A survey of North American equities heading in both directions
On the rise
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T) rose 0.5 per cent after it reined in its financial forecast for the year due to the lingering fog around U.S. tariffs and trade policy, as the railway hunts for workarounds to an array of trade barriers.
“It’s an all-out blitz, literally, to do everything we can to make our own luck as all this uncertainty unfolds on the tariff front,” said chief marketing officer John Brooks, highlighting a 60-day sales push to meet with more than 500 customers.
Full reaction to CPKC's results: Thursday's analyst upgrades and downgrades
On the heels of a 17-per-cent year-over-year surge in profits last quarter, chief executive Keith Creel said new shipping flows between Canada and Mexico have already started to emerge from “this trade storm.”
Canadian producers are sending more refined fuels, liquefied petroleum gas, plastics and grains to Mexico, he told analysts on a conference call Wednesday.
“There’s over $100 million of new revenue that this crisis has created that originates in Alberta that goes to Mexico.”
Meanwhile, CPKC can haul more appliances, furniture, food and vehicles directly to Canada from south of the Rio Grande. Mr. Creel stressed the chance to ship more consumer products between the two countries when “the middleman is redundant.”
“A lot of these products in this case are produced in Mexico. Then they’re trucked to the United States to be packaged and labelled and warehoused, and then trucked out of the United States to go across the border onto the Canadian shelves,” he said, noting that such supply chains can inflate prices.
“That creates opportunities.”
Nonetheless, the country’s second-biggest railway faces the threat of potential economywide contraction — U.S. economic output shrank last quarter — and unpredictability around shifting tariffs.
On Thursday, CPKC lowered its financial outlook for 2025, saying it now expects adjusted diluted earnings per share to increase between 10 and 14 per cent this year, rather than 12 to 18 per cent as previously predicted.
Mr. Creel cited “increasing uncertainty created by evolving trade policies and the heightened risk of economic recession.”
On Thursday, CPKC reported first-quarter net income increased to $909-million versus $774-million the year before.
Revenues grew eight per cent to $3.80-billion in the three months ended March 31 from $3.52-billion in the same period a year earlier, the Calgary-based company said.
On an adjusted basis, core diluted earnings rose 14 per cent to $1.06 per share from 93 cents per share, slightly beating analysts’ expectations of $1.04 per share, according to financial markets firm LSEG Data & Analytics.
Thomson Reuters (TRI-T) was higher by 0.2 per cent after it reaffirmed 2025 financial guidance amid tariff-induced global economic turmoil that has led some companies to revise or scrap forecasts altogether.
The Toronto-based content and technology company reported quarterly revenue rising 1 per cent to US$1.9-billion, slightly below analyst expectations of US$1.93-billion, according to LSEG data.
Organic revenue, which strips out the impact of currency moves, acquisitions and asset sales, rose 6 per cent.
Chief Executive Officer Steve Hasker said businesses and government agencies were broadly more cautious about investment decisions amid the turmoil, but most of Thomson Reuters revenue was recurring in nature, often locked into multi-year contracts.
“Everyone is bracing themselves,” Mr. Hasker said in a post-results interview of the unstable economic backdrop caused in part by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
“But as we’ve seen with Microsoft, we haven’t seen any impact yet ... We’ve made a good start to the year, meeting or exceeding our expectations,” he added, referring to Wednesday’s results from the U.S. tech giant.
Thomson Reuters is also expected to reaffirm its 2026 organic revenue growth target of 7.5 per cent to 8 per cent, Chief Financial Officer Mike Eastwood said. “Steve and I remain confident in delivering all aspects of our 2026 framework.”
The company, which owns the Westlaw legal database, Reuters news agency and the Checkpoint tax and accounting service, reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of US$1.12. Wall Street expected a profit of US$1.05 per share.
Shares of Thomson Reuters, which have risen 15 per cent since the beginning of the year, have outpaced the S&P 500 index, which has fallen 5 per cent over the same period.
Saskatoon-based Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) rose 1.2 per cent after it reported a first-quarter profit as its revenue rose compared with a year ago, citing strong production of uranium and fuel services.
The company says it earned a profit attributable to equity holders of $70-million or 16 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended March 31, compared with a loss of $7-million or two cents per diluted share a year earlier.
On an adjusted basis, Cameco says it earned 16 cents per diluted share in its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of 11 cents per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue for the quarter totalled $789-million, up from $634-million a year earlier.
