Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
In response to the 10.8-per-cent drop in CGI Inc.’s (GIB.A-T) share price following its second-quarter earnings release on Wednesday, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber thinks “the market is becoming increasingly pessimistic in light of AI uncertainty.”
“Even though CGI’s shares are trading at multi-year valuation lows, we believe the probability of an upward valuation re-rating has declined,” he added.
Accordingly, as the Montreal-based business and technology consulting firm’s valuation “appears increasingly likely to remain at trough levels,” Mr. Treiber downgraded his rating for its shares to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
“CGI is trading at 9.6 times NTM [next 12-month] P/E, which is at the low end of its 10-year range (9–21 times range, 17 times average) and slightly below global IT services peers at 10 times,“ he said in a client report. ”We believe pessimism regarding the potential AI-related headwind to IT services pricing and growth is likely to be sustained for a longer duration than we previously expected, particularly as CGI’s organic growth has trended below our expectations."
While its second-quarter revenue of $4.156-billion, a gain of 3 per cent year-over-year, fell below the Street’s expectation of $4.241-billion, CGI logged adjusted earnings per share of $2.27, up 15 cents from a year ago (or 7 per cent), matching the consensus forecast.
However, Mr. Treiber warns of a “flattening” organic growth trajectory, which he thinks may “restrain CGI’s pace of value creation.”
“CGI’s Q2 organic growth missed our expectations (negative 3.0 per cent vs. RBC at negative 0.9 per cent),” he explained. Over the last 10 quarters, CGI’s organic growth has averaged below 99 bps below our estimates, and the company has experienced 7 quarters of negative organic growth. While a large portion of the shortfall stems from cyclical factors, we believe intensifying AI-related pricing deflation and substitution are potential headwinds to future organic growth. Following Q2, we are reducing our organic growth estimates to negative 2.3 per cent FY26e and 0.9 per cent FY27e, down from negative 0.8 per cent and 3.4 per cent previously."
“Over the last 10 years, CGI has averaged 2-per-cent organic growth, which when combined with acquisitions, buybacks, and margin expansion has helped contribute to CGI averaging 10-per-cent adj. EPS growth per annum. Therefore, even a modest reduction (i.e., 200–300 bps) in CGI’s organic growth may push the company’s adj. EPS growth from above market to in line with or below the broader market."
While noting CGI has “a track record of consistently creating shareholder value over the long term through disciplined capital allocation,” Mr. Treiber thinks buybacks and acquisitions are now “less likely to improve sentiment” and reduced his target to $100 from $150 based on his revised estimates. The average target on the Street is $143, according to LSEG data.
“[Our new target] is now based on 10 times calendar 2027 estimated P/E, down from 15 times previously. We assume that CGI will continue to trade at the low end of its historical range and in line with global IT services peers (at 10 times),” he said.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target adjustments include:
* TD Cowen’s David Kwan to $102 from $153 with a “buy” rating.
“Like the rest of the sector, we think the AI overhang is likely to persist for CGI, as it faces AI-driven growth headwinds that could linger/increase as contracts come up for renewal in the years ahead. That said, we expect organic growth to improve in the near-term, as other headwinds alleviate (e.g., U.S. Federal), with its solid FCF (more than 11-per-cent yield) helping fund its active buyback and M&A,” said Mr. Kwan.
* Raymond James’ Steven Li to $130 from $168 with an “outperform” rating.
“Mixed 2Q results. Organic growth (down 2.6 per cent year-over-year) missed targets but we believe should improve going forward given strong U.S. Feb bookings (1.22 times) and U.S. Fed was the major drag (~100bps of the organic decline). Given macro remains in flux (Iran etc.), management refrained from making any commitment as to when we can see organic growth turn back to positive. We also highlight that the historical discount valuation (usually 3-4 turns) to Accenture is all but gone which likely keeps a lid on CGI’s multiple,” said Mr. Li.
* Stifel’s Suthan Sukumar to $110 from $128 with a “buy” rating.
