Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman sees significant potential upside to the Street’s expectations for 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T) in both 2026 and 2027 on “underappreciated operating leverage,” leading him to declare “remaining on the sidelines would fall under ‘sins of omission.’”
“5N is a global producer of ultra-pure specialty materials used in mission-critical applications across solar, space, defence, medical imaging, and pharma,” he said. “With shares up almost 4 times in the LTM [last 12 months], investors may wonder whether they’ve missed the run.
“While the market has come to recognize the business transformation to higher-margin, downstream operation and the extensive growth runway underpinned by durable secular trends, we believe there is still money left on the table. At the current valuation, the market is giving the company zero credit for potential M&A and a growing defence opportunity underscored by the recent U.S. Department of War (DoW) grant.”
In a client report released Monday before the bell, Mr. Goldman initiated coverage of the Montreal-based company with a “sector outperform” rating, touting “multi-year visibility” on its growth and seeing a strong change for a raise to its financial guidance this year.
“Renewable Energy (First Solar) volumes are contracted to 2028 and Space Solar Cells (AZUR) bookings extend beyond 2028, meaning approximately two-thirds of revenue has at least two years of visibility,” he explained. “The International Energy Agency expects solar photovoltaic capacity to increase at a 15-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] through 2035, driven by increasing power demand, including AI and data centres. The global space economy is expected to grow at an 11-per-cent CAGR through 2035, driven by lower launch costs, broader range of applications, and regionalization of satellite networks. 5N is much less exposed to metal price volatility than in the past given its pivot to higher-margin, downstream operations.
“The company has a history of beat-and-raise, exceeding Street expectations by an average of 22 per cent over the last 13 quarters. The company reported 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $29-million, but left full-year guidance unchanged at $100-million to $105-million, which embeds conservatism and margin normalization in Performance Materials. But we see good reason for Performance Materials margins to remain elevated as customers are willing to pay a premium for security of supply amid geopolitical uncertainty. Moreover, we believe the Street is underestimating operating leverage: assuming decrementals of 40 per cent (same as 2025), we estimate earnings this year could surprise by more than 15 per cent.”
Projecting a “free option on M&A + defence,” Mr.Goldman set a Street-high target of $48 for 5N Plus shares. The average target is $38, according to LSEG data.
“Both our multiples approach and DCF support a target price of $40 to $41 per share, roughly where shares are trading today,” he said. “But that implies no upside from potential M&A, which we do not include in our estimates. Management is ‘very motivated’ to make an acquisition, potentially as soon as this year. Net debt to EBITDA including leases was 1x as at 1Q26, which we forecast declining to 0.4 times by year-end. If 5N levered up to 2.5 times, we estimate it could debt-finance nearly $350 million of acquisitions, which would be more than 20-per-cent accretive to our 2027E. In January 2026, the company received an $18.1-million grant from the U.S. DoW to increase U.S. refining capacity of germanium by 7 times at its Utah facility, representing a new downstream opportunity. Revenue impact isn’t expected until 2028, but could be material.”
Following the late Thursday release of an operational update, which included the announcement of two seismic events at its Young-Davidson mine in Northern Ontario and resulted in a 12-per-cent reduction in overall guidance for the second quarter, National Bank Financial analyst Don DeMarco joined several of his peers in cutting his forecast for Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-T )
“AGI provided an update across its Canadian operations: Island Gold District (IGD) remains on track while at Young-Davidson (YD) two seismic events last week impacted access to higher-grade stopes, and separately, storm-related power outages in May resulted in unplanned downtime,” he explained. “From this, consolidated Q2/26 production guidance was revised lower, with an update to FY26 consolidated production and cost guidance pending with release of Q2/26 financials. The company also messaged that the remaining 2026 legacy Argonaut gold hedges were eliminated with a modest balance remaining in 2027, and the company was active on its NCIB in May and expects to continue to be over the coming months.”
