Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier sees Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) “lining up for a smooth landing after temporary turbulence.”
“While there were initial fears of an asset-based recession and its correlation with bizjet industry demand, the U.S. administration’s announcement of concessions and full USMCA compliance by BBD’s aircraft, along with supportive flight activity and inventory data, make us confident that BBD can achieve a book-to-bill ratio of at least 0.9 times for the year,” he said. “For context, Gulfstream considers a 0.9 times book-to-bill ratio to be achievable.”
On Thursday, shares of the Montreal-based business aircraft manufacturer dropped 9.4 per cent despite saying it expects to sell more private jets and boost both profit and revenue this year.
Bombardier on Thursday reported net income of US$44-million or $0.37 per diluted share for its latest quarter and US$248-million on an adjusted EBITDA basis. Revenue climbed 19 per cent versus the same period last year, to US$1.5-billion.
“We now conservatively assume a book-to-bill ratio of 0.9 times in 2025 (before a rebound to 1.0 times in 2026 and 2027), leading to FCF of US$571-million (US$863-milllion in 2026 and US$982-million in 2025),” said Mr. Poirier. “While we are reducing our forecasts, we view the results/commentary as more positive than initially expected given BBD’s ability to still deliver US$500-million in FCF in a potentially depressed booking scenario is quite impressive and demonstrates the resiliency/transformation of its business. It is also important to remember that the bizjet industry’s historical trough book-to-bill ratio was 0.7–0.8 times during the worst recessionary periods and stayed there for only 1–2 quarters before rebounding relatively quickly.
“Management closes the door on buybacks this year. When asked about capital allocation on the call, management firmly stated that debt repayment remains the #1 focus, with a goal of paying down an incremental US$600-million of debt by year-end so it can achieve the leverage target of 2.0–2.5 times unveiled at its investor day. Once this is accomplished, BBD stated that returning capital to shareholders would be on the table in 2026. We now forecast BBD ending 2025 with leverage of 2.2 times before a further improvement to 1.5 times in 2026 (no buybacks in our model, which provides additional upside)."
In response to the company’s newly introduced guidance and management’s comments, Mr. Poirier reduced his full-year earnings expectations through 2027, leading to a cut to his target for Bombarier shares to $140 from $142 with a “buy” rating. The average target on the Street is $113.93, according to LSEG data.
“We reiterate our bullish stance,” he concluded.
Elsewhere, other analysts making adjustments include:
* RBC’s James McGarragle to $108 from $101 with an “outperform” rating.
“We came away positive on the demand outlook following the conference call reflecting commentary that while a number of order discussions stalled around the March timeframe due to tariff uncertainty, management is now seeing much better traction and activity as things progress post CUSMA compliance announcement. Key is that we see this as setting the stage for an improvement in book-to-bill as 2025 progresses and for FCF toward the high-end of guidance. As clarity surrounding the aerospace outlook increases, we continue to see upside as significant and flag Bombardier as our top investment idea,” said Mr. McGarragle.
* BMO’s Fadi Chamoun to $130 from $135 with an “outperform” rating.
“BBD has consistently delivered performance at or above plan in recent years. The financial framework for F2025 is robust considering the backdrop (macro, tariffs), and the company continues to make steady progress on further reducing leverage and growing revenues in higher-margin and capital-light segments (aftermarket, defense), which should prove positive for margins and free cash flow. Although risk has increased, the business jet cycle remains on solid footing,” he said.
* Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $105 from $109 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We believe Q1 was negatively impacted by tariff noise/speculation, which was mostly visible in higher-margin services revenue and orders,” said Mr. Gupta. “However, it appears that conditions normalized in March and April. With more visibility on trade policies now, management was able to provide formal guidance for 2025, unlike last quarter. It is not overly surprising that guidance is below BBD’s prior 2025 objectives given the effects of changing trade policies on bizjet industry and macro. At this time, we view guidance as reasonable, barring any major positive/negative changes in tariffs (including USMCA exemption). While we continue to see long-term value at 6.8 times/6.3 times EV/EBITDA on 2025 / 2026 estimates (FCF yield 10 per cent), we prefer to remain on the sidelines in light of rising macro uncertainties and pending guidance execution over the next few quarters. That said, we remain encouraged by management’s ability to improve margins and leverage ratio in a relatively challenging macro environment.”
* TD Cowen’s Tim James to $128 from $133 with a “buy” rating.
