.50 from $10 with a “market perform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar to $9.75 from $9.50 with a “hold” rating. The average target on the Street is $10.06.
“While we are admittedly being cute with our title to this note, the goal was to highlight an apparent variance in NOI for the last few quarters relative to operating performance KPIs. There has been a notable divergence here with occupancy/rents trending stable to positive but eroding margins / recoveries eating into earnings. Management did note that some of this relates to development/leasing deliveries where cost decapitalization is preceding revenue recognition. As such, it should be temporary albeit the timing is uncertain. Meanwhile non-renewals will hit occupancy in Q2, so the road to recovery remains non-linear. Elsewhere KING Toronto continues to be an expensive problem child, but disposition activity is heating up with relatively low associated cash yields,” said Mr. Kornack.
* RBC’s Maurice Choy hiked his AltaGas Ltd. (ALA-T) target to $55 from $50 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: ATB Cormark’s Nate Heywood to $56 from $54 with an “outperform” rating, Scotia’s Robert Hope to $57 from $54 with a “sector outperform” rating, TD Cowen’s John Mould to $55 from $51 with a “buy” rating and National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $52 from $51 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $51.71.
“We are elated with the better-than-expected Q1/26 results and the directional guidance upgrade for 2026, which could be surpassed should the ongoing global LPG market strength continue, setting the year up well with financial and operational catalysts for investors to look forward to. Longer-term, the real story would be how Middle East geopolitical disruptions have fundamentally altered global LPG trade flows, positioning Canadian exports (particularly via AltaGas) as essential diversification for Asian buyers. Alongside a competitive Utilities rate base growth and backed by a healthy balance sheet, AltaGas’ platform is firing on all cylinders,” said Mr. Choy.
* Ahead of its earnings release of May 13, National Bank’s Zachary Evershed dropped his target for Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T) to $265 from $290, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $255.29.
“We take this chance to update our estimates in light of continued weather impacts in March. We are calling for sales of $0.99 billion vs. the Street’s $1.01 billion, Adj. EBITDA of $119.7 million on 12.1-per-cent margins (Street: $118.7 million, 11.8 per cent), and an Adj. EPS of $0.49 vs. consensus of $0.57,” said Mr. Evershed.
* Pointing to sulphuric acid cost pressures, National Bank’s Shane Nagle trimmed his Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T) target to $14 from $15 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $16.29.
“We have incorporated higher consumable costs, curtailed a portion of cathode production and deferred some capital spending into 2027/2028, which has led to a slight decrease in our target. We reiterate our Outperform rating given the company’s discounted valuation and our positive long-term growth outlook; however, CS remains one of the names more exposed to prolonged conflict in the Middle East given significance of diesel/sulphuric acid cost pressures,” said Mr. Nagle.
* In response to “strong” first-quarter operating and financial results, National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé raised his Endeavour Mining PLC (EDV-T) target to $116 from $115, exceeding the $105.28 average, with an “outperform” rating.
“EDV remains on track to deliver on its production and costs guidance for 2026 and noted that it remains mostly insulated on the supply front from the impact of the Iran war on fuel and diesel,” said Mr. Sidibé. “At current levels, the company noted that the AISC for Q2/26 would be impacted by $25/oz. As a result of our updates and rolling forward our NAV, our total NAV decreases to $106.19/sh from $109.40/sh, while our 2026 EBITDA increases 2 per cent to $3.76-billion.”
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar bumped his Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-T) target to $101 from $100 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $108.23.
“We consider the Q1/26 release to be mixed. While Q1 results largely came ahead, Q2 guidance was light; 2026 outlook was reaffirmed. We maintain a constructive view on Gildan owing to an attractive growth profile related to the transformative HanesBrands acquisition and reasonable valuation,” said Mr. Shreedhar.
* Citing valuation, JPMorgan’s Jeffrey Zekauskas downgraded Methanex Corp. (MEOH-Q, MX-T) to “neutral” from “overweight” with a US$65 target, up from US$56, while RBC’s Nelson Ng raised his target to US$70, remaining above the US$68 average, from US$65 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Methanex is poised to realize a very strong Q2/26 as elevated methanol prices hit the bottom line. Based on the company’s May 2026 non-discounted methanol price, we estimate that the company would generate roughly $1.70/ share of FCF/month ($1.6-billion annualized), which would mainly be allocated to debt reduction, and potentially some share buybacks. However, the main uncertainty is when the Iran conflict will be resolved, and the time it takes for methanol prices to normalize. We increased our PT ... to mainly reflect higher methanol prices through 2026,” said Mr. Ng.
