Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Believing it is “too painful on the sidelines,” National Bank Financial analyst Maxum Sytchev upgraded Finning International Inc. (FTT-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” after its first-quarter results displayed “improving sustainable” earnings per share growth.
“CAT/TIH [peers Caterpillar and Finning International] are trading at 30 times/27 times P/E on 2027Eestimates; yes, we think the base metals space will always be cyclical but when accounting for the more friendly CAD resource development (construction names are all the rage, for a reason), incremental primary and backup data centre opportunity in Canada, and Argentina potentially becoming a more meaningful contributor vs. current 6 per cent to 7 per cent of the top line over time, the curvature of the EPS trajectory is getting better and higher,” he said in a client report titled No point in digging in.
“As a result, we are bringing our target P/E on Finning closer to that of TIH’s (to 23 times on 2027E projections from prior 18 times). The too early downgrade in May 2025 has been a wrong call as FTT’s opportunity set continues to improve on impressive operational execution. Credit has to be given where it’s due. We are upgrading FTT shares.”
After the bell on Tuesday, the Vancouver-based industrial equipment dealer reported net revenue for the quarter of $2.5-billion, up 2 per cent year-over-year and narrowly below the expectations of Mr. Sytchev ($2.56-billion) and the Street ($2.53-billion). Adjusted earnings per share of $1.02 was a penny below the analyst’s projection but a penny above the consensus forecast, while the backlog stood at $3.8-billion, which is an all-time high and up 32 per cent from the same period in the last fiscal year.
Mr. Sytchev was optimistic about the trajectory of the company following the conference call with management, touting “broad-based strength” in bookings and seeing a rising equipment population sustaining a tailwind for its Product Support business.
“Canada and LatAm truck population continues to grow,” he explained. “Finning’s mining truck population has expanded to about 1,500 units globally – a 35-per-cent increase (8 per cent compound annual growth rate) since 2021. Management expects continued growth in both Canada and LatAm, with declining ore grades (more material needs to be moved) and longer haul distances (as mines are dug downwards and outwards) providing significant secular tailwinds. While the inventory build for backlog/ growth weighed on FCF in the quarter, this is, of course, a first-class problem to have. More importantly, this creates a bigger and longer high-margin PS revenue tail.”
“More confidence in the sustainability of construction sector momentum. Management noted a 30-per-cent year-over-year increase in construction segment order intake – an encouraging number despite the inherent lumpiness of orders – improving revenue visibility incrementally. In Canada, FTT continues to gain market share in the sector (though oil sands are still the dominant profit driver), which now sits at a decade-plus high and creates further opportunities for sustainable PS revenues. While ‘nation-building’ projects have not explicitly contributed to the backlog yet, the tone in the industry has improved significantly vs. just a few years ago.”
Also seeing a “big scope of data centre opportunities in Alberta, but longer-dated in nature,” Mr. Sytchev “slightly” raised his forecasts for 2027 “as the company continues to show impressive backlog growth (up 32 per cent year-over-year) with new deliveries expected to carry the growth baton for the remainder of this year.”
Those changes led him to hike his target for Finning shares to $115 from $89. The average target on the Street is $104, according to LSEG data.
Elsewhere, Raymond James’ Steve Hansen raised his target to $120 from $100 with an “outperform” rating.
“We are increasing our target price on Finning International ... based: 1) the company’s solid 1Q26 print; 2) outstanding Product Support growth in Canada; 3) increased Construction & Power momentum (incl. W.Can data centers); 4) new record backlog ($3.8-billion); & 5) robust market outlook,” said Mr. Hansen.
Following better-than-anticipated first-quarter results, National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle says he continues to see “improving momentum” throughout the second half of the year for Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV-T), pointing to “progressing towards resumption of production from Cobre Panamá, significant tailwinds from elevated oil & gas prices, improved option value given its large-scale portfolio, and a more compelling valuation relative to peers.”
That led him to raise his rating for the Toronto-based gold-focused royalty and streaming company to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“[Cobre Panamá] is resuming processing of stockpiles in H2 and with completion of environmental audit, First Quantum is expected to resume negotiations with the Government of Panamá,” said Mr. Nagle. “We also see significant tailwinds from elevated oil & gas prices through the remainder of the year - oil & gas account for 10 per cent of Q1/26 GEOs and at spot prices, oil & gas GEOs could account for 10 per cent of our GEOs estimate for 2026. We also see potential for additional option value within FNV’s portfolio as operators take advantage of higher gold prices to lower cut-off grades and embark on expansion/development initiatives as well as increase exploration budgets improving optionality within FNV’s royalty business model.