“Negative stock price response suggests focus on non-recurring benefit in Q1/25 adjusted EBITDA/EPS and concerns with re-introduced 2025 guide - short sighted, in our view,” he said. “We recommend focus on year-over-year growth implied by 2025 guide (up 14 per cent/up 180 per cent adj EBITDA/FCF), unchanged long-term earnings/FCF/deleveraging potential and magnitude of guide
revision (adj EBITDA down 4.6 per cent) relative to recent valuation weakness."
* CIBC’s Kevin Chiang to $115 from $106 with an “outperformer” rating.
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While Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) delivered a better-than-expected quarter, ATB Capital Markets analyst Chris Murray is remaining “cautious about the near-term outlook, particularly given the uncertainty around international intermodal and cross-border industrial freight,” keeping him neutral on its shares.
“Guidance remains underpinned by expectations for low to mid-single-digit volume growth, which is expected to favour H2/25 given the timing around CN - growth initiatives and notably softer comps given labour stoppages in H2/24,” he said." CN expects volumes to be weak in Q2/25, particularly surrounding intermodal volumes in response to the tariffs imposed in arly April, combined with an elevated comp. We have lowered our RTM [revenue ton mile] expectations for 2025 to account for expected weakness in Q2/25 (down 2.6 per cent year-over-year quarter-to-date) and increased uncertainty facing core freight types."
After the bell on Thursday, CN reported revenue of $4.4-billion, up 3.6 per cent year-over-year and matching the estimates of both Mr. Murray and the Street. Adjusted fully diluted earnings per share grew 7.5 per cent to $1.85, topping expecttions ($1.79 and $1.78, respectively).
“Stronger-than-expected EPS reflected better-than-expected cost containment despite facing significant weather-based headwinds in February,” the analyst said “Management maintained guidance for 10.0-15.0-per-cent EPS growth in 2025, reflecting expectations for low to mid-single-digit volume growth, positive pricing conditions, and greater operating leverage, with growth remaining H2 weighted. The Company acknowledged that tariffs now pose a greater risk to its outlook, with volumes (particularly intermodal) expected to be weak in Q2/25, which is already evident in CN’s weekly data, before recovering in H2/25, which is reflected in our estimates.”
“Management remained positive on several freight types and pricing conditions and believes its network efficiency and flexibility position it to respond to potentially softening macro conditions. Management confirmed that it maintains minimal direct exposure to Chinese products destined for U.S. markets (2.0 per cent of total freight revenue) and was constructive on its outlook for bulk, chemicals and plastics, and intermodal in H2/25.”
After lowering his 2025 and 2026 revenue and earnings expectations to fall in line with guidance, Mr. Murray cut his target for CP shares to $156 from $159, maintaining a “sector perform” rating. The average is $166.67.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* BMO’s Fadi Chamoun to $168 from $175 with an “outperform” rating.
“Despite heightened trade/macro risk, CNR bucked the trend amongst Transportation companies this earnings season and reaffirmed its outlook for 2025. This highlights the unique characteristics of the company’s earnings algorithm this year. Over the medium-term, we continue to believe that CNR’s network enjoys several growth avenues across multiple end markets. While we are moderating our estimates by 1 per cent and lowering our target price to $168 (recognizes pullback in market valuation levels), we see the risk/ reward as attractive with valuation trending currently at historical lows,” said Mr. Chamoun.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $160 from $169 with a “buy” rating
“Given the lack of visibility on the volume prospects of CN’s initiatives and how tied they are to the Canadian industrial economy (Canada manufacturing PMI fell to 45.3 in April, its lowest level since May 2020), as well as the potential for the loonie to continue to strengthen (Desjardins Economic Studies now forecasts US$0.74/C$1 by year-end, which would remove any FX tailwind for CN), we have remained conservative and decreased our estimates,” said Mr. Poirier.
* RBC’s Walter Spracklin to $163 from $165 with an “outperform” rating.
A few puts and takes on CN’s Q1 result: on one hand, it was a better than expected quarter; and mgmt maintained its full year guidance for low- to mid-single digit volumes and EPS growth of 10-15 per cent, which was encouraging. On the other hand, management pointed to an ‘air pocket’ that is expected to cause volumes to come off in Q2. Moreover, the appreciation in CAD since the guide was issued in Jan will be a sequential headwind if sustained. All that said, valuation remains compelling in our view," said Mr. Spracklin.
* Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $160 from $166 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“Although we were already at the low-end of guidance due to several macro unknowns ahead, we have elected to further reduce estimates given the risk to CNR’s FX assumption. We have also modestly trimmed our P/E multiple to 18.5 times (was 19 times) due to prolonged macro undertainty. Q1 turned out better than feared as CNR delivered positive operating leverage, thanks to continued strong pricing and tight cost control along with ongoing productivity initiatives. Any demand pull-forward was offset by constraints from weather. While operational momentum continues into Q2, volumes are facing tough comps and U.S. tariff impact, which makes us relatively cautious in the very near term. However, 2H is setting up quite well as CNR is lapping easy comps (industry disruptions last year) and CNR-specific growth opportunities are coming to fruition. With the stock undeperforming peers over the past few years, valuation has compressed to 17 times NTM [next 12 months], a six-year low (excluding March 2020) and an attractive entry point, in our view,” he said.
* JP Morgan’s Brian Ossenbeck to $162 from $170 with an “overweight” rating.
* CIBC’s Kevin Chiang to $146 from $157 with a “neutral” rating.
* UBS’ Thomas Wadewitz to $174 from $172 with a “buy” rating.
* Barclays’ Brandon Oglenski to $145 from $150 with an “equal-weight” rating.
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Emphasizing it’s “still meeting rising expectations,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds sees Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-N, TRI-T) as “sturdy and well anchored” following Thursday’s release of first-quarter 2025 results that narrowly exceeded his expectations and a reiterating of its full-year 2025 and 2026 despite shifting macroeconomic turbulence.
“While we remain patient for more timely and/or attractive accumulation points, we continue to view Thomson Reuters as a core holding within our coverage underpinned by accelerating organic revenue growth, highly resilient earnings, a strong balance sheet and healthy FCF generation and capital returns,” he said. “We believe current valuation levels (i.e., more than 25 times FTM [forward 12-month] EV/EBITDA) are fundamentally justified provided that: (i) management now meets or exceeds a 7–8-per-cent organic revenue growth trajectory on a sustained basis without meaningful changes to the current margin, capex, and FCF conversion profile; and (ii) solid execution on the GenAI playbook continues with little change to the current GenAI narrative including perceived opportunities and risks.“
Shares of the Toronto-based company were narrowly higher after it reported revenue rose 1 per cent to US$1.9-billion in the three months that ended March 31, just shy of analysts’ estimate of US$1.93-billion. After adjusting to exclude lost revenue from asset sales and fluctuating foreign currencies, revenue was up 6 per cent year-over-year.
Thomson Reuters reported first-quarter profit of US$484-million, or 96 US cents per share, compared with US$478-million, or US$1.06 per share, in the same quarter last year. On average, analysts expected earnings per share of US$1.01, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.
Mr. McReynolds thinks its “earnings resilience kicking in once again with no change to the outlook.”
“Despite macro volatility and tariff-induced ‘nervousness’ among customers, the 2025 and 2026 outlooks were reiterated with management: (i) indicating no change to the demand environment through April (net sales, renewals); (ii) reiterating a resilient revenue mix that comprises more than 80 per cent recurring revenues, multi-year contracts and nondiscretionary services; (iii) confirming continued growth in government revenues (8 per cent of total revenues comprising 60-65 per cent legal/40 per cent federal and providing efficiency, security and fraud prevention solutions); (iv) highlighting that 50 per cent of transaction revenues (12 per cnet of total revenues) are defacto recurring (tax filings, audits); and (v) acknowledging cyclicality within Global Print (mitigated by 45 per cent of revenues under multi-year contracts) and Reuters News (with 10-15 per cent of revenues advertising and events),” he said.
Also believing “increase visibility on sustaining 2026 organic revenue growth rates for the Big 3 beyond 2026 (while not perfect) is beginning to emerge reflecting an improving revenue mix,” Mr. McReynolds raised his target for Thomson Reuters shares to US$185 from US$182, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average target is US$181.17.
Others making changes include:
* Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige to US$181 from US$175 with a “hold” rating.
“TRI reported Q1/25 results this morning with adj. EBITDA and EPS ahead of expectations. However, we believe that much of the variance was due to expense timing, thus guidance is unchanged and our own estimates are only modestly revised. The central takeaway from the quarter and the call is that TRI’s businesses at this point is facing little to no impact from the ongoing macro challenges, including cuts to government spending. On the other hand, underlying growth trends remain intact. We have upped our target,” said Mr. Galappatthige.
* BMO’s Tim Casey to $280 from $265 with an “outperform” rating.
“TRI continues to launch new GenAI product features supporting a transition to agentic expert-guided workflows. We believe business resiliency, mix, operating momentum and balance sheet support TRI’s valuation,” said Mr. Casey.
* JP Morgan’s Andrew Steinerman to US$178 from US$177 with a “neutral” rating.