Uranium production totalled 6.0 million pounds for the quarter, up from 5.8 million a year earlier, while sales volumes amounted to 6.9 million pounds, down from 7.3 million pounds. Cameco’s average realized price for uranium was $89.12 per pound, up from $77.33 a year earlier.
Cameco’s fuel services business saw production of 3.9 million kilograms, up from 3.7 million a year earlier, while fuel services sales volumes totalled 2.4 million kilograms, up from 1.5 million kilograms. Fuel services reported an average realized price of $56.64 per kilogram, up from $48.36 in the first quarter of 2024.
In a research report, RBC analyst Andrew Wong said: " We expect a positive reaction in Cameco shares given better than expected EBITDA (up 14 per cent vs. consensus) driven by strong performance in the uranium segment while the 2025 outlook was reiterated along with slightly higher forward price realizations. We also flag forward contracted sales volumes and price sensitivity as mostly unchanged, which was not a big surprise given the lack of contracting activity across the uranium market in Q1 due to tariff and macro uncertainty.
“We believe uranium prices have stabilized at current levels and expect pent-up contracting activity to re-emerge in H2/25, while the industry moves toward replacement level contracting in 2026. Overall, we remain positive on uranium due to tight market conditions and see a continued nuclear revival, and Cameco is well-positioned to benefit with tier 1 assets across the uranium and nuclear sector.”
Microsoft (MSFT-Q) forecast on Wednesday stronger-than-expected quarterly growth for its cloud-computing business Azure after blowout results in the latest quarter, assuaging investor worries in an uncertain economy and lifting its shares higher by 7.6 per cent.
Microsoft’s results, which follow similarly above-expectations outcomes from Google last week, could ease concerns about a potential slowdown in AI demand, after some analysts pointed to canceled data-centre leases at Microsoft as a sign of excess capacity.
Investors had also been worried about the fallout from sweeping U.S. tariffs that are prompting businesses to rein in spending.
Microsoft said revenue at its Azure cloud division rose 33 per cent in the third quarter ended March 31, exceeding estimates of 29.7 per cent, according to Visible Alpha. AI contributed 16 percentage points to the growth, up from 13 points in the previous quarter.
The company also forecast cloud-computing revenue growth of 34 per cent to 35 per cent on a constant currency basis for the fiscal fourth quarter, well above analyst estimates of 31.8 per cent, according to data from Visible Alpha.
“In a quarter clouded by tariff fears and AI spending scrutiny, this quarter is a clear win - even if it wasn’t fireworks,” said Jeremy Goldman, senior director of briefings at E-marketer.
“Azure and other cloud services beat Street expectations - and Microsoft Cloud’s growth shows it continues to turn AI infrastructure into margin-friendly growth. Still, investors will be watching closely as the company continues to pull back on data center expansion.”
Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft reported a profit of US$3.46 per share in the quarter, beating expectations of US$3.22 per share.
The company also benefited from a 6% increase in revenue at its more personal computing unit, which includes Xbox and its line of laptops.
Microsoft, which has also repeatedly said it is capacity constrained on AI, has been pouring billions into building its AI infrastructure and expanding its data-center footprint.
Meta Platforms (META-Q) rode strong advertising performance to beat analysts’ revenue estimates for the first quarter and match expectations for the next quarter on Wednesday, assuaging investor concerns over tariff-related economic growth fears.
The Facebook and Instagram parent also increased planned capital expenditures this year as it speeds up construction of data centers that can support artificial intelligence, which it sees bolstering and transforming its business.
Shares of the company were up 4.2 per cent in Thursday trading. Meta boosted its 2025 capital expenditure plans to between US$64-billion and US$72-billion. CEO Mark Zuckerberg previously said the company could spend as much as US$65-billion this year.
“The pace of progress across the industry and the opportunities ahead for us are staggering. I want to make sure that we’re working aggressively and efficiently, and I also want to make sure that we are building out the leading infrastructure and teams,” Mr. Zuckerberg told investors on a call after publishing results.
Meta executives said most of the total capex is going towards supporting the core business, such as supplying the computing power for ads, rather than generative AI development.
But CFO Susan Li said on the call that the increase to the forecast reflected a decision to more rapidly ready data center capacity in support of AI efforts, as well as the potential for tariffs to increase hardware export costs.
The increased outlays could help soothe concerns that AI interest might be waning, especially after analysts in March flagged early signs of tech majors pulling back on new data center commitments.
