Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier thinks Aecon Group Inc.’s (ARE-T) joint venture with Técnicas Reunidas getting awarded a multi-billion dollar contract for the Greenlight Electricity Centre (GLEC) is “a positive, reflecting both ARE’s growing exposure to data centre–related infrastructure and its unique positioning to deliver this kind of large-scale power project.
“We are particularly encouraged by this award as GLEC is expected to be one of Alberta’s largest new sources of dispatchable power generation, supporting accelerating demand,” he said. “More specifically, the facility will provide behind-the-fence power for a major 932MW datacentre development in Alberta, with site capacity potentially expanding to 1,864MW. Notably, Pembina, a member of the GLEC partnership, has characterized the project as a blueprint for future development.”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Poirier said he thinks Toronto-based Aecon is ”uniquely positioned" to secure the contract for the 932-megawatt natural gas-fired combined cycle power generation facility, pointing to “its relevant experience and credentials, which were further strengthened by the EPC capabilities acquired through the United Engineers & Constructors tuck-in.”
“In our view, ARE’s specialized expertise should support premium pricing and make the fixed-price project’s margins accretive for ARE,” he added. “Additionally, the site’s permitted capacity of up to 1,864MW leaves room to roughly double the project over time, creating a potential follow-on opportunity for Aecon.”
The analyst updated his financial forecast for Aecon to reflect its $1.7-billion share of the contract value, which will be added to its Construction segment backlog in the third quarter of 2026.
“We assume approximately 75 per cent of project execution occurs between 2027–29, with the balance split between 2H26 and 1H30,“ he said. We increased our 2027 estimated revenue by 7 per cent and now model a 6.6-per-cent EBITDA margin for the period.”
Maintaining his “hold” rating for Aecon shares, Mr. Poirier raised his 12-month target to $61 from $55. The average target on the Street is $54.10, according to LSEG data.
Seeing it as “well-stocked, well-positioned,” Desjardins Securities analyst Gary Ho initiated coverage of Apotex Health Corp. (APTX-T) with a “buy” rating on Monday, calling it “Canada’s generic champion.”
On June 10, the country’s largest drug company raised $1.3-billion in its market debut by selling shares at $24 each, the top end of the range set by investment bankers underwriting the largest Canadian initial public offering since Definity Financial Corp., an insurer, went public in a $1.4-billion share offering in 2021.
On Monday, several analysts on the Street launched coverage of Toronto-based Apotex after coming off research restrictions related to the IPO.
“We are positive on APTX for several reasons: (1) Apotex holds 23 per cent of the Canadian generic market—one in five generic prescriptions in Canada is an Apotex product —a dominant position supported by 50+ years of brand equity, deep pharmacy relationships and a manufacturing footprint that competitors cannot easily replicate. (2) Demand is driven by an aging population and healthcare system cost pressures rather than the economic cycle, providing resilience across macro environments. (3) The business is diversifying rapidly—Conventional Generics fell to 46 per cent of revenue in FY26 from 59 per cent in FY23 (ex VLLP), with Specialty Generics and Brands & Biosimilars capturing share, tilting the portfolio toward higher-margin, higher-barrier products. (4) A forward pipeline of 480+ products (70 per cent first-to-market) across Canada, the US and International provides a visible organic growth runway. (5) Apo-Semaglutide, approved in May 2026 as one of Canada’s first generic semaglutides, represents a near-term catalyst, targeting a combined Ozempic/Wegovy market of $2.8-billiob in Canada in 2025,“ Mr. Ho said.
In a client report released before the bell, he said he conducted proprietary channel checks with industry contacts at a top three Canadian generic manufacturer and a top five global branded pharmaceutical company.
“Our key takeaways are: (1) first-to-market is the single largest driver of value in generics, with sticky share given the operational friction of switching suppliers and EBITDA margins on first-to-market products that can be more than 2-times consolidated margins; (2) branded margins during patent protection are highly attractive once R&D is recovered—not every LOE is an easy generic opportunity; (3) the Canadian market is attractive and cash-generative, with the TPF providing pricing stability, although better growth increasingly lies in complex generics, injectables and biosimilars; and (4) scale and portfolio breadth matter, as larger manufacturers with single-source molecules can blend down rebate rates across the basket—a structural advantage for Apotexm," he said.
Mr. Ho said he sees Apotex’s risk profile as “manageable, with most items inherent to the industry vs being company-specific.”
“First, regulatory risk—first-to-market positioning depends on Health Canada and FDA approval timing, and competitors with similar pipelines can leapfrog key launches,“ he explained. ”Second, pricing pressure—Canadian generic pricing is governed by the pCPA’s TPF (extended in June 2026 through October 2028), and national pharmacare could affect pricing dynamics over time. Third, manufacturing facility risk—the Richmond Hill site, which produces sterile ophthalmics for the U.S. market, received an FDA Warning Letter and an Official Action Indicated classification in 2025, prompting Apotex to voluntarily discontinue certain U.S. production while remediating."