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Following a “blow-out” fourth quarter to its fiscal 2025,Stifel analyst Martin Landry thinks Aritzia Inc.‘s (ATZ-T) momentum continues to impress, however he emphasized the potential impact of the global tariff battle “dampen” the Vancouver-based retailer’s outlook.
After the bell on Thursday, it reported revenue of $895-million for the quarter, up 31 per cent year-over-year and exceeding both Mr. Landry’s $851-milllion estimate and the consensus forecast of $846-million. Comparable sales grew 26 per cent and also topped expectations (17.3 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively).
Aritzia also introduced guidance for its current year, which Mr. Landry thinks “appears conservative, as it reflects a significant economic slowdown.” ”
It includes a net revenue assumption of $3.05-3.25 billion, in line with consensus expectations at the mid-point.
““The outlook guides for FY2026 adjusted EBITDA to be in the 14-15-per-cent range, versus 14.8 per cent in FY2025, and below our expectations of 16.4 per cent and the consensus of 15.5 per cent,” he said. “Aritzia expects progressive comparable sales slowdown and increasing margin pressure from tariffs toward the end of FY2026. For Q1FY26 Aritzia is guiding for revenue of $620-640 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 320 bps year-over-year, to 14 per cent.”
“Tariffs are expected to pressure EBITDA margins by 400 basis points this year, 200 basis points of which are offset by mitigated measures. The remaining 200 basis points is absorbed by the company and explains the difference between our previous EBITDA margin forecasts and our updated estimates. We had assumed that the company would pass all incremental costs not offset by mitigated measures. Surprisingly, the company’s FY27 long-term targets still hold, although they imply significant margin expansion. ”
The analyst thinks the retailer used conservative assumptions used to build its fiscal 2026 guidance and also pointed to the steps it is taking to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
“Management anticipates a material deceleration in comparable sales as the year unfolds and expects Q4 comparable sales to be negative,” he said. “While this is a potential scenario, there is also a likelihood that the company’s momentum continues into the summer and the fall. We don’t expect the Q4FY25 comparable sales growth of 26 per cent to be sustainable, but we believe there is a scenario where comparable sales growth remains positive throughout the entire FY26.”
“Management has established an action plan to mitigate the impact of the tariffs on its profitability. These include: (1) diversifying the company’s supply chain away from China, (2) sharing of costs with vendors, (3) continuing to improve price realization (IMUs) and (4) costs reductions internally. As of this fall, Aritzia will have reduced its sourcing exposure to China to 20 per cent, and potentially into the single-digit range by next spring.”
After reducing his earnings per share estimates by 15 per cent for 2026 and by 15 per cent for FY27 to reflect management’s guidance, while emphasizing he sees upside to his numbers and “a likelihood of upward guidance revision as the year unfolds,”
Mr. Landry lowered his target for Aritzia shares by $6 to $67, keeping a “buy” recommendation. The average is $68.10.
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* BMO’s Stephen MacLeod to $67 from $74 with an “outperform” rating.
“Q4/25 was a strong beat, reflecting positive comps across all channels and geographies (U.S. up 48.5 per cent); momentum has continued into Q1. While tariffs are a 400 basis points margin headwind, Aritzia has identified mitigants to offset (50 per cent from already-existing margin drivers; 50 per cent from other initiatives). Notwithstanding these pressures (H2-weighted), Aritzia is well-positioned to execute on its significant U.S. growth opportunity, reflecting its strong momentum, growing brand affinity and Everyday Luxury positioning,” said Mr. MacLeod.
* RBC’s Irene Nattel to $68 from $65 with an “outperform” rating.
“Strong and better than expected Q4/F25 and quarter-to-date momentum point to strength of ATZ brand, customer relationship and initiatives to restore margin,” said Ms. Nattel. “Despite wavering consumer confidence and spending, ATZ is enjoying growth across channels and regions, even in Canada. But all of this good is being offset by the impact of tariffs on margins, and potentially, macro backdrop/spending. F26 guidance reflects realistic range of outcomes on consumer spending and initiatives to offset margin headwinds. Forecasts largely unchanged, reiterating constructive OP rating.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $66 from $82 with a “buy” rating.
“ATZ reported strong 4Q results with a beat across key metrics. While strong momentum is continuing in 1Q to date, we expect 2H FY26 to be challenged with the flow-through of tariffs, continuing macro pressures and softening consumer demand. We are further reducing our estimates closer to the low end of management’s FY26 guidance,” said Mr. Li.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan to $64 from $70 with a “buy” rating.