“At 1.98 times NAV (peers: 2.04 times) and 18.0 times EV/2027E CF - with only partial contributions from Cobre Panama (peers: 17.5 times), FNV is now trading at a more compelling valuation. We await progress updates on reopening Cobre Panamá, which, aside from incremental acquisitions, represents the most significant catalyst for the company’s near-term growth outlook.”
After the bell on Tuesday, Franco-Nevada reported adjusted EBITDA for the quarter of US$591.9-million, exceeding Mr. Nagle’s US$590.4-million estimate as well as the consensus projection of US$570.4-million. Adjusted earnings per share of US$2.38 also topped forecasts (US$1.96 and US$2.16, respectively).
“FNV reiterated 2026 GEOs guidance of 510,000 – 570,000 GEOs (NBCM: 557,000 GEOs; was 547,000 GEOs excl. Cobre Panamá at FNV price deck) with 88 per cent from precious metal assets and 12% from diversified assets,” the analyst noted. “2026 guidance assumes an increase in precious metal GEOs driven by the first full year of contribution from Côté Gold, Porcupine and Valentine Gold, the continued ramp-up of Salares Norte and Greenstone, and the recent acquisitions of the Casa Berardi stream and i-80 royalty. Guidance does not assume any contributions from Cobre Panamá.”
Also touting the company’s “strong net cash position despite recent acquisitions,” Mr. Nagle raised his target for its shares to $420 from $410. The average on the Street is $420.51.
TD Cowen analyst Graham Ryding thinks Power Corp. of Canada’s (POW-T) fundamentals “look strong,” however he’s concerned they are already “priced-in” to its shares following recent gains, prompting him to lower his recommendation to “hold” from “buy” previously.
“Earnings growth from core operating companies is evident,” he said. “The alternative asset manager continues to scale. Capital returns are healthy (dividend increases and buybacks). We have increased our target price (rolling forward estimates and higher multiple). These positives appear priced-in (P/E is 3.1 times higher than the last-five-year average). The total return potential suggests a Hold rating at this time.”
While he thinks Power Corp. “represents a solid capital return investment (dividend growth and buybacks),” Mr. Ryding thinks its valuation upside “may be limited.” However, he raised his target to $84 from $74 due to rolling forward estimates and a higher P/E multiple. The average is $77.86.
“We view Power Corp. as a solid large cap defensive name with an attractive dividend yield. We are constructive on the core operating companies (Great-West and IGM). Momentum remains intact for the alternatives AUM platform. We expect buybacks to persist. Current valuation appears fair,” he concluded.
Elsewhere, others making adjustments include:
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski to $86 from $73 with an “outperform” rating.
“POW shares currently trade at a 19-per-cent discount to NAV with an attractive 3-per-cent dividend yield,” said Mr. Dziarski. “With $1.7-billion of cash available (we estimate $1-billion is excess), POW retains optionality to continue its healthy pace of stock buybacks and re-deploy into growth areas of the business like we saw this quarter with the Sagard funding round. We are maintaining our Outperform rating and increasing our price target to $86/share (from $73) primarily reflecting higher price targets for GWO and IGM.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young to $87 from $81 with a “buy” rating.
“Adjusted EPS was in line with us and consensus. Relative to us, the contributions from GWO and IGM beat (was expected), while its investment platforms and GBL missed. Also, corporate expenses and the drag from consolidation effects were lower quarter-over-quarter. Overall, no changes to our views,” said Mr. Young.
* Scotia’s Phil Hardie to $90 from $79 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“Our investment thesis related to POW remains intact with ‘all systems go’ with earnings momentum and strong return of capital expected to continue,” said Mr. Hardie. “Despite the strong run in the stock over the past year, we think valuation remains attractive and see further potential upside ahead.
“We think POW offers an attractive combination of value, resilience, and healthy dividend yield and that over time it will be recognized as a quality earnings compounder.”
* BMO’s Tom MacKinnon to $80 from $79 with a “market perform” rating
CIBC World Markets analyst Paul Holden expects Canadian banks to deliver a “strong set of earnings, predominantly based on capital markets activity.”
But he isn’t sure whether that will be enough to lead stocks to trade higher, given the “credit outlook is incrementally worse” as well as “extended” valuations across the sector.