“Our key takeaway from FQ2 results is CGI’s reaffirmed expectations for improved organic growth over the fiscal year. The bookings softness in the quarter doesn’t help much with visibility, but appears transitory and was largely driven by European deal slippage that has already begun to normalize. Notably, accelerated SI&C bookings reflect stronger client spending intentions around AI and cyber. Combined with a rebounding U.S. Federal segment, robust public-sector demand, and sustaining financial services strength, these factors help support a path to organic growth over the year. We believe M&A remains a potential upside catalyst. CGI now trades at a decade-plus trough P/E multiple of 9 times, presenting an attractive risk/reward profile, in our view, though stronger organic growth is the primary factor to support a re-rate, which could take time given the challenging macro backdrop, particularly in Europe (50 per cent of revenues),” said Mr. Sukumar.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Robert Young to $140 from $150 with a “buy” rating.
“We remain positive overall on CGI’s durable cash generation, disciplined capital deployment, and position to benefit from sector consolidation, but are more cautious on organic growth recovery, which is key to a positive thesis in our view. Given multiple compression in the IT Services sector, we have reduced our target multiple,” said Mr. Young.
* Scotia’s Kevin Krishnaratne to $110 from $120 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Following CGI’s Q2, which missed organic revenue growth expectations, our FY26 estimates have been updated as we now model a more gradual ramp towards a positive inflection. We now forecast organic growth ex-FX exiting Q4 vs. our prior assumptions of this occurring in Q3. Although Q2 was soft, we are encouraged by some of the trends CGI is seeing, particularly within its Government segment (U.S. Fed business expected to turn positive in Q3) with momentum building across other parts of the globe as well, and signs of AI adoption rising. We remain cautiously optimistic but for now continue to rate shares Sector Perform, with our target moving to $110 (prior $120) reflecting 7.0 times CY27 EBITDA (previously was 8.0x). Shares of closest peer Accenture are currently trading at ~7.0x. We note support for the shares at current levels given the company’s buyback and strong financial position,” he said.
* Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil to $147 from $149 with a “buy” rating.
“Our estimates are below consensus. For example, our FY27E revenue is 3 per cent below consensus, as we expect the recovery to be gradual. We still maintain our Buy rating as (1) we view [Wednesday’s] reaction as excessive; (2) CGI now has a strong FCF yield of 10 per cent (our numbers); and (3) we expect IT services will play an important role in the AI era. Management provided examples of CGI’s current use of AI in production, although the net impact of the technology remains difficult to forecast,” said Mr. Dubreuil.
After a “sizeable” quarterly beat driven by a record backlog and revenue from its nuclear business, National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev sees Aecon Group Inc.’s (ARE-T) “improved execution and contract terms cement step-up in earnings quality” with nuclear and concession opportunities becoming “major potential catalysts.”
"When facts change, one needs to adjust their perspective. Quanta Services Inc. (NYSE: PWR; Not rated), a de facto electrical/utilities play in the U.S. is a US$100-billion market cap company now, an enormous number when compared to something like CNR (covered by our colleague, Cam Doerksen, Sector Perform,$164.00target price), an actual rail company, at $95-billion,“ he explained.
“Is Aecon’s investment thesis swept up in electrification/nuclear/AI momentum? 100 per cent. Will earnings [Wednesday night] from the hyperscalers provide another make or break sentiment read on this trajectory? Most likely. We are also cognizant of the fact that investors are petrified of the perception around AI disruption in the engineering space and construction is viewed as ‘safe’ in addition to nuclear (28 per cent of the top line), defence, utilities and eventual concessions opportunity. We would rather see the trade completely crack vs. facing an opportunity cost of not being long."
Shares of the Toronto-based company rose 3.9 per cent on Wednesday after it reported revenue of $1.257-billion for its first quarter, up 18 per cent year-over-year and 11 per cent above the Street’s expectation of $1.133-billion due largely to higher Nuclear operations revenue in the Construction segment “on the back of increased refurb/new build work in Ontario and the U.S.” Adjusted earnings per share came in at a loss of 21 cents, a penny better than the consensus, due largely to legacy project costs.
