Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Following better-than-anticipated first-quarter fiscal 2027 results from CAE Inc. (CAE-T), RBC Dominion Securities analyst James McGarragle raised his rating for its shares to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously, seeing its “transformation gaining traction.”
“We liked the transformation plan when it was initially disclosed — the issue for us was never the strategy, it was execution certainty and valuation,” he said in a client note. “Q1 is the first quarter for us where that certainty is building: all 8 workstreams on track, order momentum accelerating, and FCF improving. Critically, customer attrition from network rationalization is tracking below 1 per cent of Civil revenue — a materially better outcome than we feared and in our view the single most important de-risking data point in the quarter. The early progress, combined with attractive valuation, creates a compelling entry point.”
On Aug. 12, the Montreal-based company reported adjusted operating income of $157-million, above the consensus projection of $152-million and Mr. McGarragle’s $153-million forecast. Adjusted earnings per share of 26 cents exceeded the 23-cent expectation of both the analyst and Street.
“Q1 marked a step forward in CAE’s transformation, and we came away more constructive,” he explained. “All 8 workstreams are progressing on schedule, $133-million of the $200–250-million total cost has been incurred, and customer attrition from network rationalization is tracking below 1 per cent of Civil revenue — better than we had expected and, in our view, the most important data point in the quarter. Limited customer attrition, combined with a materially decreased real estate footprint, will be a major driver of operating leverage looking ahead.
‘More confidence in the Civil recovery; Defense a growing tailwind. Adj. Civil margin declined but we view the FQ1 weakness as transitory — two-thirds is Middle East-related and the balance tied to discrete transformation costs, with management guiding to no incremental fullyear risk. Utilization improved to 72.2 per cent from 68.8 per cent, and Civil order intake surged 64 per cent year-over-year for a 1.31-times book-to-sales ratio, anchored by a 15-year WestJet agreement and a multi-year FFS contract with Turkish Airlines. We see a credible path to margin recovery as headwinds subside and transformation savings flow through in F28. On Defense, CAE delivered operating leverage and we see the $10.7-billion backlog — now complemented by a newly quantified more than $5-billion incremental pipeline anchored by OEM partnerships with Leonardo, Saab, and TKMS — as underscoring a multiyear growth runway."
Seeing an “attractive” valuation, Mr. McGarragle hiked his target for CAE shares to $46 from $38. The average on the Street is $42.33.
“Our prior cautious view was based on execution uncertainty and valuation,” he said. “Early progress on the plan gives us more confidence, and we therefore assign a higher multiple to our F30 estimate. Key here is that management’s cost savings and Civil revenue targets imply upside to our long-term estimates — making the current 17 times F30 P/E multiple even more attractive as a starting point. Overall, we see the 25-timesx multiple we assign to F30 earnings as conservative (a touch below peers) for a company we expect to compound EPS at a 20-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] F27 to F30.”
Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman downgraded his rating for shares of TerraVest Industries Inc. (TVK-T) to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” on Monday, believing “the story is looking increasingly catalyst-light.”
“While the company may benefit from additional data center tank deliveries, these are likely already reflected in consensus estimates to some degree,” he added in a report reviewing last week’s release of largely in-line third-quarter 2026 results.
“It appears EnTrans declined sequentially whereas we thought there was a stabilization trend and there are no imminent signs of a trailer market recovery, The company completed three tuck-ins since June 1, but given the lack of disclosures, we assume they were immaterial. With net debt to EBITDA including leases at 3.7 times (or 2.6 times excluding leases), we don’t anticipate any needle-moving M&A in the near term.”
Mr. Goldman also warned that recent allegations linking executive chairman Charles Pellerin to insider trading in reports by the Journal de Montreal may continue to be an “overhang” for shares of the Alberta-based manufacturer of fuel storage tanks.
“To be clear, no official charges have been brought, but AMF investigations can take years,” the analyst said. “An internal company investigation is ongoing, but we have not observed any changes in governance or capital markets strategy, such as initiating public earnings calls or delineating contributions from DC tanks, U.S. Army contract, or EnTrans.