“We expect another strong capital markets quarter based on elevated trading volumes and strong investment banking revenue based on deal activity,” said Mr. Holden. “However, we are getting more cautious on credit losses given the weakness in Canadian unemployment, a soft housing market in the GTA, and industry credit metrics. Loan growth is expected to remain muted and NIM is likely to be less of a tailwind this quarter. ROE expansion remains a key theme but perhaps will no longer be the dominant theme given a shifting credit outlook. We would not be surprised to see the banks report EPS beats again this quarter, but perhaps like the U.S. banks, capital markets-driven beats will no longer be good enough to drive the stocks higher.”
“Key model changes are: 1) higher capital markets revenue for the quarter, but no change to capital markets revenue forecasts thereafter; and 2) higher impaired PCLs for the quarter and each quarter through the end of F2027. The net impact varies bank-to-bank, but on average our FQ2 EPS estimates increase slightly while our F2026 and F2027 estimates decrease slightly.”
In a report released Thursday, Mr. Holden downgraded National Bank of Canada (NA-T) to a “neutral” rating, leading Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) as his lone stock with an “outperformer” recommendation.
“We upgraded NA roughly three months ago and do not like changing our ratings this quickly,” said Mr. Holden. “However, the stock is up 20 per cent in the past three months, is now trading at the highest multiple in the group (9-per-cent premium on F2027 consensus), and F2028 consensus estimates are giving full credit for ROE expansion. While we expect NA to print a strong FQ2 result, we find it hard to argue for further multiple expansion and also hard to see where consensus might be too low for next year.
“BMO is our top pick. We remain positive on BMO as there is still upside potential to consensus estimates relative to its 15-per-cent ROE target. With the recovery in U.S. commercial loan growth, there is also a possibility that U.S. balance sheet growth comes in higher than expected. We also think the relative skew to the U.S. can help with impaired PCLs in the near term. BMO is trading at a 5-per-cent discount to the group average P/E, and we believe it is still relatively under-owned. A strong quarter that demonstrates continued progress towards ROE targets should help the stock."
Mr. Holden made these target adjustments:
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “outperformer”) to $226 from $211. The average is $210.17.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “neutral”) to $116 from $109. Average: $108.96.
- National Bank of Canada (NA-T, “neutral”) to $209 from $196. Average: $194.32.
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “neutral”) to $258 from $242. Average: $255.05.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T, “neutral”) to $151 from $142. Average: $144.75.
In a client report titled Still more wood to chop before it gets easier, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Bart Dziarski further reduced his earnings and booking value per share forecasts for Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) “factoring in lower growth and higher credit losses” following the release of the lender’s first-quarter results.
“Valuation should remain capped with liquidity constrained until H2/26, growth constrained near term, and GSY working through remediating issues in the LendCare portfolio,” he said.
Goeasy shares fell 5.1 per cent on Wednesday after it reported a quarterly adjusted earnings per share loss of $1.90, missing the estimates of Mr. Dziarski and the Street (losses of $1.40 and $1.32, respectively).
“Material weakness in internal controls persists,” the analyst said. “GSY provided a path toward remediating internal control deficiencies: i) 75 per cent through 1st and 2nd line of defence ii) internal audit then completes a review iii) external auditors then review and finally iv) GSY has hired a Big-4 consulting firm to review internal controls holistically. GSY expects to implement and test control improvements by end of 2026. Until then, given there is a reasonable probability that material misstatements to the financials may occur, we maintain our cautious stance.
“Guidance maintained for 2026; Q2/26 guidance provided: i) Gross consumer loans of $4.9-$5.1-billion at Q2/26 (implying down 7 per cent quarter-over-quarter at the mid- point) with growth resuming in H2/26; ii) 27-28.5-per-cent yield on consumer loans in Q2/26 (vs 27.9 per cent in Q1/26) with improvement throughout 2026; iii) 16.0-17.5-per-cent net charge-offs in Q2/26 (vs 17.8 per cent in Q1/26) with improvement throughout 2026.”
With the reductions to his projections, Mr. Dziarski cut his target for Goeasy shares to $30 from $33, keeping an “underperform” rating. The average is $38.95.