“With Eglinton and Finch now complete and Gordie Howe on track to wrap up this quarter, the legacy fixed price project portfolio is no longer a meaningful drag on results (only a $4-million hit in Q1/26) and embedded margins in the backlog should be far less volatile on a pro forma basis,” said Mr. Sytchev. “While the remaining quarters will have tougher top-line comps, revenue should still be up materially year-over-year and positive operating leverage should complement the de-risked backlog in achieving material margin expansion. Defence continues to be especially promising, with opportunities in Arctic airport runways work and port infrastructure in Eastern Canada; construction revenues from the recently announced Over-the-Horizon Radar contract are expected to ramp up by mid-2027E.
“Nuclear momentum continues in full force. Management sees a wide set of opportunities in the sector over the next several years, helped by ARE’s strong track record in execution and a rapidly improving regulatory backdrop when it comes to encouraging new projects and expediting their approval. Given Aecon’s experience with a wide array of nuclear technologies, we also expect significant growth south of the border as well (35 per cent of 2025’s $800-million nuclear revenues came from the U.S., which should grow to about $300-million in 2026).”
Mr. Sytchev also noted management is seeing opportunities to expand the company’s Concessions portfolio in the next six to 12 months, and he expects segment earnings to “inflect materially upwards next year.”
With his “outperform” rating for Aecon shares, he raised his target to a high on the Street of $59 from $48 after a “further boost” to the forward multiple on its core Construction segment. The average target is $46.69.
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies to $44.50 from $46 with a “hold” rating.
“The full-year outlook for 2026E remains unchanged, but the multi-year demand backdrop remains attractive given the mixture of exposure to nuclear, infrastructure and defense. We are retaining our HOLD rating due to valuation,” said Mr. Gillies.
* TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme to $62 from $59 with a “buy” rating.
“Strong Q1/26 results/backlog reinforce our constructive stance on ARE; we continue to see healthy upside. With legacy projects risk largely rolled off and an ongoing mix shift toward structurally attractive end-markets (still not fully reflected in ARE’s valuation), we expect further re-rating. ARE continues to trade at a notable discount to U.S. peers with similarly attractive end-mkt. exposures,” said Mr. Tupholme.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $52 from $45 with a “hold” rating.
“ARE is well positioned to benefit from increased investment. That said, following the recent material multiple expansion, we believe some optimism is already priced in. We prefer to remain on the sidelines until there is clearer evidence of sustained margin improvement or the introduction of longer-term targets. After the AI-driven pullback in engineering names, we continue to favour the group for its stronger relative return potential, despite increasing our ARE multiple well above historical levels,” said Mr. Poirier.
* RBC’s Sabahat Khan to $49 from $44 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Overall, a good start to 2026 with record backlog of $10.9-billion providing for a favorable setup. Q1 backlog build reflected good contribution from Civil/Utilities businesses, while the Nuclear adds are likely to be lumpy given the nature of work in this end-market. As top-line trends higher, over the medium-term, we will be keeping an eye on margin progression (as the company moves beyond the legacy projects),” said Mr. Khan.
* ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray to $49 from $42 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Aecon delivered a strong quarter with better-than-expected top-line growth and underlying margin profile in Construction contributing to the variance versus ATBe. Management remained positive about the opportunity set, given tailwinds supporting demand across key end markets, particularly nuclear. While we remain constructive on ARE’s outlook and expect conversion of the higher-quality backlog to support top-line growth and an increasingly predictable margin profile, valuations have moved notably above the company’s historical range of 6.2 times range to now 10.2 times 2027e, limiting the near-term upside and keeping us cautious on shares,” said Mr. Murray.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk to $56 from $52 with a “buy” rating.