* Stifel’s Daryl Young raised his NFI Group Inc. (NFI-T) target to $25.50, above the $24.38 average, from $23 with a “buy” rating ahead of the May 7 release of its first-quarter results.
“Q1 is historically a seasonally slow quarter,and this year will look particularly pronounced on a sequential basis given NFI’srecord-breaking Q4/25 result that included several very high-margin orders as well asa surge in catch-up deliveries following challenges earlier in 2025. Across 2026 weare optimistic that results will be smoother as NFI seems to have navigated the worstof its supply chain and battery recall issues. Additionally, the balance sheet and cashflow is supported by the XALT settlement. The stock remains attractively valued, inour view, but we acknowledge that it has had a strong run and investors remain jitteryfollowing the myriad of challenges in recent years. As such it’s harder than normal togauge what’s priced in. Regardless, we are optimistic that NFI will see its first year ofuninterrupted production since 2019,” said Mr. Young.
* With Thursday’s announcement of a 30-year corporate power purchase agreement (CPPA) with the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company at its Hai Long 2A offshore wind project, Desjardins Securities’ Brent Stadler increased his Northland Power Inc. (NPI-T) target to $24 from $23 with a “hold” rating. The average is $24.75.
“Our target increase is driven by expectations for better returns on the 2A project, and we now model a 10-per-cent IRR. We assume the potentially better pricing could largely benefit starting in year 11 given the Taipower PPA was expected to step down then. We expect clarity on our assumptions when NPI reports on May 13,” he explained.
* In the wake of in-line quarterly results, National Bank’s Dan Payne hiked his Precision Drilling Corp. (PD-T) target to $150, above the $148.57 average, from $140 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: ATB Cormark’s Tim Monachello to $175 from $165 with an “outperform” rating, Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $165 from $162 with an “outperform” rating and TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil to $130 from $127 with a “hold” rating.
“The diversity of its operations continues to underpin the resilience and quality of its earnings (far more industrialized than historical) and accelerating outcomes of shareholder value (10-per-cent FCF yield supporting deleveraging & buyback), while prospective macro tailwinds offer long-term option value to come,” said Mr. Payne.
* TD Cowen’s Sam Damiani bumped his Primaris REIT (PMZ.UN-T) target to $20 from $19.50 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Mario Saric to $19.75 from $18.75 with a “sector perform” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar to $21.50 from $20 with a “buy” rating and RBC’s Pammi Bir to $21 from $20 with an “outperform” rating.. The average is $19.92.
eers (70“We have increased visibility into the forthcoming rebound in PMZ’s occupancy, and therefore re-acceleration in SPNOI and FFO growth. The Q1 miss hit our 2026 estimates, but our 2027 estimates are intact and strong growth in 2028+ appears increasingly probable. A planned leasing update in June should be a catalyst. PMZ trades at 12.7 times P/AFFO, 89 per cent of the Canadian retail p-95-per-cent historical range),” said Mr. Damiani.
* Jefferies’ Kyle Cohu raised his Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T) target to $26, topping the $23.20 average, from $23 with a “buy” rating.
“Spin Master delivered results Q1 above expectations, helping aid investor confidence, but earnings reflected revenue pressure and margin drag from Entertainment amortization and softer Digital monetization. Toy POS trends and Melissa & Doug stabilization were encouraging. With easier comps ahead and a PAW Patrol-led 2H, FY26 guidance remains intact despite near-term costnoise,” said Mr. Cohu.
* RBC’s Matthew McKellar moved his West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG-N, WFG-T) target to US$80 from US$81 with an “outperform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Sean Steuart to US$86 from US$88 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$81.90.
“We continue to like West Fraser’s low-cost focus, advantaged softwood lumber duty rate (which looks set to persist, although at a relatively lower spread, under AR7-based rates), scale and geographical diversification, and strong balance sheet, particularly in an uncertain market with rising costs and a cloudy demand outlook. We view West Fraser as well positioned to navigate any challenges that may develop as the year plays out,” said Mr. McKellar.