Mr. Ho set a target of $40 per share, falling 67 cents under the average on the Street.
Others initiated coverage on Monday include:
* Raymond James’ Michael Freeman with an “outperform” rating and $36 target.
“Our constructive view is anchored in APTX’s ability to use its dominant (and growing) Canadian generics franchise as a funding engine for expansion into adjacent, higher-margin categories,” said Mr. Freeman. “Management’s Journey of Health strategy targets one-third revenue contribution from each of APTX’s conventional generics, specialty generics, and brands & biosimilars businesses by FY31, supported by a 485-product 5-year launch plan, a capital-light 50/50 internal-development/external-partnership model, and $300-million of planned productivity savings through FY31 (on top of $300-million saved since FY24). Beyond the FY31 horizon, we see opportunity in APTX’s U.S.-focused biosimilars business, its tentative U.S. FDA approval for generic semaglutide (2032 LOE), and the continuation of its partner-driven, brands-focused growth algorithm.
“We flag that APTX’s growth plans are execution-heavy. Beyond sustaining first-to-market performance, converting a large pipeline into commercial launches, integrating acquired/partnered assets, and managing normal generic price erosion, APTX must replace profit contribution from its now-concluded, windfall Revlimid volume-limited license product (VLLP) deal. We expect headline FY27 results to reset as VLLP revenue/profit rolls off, though underlying performance remains healthier than reported numbers may appear, with FY26 ex-VLLP revenue and adj. EBITDA up 9 per cent and 20 per cent year-over-year, respectively, and our FY27 estimates implying strong continued ex-VLLP growth. If management executes, APTX should demonstrate that its Canadian generics base is not the ceiling of the story, but rather the cash-flow ballast enabling a more diversified, higher-margin Americas healthcare platform with ascendant earnings quality, cash flow durability, and upward re-rating potential.”
* Stifel’s Justin Keywood with a “buy” rating and $42 target.
“Apotex is leveraging its domestic dominance and leading Canadian Generic drug share (23 per cent) into a global pharmaceutical health and wellness powerhouse with expanding TAMs [total addressable markets] of +$1 trillion,” he said. “The company has recapitalized with a well-oversubscribed $1.5b IPO to execute on the ‘Golden Age’ of Medicines with accelerated innovation and AI in early-stage trials as a historical patent cliff looms of $300-billion Rx opportunity (next five-years), driving near record-level M&A year-to-date. Apotex has the ingredients to succeed, including an exceptional team and sector-leading ROIC (more than 20 per cent) with 70-per-cent-plus first-to-market launch rate, leading to the first Canadian-company approval of generic semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy) with sharp early demand as per Stifel’s Proprietary Pharmacy survey. As a $300-million efficiency initiative advances and mix-shift change benefits show with greater specialty generics/brands & biosimilars, we anticipate strong, 30-per-cent EBITDA margins through a waterfall of launches (+480 by 2031), leading to greater valuation.”
* RBC’s Douglas Miehm with an “outperform” rating and $43 target.
“We initiate on Apotex with an Outperform and $43 PT, seeing APTX as a highly differentiated generics firm that should underpin a premium valuation. As leader in the attractive CDN generic industry (23-per-cent share) and a top-10 player in the U.S. market, we believe APTX can successfully harness improving industry fundamentals, capturing a disproportionate amount of economic value due to its strong first to market (FTM) abilities, and allow it to maintain industry high ROIC and strong financial metrics vs comps,” said Mr. Miehm.
* National Bank’s Nathan Po with an “outperform” rating and $43 target.
“We rate APTX Outperform as we see a visible path for the company to push its upper-quartile ROIC higher with margin and productivity initiatives on its Journey of Health, while also leaving the door open to a re-rating as it shifts its portfolio towards higher-value products (e.g., GLP-1s) in an opportunity-rich environment,” said Mr. Po.
* Bloom Burton’s David Martin with a “buy” rating and $40 target.
“Investors seeking an attractively priced company with strong cash flow, synergistic growth opportunities and operating in a sector with multiple tailwinds, are encouraged to BUY APTX,” said Mr. Martin.
* Scotia’s Louise Chen with a “sector outperform” rating and $40 target.
“We highlight three key points regarding APTX: #1. APTX’s Journey of Health (JoH) strategy is not fully reflected in its valuation yet. #2. APTX is a leading Canada-based company with global reach, which comes with important competitive advantages. #3. There are many upside opportunities for sales and earnings expectations,” said Ms. Chen.
* BMO’s Evan Seigerman with an “outperform” rating and $39 target.