With the Toronto-based miner’s shares plummeting 18.4 per cent on Friday in response to the release, Mr. DeMarco emphasized events outside Alamos’ control “continue to weigh on operational performance,” however he’s “encouraged the flagship IGD [Island Gold District] mine and primary driver of production growth in 2026 remains on track.
“After model updates, our NAVPS [net asset value per share] eased 1.4 per cent to $61.75 (was $62.62), on decreased production and increased costs from lower mining rates and grades at YD,” he added.
Keeping his “outperform” rating, he lowered his target to $80 from $87. The average is $78.95.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Canaccord Genuity’s Carey MacRury to $77 from $85 with a “buy” rating.
“On a more positive note, Alamos expects to achieve its guidance for the Island Gold Complex with the Magino mill nearing 10ktpd. For the full-year, the company now expects production to land below the low end of guidance and costs above the high end, and plans to provide revised production and cost guidance with the release of its Q2 results in July. We estimate the impact of the lower Q2/26 guidance as well as the lower mining rates at YD for the balance of the year in Figure 1, implying FY production of 551koz on our numbers, 10 per cent below the previous guidance midpoint and 7 per cent below our forecast of 595koz,” said Mr. MacRury.
* TD Cowen’s Steven Green to $61 from $78 with a “buy” rating.
“The 19-per-cent decline in share price has reduced market cap by over $2.3-billion, which is 75 per cent of our YD NAV, so we believe this is more than baked in now,” said Mr. Green.
* Stifel’s Ralph Profiti to $75 from $80 with a “buy” rating.
Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier said he likes MDA Space Ltd.’s (MDA-T) $874-million acquisition of Blue Canyon Technologies for two reasons: “(1) the acquisition provides a pathway for MDA to obtain security clearances for the U.S. market; and (2) we see strong complements between the two businesses.”
Shares of the Brampton, Ont.-based company rose 6.3 per cent on Friday in response to the announcement of the deal, which Mr. Poirier called “highly strategic and accretive.”
“BCT brings two Colorado facilities totalling 140,000 sq ft and holds a facility security clearance from the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency,” he said. “In other words, MDA ends up with an established operating and manufacturing presence and a pathway to compete for prime contracts and pursue classified defence programs in the U.S., which is work that MDA could not access without the clearance. We see the entrance into the U.S. market as positive, especially with all the tailwinds supporting it. Funding for the U.S. Space Force budget for FY27 alone is proposed to increase to US$55-billion, up nearly 80 per cent compared with FY26, and 75 per cent of BCT’s own revenue comes from defence-related work.
“Second, we see strong complementarity between the two businesses, with multiple potential synergies from both cross-selling and the supply chain. Primarily, the acquisition provides MDA with a clear opportunity to expand sales of its large satellite platforms to a broader U.S. customer base, including access to classified U.S. programs that were previously out of reach. Conversely, management also sees opportunities to distribute BCT’s small satellite offerings through MDA’s established international channels. Additionally, BCT has historically been considered within MDA’s supply chain (and vice versa), suggesting meaningful potential for procurement efficiencies and supply chain optimization. Importantly, no synergies have been quantified at this stage (and are not included in the numbers), with additional disclosure expected from management following the close of the transaction.”
After adding Blue Canyon Technologies to his financial model, Mr. Poirier moved his target for MDA shares to $70 from $66, keeping a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $67.04.
“We calculate approximately 4-per-cent EPS accretion in 2027 and 6 per cent in 2028,” he added. “Based on a purchase price of US$620-million (or $874-million) and assuming a similar EBITDA margin of 18–20 per cent for BCT, the implied EV/2026E multiple is 20.5 times. We model 2027 as the first full year of contribution from BCT and forecast revenue growth of 10 per cent for 2027 and 15 per cent for 2028, with margins similar to MDA. We see modest incremental capex from the transaction. We now forecast 2027 fully diluted adjusted EPS of $1.73 and $1.88 for FY28, implying 4-per-cent and 6-per-cent accretion from our prior numbers ($1.66 and $1.77).
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige to $65 from $56 with a “buy” rating.