“We are taking a more conservative view of NCOs [net charge-offs] given LendCare portfolio is still being remediated and macroeconomic indicators are deteriorating,” he said. “Our 2026 NCO estimate of 17 per cent is above management’s 15-per-cent outlook and we assume modest improvement in 2027. We also reduce our gross consumer loan receivable balance in-line with management’s Q2/26 guidance and assume minimal growth thereafter. We estimate GSY will be unprofitable in 2026 resulting in BVPS declining to $45 and we expect modest profitability in 2027.”
“In our view, management’s 3-step plan of acting decisively, investing in scalable and resilient growth, and delivering disciplined high-performance is unlikely to take hold until 2028+ which should constrain growth in 2026 & 2027 and, ultimately, a valuation re-rating.”
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* National Bank’s Jaeme Gloyn to $34 from $38 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Our initial view of the Q1 results tilted negative given: i) deterioration in credit metrics (including higher early stage delinquencies and weaker easyfinancial performance); ii) higher leverage, and iii) guidance for faster decline in the loan book,” said Mr. Gloyn. “While the conference call provided more optimistic funding commentary, we believe credit risk remains elevated.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $38 from $47 with a “buy” rating.
“1Q results met all three guidance metrics (loan book, revenue yield, NCO), providing incremental validation of the turnaround plan. However, underlying credit trends bear monitoring. LendCare’s NCO rate remains elevated at 26.4 per cent, easyfinancial’s unsecured NCO deteriorated 170 basis points sequentially to 13.8 per cent and ACL continued to climb to 10.1 per cent on weaker macro assumptions. 2Q loan book guidance of $4.9–5.1-billion implies further meaningful contraction. We lowered our estimates,” said Mr. Ho.
* TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding to $32 from $36 with a “hold” rating.
“The outlook remains highly fluid with respect to earnings visibility and liquidity/funding. We are assuming portfolio growth resumes in 2H/26, LendCare related delinquencies/charge offs gradually improve through 2027, and funding is secured in Q3/26 to support easyfinancial growth. We will be looking for evidence of improving delinquencies/charge offs, secure funding, and expense management,” said Mr. Ryding.
* ATB Cormark’s Jeff Fenwick to $35 from $42 with a “sector perform” rating
“Q1 results and conference call commentary have us further trimming our forecast and expectations for GSY. Liquidity is being prioritized in the near-term, positioning the balance sheet to weather current headwinds, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, with a return to profitability likely not to occur until for several quarters,” said Mr. Fenwick.
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland to $42 from $46.50 with a “market perform” rating.
“While we have seen some improvement in credit results, we remain cautious until a longer trend develops,” said Mr. Boland.
Declaring “there is nothing broken in the flywheel,” Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman recommends investors add shares of Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T) in the wake of Wednesday’s selloff, which he thinks “seems massively overdone” while also acknowledging “the payoff may be further dated.”
Shares of the Winnipeg-based operator of non-franchised collision repair centres dropped 12 per cent after it reported revenue of $996.7-million, broadly in line with the consensus estimate of $991.1-million. However, same-store sales for the quarter of 1.7 per cent fell under the 2.1-per-cent expectation on the Street and “below the long-term growth algo of 3-5 per cent,” raising investor concern.
“On the call, management noted that a large part of the delta was due to lower total cost of repair (TCOR), which in the long term is expected to contribute 3-4 per cent to SSSG,” said Mr. Goldman. “Adding that back, we believe SSS would have been above the high end of the target range. Aging fleet is keeping total loss rates elevated whereas new cars are more likely to be repaired and consume more OE parts. But, as we discussed in our recent auto industry upgrade, we expect NA SAAR [North American seasonally adjusted annual rate] to be resilient in the 16 million range this year, following several years in the less than 15-million range, which should act as a gravitational pull on fleet age and total loss rates. Higher new vehicle prices should also lift used prices and further raise the threshold for total loss. Conversely, we think the company will hit its 14-per-cent margin target ahead of schedule in the 2H.”
Mr. Goldman made “nominal” adjustments to his estimates for Boyd, including a forecast of 2.6-per-cent same-store sales through his forecast horizon, noting it is the “same print as 1Q excluding weather.
“Is that our expectation? No. Is that what recent industry KPIs suggest (total loss rates, fleet age, used prices, insurance premiums)? No. Is that what peer readthroughs indicate (aftermarket parts, coatings co’s)? No. But, it’s what we have a mark on; and we would rather err on the side of caution, positioning for upside surprises in a story that has become more about managing expectations than managing operations, which have always been a core competency,” he said.