“Aecon’s business has been much improved over the last five years, yet its valuation multiple has only recently showed signs of reflecting this. Lower risk, collaborative contracts as well as cost plus/unit price now dominate the revenue stream at 69 per cent vs. 38 per cent in 2020. Its nuclear business, where the barrier to entry is extremely high, is 28 per cent of revenue vs. 10 per cent in 2020. Its backlog is $10.9 billion vs. $6.5 billion in 2020. Its utilities business has posted a 5-year revenue CAGR of 10 per cent and generates a 10-per-cent EBITDA margin with U.S.-listed peers trading at mid-teens EV/EBITDA (2026E) multiples. With the legacy LSTK contracts down to de minimis levels of revenue and backlog (less than 1 per cent), we are seeing the benefits of Aecon’s improved fundamentals reflected in its financials, which are higher margin and appear more predictable,” said Mr. Lynk.
In a client note on Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T) titled Higher for Longer, Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman “materially” increased his estimates for AVL Manufacturing Inc., acknowledging “we were working with faulty assumptions.”
With Tuesday’s release of its quarterly results, which featured a “sizeable” margin beat, Toromont announced it has increased its ownership in Hamilton-based AVL, which designs and manufacturers of power generation and storage enclosures, to an 80-per-cent stake from 60 per cent previously after moving forward with the purchase of half of the shares it does not currently own for $71-million.
“We were under the impression that Hamilton capacity was $200-million of revenue whereas it seems closer to $400-million,” said Mr. Goldman. “If Charlotte is expected to 2 times Hamilton, that suggests total AVL capacity is closer to $800-million – with gross margins that are 7-8 times traditional new equipment, per our estimate.
“We find AVL disclosures opaque and inconsistent quarter-to-quarter, which makes evaluating trends and ascribing a multiple challenging. The most obvious example is that the company did not break out AVL’s backlog this quarter. If we take Power Systems Backlog, which includes AVL, of $770-million, it increased only 8 per cent quarter-over-quarter from $710-million in 4Q, compared to a 145-per-cent increase from 4Q24 to 4Q25.”
With his new forecast, the analyst raised his target for Toromont shares to $229 from $208, maintaining a “sector perform” rating. The average is $217.14.
“Without the granularity, we do not want to speculate on the trends in legacy vs. AVL,” he added. “But with shares trading at 27.8 times P/E on our 2026 estimates and 24.2 times P/E on our 2027 estimates, clearly a lot of optimism around data center growth is priced-in and any blip in the trend, perceived or otherwise, will be scrutinized.”
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen to $190 from $180 with a “market perform” rating.
“We are increasing our target price on Toromont Industries ... to reflect better-than-expected 1Q26 results and modest commensurate increases to our estimates. Despite this momentum, we reiterate our neutral rating based upon sustained concerns over: 1) lingering macro headwinds impacting E. Canada; 2) weakening ‘core’ new equipment sales (ex-AVL) ; and 3) the stock’s lofty (near record) valuation. Against this backdrop, we are comfortable sticking to the sidelines,” said Mr. Hansen.
* National Bank’s Maxim Sytchev to $216 from $214 with an “outperform” rating.
“In Q1/26 AVL’s top line represented 10.5 per cent of TIH’s total sales, compared to 6.9 per cent in Q4/25 and 5.9 per cent in Q3/25 … and 3 per cent in Q1/25,“ said Mr. Sytchev. ”While the entire market swooned on OpenAI reportedly not meeting some of its aggressive internal targets, someone is definitely buying all of those enclosures… interesting.“
“In addition to the strong power business, we were also very pleased with Used, Rental and PS momentum. As is the case for our construction cohort, equipment dealers are in the primary beneficiary circle of companies to ride the Canadian infra re-industrialization wave (Tuesday night’s Spring Federal Budget Update supports the thesis -Greater sense of direction in Spring Economic Update that we view positively for our coverage). TIH, of course, brings the hyperscalers’ CapEx angle, which makes the thesis even more compelling from our perspective.“
* Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk to $240 from $235 with a “buy” rating.
“The quarter contained several developments that we feel bode well for future EPS growth. Namely, AVL’s momentum continued to accelerate with sequential revenue growth accelerating to 32 per cent from 26 per cent in the prior quarter. Fundamentals across the rest of the Equipment Group are also strengthening, particularly product support growth. We continue to believe Toromont’s growth profile and balance sheet optionality ($365 million of net cash) make it a core holding within the industrials space,” said Mr. Lynk.