“That opacity could limit the institutional audience. TVK shares trade at 9.4 times EV/EBITDA on our F2027E. In light of the above, we find it hard to argue for a premium to peers or to our coverage universe (average EV/EBITDA 9.1 times on 2027E). Of note, the company repurchased 260k shares since May or 1.2 per cent of shares outstanding.
Mr. Goldman reduced his target for Terravest shares to $129 from $134. The average target on the Street is $159.
Elsewhere, analysts making target revisions include:
* National Bank’s Nathan Po to $180 from $170 with an “outperform” rating.
“Management remains positive on the data centre opportunity and expects contributions to continue growing sequentially. FQ3 supports that view, with large data centre projects driving much of the growth in HVAC, and spare capacity in other segments increasingly being redirected to support this work. As utilization moves toward a more steady-state level and the project slate broadens, small customer-induced delays should be less disruptive, though the size of individual projects can still create quarterly revenue and EBITDA lumpiness,” said Mr. Po.
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $175 from $170 with a “buy” rating.
“TVK delivered a strong EBITDA/EBITDA margin beat vs our forecast and consensus. Data centre tank demand drove a blowout HVAC result and inflected organic growth positive, more than offsetting continued tank trailer softness at EnTrans. Looking forward, we are encouraged by data centre backlog extending through 2027, the DoD contract ramping toward full-rate production starting in January 2027 and disciplined capital deployment, said Mr. Ho.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Maurice Choy upgraded both Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. (TWM-T) and Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS-T) to “outperform” ratings for “sector perform” previously.
Mr. Choy raised his target for Tidewater Midstream to $30 from $18. The average is $23.60.
“Tidewater Midstream’s return to a more stable business should ultimately lead certain investors to take a renewed look at its stock,” he said. “Together with potential upcoming catalysts at both its deconsolidated business and its 69-per-cent- owned Tidewater Renewables, we see the potential for the continuation of the stock’s recent favourable price performance, leading to our rating upgrade to Outperform, Spec. Risk. As these catalysts progressively materialize and the scope of Tidewater Midstream’s investor base expands, higher level strategic questions will arise, which may lead to a wide range of outcomes and potentially favourable valuation.”
His target for Tidewater Renewables doubled to $25, exceeding the $21.75 average, from $12.50.
“Having patiently observed positive shifts in Tidewater Renewables’ business fundamentals, our upgrade to Outperform reflects Tidewater Renewables’ stronger footing today and moving forward that is largely supported by: (1) a clearer, more supportive regulatory backdrop in Canada and the U.S.; (2) materially improved balance sheet health; and (3) the prospect of a major EBITDA uplift through the SAF project that may achieve FID in Q4/26 and be equity self-funded,” Mr. Choy said. “Beyond these themes, Tidewater Renewables’ share price performance will also be influenced by the potential reunification with Tidewater Midstream, which we believe would have several benefits.”
Saputo Inc.’s (SAP-T) sale of its dairy division in the United Kingdom to Lactalis for nearly $1.86-billion represents an “attractive” valuation, according to National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar, who now sees its balance sheet “set up to drive growth.”
“Our estimates suggest that the U.K. business will be sold at approximately 13 times NTM [next 12 month] EBITDA, and the deal will be accretive to F2028 EPS by 4 per cent,” he said. “We consider this sale of U.K. assets to be attractive given tepid growth from the U.K. segment and an attractive multiple from the sale. We model SAP Q4/F27E pro forma net debt to EBITDA of 0.50 times, well below SAP’s target of 2.25 times.
“Given a strong balance sheet, we believe SAP has the capacity to return capital, invest in organic growth and pursue M&A. Using average acquisition parameters, we estimate that SAP has acquisition capacity of $4-billion (debt funded at 10 times EBITDA and synergies of 10 per cent of acquired EBITDA, among other assumptions), which could be 9-per-cent accretive to EPS.”
Shares of the Montreal-based dairy giant closed narrowly higher on Friday following the premarket announcement of the deal, which al includes five manufacturing facilities, along with its local brands such as Cathedral City, Wensleydale, Davidstow, Clover and Country Life.