Meta reported revenue of US$42.31-billion for the first quarter, compared with analysts’ average estimate of US$41.40-billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. It reported profit of US$6.43 per share, beating estimates of US$5.28 per share.
Meta expects second-quarter revenue to be between US$42.5-billion and US$45.5-billion, compared with an average estimate of US$44.01-billion.
Ford Motor (F-N) gained 1.7 per cent in the wake of reporting a 16-per-cent rise in U.S. auto sales for April, aided by strong truck demand and its employee pricing program.
Demand for vehicles has remained strong, with consumers trying to quickly snap up vehicles before prices potentially surge after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
Ford announced discounts across multiple models in April, leaning on its healthy inventory to offer customers thousands of dollars off as competitors hiked prices to absorb tariff costs.
Sales of Ford’s pickup trucks, which includes its F series and compact Maverick models, rose 23 per cemt at 99,954 units.
On the decline
Pipeline operator TC Energy (TRP-T) on Thursday missed analysts’ estimates for first-quarter profit on weakness in its power and energy solutions business, while higher interest expenses offset gains in its natural gas operations.
The company’s shares closed down 0.5 per cent
With energy demand growing across North America, demand for renewable and lower-emission electricity is also set to rise. TC Energy has invested in 10 power-generation facilities with a combined generating capacity of about 4,600 megawatts.
However, adjusted core profit for the company’s power and energy solutions business fell 30 per cent to $224-million in the first quarter, hurt by a unit of the Bruce Power nuclear reactor going offline for repairs.
Bruce Power, partly owned by TC Energy, supplies 30 per cent of Ontario’s electricity.
Despite the results, TC Energy remains bullish on power demand growth and announced new natural gas and nuclear electricity generation projects worth $2.4-billion.
The company, which last year spun off its oil pipeline business to pursue a natural gas-focused strategy, has forecast natural gas demand in North America to grow by 40 billion cubic feet per day over the next decade.
On an adjusted basis, Calgary-based TC Energy earned 95 cents per share for the three months ended March 31, compared with analysts’ average expectation of 97 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG.
“We expect the news to have a largely neutral impact on the company’s share price, reflecting: (1) the in-line Q1/25 EBITDA and EPS results; (2) the reaffirmation of the company’s near-term guidance ranges; (3) the sanctioning of over $2 billion of new projects into TC Energy’s secured growth program; and (4) the company’s expectation for the Southeast Gateway pipeline to be in-service near the end of May upon the regulator’s approval of the pipeline’s regulated rates,” said RBC analyst Maurice Choy in a note.
Shares of Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) dropped 9.4 per cent even after it provided an upbeat financial forecast for the current year, saying it expects to sell more private jets and boost both profit and revenue. The outlook runs against more distressed projections put forth by much of corporate Canada.
As U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies rattle markets and set the foundations for what could be a global economic shock, the Canadian business aircraft maker says it has prepared for various outcomes and run the numbers. The conclusion: Its business will grow, even amid the turmoil.
“As the world navigates through economic uncertainty, Bombardier has been diligent in its planning, developing multiple scenarios over the past few months,” Bombardier chief executive Eric Martel said in a news release Thursday outlining first quarter earnings. “We have come a long way by focusing on what we control, and have everything in place to guide for a strong year in 2025.”
Aircraft deliveries should top 150 for 2025, up from 146 last year, Bombardier said in the release. That cadence of shipments, combined with sales from its defense and services units as well as higher pricing, will help push up revenue 7 per cent to more than US$9.25-billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization 14 per cent to more than US$1.55-billion, the company said. Free cash flow should be at least US$500-million, more than twice last year’s level, it said.
The buoyant forecast contrasts with the more negative tone being communicated by leaders from other Canadian companies, some of whom are having trouble seeing far ahead and are pulling or slashing financial guidance as a result.
On Wednesday, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T), the country’s second-biggest railway, became the latest to cut its profit forecast for the year, citing “the increasing uncertainty created by evolving trade policies and the heightened risk of economic recession.”
Bombardier on Thursday reported net income of US$44-million or $0.37 per diluted share for its latest quarter and US$248-million on an adjusted EBITDA basis. Revenue climbed 19 per cent versus the same period last year, to US$1.5-billion. The company had US$1.4-billion in available liquidity at the end of the March.