“We believe the acquisition strengthens MDA’s position in the US defence and space market by adding complementary spacecraft capabilities, a local manufacturing footprint, and an established customer base. Establishing a US footprint had been MDA’s stated goal for a while now, and this clearly achieves it. Importantly, BCT has security clearances required by the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency (DCSA), enabling the company to pursue classified programs and compete for prime contracts more directly. As a result, we believe MDA Space will be better positioned to capture a larger share of the growing U.S. defence and space budget, including opportunities related to major programs such as the Golden Dome. Recall, MDA’s own pipeline (of $40-billion) is more weighted towards Canadian and European (NATO) projects, with a relatively smaller inclusion from US defence projects. Hence, this is key to the company’s outlook.,” said Mr. Galappatthige.
* Stifel’s Greg MacDonald to $75 from $70 with a “buy” rating.
“In our view, MDA’s acquisition of Blue Canyon Technologies delivers exactly what the company has promised from its M&A strategy. While the target valuation is fulsome, the deal is immediately EPS and FCFPS positive, it is complimentary to MDA’s product suite offering revenue synergies, and most important, it adds U.S. manufacturing and DOW/DOS relationships that we think significantly increase prime contract opportunities in U.S. Defense. Following the acquisition, we are bumping our target to $75 from $70 to reflect higher confidence in landing U.S. defence contracts. Our target multiples go from 4.1 times to 4.5 times on sales and 21 times to 23 times on EBITDA based on 2027E. We maintain our BUY rating and view this stock as a core holding on the defence spending theme,” said Mr. MacDonald.
* ATB Cormark’s David McFadgen to $62 from $67 with a “sector perform” rating.
“BCT brings access to the US government market that MDA didn’t have before along with it, and we expect its growth profile to be around low double digits, and MDA is hoping to accelerate that growth with its own tech. We maintain our rating for MDA at Sector Perform but are lowering our target from $67.00 to $62.00. We lower our target EV/EBITDA multiple from 22.0 times to 20.0 times to reflect an increased risk profile due to lack of new large satellite contracts. MDA’s current major contracts are set to be completed around the end of 2027, as a result, we need to see some new major contract announcements or follow-on orders,” said Mr. McFadgen.
* Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $71 from $70 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We like the acquisition because it: (1) is accretive to valuation metrics and fundamentals, (2) expands the addressable space market and opportunity pipeline, (3) unlocks the U.S. defence market, including classified programs and prime contracts, (4) brings complementary technology and customer base, and (5) offers potential synergies through vertical integration, cross-selling, and supply chain. We don’t expect any regulatory hurdles nor any material integration risks, although the deal is likely to take several months to close. MDA was already an attractive long-term growth story, which should get even better with BCT — a fast-growing, profitable business that increases MDA’s access to the U.S. market. We expect more M&A to ensue over time, in the U.S. or Europe, as well as conversion of the enhanced opportunity pipeline into backlog. Valuation remains undemanding at 20 times EV/EBITDA and 3.8 times EV/Sales on our 2027E, supporting our positive thesis," said Mr. Gupta.
* BMO’s Thanos Moschopoulos to $68 from $53 with an “outperform” rating.
“We believe the stock’s valuation remains attractive relative to peers given the breadth of MDA’s opportunity set and its competitive position in key market segments,” he said.
National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar is expecting "macro uncertainty and unfavourable weather" to weigh on same-store sales growth for MTY Food Group Inc. (MTY-T) when it reports second-quarter results next month.
“Our expectation for ongoing pressure in the U.S. (albeit sequentially improving) reflects management’s cautious optimism from improvement partway into Q2 (although impacted by weather-related events in March), the suspension of gift cards program at Costco in certain brands, continued challenges at Papa Murphy’s (17 per cent of F2025 sales; pizza remains highly competitive), as well as tepid trends in third-party data,” he said. “Our review of Bloomberg Second Measure data (ALTD) suggests U.S. sales growth at MTY remained pressured and were sequentially similar. Specifically, in Q2/F26E MTY sales in the U.S. were down 5.3 per cent year-over-year vs. down 5.0 per cent in Q1/F26.