“The U.K. business generated LTM [last 12-month] sales of $1.2-billion (approximately 7 per cent of total revenue),” said Mr. Shreedhar. NBCCM estimates NTM EBITDA of $143-million (8 per cent of total NTM EBITDA).
“We revised our estimates to reflect the sale of the U.K. business. Our F2027E EPS is unchanged at $2.14 and F2028E EPS is $2.43 from $2.33. Given SAP’s strong capital position, a key consideration for investors is future possible acquisitions, and whether they will be accretive for investors. Recall, SAP recently noted that it won’t shy away from M&A on the path to growth, with the U.S. being the most likely target, while Australia remains a key asset.”
With his forecast adjustments, Mr. Shreedhar raised his target for Saputo shares to $47 from $45, reaffirming a “sector perform” rating. The average target is $47.86.
“Looking forward, we expect investor focus to be on steady execution amid a volatile commodity and uncertain macro backdrop,” he said. “While we expect continued benefits from capital projects, we believe the story will increasingly shift to a focus on accelerating profitable organic growth and M&A.”
Ventum Financial analyst George Doumet says he’s “becoming more constructive on the setup” for High Liner Foods Inc. (HLF-T).
In a client report titled Muddy Waters, Improving Currents, he said there are “two key unlocks” for the stock to work: “sustained low single-digit volume growth and leverage moving into the mid-2 times range.”
“Q2 provided encouraging evidence on the former, while cash generation and tariff recoveries should drive the latter over the next two to three quarters,” said Mr. Doumet, who thinks both variables are “increasingly within reach.”
After the bell on Thursday, the Lunenburg, N,S.-based frozen seafood company reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for its second quarter of 2026 of $30-million, blowing past both Mr. Doumet’s $23-million estimate and the consensus forecast of $22-million due largely to $8-million of tariff recoveries.
“Volumes of 57.0 million lbs increased 4.0 per cent year-over-year, ahead of our 55.1 million estimate and consensus at 56.1 million, despite a Q2/25 comparison benefiting from roughly 19 additional Lent days,” he added. “More encouraging was the quality of growth: promotions moderated materially post-Lent, yet volumes held, including continued club purchases after promotions rolled off. We view this as evidence of a better elasticity outcome than the 1 million lbs decline we had modelled. Canadian retail gained share across several key brands (Pan Sear, High Liner Family Packs, Catch of the Day, Sea Cuisine), while foodservice remained softer amid continued trade down. Full-year low single-digit volume growth guidance was maintained (inclusive of the extra week last year); we model 2.7-per-cent volume growth in 2026 and 3.0 per cent in 2027.”
Mr. Doumet thinks the headline recovery from tariffs “overstates the benefit,” noting: “Q2 included $5.7-million of IEEPA tariff costs, leaving the $7.9-million recovery worth closer to $2.2-million net to earnings. A further $27.9-million received post-quarter will flow through Q3, with roughly half the total claim tied to 2025. More importantly, blended tariff rates have fallen to 10 per cent to 12.5 per cent from the high teens under IEEPA. We now model $2 to $3-million of quarterly tariff costs versus $5.7-million in Q2.”
“... but HLF is still fishing for price,” he added. “Cod remains supply constrained, while haddock and pollock are seeing stronger demand as customers shift toward lower-cost whitefish alternatives. Pink salmon is also turning inflationary following a weak Alaska catch, with aquaculture providing some relief. Fuel, distribution and packaging costs add further pressure. Given the lag between input costs and customer pricing, we expect another pricing round in 2H, with value-added foodservice and branded retail likely remaining behind the cost curve into year-end.
”Fully cooked, not fully baked in. Innovation is contributing to growth, with 24 new items launched year to date driving incremental listings and distribution. Sea Cuisine Guinness Battered Fish Strips have been the standout, while new skillet meals expand HLF beyond the traditional seafood aisle. The fully cooked platform is also gaining traction across U.S. convenience and Canadian foodservice. The next step is converting distribution into volume, which we expect to build gradually."
Following “minimal” changes to his forecast, largely to account for tariffs, Mr. Doumet increased his target for High Liner shares by $1 to $16.50, maintaining a “neutral” rating. The average target on the Street is $17.13.