“Our positive view is based on: 1) A durable moat and number-one position in the Canadian generic/specialty pharma market provide a solid foundation for continued top-line growth; 2) A focused expansion strategy in the U.S. and certain international markets positions Apotex to compete and win; 3) An ongoing portfolio mix shift toward higher-value specialty generics, brands, and biosimilars drives margin expansion and revenue upside; and 4) IPO-driven deleveraging leaves the company well-positioned for multiple expansion,” he said.
While seeing Calgary-based Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR-T) “poised for growth,” RBC’s Head of Global Energy Research Greg Pardy initiated coverage with a “sector perform” recommendation based on its relative valuation and implied return to target versus its peers.
“Greenfire experienced several operational setbacks in past years under its former leadership team but now appears poised for substantial upstream growth with 26 SAGD well pairs set to come on-stream over the next year or so at Hangingstone Expansion,” HE he said. “Provided that its execution comes together under its new but experienced operations team, the company’s average bitumen production should rise over 70 per cent from approximately 14,500 bbl/d in 2026 to nearly 25,000 bbl/d in 2028. That growth should also drive Greenfire’s free cash flow generation amid an improving unit cost structure and lower capital investment.”
Mr. Pardy thinks the company’s “considerable” growth potential come “under the watchful eye” of Adam Waterous, emphasizing the Waterous Energy Fund (WEF) is Greenfire’s major shareholder with a 72-per-cent interest.
“Greenfire is focused on driving organic growth at Hangingstone Expansion and unlocking the value of its deep resource base but may opportunistically pursue acquisitions in the Athabasca area,” he added. “In our discussions with Adam Waterous, Executive Chairman of both Greenfire and Strathcona Resources (circa 67-per-cent owned by WEF), we understand there are currently no plans to merge the two companies.
“Big investment—big growth. Greenfire is net debt free following last year’s $300 million rights offering, the proceeds of which were used to redeem its outstanding notes. With 26 new SAGD well-pairs slated to come on- stream over the next 12 months at Hangingstone Expansion, Greenfire’s production should rise over 70 per cent into 2028."
Also noting its rising free cash flow generation, Mr. Pardy set a target of $10 per share. The average is $9.75.
“Our price target of $10 per share reflects a 50-per-cent weighting towards a 5.5 times debt-adjusted cash flow multiple applied to our 2027 cash flow outlook at mid-cycle prices (US$75 WTI) and a 50-per-cent weighting towards a 1.0-times multiple of our estimated 2P NAV (risked) of $11.05,” he said. “The valuation we have chosen reflects Greenfire’s strong balance sheet, long-life resource base, shareholder alignment and organic growth profile, partially offset by the need to demonstrate successful execution with its growth initiatives.”
Citi analyst Bryan Burgmeier is not surprised GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL-N, GFL-T) is receiving outside interest about a potential privatization “as shares are heavily discounted relative to large-cap peers.”
Waste management giant GFL held investment talks with Apollo
“GFL has traded at a discount since April’20 IPO due to elevated net leverage, an overhang from private-equity ownership and lower margins,” he said. “In Feb ’25, GFL sold a majority stake in its ES business to generate cash to address these concerns (reduce leverage, accelerate internal investment & Solid Waste consolidation) and potentially re-rate as a pure-play Solid Waste company.
“Re-rating was short-lived and shares reached all-time low valuation in May ’26, according to FactSet, following an announcement to purchase Secure in April ’26.”
Believing its shares “appear oversold,” Mr. Burgmeier has a “buy” rating and US$51 target. The average is US$52.96.
“We see potential upside to ’26 guidance due to 1Q outperformance and higher recycled commodity prices,” he said.
“We value GFL at 24x our 2027 FCFPS estimate, comparable to peers to reflect lesser scale and lower margins offset by outsized growth potential. We further add $5/share value to reflect value in GIP & ES assets. We value GFL at a premium to history to reflect lower net leverage and improved FCF conversion, faster EBITDA growth, and near pure-play portfolio.”
Elsewhere, National Bank’s Maxim Sytchev thinks GFL selling at “below $90+ [per share] would not make a huge amount of sense to us.”
“While there has been no official comment from GFL management [on Friday], the market responded by lifting GFL shares by 8 per cent on the day - vs. up 1 per cent for the TSX – partially moderating the downward trend since the $71 peak reached last August,“ he said. ”In the same time span, GFL’s valuation had contracted significantly while the previously closed gap to peers (following last year’s monetization of the ES stake) had reappeared in full force. Despite Friday’s rally, we remain firmly bullish on GFL given its growing presence in a highly defensive industry, ownership over scarce landfill assets supporting mid-single-digit pricing power, a proven and value-additive M&A playbook, as well as several organic “self-help” strategic and operational initiatives driving steady margin expansion through 2028E."