* RBC’s Sabahat Khan to $234 from $207 with an “outperform” rating.
“Toromont delivered good Q1 results that were above expectations, reflecting strong demand (particularly in AVL) and margin improvement. Supported by its record $1.7-billion backlog, we expect Toromont to sustain its operating momentum through 2026, underpinned by an expanding service/product offering, ongoing growth investments, and capacity ramp-up at AVL,” said Mr. Khan.
While acknowledging Canadian National Railway Co.’s (CNR-T) in-line first-quarter results were “modest relative to recent beats reported by rail and trucking peers,” Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier thinks the 6-per-cent drop in its shares on Wednesday was “an overreaction.”
“A few negative items impacted the quarter (fuel, FX and higher accident costs; $0.11 EPS impact), which we view as non-recurring,” he said. “We were encouraged by the unchanged outlook and positive comments on the call. Fuel prices could provide an EPS tailwind of $0.10 for the full year, which is not reflected in the outlook.”
Before the bell on Wednesday, CN reported adjusted fully diluted earnings per share of $1.80, which was a penny above Mr. Poirier’s projection but a cent below the consensus estimate. He noted fuel and FX represented an EPS drag of 7 cents, while higher accident costs during the quarter “inflated” costs by approximately $30-million (or a 4-cent impact on EPS).
The analyst emphasized CN’s outlook “remains unchanged” and its balance sheet now sits at “more optimal levels” with it “fair to expect more measured pace of buybacks.”
“2Q volumes are off to a strong start, while fuel could provide a 10-cent boost to EPS in 2026,” said Mr. Poirier. “Despite uncertainty around tariff-driven demand pull-forward, we were encouraged by comments from CMO Janet Drysdale on the call ($100-million of new revenue opportunities and energized sales team). While RTMs [revenue ton miles] are off to a solid start in 2Q (up 3.4 per cent quarter-to-date), we remain more conservative at up 1.5 per cent as CN faces tougher year-over-year comps. At current levels, fuel could become an EPS tailwind of $0.15 in 2H26 or $0.10 for the full year, which is not reflected in the current outlook.”
“Strong FCF of $900-million was achieved in 1Q26, which allowed management to aggressively buy back shares (6 million acquired in 1Q26). As leverage increases to management’s targeted level of 2.7 times, we expect buyback activity to continue, though at a reduced pace (we assume 15 million shares to be acquired for the remainder of the year).”
Retaining his “buy” rating for CN shares, he raised his target to $163 from $156. The average is $156.20.
“We were surprised by [Wednesday’s] share price reaction (down 6 per cent) in light of the unchanged outlook, representing a buying opportunity,” he concluded.
Elsewhere, other adjustments include:
* Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $162 from $160 with a “sector outperform” rating.
" Q1 results came in largely as expected despite several year-over-year headwinds, supporting full-year guidance and our outlook. However, management noted some conservatism in guidance related to fuel as well as incremental demand tailwinds in the current geopolitical environment. While we are keeping our 2026 outlook intact, we are currently of the view that our estimates, which are slightly above guidance, could have upside risk depending on how the Middle East conflict, energy prices and FX unfold over the coming months. Despite the recent recovery heading into the Q1 results, valuation remains cheaper vs. history and peers, some of which is understandable. We would take advantage of today’s pullback," said Mr. Gupta.
* RBC’s Walter Spracklin to $178 from $160 with an “outperform” rating.
“While CN delivered an inline result vs consensus (note that estimates moved higher into the quarter report), expectations for higher operating leverage following the strong performance across U.S. peers did not materialize in Q1, leading to an early sell-off in the shares. Key is that we believe this to be a knee-jerk reaction to the headline result, as management did a good job on the call to flag what we characterize as discreet Q1 costs. We expect operating leverage to pick up through the course of the year and see upside to guidance and consensus numbers,” said Mr. Spracklin.
* Citi’s Ariel Rosa to US$124 from US$123 with a “buy” rating.