Keeping a “sector outperform” rating for Boyd shares, Mr. Goldman reduced his target to $231 from $239. The average is $254.70.
Shares are trading at 7.3 times EV/EBITDA and 9.7-per-cent FCF yield on our 2027 estimates,” he said. “BYD shares have traded increasingly around sentiment more than fundamentals in recent years – shares hit $127 in June 2022 – and probably more so now that it has a U.S. investor base. But, it’s hard not to make BYD our top pick given the valuation and as we do not see anything structurally changed in the industry. Cars have a definite life with a built-in maintenance spend in the form of depreciation. TCOR should continue to move up in line with vehicle complexity and general inflation. Margins expand with SSS leverage and internal initiatives.”
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $240 from $260 with a “buy” rating.
“Our investment thesis is based on: (1) a quality compounder with a history of SSSG and strong ROIC; (2) a disciplined M&A track record in a fragmented US$50-billion industry; (3) scale advantages as the second-largest player in North America; and (4) upside from supply-chain initiatives and greenfield and brownfield expansion,” said Mr. Ho.
* TD Cowen’s Derek Lessard to $190 from $270 with a “buy” rating.
“We struggle to reconcile investor reactions: the stock is being punished for modest SSSG [same-store sales growth] - impacted by well-telegraphed winter storms - while overlooking 200 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion from solid execution. This follows a 30-per-cent post-Q4 share selloff. While we’ve trimmed our multiple to reflect sentiment, we remain confident BYD can deliver near double-digit EBITDA growth over our forecast horizon,” said Mr. Lessard.
* ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray to $245 from $285 with an “outperform” rating.
“While BYD will need to demonstrate consistent performance, we see an asymmetric risk/reward at current levels, particularly given the improving margin profile, acquisition opportunity set and underlying same-store trends,” said Mr. Murray.
* Stifel’s Daryl Young to $205 from $255 with a “buy” rating.
“The stock reaction was severe, down 12 per cent, which we view as disproportionate to the results and modest estimate revisions, but we think there is a broader de-rating happening for Boyd as investors factor in the myriad of medium-and long-term industry complexities/uncertainties around ADAS and total write-offs,” said Mr. Young.
In other analyst actions:
* Seeing “smoother sailing into Q2,” which he thinks “looks like clearer skies,” Scotia’s John Zamparo upgraded AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. (AGTF-T) to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” with a $20 target, down from $21 and under the $24.57 average, seeing an “attractive” valuation.
“We upgrade AGT to Sector Outperform with a $20 target price, reflecting 1) a less severe impact from the war than expected, removing a potentially negative Q2 catalyst; 2) what we view as a likely trough valuation; and 3) increased conviction in 2027E EPS,” said Mr. Zamparo. “[Wednesday’s] print was relatively uneventful, which we view positively. More importantly, Q2 is seemingly unimpacted by the war and lost earnings from Q1 could trickle into this quarter, with minimal full-year impact. We remain mindful of some risks, including lack of a recent public track record, complex financial reporting, and potential volatility from commodities/weather. However, in our view, at 10 times our F27 EPS (and 11.2 times next 12 months), the stock presents an attractive entry point. Our target price is based on 13 times F27 EPS (down from 13.5 times previously), reflecting a more conservative stance on slightly higher earnings forecasts.”
* With its valuation moving closer to U.S. peers following a 75-per-cent jump in share price thus far in 2026, BMO’s John Gibson downgraded Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) to “market perform from “outperform” while raising his target to $55 from $52. The average is $48.57.
“Bird reported in-line Q1/26 results, while EBITDA margin guidance remains intact (8 per cent in 2027 vs. 6.5 per cent in 2025),” said Mr. Gibson. “The stock has been on a tear to start the year (up 75 per cent year-to-date), while the valuation is moving closer to U.S. peers.
“Given the strong outlook for backlog and margin growth, we continue to view the story in a favorable light, although upside could be moderated given recent gains.”
* Conversely, Mr. Gibson upgraded Mattr Corp. (MATR-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with a $12 target, up from $8, touting an improved 2026 outlook following “strong” first-quarter results. The average is $10.60.
“MATR delivered stronger Q1/26 results, while management also pointed to an improving outlook for 2026, driven in part by a large flexpipe order expected to be delivered in 2H/26,” he said. “MATR has gone through some growing pains over the last few years, while its multiple remains at compressed levels.
”Given the improved outlook and inexpensive valuation, we are upgrading the shares."