“In our view, there are plenty of positives to take away from the quarter. Though investors may scrutinize the F2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance falling short of consensus, it is important to note: (1) both Q1/F26 revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance came in ahead of expectations, representing underlying brand strength, (2) new boutiques continue to track towards paybacks of 12 months or less, better than the company’s 12-18 month expectation, and (3) mid-to-high teens year-over-year square footage growth is expected for F2026, and when coupled with the carryover impact of flagships opened towards the end of F2025, supports the company’s net revenue growth outlook for F2026 despite facing tough comps in H2/ F26. In all, we come away from the quarter with deeper conviction in our belief that Aritzia is well-equipped to weather the near-term uncertainty related to tariffs,” said Mr. Hannan.
* TD’s Brian Morrison to $70 from $66 with a “buy” rating.
“Aritzia’s Q1/F25 results were outstanding across the board,” said Mr. Morrison. “That said the focus was on F2026 guidance and the ability to navigate tariffs. Despite tariff/economic headwinds we believe EPS growth of 15-20 per cent is reasonable, that should theoretically accelerate in F2027. This outlook along with a strong FCF outlook and net cash financial position should warrant a premium valuation.”
* Raymond James’ Michael Glen to $60 from $55 with an “outperform” rating.
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Separately, Mr. Landry said tariff uncertainty has “blurred” the near-term outlook for Toronto-based toymaker Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T), however he thinks its current share price, sitting a five-year low, provides “an appealing entry point” for investors with a longer-term horizon.
“TOY reported Q1/25 results that were slightly better than our expectations. However, investors focused on the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese exports,” he said. “Despite significant mitigating measures, Spin Master may not be able to fully offset the costs of tariffs, if they remain at current levels of 145 per cent on Chinese exports into the United States. Hence, Spin Master may face margin pressures that are difficult to quantify. This led management to withdraw the annual guidance on revenues and EBITDA margins. Unfortunately, this clouds the outlook near-term and may keep investors on the sideline. However, the competitive landscape could change in favor of well capitalized companies such as TOY as smaller competitors, potentially facing a similar financial stress, may have to fold operations.”
Mr. Landry thinks it is “easy for investors to lose sight of the big picture” given “the significant noise and media attention around tariffs.
“Recall that Spin Master entered into 2025 with good momentum, guiding for revenue growth of 4-6 per cent, a faster growth rate than its peers. ... Spin Master has a strong pipeline of innovation that was showcased at the NYC Toy Fair, especially with movie theme toys that will be supported by high profile movie releases this year,” he said.
“In addition, Spin Master has a strong balance sheet, with a leverage of 0.8 times net debt/ EBITDA, providing the company with a margin of safety. While tariffs on Chinese exports are extremely high currently, there is a potential scenario where they are renegotiated lower down. Under this scenario, Spin Master’s outlook may not be as bad as currently feared by investors.”
After cutting his 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates by 12 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively, to reflect lower revenue and margin assumptions, Mr. Landry lowered his target for Spin Master shares to $38 from $40, reiterating a “buy” rating. The average is $34.43.
Elsewhere, Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan downgraded Spin Master to “hold” from “buy” and dropped his target to $26 from $35.
“Spin Master’s Q1/25 earnings results were ahead of expectations, though the key takeaway for investors will be the withdrawn guidance. Tariffs on Chinese imports into the US have ratcheted up significantly since the company introduced 2025 guidance in February, making it difficult for Spin Master to predict where profitability goes in the near term. We recognize that the company is better positioned than most in the industry, given its greater scale, and having already made progress through cost savings initiatives and rebasing its supply chains to countries with lower tariff rates. We also remain positive on Spin Master’s ability to capture market share over the long term while establishing and growing properties within its highly profitable Entertainment and Digital Games segments. With that said, we expect that the withdrawn guidance, coupled with a lack of visibility into when US-China trade tensions will ease, are likely to keep Spin Master shares rangebound in the near term. Accordingly, we are moving to the sidelines,” said Mr. Hannan.
Analysts making target adjustments include:
* RBC’s Drew McReynolds to $31 from $32 with an “outperform” rating.
“Looking through stronger than expected Q1/25 results, the stock now requires progress to be made towards a more constructive global tariff regime,” he said.
* TD’s Brian Morrison to $32 from $35 with a “buy” rating.