- Nicolas Van Praet
Canadian toy manufacturer Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T) fell 8.2 per cent after announcing Wednesday it was withdrawing its guidance for the remainder of the year due to “meaningful uncertainty” caused by Trump’s global trade war. It said that tariffs on countries where it produces toys, especially China, have made forward-looking projections “very challenging.”
“The timing, extent, and enforcement of the potential tariffs on goods entering the U.S. remains very fluid, and we continue to monitor trade policy developments closely,” Spin Master president and CEO Max Rangel told analysts on a conference call Thursday, as the company reported it incurred a loss of US$24.5-million in its first quarter.
Earlier this year, Spin Master had said it expects revenue to increase four to six per cent in 2025.
But Trump’s 145 per cent levy on imports from China have thrown those projections for a loop.
Chief financial officer Mark Segal noted that when Spin Master held its most recent earnings call in February, the company was preparing to be impacted by just a 10 per cent tariff that Trump had levied on goods entering his country from China.
That figure has steadily risen since then, and Segal said Spin Master is “not comfortable” making forecasts at this point.
“In the 10 to 20 per cent range of tariffs, I would say to you it would be relatively comfortable for Max and I to give you forward-looking guidance and to be relatively specific about how we would handle that,” Mr. Segal said.
“We’re comfortable in that range. In the 54 per cent range, it starts getting a little trickier to do that because there are more unknowns. In the 125 to 145 (per cent) range ... it becomes very difficult.”
McDonald’s (MCD-N) posted a surprise decline in first-quarter global comparable sales on Thursday, as demand from cash-strapped diners in its key markets faltered on uncertainty sparked by chaotic tariffs.
The company is navigating the “toughest of market conditions,” CEO Chris Kempczinski said, as global comparable sales fell 1 per cent, while analysts on average had estimated a 0.95-per-cent rise.
The burger giant’s results echoed recent warnings from restaurant operators Domino’s Pizza (DPZ-N), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG-N) and Starbucks (SBUX-Q) that Americans were spending less on dining out.
“Less affluent consumers are most vulnerable to the impact of inflation and rising prices, and one of the first areas where they’ll cut back is dining out,” EMarketer analyst Sky Canaves said.
McDonald’s shares were down 1.9 per cent on Thursday. They have gained about 10 per cent this year.
McDonald’s has attempted to spur demand by ramping up its value menu offers such as the $5 meal deal and other limited time offerings on its burgers and fries, similar to its rivals.
Still, comparable sales in the U.S., McDonald’s biggest market, slumped 3.6 per cent in the first quarter, steeper than a 0.5-per-cent drop estimated by analysts, according to the data compiled by LSEG. It was the biggest drop since the pandemic in 2020.
However, its business segment where restaurants are operated by local partners, stood out with a 3.5-per-cent growth compared to last year, led by a sales recovery in the Middle East and Japan.
Excluding items, McDonald’s earned US$2.67 per share, a cent above estimates of US$2.66.
Tesla (TSLA-Q) slid 0.6 per cent after chair Robyn Denholm on Thursday denied a Wall Street Journal report that said board members had reached out to executive search firms to find a new replacement for CEO Elon Musk.
The Journal had reported on Wednesday Tesla’s board members had reached out about a month ago to several executive search firms to find a new CEO, citing people familiar with the discussions.
Ms. Denholm called the report “absolutely false” and said on X the EV maker’s board is “highly confident” in Mr. Musk’s ability to “continue executing on the exciting growth plan ahead”.
Mr. Musk said on X the report was a “deliberately false article”. Activist investors have long accused Tesla’s board of lacking independence and failing to rein in Musk.
Tesla is at a crucial juncture. Mr. Musk has pivoted from his promise of making a new affordable EV platform to rolling out driverless taxis and humanoid robots, highlighting Tesla’s future as an AI and robotics company instead of an automaker.
However, shares have been sliding for months, as its EV sales have slumped in the U.S. and Europe in a backlash to his embrace of far-right politics and as competitors have started to take up market share with newer models.
Mr. Musk’s role in the Trump administration overseeing efforts to cut federal jobs has resulted in a considerable resentment in the U.S.
His work at the Department of Government Efficiency has been one of the most controversial aspects of the Trump presidency, and his time away from Tesla has been an added concern for investors as sales of its aging EV lineup have been declining.
General Motors (GM-N) dipped 0.4 per cent despite cutting its 2025 profit forecast on Thursday after receiving some clarity and a reprieve from the White House this week on automotive tariffs.
