Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Shopify Inc.’s (SHOP-Q, SHOP-T) growth momentum remains robust, according to recent third party data, making it more likely that the ecommerce company’s third quarter results and fourth quarter guidance exceed consensus expectations, said RBC analyst Paul Treiber.
“Additionally, Shopify’s recent price increase equates to an incremental 110 basis points uplift to annualized growth. We expect Shopify’s valuation to continue re-rating higher on sustained strong growth and growing recognition as an AI winner,” Mr. Treiber said in a note to clients.
He maintained an “outperform” rating and raised his price target to US$200 from US$180.
He detailed the data he used for reaching his conclusions: “U.S. Census data indicates U.S. e-commerce sales rose 8.2% Y/Y in the two-month period of August September (adjusts for timing of Prime Day), strengthening from 7.4% Y/Y in April-May. Applying last quarter’s spread between Shopify’s GMV [Gross Merchandise Value] and April-May implies Shopify’s Q3 GMV grew ~32.3% Y/Y to $121.8B, ahead of consensus at $119.9B (+30.3% Y/Y) and RBC at $120.5B (+31.0% Y/Y).”
Meanwhile, “Data points indicate continued merchant growth and market share gains. Store Leads data indicates Shopify’s total merchants rose 15% Y/Y in Q3, strengthening from Q2 (11%). Plus merchants increased 24% Y/Y, up from Q2 (21%) and the highest level of growth since Q4/CY21. Shopify is gaining share from competitors, evidenced by key peers declining 14% Y/Y. Notable enterprise wins include Dior, Clinique, MAC Cosmetics, and CORSAIR. RBC ElementsTM shows Shop App MAUs rose 39% Y/Y, while unique visitors to admin.shopify.com grew 41% Y/Y.”
Elevated net outflows at Fiera Capital Corp. (FSZ-T) prompted a ratings downgrade by RBC analyst Bart Dziarski to the equivalent of a sell rating. He is also warning of another possible cut to the company’s dividend.
His rating is now “underperform” instead of “sector perform” and his price target was also cut to C$3.25 from C$4.70.
Mr. Dziarski noted that third quarter net outflows of $8.3 billion were much higher than his $3.0 billion forecast.
“Fiera’s Q3/26 net outflow rate implies 20% on an annualized basis, a concerning level, in our view, particularly as this is the first quarter following PM [portfolio manager] changes and litigation involving a departing PM. During these periods of internal disruption, consultants generally advise clients to re-allocate capital from the existing manager and so we believe future net outflows are at risk of remaining elevated,” Mr. Dziarski said in a note. “As a result, we have reduced our net flows estimates to now assume a 12% net outflow rate (was 4%) in 2027 and a 4% net outflow rate (was 3%) in 2028.”
Investors, he said, are already bracing for a dividend cut.
“With Fiera stock currently yielding about 13%, we believe the market is pricing in a dividend cut, which would mark a 2nd dividend cut following the company cutting its dividend by 50% in 2025. Fiera had net debt of $723M in Q2/26 and a 3.8x leverage ratio. We estimate dividend payout ratios of 49% in 2026, 55% in 2027, and 53% in 2028 and leverage of 4.0x in 2027 & 3.8x in 2028. While the payout ratio is below 100%, we would not rule out a scenario where management would reduce the dividend to preserve cash,” he said.
CIBC analysts led by Anita Soni downgraded Barrick Mining Corp. (B-N, ABX-T), to “neutral” from “outperformer”, citing the stock’s outperformance relative to its peers over the past year.
“We believe this reflects improved operational execution and the market recognizing Fourmile’s value. Share buybacks funded by the IPO proceeds and the partial sale of Fourmile to Newmont (net ~1.5B, expected in Q4), could provide further upside,” the CIBC analysts said in a note.
Barrick Mining has targeted the end of 2026 for completing the IPO of its North American gold assets.
“While we do not expect IPO proceeds to materialize over the next few months, Barrick will need to demonstrate that the value proposition of the North American asset IPO can translate into an uplift in the share price for the overall company,” the analysts said.
CIBC’s price target on Barrick was cut to US$49 from US$57.
CIBC also cut its price targets on several other mining stocks as it lowered its gold and silver commodity price forecasts.
The bank now forecasts the gold price to average US$4,500/oz in Q4/26 and US$5,200 and US$5,500 in 2027 and 2028, respectively.
National Bank analyst Zachary Evershed is maintaining a bullish outlook on shares of AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. (AGTF-T) ahead of third quarter results that are expected the third week of November.