“Spin Master Q1/25 results were solid, but the focus is the impact of tariffs upon the outlook and ability to mitigate. The uncertainty is a negative as it resulted in 2025 guidance being withdrawn; however we see value in the current share price due to its strong financial position, the value of Spin’s IP, and upon its financial potential as tariff clarity emerges/ offsetting action taken,” said Mr. Morrison.
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In a report titled Discovering a Great Canadian Gold Producer, National Bank Financial analyst Rabi Nizami initiated coverage of Discovery Silver Corp. (DSV-T) with an “outperform” recommendation, touting the impact of its recent transformative US$425-milion acquisition of the Porcupine Complex near Timmins, Ont. from Newmont Corp. (NGT-T).
“Porcupine provides immediate production and free cash flow to self-fund significant exploration and optimization opportunities, located within a safe jurisdiction in Ontario’s Tier-1 Timmins camp, home to a capable work force, substantial mining infrastructure and spare mill capacity,” he said.
“Over the next five years, we expect steady production growth towards over 300 koz/yr (10-per-cent compound annual growth rate), along with cost optimization and numerous development opportunities to establish a larger production base with attractive margins over the longer term.”
In justifying his bullish stance, Mr. Nizami also emphasized the Toronto-based company’s “proven leadership with [a] track record of value creation.”
“Discovery’s leadership team, led by Tony Makuch (ex-Kirkland Lake Gold), brings a strong operational track record as mine builders, optimizers and dealmakers, with deep expertise in the Timmins camp and a clear strategy to grow production, reduce costs and unlock value across a consolidated portfolio at Porcupine,” he said. “Exploration potential remains substantial across the 1,400 km2 land package which hosts both near-mine and regional targets, including a significant 11 Moz Inferred resource at the Dome Mine which is not currently modeled.
“Discovery is beginning its producer path with a healthy balance sheet with US$170-million in cash, a US$100-million undrawn credit facility, and strong strategic shareholders including Newmont (15 per cent), Franco-Nevada (approximately 14 per cent) and Eric Sprott (15 per cent). Additionally, the Cordero silver project in Mexico offers long-term optionality, with a 2024 feasibility study outlining a large-scale, low-cost silver-gold-zinc-lead operation with significant re-rating potential upon confirmation of permits.”
The analyst set a target of $4 per share, exceeding the average on the Street of $3.36.
“Our Outperform rating considers the embedded potential of the Porcupine project to deliver free cash flows to fund growth, optimizations and exploration across the portfolio. Our target price is based on 5.0 EV/EBITDA 2026 (50 per cent) and 0.80x P/NAV (50 per cent), which is comparable to Intermediate peers in our coverage and balances near-term performance with the medium-term growth trajectory and optionality on the Cordero project. Discovery currently trades at a discount to mid-tier producer peers, as we estimate P/NAV of 0.56 times and EV/EBITDA 2026 of 3.2 times.”
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In other analyst actions:
* UBS’ Daniel Major downgraded Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) to “neutral” from “buy” and cut his taret to $13 from $13.50. The average is $14.98.
* CIBC’s Jamie Kubik raised his target for Advantage Energy Ltd. (AAV-T) to $12 from $11.50 with a “neutral” rating. The average is $14.05.
* CIBC’s Sumayya Syed reduced her Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN-T) target to $17.50 from $19 with a “neutral” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $16.25 from $16.50 with a “market perform” rating, Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Rothschild to $15.50 from $17.75 with a “hold” rating, Scotia’s Mario Saric to $19 from $20.50 with a “sector outperform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar to $17 from $18 with a “hold” rating. The average is $17.47.
“Management was cautiously optimistic on its near-term outlook for office, though it acknowledged that the constantly evolving US trade policy and a softening economic outlook for Canada could impact its ability to achieve its 2025 targets. While SP NOI turned positive, the leasing pipeline improved and retention was in line with historical averages, we continue to see risks tilted to the downside. We would stay on the sidelines until we have more clarity on a sustained recovery in fundamentals,” said Mr. Kalmar.
* Ms. Syed moved her target for Primaris REIT (PMZ.UN-T) to $17.50 from $18 with an “outperformer” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Mario Saric to $17.50 from $18 with a “sector perform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar to $17 from $17.50 with a “buy” recommendation. The average is $17.47.
“While the HBC bankruptcy and macro volatility have weighed on the unit price, PMZ delivered another solid quarter,” said Mr. Kalmar. “Earnings guidance was unchanged and management was optimistic about both the leasing environment and its ability to deal with vacated HBC locations. We anticipate the stock could remain under pressure so long as the macro outlook remains subdued. However, we still forecast average 3-per-cent FFOPU growth through 2026 and believe the 9.2-per-cent implied cap rate is a compelling entry point.”