“Despite what we viewed as a solid quarter with reaffirmed full-year outlook, CNI shares declined 6 per cent on Wed. reflecting elevated expectations into the print (shares had been up 15 per cent year-to-date), as well as a cautious tone from management on uncertainties related to Iran war impact, fuel price fluctuations, and tariffs/USMCA resolution. CN noted optimism that Middle East disruptions and elevated commodity prices could drive increased Canadian production, with CN as a beneficiary, particularly as it has ample capacity, but noted it remains early to confirm sustainable growth. It continues to see ‘flattish’ volume growth with EPS slightly better, offset by higher fuel prices and FX headwinds,” said Mr. Rosa.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Walter Spracklin expects shares of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T) to “come under some pressure” following Wednesday evening’s release of first-quarter results that “were below expectations and trends that put full year guidance at risk.”
“Notable was a coal production issue at a major customer, which was called out as a 100 basis points headwind to volumes,” he added. “While management guided to a strong sequential improvement in Q2, we are taking our numbers down to the very low end of management guidance for mid-single-digits volume and low-double-digits EPS, with risk to the downside.”
After the bell, CPKC reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.04, down 2 per cent year-over-year and below the $1.07 estimate of both Mr. Spracklin and the Street. He attributed the miss to slightly lower revenue ($3.701-billion versus consensus $3.755-billion) and slightly higher operating ratio (63 per cent versus 62.7 per cent).
While he emphasized the company’s guidance was reaffirmed, the analyst noted “increasing investor trepidation regarding the high bar.”
“Management reaffirmed its confidence in hitting its low-double-digits EPS growth guidance (which assumes mid-single-digits volumes),” said Mr. Spracklin. “On one hand, there is increased trepidation regarding the ability to hit that rather high bar given that Q1 has started out of the gate with negative EPS growth, 2-per-cent volume, a deteriorating O/R - and news of a major coal production issue at Elk Valley. That said, mgmt delivered strong conviction regarding double-digit EPS growth next quarter, which if achieved would allay some concern regarding the ability to hit 2026 guidance.”
“We are reducing our 2026 estimates, mainly driven by the lower Q1 and the coal issues. As a result, our 2026 EPS goes to $5.11 (from $5.16), which represents year-over-year growth of 11 per cent (management guidance for low-double-digits EPS growth) and 4.3-per-cent volume growth (down from 5 per cent); both being at the very low end of the guidance range. We are also reducing our 2027 to $5.91 (from $5.96).”
With those changes, he cut his target for CP shares by $1 to $127, remaining above the average of $126.95, with an “outperform” rating.
Other changes include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $131 from $129 with a “buy” rating.
“1Q was always expected to be the most difficult comp of the year, with FX, fuel and carbon tax yield headwinds set to moderate into 2Q, while CP also begins lapping last year’s IT cutover disruptions. Although rising fuel prices created near-term pressure, higher diesel costs should improve intermodal economics and support truck-to-rail conversion,” said Mr. Poirier.
* Citi’s Ariel Rosa to US$97 from US$93 with a “buy” rating.
“CMO John Brooks noted, ‘just about everything outside of [CP’s] coal business has inflected positive,’ on continued growth in Grain given the record crop, Energy/Chemicals/Plastics vols. stabilizing from 1Q headwinds, Forest Products stabilizing despite tariffs boosted by truck conversion and regional construction projects, Metals/Minerals growth on industrial development, business wins in Autos, and Intermodal partnerships ramp. With the soft start to the year, we fear ‘26 targets could be difficult without meaningful business wins and resolution of macro uncertainty,” said Mr. Rosa.
In other analyst actions:
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies reduced his targets for AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T) to $101 from $115, Stantec Inc. (STN-T) to $140 from $160 and WSP Global Inc. (WSP-T) to $280 from $320, keeping “buy” ratings for each. The average is $118.57, $163.38 and $314.38, respectively.