Elsewhere, RBC’s Ryland Conrad raised his target to $18 from $16 with a “sector perform” rating.
“In our 2025 initiation Strong Hull, Stormy Horizon, we acknowledged that while not immune to industry headwinds, management continues to execute on strategic initiatives (distribution expansion, innovation, logical M&A etc.) to support sales volumes, and seafood has runway for growth as consumers prioritize protein. That said, against the backdrop of low consumer sentiment and inflationary headwinds, the operating environment remains challenging with downward pressure on margins and/or consumption in the near-term. As such, we remain on the sidelines and look for greater visibility on potential catalysts,” said Mr. Conrad.
National Bank Financial analyst Baltej Sidhu thinks Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.’s (BEP-N, BEP.UN-T) acquisition of Boralex Inc. “adds a sizeable, highly contracted renewable platform” to its portfolio.
On Friday, Brookfield and its deal partner La Caisse announced the completion of the transaction for the Quebec-based renewable energy company for around $9-billion, including debt. It will own 70 per cent of the platform after funding its investment through existing liquidity and normal course sources, including corporate debt, up-financings, asset recycling and a portion of the proceeds from its US$650-million equity issuance last year
“Integrating BLX, we see BEP’s 17.5-per-cent interest to increase its long-term average generation by 5 per cent, drive 2-per-cent immediate accretion to 2026E FFO/unit and lift 2027E by 4 per cent,” said Mr. Sidhu. “With 90 per cent of Boralex’s cash flows contracted, we estimate the transaction should ultimately serve to crystallize US$1.50–$2.00/unit of value for BEP, with further upside as it applies its capital recycling and asset optimization playbook. Notably, the partnership with La Caisse also strengthens local alignment in Québec and enhances Brookfield’s positioning for future renewable procurement opportunities across Canada.”
“The transaction supports BEP’s more than 10-per-cent annual FFO/unit growth target by adding scale, contracted cash flows and a sizeable 8 GW development pipeline. Backed by BEP’s financial flexibility, the pipeline provides a meaningful runway for follow-on capital deployment, extending the value creation opportunity well beyond the initial investment. Combined with BEP’s capital recycling and asset optimization playbook, we see scope to compound returns while preserving balance sheet flexibility. The deal also reinforces Brookfield’s ability to capitalize on public market valuation dislocations, deploy capital within its 12–15-per-cent target IRR framework and advance its US$9–10-billion five-year investment objective.”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Brookfield Renewable shares, Mr. Sidhu raised his target to US$38 from US$37. The average is currently US$38.13.
In other analyst actions:
* In a client report titled Cooler Heads Suggest Giving ATS Another Shot, Scotia Capital’s Jonathan Goldman dropped his ATS Corp. (ATS-T) target to $31 from $46, keeping a “sector outperform” rating. The average target is $44.77.
“F1Q revenues of $694 million missed the low-end of guidance ($700-million to $740-million), which was set on May 28, only one month before quarter-end, which suggests limited visibility at best,” said Mr. Goldman. “We analyzed 10 possible scenarios for F2Q and think there is good probability that the company hits the mid-point of guidance. Moreover, it seems like estimates and valuation are mostly de-risked: using conservative assumptions – only GDP growth since F2020 and no margin expansion from F2020 other than announced cost savings – we estimate normalized earnings power is EBITDA of $420-million and FCFPS of $1.75. Using a 5.75-per-cent yield – 200 basis points spread to the CAD10Y – implies a price of $31/share. The one thing that gives us pause is consensus estimates for 2HF27, particularly revenues, seem too high. We remain SO-rated for now pending Street revisions.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar moved his Automotive Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (APR.UN-T) target to $14 from $13 with a “buy” rating.
“2Q results were highlighted by the Vaughan transaction and backfill of the property, strong leasing execution, and the REIT’s second consecutive annual distribution increase. We continue to have high confidence in APR’s business, which has delivered consistent results and offers meaningful acquisition upside. Our forecast calls for a 6.5-per-cent FFOPU CAGR [funds from operations per unit compound annual growth rate] through 2028. We do not believe the earnings growth is appropriately reflected in the REIT’s current valuation,” said Mr. Kalmar.
* TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme hiked his target for Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) to $85 from $72 with a “buy” rating. The average is $73.71.
“Q2/26’s print (marked by strong rev. growth & solid margin gain) highlights the type of results we expect BDT will continue to deliver this year and next. Supported by its record backlog, robust pending backlog, healthy demand across key target end-mkts., further margin improvement opportunity, and potential upside from acquisitions (not in our forecast), we are constructive on BDT’s outlook,” said Mr. Tupholme.
* RBC’s Pammi Bir increased his target for units of Dream Office REIT (D.UN-T) to $20, above the $19.61 average, from $18.50 with a “sector perform” rating.
“On the back of good results, our outlook on D has improved. Supported by strengthening office fundamentals, the organic growth recovery should continue to unfold. As economic occupancy in D’s Toronto portfolio rises toward committed levels, the pieces appear to be in place for earnings and NAV growth to accelerate over the N18M [next 18 months]. Though more work remains ahead, the improvement in leverage is also encouraging. Net-net, valuation seems reasonable,” said Mr. Bir.
* Mr. Bir moved his Plaza Retail REIT (PLZ.UN-T) target to $5.50 from $4.75 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $4.85.
“Maintaining Sector Perform, PT to $5.50 (up $0.75) post good Q2 results and the strategic review update. Operationally, stronger traction is forming supported by resilient demand and optimization initiatives. With the REIT formally in play, the timing is ideal. From our lens, Axia’s $5.28/unit unsolicited cash takeover bid reflects a decent valuation. That said, our PT is modestly above the offer given the potential for a sweetened bid or alternative transaction on the back of additional interest received.”
* RBC’s Jimmy Shan cut his GO Residential REIT (GO.U-T) target by US$1 to US$12.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is US$14.07.
“Q2 operating metrics continue to reflect strong underlying Manhattan market. The proposed HR transaction sure feels like a bold, aggressive (and costly) move to remedy GO’s public market experience since IPO. Our view is that while the proposed transaction provides the conditions for potential re-rate, it will take convincing and time given the combination of meaningful NAV erosion, execution risk and strategy drift. With the stock 12 per cent lower since the announcement and now implying 6.5-per-cent cap rate (6.9-per-cent proforma HR) and less than 10 times AFFO, the stock, yet again, offers an asymmetric profile,” said Mr. Shan.
* National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé trimmed his target for Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC-T) to $6.25 from $6.50, keeping a “sector perform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Craig Hutchison cut his Lithium Americas Corp. target to US$4.50 from US$5 with a “hold” rating. The average target is $8.97.
“While the roll-forward increases our Thacker Pass project NAV, this is largely offset by higher negative corporate adjustments as additional DOE debt is drawn. We have also now incorporated the Yorkville convertible debentures, including the initial $150-million issuance, which we view as effectively in the money and therefore reflect through a higher diluted share count in our NAV per share calculation. As a result, we trim our price target,” said Mr. Sidibé
* Mr. Sidibé raised his target for shares of NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T) by $1 to $21 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $22.25.
“The quarter marked Rook I’s transition from permitting to execution, with licensed construction beginning June 8 following site mobilization and early works. Management stated that planned milestones remain on scope, budget and schedule. We model first production in 2031,” he said.
* National Bank’s Shane Nagle increased his Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. (MTA-X) target to $16.50 from $15, exceeding the $13.62 average, with an “outperform” rating.
“We have incorporated Q2 financial results and aligned our estimates with operator commentary (where available). Our target price has increased owing to adopting a higher target multiple given upcoming catalysts and increased stake from Tether. Our Outperform rating remains supported by the pending step-change in FCF as six of the Company’s royalty interests are ramping up production throughout 2026. We see a compelling long-dated portfolio offering an opportunity to grow towards 50,000 GEOs/year over the next decade, largely from royalties on large-scale projects in the hands of Senior/Intermediate counterparties. Tether now has a 14.13-per-cent stake in MTA, raising expectations of further consolidation in the industry,” said Mr. Nagle.