* CIBC’s Robert Catellier increased his AltaGas Ltd. (ALA-T) target to $42 from $42, keeping a “outperformer” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Robert Hope to $45 from $42 with a “sector outperform” rating, RBC’s Maurice Choy to $43 from $40 with an “outperform” rating and National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $44 from $41 with an “outperform” rating.. The average is $41.33.
“With solid Q1/25 results and the reaffirmation of the 2025 guidance, we believe the market will continue to turn to AltaGas for multiple favourable themes in spite of the stock’s recent outperformance,“ said Mr. Choy. ”These themes include: (1) AltaGas’ ability to capture growth as Canada seeks to diversify its energy export markets (and as countries simultaneously seek to diversify their international suppliers); (2) defensive exposure through its U.S. gas utilities, which continue to deliver low- risk regulated growth, plus upside via incremental data center-related connections; and (3) derisking amid the market uncertainty, particularly if the MVP stake sale proceeds."
* Mr. Catellier raised his TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T) target to $76 from $71 with an “outperformer” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil to $76 from $75 with a “buy” rating, National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $75 from $74 with an “outperform” rating and Scotia’s Robert Hope to $77 from $75 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $73.30.
“We believe TC Energy’s attractive business mix, highly contracted asset base, and visible growth profile warrant a premium valuation to its North American peers,” said Mr. Hope.
* Bernstein’s Bob Brackett cut his Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX-T) target to $43 from $45 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $36.57.
* Stifel’s Daryl Young lowered his Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T) target to $265 from $270 with a “buy” rating. The average is $265.23.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Katie Lachapelle raised her Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) target to $83.50 from $82.50 with a “buy” rating, while Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur cut his target to $83 from $84 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $80.54.
“CCO provides investors with lower-risk exposure to the uranium market given its diversification of sources. These sources are supported by a portfolio of long-term contracts that provide some downside protection in periods of depressed spot uranium prices, while maintaining optionality to higher uranium prices. In addition, CCO has multiple operations curtailed that could be brought back should uranium prices increase. Although the 2021 tax court decision applies only to the 2003, 2005, and 2006 tax years, we view it as a positive for CCO given we believe it could be relevant in determining the outcome for other years and reduces risk related to the CRA dispute,” said Mr. MacArthur.
* TD Cowen’s Michael Van Aelst increased his target for shares of George Weston Ltd. (WN-T) to $308, exceeding the $260.33 average, from $256 with a “buy” rating.
“With the upside we see in both Loblaw and Choice Properties, and WN returning significant capital to shareholders, we continue to view WN shares as attractive. We have a preference to own Weston (approximately 17-per-cent expected total return) over Loblaw (10-per-cent expected total return) as we believe the holdco discount could contract from the current 15 per cent (vs 13-per-cent average) closer to the 10 per cent we use in our NAV calculation,” said Mr. Van Aelst.
* RBC’s Nelson Ng trimmed his Green Impact Partners Inc. (GIP-X) target to $6 from $8 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $7.
“The outlook for GIP is based on the binary outcome of the $2 billion Future Energy Park (FEP) development, which could lead to significant upside,” he said. “The balance sheet is strained, but we believe there is enough liquidity for the company to advance the project to financial close. We are reducing our PT ... to reflect a more cautious view given the delays at FEP, operating issues at the Colorado JV, and going concern disclosure that has resulted in a default under the company’s debt facility.”
* Mr. Ng also cut his Methanex Corp. (MEOH-Q, MX-T) target to US$50 from US$55 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is US$48
“We believe the shares of Methanex are trading at a discount, pricing in a recession, and offer attractive upside potential to investors who are more constructive on the U.S. trade war and global economy. However, due to the ongoing uncertainties (U.S. tariffs, potential recession, and lower near-term methanol prices), we are reducing our price target,” said Mr. Ng.
* RBC’s Paul Treiber increased his target for Lumine Group Inc. (LMN-X) to $53 from $50 with an “outperform” rating, while TD Cowen’s David Kwan raised his target by $1 to $55 with a “buy” rating. The average is $47.
“Lumine reported solid Q1 results, with revenue and adj. EBITDA above RBC estimates,” Mr. Treiber said. “Organic growth improved to down 4 per cent from down 9 per cent Q4, implying the Motive carve-out is stabilizing post-acquisition. Moreover, the Vidispine carve-out was completed for a lower than expected purchase price, implying a higher IRR on the acquisition.”