“One of the key takeaways from my recent analyst marketing is how sour the mood is on ATRL/STN/WSP,” said Mr. Gillies. “This is a drastic change from the prior five-years where these stocks were top of mind to most investors given the robust growth outlooks and continuously improving estimates’ outlook. Fundamentally, we believe mid-to-high teens EPS growth outlooks is a good base case over the next three to five years. Valuation remains the primary issue due to ongoing, elevated concerns regarding terminal value risk due to AI. In our view, valuations have upside to 20-21 times 2027E P/E, but are unlikely to reach prior highs unless clarity emerges on how AI will impact these businesses. We provide our updated views on these stocks (including trimming target prices for ATRL, STN and WSP by 12 per cent on average). There is no change to estimates. We believe WSP is the best value as it trades 16.8 times 202E P/E with a 25-27E EPS CAGR of 18 per cent. The stock is admittedly devoid of major near-term catalysts, but the value in context of growth is compelling for a firm that is well-equipped to deal with AI disruption. We expect value to be surfaced in these stocks, the question is when.”
* Raymond James’ Daniel Magder initiated coverage of Vancouver-based Fireweed Metals Corp. (FWZ-X) with an “outperform” rating and $6.50 target. The average is $7.08.
“Fireweed controls a district-scale critical minerals portfolio at Macmillan Pass in Yukon, anchored by the large-scale Macpass zinc-lead-silver project and the Mactung tungsten project, the world’s largest high-grade undeveloped tungsten deposit. With substantial resource scale at Macpass, advancing feasibility work at Mactung supported by U.S. and Canadian government funding, and recent $61.5-millon financing, we believe Fireweed is well positioned to benefit from growing demand for secure Western critical mineral supply,” said Mr. Magder.
* Scotia’s Orest Wowkodaw cut his First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T) target to $44 from $47 with a “sector outperform” rating, while Canaccord Genuity’s Dalton Baretto reduced his target to $46 from $48 with a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $44.30.
“FM reported Q1/26 results that were well below consensus expectations (largely due to Cu/Au hedging losses). 2026 guidance was formally adjusted to reflect the addition of Cobre Panama (CP) ore processing. Given our lower estimates related to higher cost assumptions, we view the update as slightly negative for the shares. We rate FM shares SO based on our expectation of a near-term CP resolution and restart, an attractive relative valuation, and high leverage to Ci,” said Mr. Wowkodaw.
* RBC’s Jimmy Shan cut his Morguard North American Residential REIT (MRG.UN-T) target by $1 to $20 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $22.
“MRG reported FFO/unit was $0.41, down 4.7 per cent year-over-year, vs. RBC/consensus of $0.38/$0.40. NOI was in line with positive variance due to lower interest from timing of debt refinancing. We expect CDN portfolio to remain soft given new supply and NPR outflows and U.S. portfolio to show modest improvement through 2026 (Chicago led), resulting in a decline of 6 per cent FFO/unit in 2026. The decline is partially cushioned by accretion from TDAM acquisition with leverage increasing to 56 per cent from 50 per cent,” said Mr. Shan.
* Scotia’s Kevin Fisk raised his Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T) target to $19 from $17 with a “sector outperform” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s Aaron Bilkoski to $18 from $17 with a “buy” rating, ATB Cormark’s Patrick O’Rourke to $18.50 from $17.50 with an “outperform” rating and Raymond James’ Luke Davis to $20 from $18 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $16.25.
“Q1/26 CFPS came in 14 per cent higher than consensus due to strong realized prices, a 4-per-cent production beat, lower opex, and lower hedging losses. 2026 production guidance increased 2 per cent due to solid operational execution throughout the portfolio. Management noted the Karr plug-and-perf (P&P) pilot has been successful, which will lead to lower well costs. WCP is one of our mid-cap top picks and we believe the company is a solid choice for investors looking for Montney exposure following the ARX sale. We believe the ramp up of Lator Phase 1 in Q4/26 will be a catalyst for the stock as well as continued opex/capex improvements and solid operational execution. On strip the company trades at an attractive 2026 DAFCF yield of 12 per cent compared to a peer average of 8 per cent. We expect a positive share price reaction,” said Mr. Fisk.