“We forecast $665 million in sales (Street: $677 million), a Street-low $49 million in Adj. EBITDA on 7.4% margins (Street: $53.3 million | 7.9%) and Adj. EPS of $0.20 (Street: $0.29),” he detailed in a preview note on AGT’s earnings.
Following revisions to reflect harvest and logistics delays and the introduction of the analyst’s 2028 estimates, his price target was raised to C$28.50 from C$26.
“We reiterate our outperform rating as we see continued organic EBITDA growth supported by the ramp-up of pasta production in India and higher-margin BFY products at Minot,” Mr. Evershed said in a note.
National Bank analyst Ahmed Abdullah raised his price target on Methanex Corp. (MEOH-Q) to US$79 from US$70 while reiterating an “outperform” rating as he looked ahead to the company’s upcoming quarterly results.
He said continued supply pressures are keeping pricing for methanol elevated.
“We now see [third quarter] revs of $1,324M (was $1,285M, CE $1,297M), Adj. EBITDA of $461M (was $447M, CE $465M) and Adj. EPS of $2.74 (was $2.71, CE $2.77). Our average realized price (ARP) moves up by +$10/MT to ~$490/MT (+42% y/y; -7% q/q from peak) with total sales volumes of ~2.5MMT as MEOH works through some inventory build carried on from 2Q,” the analyst detailed in a note.
“Beyond 3Q, we raised our methanol price forecasts on firmer market pricing expectations as Middle East supply remains constrained. We raised our 4Q ARP estimate to $495/MT from $440/MT, which implies a 2026E ARP of $465/MT, up $15/MT from our prior forecast. In 2027, our ARP assumptions moved higher to $405/MT from $380/MT, as upward pricing pressure is expected to continue into 1Q27, followed by an expected easing through the balance of the year,” he said.
Raymond James analysts led by Stephen Boland trimmed their price targets on Canadian property and casualty (P&C) insurance stocks, expecting near-term pressure in their upcoming quarterly results.
Definity Financial Corp.’s (DFY-T) price target was cut to C$84 from C$85.
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.’s (FFH-T) target was cut to C$2,900 from C$3,000.
Intact Financial Corp.’s (IFC-T) target was cut to C$305 from C$335.
And Trisura Group Ltd.’s (TSU-T) target was cut to C$57.50 from C$58.50.
Fairfax, Intact, and Trisura are rated “outperform” by Raymond James, while Definity is rated “market perform”.
“We expect a challenging quarter for headline results, driven by elevated CAT [catastrophe] losses at IFC and DFY, while the increase in bond yields is likely to create near-term pressure on BVPS [book value per share] through mark-to-market unrealized losses on fixed-income holdings. Sector valuations have also pulled back ahead of earnings, with IFC and DFY both declining >10% since July 31, despite a largely flat S&P/TSX,” Mr. Boland said in a note to clients."
He’s more optimistic in the longer term.
“Despite what is shaping up to be a difficult quarter, we believe underlying insurance conditions remain favourable, particularly in Canadian Personal lines, where elevated CAT losses in the quarter should support firm pricing conditions. At the same time, higher yields should support recurring investment income as the group’s relatively short-duration fixed-income portfolios mature and are reinvested. We therefore view the current rate environment as a near-term drag on book value growth, but a longer-term benefit to earnings.”
Overall, he said “the pullback in valuations, combined with a favourable underlying operating environment in most business lines, creates an attractive entry point for investors seeking relatively defensive equity exposure. Given the nondiscretionary nature of insurance, we expect underwriting earnings to remain comparatively resilient through a weaker economic environment, with higher reinvestment yields providing an additional source of earnings growth over time.”
Scotiabank analyst John Zamparo resumed coverage of Aritzia Inc. (ATZ-T) with a “sector outperform” rating and a one-year target price of $175.
“Despite remarkable growth, Aritzia still holds significant white space to expand its U.S. store base of ~80 (vs. direct peers who average >300),” Mr. Zamparo said in a note to clients. “We believe there’s visibility to high-single-digit store growth and mid-single-digit comp growth leading to 20%+ EPS growth over the next few years.”
“Moreover, we see compelling opportunities for category expansion and geographic expansion, which could add ~$0.90 and ~$0.50 in EPS, respectively, in the next five years. Store paybacks of ~12 months are exceptional, and investors can likely still look forward to significant margin expansion from inventory management efforts. Primary risks are the inevitable comps deceleration and volatility inherent in fashion. That said, we believe we’re still early innings on a long-term growth story, yet valuation remains approachable at ~23x C27E EPS,” he said.