* CIBC’s Krista Friesen raised her Martinrea International Inc. (MRE-T) target to $8.75 from $8.50 with a “neutral” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $13 from $10 with a “buy” rating and Raymond James’ Michael Glen to $12 from $14 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $11.
“While we continue to believe investors are purchasing MRE’s core auto parts business at a heavily discounted valuation, we would emphasize that we do expect volatility in the near-term as the industry works towards resolution with respect to trade and tariffs. We believe the company is executing very well despite challenging industry trend,” said Mr. Glen.
* Ms. Friesen cut her Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T) target to $120 from $130 with a “neutral” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Devin Dodge to $128 from $130 with an “outperform” rating, Raymond James’ Steve Hansen to $122 from $130 with a “market perform” rating, Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk to $131 from $134 with a “buy” rating and Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman to $128 from $133.50 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $131.89.
“We reduced our 2025 EPS by 13 per cent to $5.60 in consideration of the following dynamics: 1) uncertainty is causing delays in customer buying decisions and lower activity levels; 2) the equipment market is well supplied, which is giving customers more flexibility to prolong purchase decisions and secure more attractive prices; 3) we are still in an equipment replacement cycle and new machines need to build hours before really consuming parts/maintenance (likely two to three years’ lag); and 4) higher steel and aluminum prices should eventually work their way through the supply chain (in the past CAT-US discussed having three to six months of steel supply locked in at prevailing prices),” said Mr. Goldman.
“TIH shares trade at 20 times P/E on our 2025E, in line with historicals. You could make the case for a premium given below mid-cycle earnings this year and balance sheet optionality (net cash exiting 1Q25 and upwards of $2 billion in deployable capital). Given its long track record of solid execution, we believe TIH should be a core long-term holding, especially with shares hovering near 18-month lows. While estimates will get rebased to more realistic levels, industry visibility is not great in the best of times. Lack of clear signs of improving fundamentals and sentiment could keep the shares range-bound in the near term. Of course, where we could be wrong is on capital deployment.”
* Ventum Capital Markets’ Connor Mackay raised his Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-X) target to $5.25 from $4.90 with a “buy” rating after assuming coverage. The average is
“Our new, fully financed NAV estimate benefits from the early exploration success Montage has demonstrated in its aim to quickly define new high-grade satellite deposits,” he said. “We see these additions filling out and extending the elevated production profile over the first several years of Koné’s mine life. The Company is in a unique position to simultaneously deliver a construction-fuelled re-rate as Koné is built while demonstrating continuous improvement in the project through aggressive exploration programs. Ultimately, we see Koné becoming a cash cow for Montage which, as the Company’s recent corporate moves may hint at, could allow it to become a consolidator in one of West Africa’s safest—yet relatively untapped—mining jurisdictions."
* Citi’s Steven Enders reduced his Open Text Corp. (OTEX-Q, OTEX-T) target to US$29 from US$32 with a “neutral” recommendation. Other changes include: BMO’s Thanos Moschopoulos to US$28 from US$30 with a “market perform” rating and CIBC’s Stephanie Price to US$31 from US$33 with a “neutral” rating. The average is US$32.82.
“OTEX reported mixed F3Q results with weaker top-line metrics including a $28-million/$85-million revenue miss/guide down (below low end of guide) and cloud bookings down 8 per cent year-over-year & guided down 10pts, as tariffs/DOGE impacted verticals including autos, fed, energy, materials, and retail,” said Mr. Enders. “Still, profitability was strong with healthy EBITDA and FCF beats, along with an expanded restructuring program looking to drive an incremental $340-$400-million annual cost out by FY27. OTEX is one of the few software companies so far to explicitly call out tariff/macro impacts and cut guidance. We maintain Neutral until we have increased confidence in a return to growth/FCF upside.”
* Scotia’s Phil Hardie bumped his Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T) target to $50 from $49 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $51.75.
“Trisura stock has rallied strongly in recent weeks,” he said. “We are encouraged by the rebound and believe the key to sustaining the momentum and ultimately re-rate the stock is for the company to deliver a string of four or five consecutive quarters of clean earnings that meet or beat expectations with no further developments related to its run-off program or other negative surprises. In that context, we think the Q1/25 results were just what the doctor ordered to sustain recent gains and a step forward toward shaking off the current discount and re-gaining the valuation premium we think the stock deserves.
“We think the risk-reward continues to look favourable, albeit more balanced than before the rebound. We see upper teen upside potential even in the absence of further multiple expansion and driven simply by growth in book value if the company delivers on our earnings expectations, which are likely conservative and remain below consensus estimates.”