CEO Mary Barra told shareholders in a letter that the company would maintain dialog with the Trump administration on trade and other policies as they evolve.
“There are ongoing discussions with key trade partners that may also have an impact,” Ms. Barra said.
The Detroit automaker released the forecast two days after pulling a previous one issued in January that did not take into account the automotive tariffs, and after the Trump administration made changes to them.
The automaker expects an annual adjusted core profit of between US$10-billion and US$12.5-billion, including a current tariff exposure of between US$4-billion and US$5-billion.
GM’s previous guidance for earnings before interest and taxes was between US$13.7-billion and US$15.7-billion.
It expects to earn an annual net income of between US$8.2-billion and US$10.1-billion, down its from prior range of US$11.2-billion and US$12.5-billion.
GM anticipates 2025 full-year capital spending will be between US$10-billion and US$11-billion.
In an interview with CNBC Thursday morning, Ms. Barra said the automaker expected to make further announcements on plans to increase U.S. production.
“We are making a commitment that we are going to bring more production back to this country to build on what we already have,” Ms. Barra said.
Mastercard (MA-N) beat Wall Street estimates for first-quarter profit on Thursday as customers kept up spending on its card network despite the economic uncertainty sparked by a global trade war, however its shares closed lower.
U.S. consumer spending held up in the reported quarter thanks to wage growth and a resilient labor market, even as tariff-driven turmoil casts a shadow on the economy.
“While there is uncertainty in the world, we’ve built a diversified, resilient business model and proven strategy that enables us to effectively navigate various economic environments,” CEO Michael Miebach said.
The strong start was aided in part by cross-border volume growth of 15 per cent, he said, which tracks spending on cards outside the country of their issue.
The results underscore the resilience of card networks, which are viewed as more defensive in a downturn relative to the broader payments space, given their high share of everyday spend and expense flexibility to support profit growth.
Mastercard’s results cap off the earnings season for card companies and are closely watched by Wall Street to assess the health of U.S. consumers.
Excluding one-time costs, Mastercard earned US$3.73 per share in the first quarter, beating analysts’ expectation of US$3.57 per share, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Revenue jumped 17 per cent to US$7.25-billion, topping an estimate of US$7.12-billion.
The company now expects revenue to grow in the “low-teens” percentage range this year. It had earlier forecast growth to be in the “low double-digits” range.
Eli Lilly (LLY-N) on Thursday posted better-than-expected quarterly results, but CVS Health’s (CVS-N) decision to drop the company’s obesity drug Zepbound from the list of medicines it covers for reimbursement dragged shares down.
CVS said its pharmacy benefit management unit, which is the largest in the U.S., would drop Zepbound coverage from July 1, but keep reimbursing for rival GLP-1 weight-loss drug Wegovy after negotiating a more favorable price from Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk.
The success of Lilly’s diabetes and weight-loss treatments has led the Indianapolis-based drugmaker to become the world’s most valuable healthcare company, with a market value of more than US$800-billion.
“The battle between Novo and Lilly is clearly adding meaningful price pressure” to the GLP-1 medicines, said Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen, adding that patients and doctors have shown preference toward Zepbound.
Lilly said lower prices for Zepbound trimmed revenue in the quarter, but that demand remained strong. Sales of the drug came in at US$2.31-billion for the first quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of US$2.33-billion, according to LSEG data.
In February, Lilly cut the price for vials of Zepbound by US$50 or more and expanded the range of doses it sold online to address competition from compounding pharmacies and Novo. It now offers the two lowest doses of Zepbound for US$349 and US$499 for a month’s supply.
Weekly U.S. prescriptions of Wegovy have plateaued since mid-February, according to IQVIA data provided by analysts, with Zepbound prescriptions overtaking Novo’s obesity drug by more than 127,000 for the week ending April 18.
Lilly said it had captured about 53.3 per cent of the U.S. market share.
Lilly cut its full-year adjusted profit forecast to between US$20.78 and US$22.28 per share, from its previous view of US$22.50 to US$24.00 per share, citing deal charges.
The drugmaker said its forecast is based on “the existing tariff and trade environment,” and did not quantify any impact from potential tariffs.
On an adjusted basis, Lilly earned US$3.34 per share for the quarter, topping analysts’ estimates by 32 US cents.
Total revenue for the period was US$12.73-billion, above Wall Street expectations of US$12.67-billion.
With files from staff and wires