* Following weaker-than-expected first-quarter results, Raymond James’ Stephen Boland downgraded Winnipeg-based Pollard Banknote Ltd. (PBL-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” previously, seeing both “internal and external factors impacting margins.” His target for Pollard shares dropped to $21.50 from $29, well below the $32.50 average.
“Pollard operates within an oligopolistic industry characterized by high barriers to entry and long-standing customer relationships. However, this was a disappointing quarter, and we expect the stock to remain under pressure until the company can demonstrate sustainable margin improvement and less volatile EBITDA. This may take a few quarters,” said Mr. Boland.
* In response to “light” first-quarter results that highlighted leverage is “weighing” on organic growth, ATB Cormark’s Sairam Srinivas downgraded Slate Grocery REIT (SGR.U-T, SGR.UN-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a US$12 target, down from US$13.50 and below the US$13.04 average.
“We like SGR’s grocery-backed defensive cashflow model. While SGR’s organic growth outlook remains positive, higher finance costs have been offsetting some of those gains resulting in an elevated payout ratio which, combined with the REIT’s leverage position, has been weighing on the stock. As interest rates remain elevated, we expect these headwinds to persist. Thus while we maintain our NAV, we are moving our target for SGR to $12.00 (based on a 10-per-cent discount to NAV, in line with the U.S. peers) from $13.50 and our rating to Sector Perform from Outperform,” he explained.
* Acumen Capital’s Trevor Reynolds raised his AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T) to $27 from $25 with a “speculative buy” rating. The average is $21.33.
“Overall, management is focused on the things they can control in the near term as headwinds persist driven by consumer uncertainty, high vehicle costs, and elevated fuel prices. Management continues to focus on restoring operational performance following the cost out strategy while maintaining a lean operating structure. Notably, management still expects GPU’s to continue to normalize through 2026, while the true run rate of the business is expected to materialize in 2027,” said Mr. Reynolds.
* Raymond James’ Luke Davis raised his Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-T) target to $8.50 from $8 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $8.01.
“Birchcliff came out swinging with a solid first quarter print, underpinned by outperformance on nearly every cost line item. Management left production and capital guidance unchanged, while a higher liquids tape provided a nice uplift to their outlook for cash generation and resulting debt paydown. In our view, the company’s market diversification, including liquids exposure to the West coast, and strong operational execution set up for a better back half than we previously modeled, with costs expected to improve further as facility utilization ramps - increasing the likelihood for an FID at Elmworth by year-end. Despite a high weighting to natural gas in a heavily oil-focused tape, the print underscored management’s execution capability and reinforces our constructive view on the stock,” said Mr. Davis.
* Scotia’s Ben Isaacson raised his target for shares of Chemtrade Logistics Income Trust (CHE.UN-T) to $19 from $17 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $20.40.
“We exit Q1 results more positive on CHE’s outlook and share price upside. First, we believe the set-up for CHE has improved since the Iran war started. Why: higher sulphur prices are slightly more positive than negative; caustic is benefiting from global chlor-alkali dislocation; the Iran war has also tightened the chlor-vinyl chain. However, there are also partial offsets: freight/logistics inflation; North Van permitting risk - although, the risk doesn’t seem high; geopolitical benefits can reverse quickly - although, we’ve argued for structural improvements in other Hormuz-impacted chemicals. Second, we have raised ‘27E EBITDA to $525-million, which reflects 5-per-cent growth year-over-year, and assumes some price/margin moderation on Hormuz normalization next year. This compares to the Street’s $534-million - so perhaps there’s further upside. Third, on capital allocation, CHE doesn’t see M&A this year, though ‘27/28 is possible in WS. Rather, leverage (2.5 times vs. 2.3 times quarter-over-quarter) reduction is prioritized, as well as acquisition integration. Finally, on valuation, we have raised our multiple to 6.5 times ‘27 estimated EBITDA, on more asymmetric commodity price risk to the upside,” said Mr. Isaacson.
* Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil cut his Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T) target to $3,800 from $3,900 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: RBC’s Paul Treiber to $4,500 from $4,800 with an “outperform” rating and TD’s David Kwan to $4,200 from $4,100 with a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $4,126.67.
“While the market expects the software industry to undergo major shifts driven by agentic AI, we view CSU as less exposed to potential disruption than horizontal software companies. The company has started 2026 with robust capital deployment, and its M&A pipeline remains healthy even if private market valuations have not moved as much as in public markets. We are looking forward to the AGM on May 15 for further clarity on CSU’s new PEMS strategy, the AI strategy and other capital-allocation insights,” said Mr. Dubreuil.