“Our review of peer commentary suggests: (i) subdued consumer sentiment (growing uncertainty and higher gas prices); the pizza category saw heightened competition, (ii) a decline in traffic while weather was unfavourable in March, and (iii) higher commodity costs (especially beef and labour).”
Predicting “tepid sssg in the U.S., and more resilient in Canada,” Mr. Shreedhar is currently projecting system sales of $1.441-billion, down from $1.464-billion a year ago, with revenue falling by $4-million revenue to $301-million.
“We model tepid overall trends year-over-year, reflecting ongoing soft industry demand in the U.S., partly offset by relatively more resilience in Canada, organic growth initiatives across the business (broad-based digital/technology enhancements, new marketing approaches, etc.), and operating efficiency initiatives,” he said.
“Notwithstanding, we expect MTY’s share price to be largely governed by investor perception regarding the ongoing strategic review. Outside the strategic review, investors will focus on: (i) traction with sssg (and indications on when sssg will turn consistently positive, particularly in the U.S.), (ii) organic store network stability, and (iii) outlook commentary and the consumer backdrop given ongoing macroeconomic concerns.”
Mr. Shreedhar reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and $49 target for MTY shares. The average target is currently $45.40.
RBC’s Head of Global Energy Research Greg Pardy thinks the depth of Ovintiv Inc.’s (OVV-N, OVV-T) position in the Montney Formation in Western Canada along with its “streamlined portfolio, strong balance sheet and enhanced shareholder returns afford investors with an attractive valuation re-rating opportunity over time.”
He said recent institutional meetings in Vancouver with Ovintiv’s President & CEO Brendan McCracken reinforced his “confidence in the company’s outlook and potential to capture a higher relative valuation over time.”
“The upbeat discussions delved into the company’s portfolio transformation, importance of stacked innovation, appetite for growth, shareholder returns and potential inclusion in the S&P/TSX index amongst other topics,” he added.
“What seemed clear to us from the discussions is that Ovintiv has no appetite to add a lot of debt to its balance sheet or pursue large-scale acquisitions/mergers given completion of its portfolio transformation. The company is content with its acreage positions in both the Montney and Permian and will continue to execute its ground game via smaller bite-sized asset acquisitions in both basins. Ovintiv has also taken steps of late to optimize its overhead cost structure and will continue to chip away at its transportation, processing and operating costs over time.”
Also believing Ovintiv’s potential inclusion in the S&P/TSX index under a proposed methodology would “open the stock up to a broader bid in Canada,” Mr. Pardy reaffirmed Ovintiv’s place on RBC’s “Global Energy Best Ideas List” and kept an “outperform” rating with a US$70 target. The average on the Street is US$70.11.
“Under futures prices, Ovintiv is trading at debt-adjusted cash flow multiples of 3.8 times (vs. our North American senior E&P peer group avg. of 6.0 times) in 2026 and 3.7 times in 2027 (vs. peers at 5.2 times) and free cash flow yields (enterprise value) of 12 per cent (vs. peers at 10 per cent) in 2026E and 12 per cent in 2027E (vs. peers at 8 per cent),” he said. “We believe that Ovintiv should trade in-line with our North American peer group given its solid leadership team, impressive execution capability, streamlined portfolio, Montney inventory depth, enhanced shareholder returns and strong balance sheet.”
Elsewhere, Wells Fargo’s Hanwen Chang upgraded Ovintiv to “overweight” from “equal-weight” with a US$80 target, up from US$57.
“With portfolio transformation now complete, OVV is shifting to delivery, supported by deep inventory & strong execution. We see a more durable FCF profile not fully reflected in valuation, w/ shares trading at a discount to peers,” he said.
In other analyst actions:
* Canaccord Genuity’s Kenric Tyghe upgraded California-based cannabis company Glass House Brands Inc. (GLASF-OTC, GLAS.A-NEO) to “buy” from “hold” with a US$16 target, rising from US$8.50 and above the US$8 average.