“The market is enthralled with AI right now, leaving some of the old economy stocks such as GFL in the dust, compounded by the tougher organic growth dynamic post-pandemic as we are in a low single-digit range (a similar dynamic experienced by peers). This unfavourable combination will not persist forever, especially with SECURE in the fold. As a result, selling a compounding business with a material moat like GFL at this point anywhere below $90+ would not make a huge amount of sense to us. The Bloomberg article, of course, provided no pricing reference points, making the entire valuation debate somewhat hypothetical. In a world where the Canadian political and economic establishment is trying to re-accelerate growth (especially in Western Canada where GFL will soon own a much larger platform), the opportunity cost of seeing GFL taken out of the public domain must reflect this improving sentiment. If, on top of that, the AI trade comes off the boil, investors will be clamouring for anything old school. We see fundamental upside in the name, with any M&A speculation only highlighting the attractiveness of the asset base.”
Mr. Sytchev has an “outperform” rating and US$81 target for GFL shares.
National Bank Financial analyst Rabi Nizami thinks Mining Americas Inc. (MAI-T) is “emerging from an organizational and financial restructuring with an improved capital structure and multi-year growth roadmap.”
Last week, the Toronto-based gold production and development company announced its approval to graduate to the TSX and shareholder approval of the company’s formal name change from Minera Alamos Inc.
“The start of construction at Copperstone [in La Paz County, Arizona] marks an important milestone which puts the company back in position to execute and demonstrate its mine-building capabilities,” said Mr. Nizami. “The company is embarking on a series of rapid and low-cost mine builds with consolidated production growth towards more than 150 koz per annum.
“The Pan Mine [White Pine County, Nevada] anchors the current portfolio as the cash flow engine (35 koz in 2026), construction is now underway at Copperstone (46 koz/yr), and is to be followed by Gold Rock (40 koz) and Cerro de Oro (55-60 koz). The balance sheet is supported with NBCCM estimated US$75-million available liquidity from debt plus Pan mine free cash flows.”
The analyst has an “outperform” rating and $9.50 target for Mining Americas shares, matching the average on the Street.
“We apply a Speculative risk qualifier, given the earlier stage of the company’s ambitious growth projects and an expectation for exploration upside and positive permit approvals and amendments factored into the outlook,” he added.
In other analyst actions:
* After hosting Toronto-based Vital Infrastructure Property Trust (VITL.UN-T) for discussions focused on its capital allocation priorities, ATB Cormark’s Sairam Srinivas raised his rating to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a $7 target, up from $6.25 and above the $6.22 average.
“As the only Canadian pure-play inpatient/outpatient investment vehicle, we believe VITL with its global experience and liquidity is uniquely positioned to execute its U.S. expansion strategy,” he said. “While the short-term accretion from this strategic pivot may seem moderate, we believe exiting international markets and focusing its operations in North America could unlock both top-line growth and operational synergies that could translate into significant FFO growth in the long term.”
* Seeing recent share price weakness creating an attractive entry point for investors, Jefferies’ Fahad Tariq upgraded Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-N, AEM-T) to “buy” from “hold” with a US$200 target, up from US$187. The average is US$260.01.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Amr Ezzat initiated coverage of Xtract One Technologies Inc. (XTRA-T) with a “speculative buy” rating and $1.20 target, matching the average.
“While Xtract One recently achieved its first quarter of positive EBITDA, profitability remains thin, and we believe the market is underestimating the operating leverage embedded in the model as deployments scale. While we have followed Xtract One from a distance over the years, we were never drawn in due to the company’s earlier, spending-heavy approach. A new management team took the reins in late 2020, focused on disciplined execution and long-term commercial viability. Today, we see a different story unfolding. This team has built a credible track record of cost control, strategic clarity, and consistent progress. We believe the market is still treating Xtract One as a cash-burning start-up, creating a disconnect between the company’s fundamentals and its valuation. In our view, this presents a compelling opportunity to invest ahead of a period of accelerating growth, expanding margins, and sustainable profitability,” said Mr. Ezzat.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Neville raised his Air Canada (AC-T) target to $26 from $20 with a “hold” rating. The average is $24.94.
“With jet fuel prices off 35 per cent plus from peak, we are significantly increasing our estimates. In fact, our revised 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate is back within the original range the company provided in February (of $3.35-billion to $3.75-billion), despite higher spot jet fuel prices (vs. pre-war) – a reflection of the durability of demand/price discipline of industry, in our view. It also remains to be seen how quickly/meaningfully air fare pricing adjusts to lower jet fuel costs, potentially setting the stage for upside to our revised estimates. Given the ‘reset’ in estimates, we have lowered our valuation multiple to 4.0 times on our 2027E (from 4.25 times) to reflect the countercyclical relationship between oil/jet fuel, earnings, and multiple. Taken together, our price target increases to $26.00. We reiterate our HOLD rating but have become incrementally more positive on AC given the company’s/industry’s ability to navigate a significant (albeit short-lived) price shock,” said Mr. Neville.