“Glass House is raised to a BUY on a new 12-month price target of $16.00 following (1) insights gleaned at the company’s recent investor day in Camarillo, California on the models’ export (interstate or international) sensitivity and (2) corporate actions taken to facilitate uplisting to the NYSE, which we believe could happen as soon as next week. While our revised estimates and valuation at first blush appear to be very bullish, we believe the export optionality implied by the recent (and expected) regulatory changes and the export step change that drives the economics of Glass House’s model is simply too material to avoid layering in some of the potential upside into our expectations and valuation (even on the conservative assumption 25 per cent of the company’s revenue is generated outside California in 2027). On our read-through of existing and expected regulatory changes, we would be surprised if Glass House doesn’t see sales outside California in early 2027 (and possibly even late 2026). The above optionality, dovetailing with a potential uplisting we believe is compelling,” said Mr.
* After assuming coverage from a colleague, ATB Cormark’s Sairam Srinivas reduced the firm’s target for Mainstreet Equity Corp. (MEQ-T) to $225 from $245 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $245.50.
“In an environment where excess supply dominates the headlines with respect to purpose-built rentals, we believe MEQ’s Western Canada focused mid-market scaling model is uniquely positioned to grow cash flow through organic as well as inorganic channels,” he said.
* Scotia’s Ovais Habib increased his Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T) to $19 from $18.50 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $19.30.
“We visited the Koné Project site on June 19th and were impressed by the size, scale, and development progress of the project to date,” said Mr. Habib. “Exploration upside is apparent with several new high-grade satellite targets ready to be drill tested. On June 20th, we visited the Didievi site, which has excellent infrastructure in proximity to the Blaffo Guetto deposit. A high grade resource has already been delineated with potential to grow, and a potential to be MAU’s next development project that we believe could produce 200 koz Au per year, increasing consolidated gold production to ~600-700 koz by 2030. Koné is expected to pour first gold in Q4/26, with the feasibility study outlining average annual production of ~223 koz over a 16-year mine life, which management believes, with the exploration success to date (Resource now reaching over 8 Moz Au as of June 15, 2026), the mine has the potential to produce 350-400 koz on average in the first 10 years of mine life.
“We continue to rate MAU shares as SO and are increasing our PT to C$19.00 (from C$18.50). We believe MAU’s exploration team has the potential to continue increasing resources at both Koné and Didievi and, as such, we have increased our resource target estimates of both projects.”
* Scotia’s Kevin Fisk hiked his target for Parex Resources Inc. (PXT-T) to $29 from $20 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $35.17.
“The acquisition of Frontera Energy’s (FEC) Colombian upstream assets adds meaningful scale, portfolio diversification, upside through EOR/development opportunities, and was executed at a reasonable valuation. PXT will also realize synergies from the acquisition and the added free cash flow from the acquired assets will support annual production growth of 3-5 per cent and 1-2 high-impact exploration wells per year. Also, on June 21, Abelardo De la Espriella won Colombia’s Presidential election. Mr. De la Espriella intends to grow Colombia’s oil production through accelerating permitting, encouraging exploration, allowing fracking, and gradually reducing corporate taxes. This represents a significant reduction in the political and regulatory risk faced by producers. We have increased our target price to $29/sh to reflect PXT’s enhanced scale and Colombia’s improving business environment. We expect a positive share price reaction due to the outcome of the presidential election,” he said.
* Ventum’s Taylor Combaluzier initiated coverage of Toronto-based Talisker Resources Ltd. (TSK-T) with a “buy” rating and $4.25 target. The average is $4.75.
“Talisker is advancing its 100-per-cent-owned Bralorne Gold Complex in southern BC, where early production is underway. We see a pathway from current production levels toward 100 Koz Au by 2028. The key upcoming catalyst is the maiden PEA, which should give the market its first economic view of Bralorne and help Talisker start to close the valuation gap to peers,” said Mr. Combaluzier.