* Stifel’s Martin Landry raised his Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFG-CN) target to $2.30 from $2.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $2.48.
“Happy Belly Food Group reported Q1/26 earnings which were slightly better than our expectations,” said Mr. Landry. “Q1/26 EBITDA came in at a loss of $0.2-million, slightly worse than last year’s gain of $0.1-million, but above our expectations of a loss of $0.4-million. We expect EBITDA to be positive throughout the remainder of the year. System sales reached $19.3-million, up 80 per cent year-over-year, and came in line with our expectations of $19.2-million. Recently, HBFG announced the acquisition of Ghost Taco, a fast-casual mexican cuisine restaurant with six locations. We view the deal positively and consistent with management’s strategy. HBFG is on track to reach 100 restaurants in June, with the first U.S. store opening scheduled in July. In our view, HBFG is one of the fastest growth stories in the small-cap consumer sector.”
* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny raised his target for Hydro One Ltd. (H-T) to $56 from $55 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Ben Pham to $58 from $55 with a “market perform” rating, Scotia’s Robert Hope to $58 from $53 with a “sector perform” rating and TD’s John Mould to $58 from $57 with a “hold” rating. The average is $58.20.
“.Hydro One reported Q1/26 EPS of $0.65/sh, a penny ahead of expectations, and announced a 6-per-cent dividend increase, which was expected. Management provided incremental detail on its upcoming rate application, which is expected to be filed in Q3/26, alongside additional colour on a number of longer-dated transmission projects. The update also offered greater clarity on the timing of broadband investments beginning to enter rate base. We modestly increase our estimates to reflect higher broadband-related capex and incremental project growth. Our 2027 EPS estimate is now toward the upper end of management’s guidance range. We continue to believe Hydro One deserves a premium to peers given its (1) visible long-term growth outlook with transmission upside, (2) limited near-term regulatory risk, and (3) strong balance sheet,” said Mr. Hope.”
* National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine increased his Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T) target to $59, exceeding the $56.04 average, from $56, keeping an “outperform” rating, while TD’s Mario Mendonca cut his target to $58 from $59 with a “buy” rating
“Results were mixed, with Asia and U.S. delivering good growth, offset by earnings declines in Canada and GWAM. Earnings quality was weak, reflecting ALDA and public markets charges. Asia delivered good new business CSM, WM EBITDA margins improved 60 basis points year-over-year, and MFC continued to buy back stock - key drivers of the 18-per-cent ROE target. New business trends recovered in Asia, but GWAM outflows remained weak,” said Mr. Dechaine.
* CIBC’s Erin Kyle initiated coverage of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T) with an “outperformer” rating and $57 target, exceeding the $54.79 average on the Street.
“We view MDA Space as a compelling pure-play on the rapidly expanding space economy. Our investment thesis rests on three core pillars: the company’s unique exposure to multiple secular tailwinds driving the space boom; its status as a scaled, well-capitalized and profitable pure-play amid an industry of mostly unprofitable peers; and a valuation that is undemanding relative to both A&D peers and space-sector peers. Key near-term catalysts are tied to funded programs, reinforcing our confidence in the company’s trajectory,” the analyst said.
* With a first-quarter beat, ATB Cormark’s Tim Monachello raised his North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA-T) target by $3 to $24 with a “sector perform” rating, while BMO’s John Gibson moved his target to $22 from $21 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $26.02.
“Encouraged by a Q1/26 EBITDA beat, improving Canadian margins, a derisked 2026 outlook, and a catalyst-rich pipeline across core and emerging markets, we are raising our price target from $21.00 to $24.00. We maintain our Sector Perform rating as we believe enduring longer-term upside requires more tangible evidence of structural deleveraging and margin enhancement to improve NOA’s FCF conversion,” said Mr. Monachello.
* RBC’s Pammi Bir moved his SmartCentres REIT (SRU.UN-T) target to $31 from $30 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $30.63.
“Despite a step back in our earnings outlook, SRU’s recent leasing strides should render more durable, higher value cash flows. Progress on backfilling the former Toys R Us locations speaks to the quality of its portfolio and resilient demand, while the new Penguin arrangements mark incremental steps forward in simplifying the business. As well, a growing appetite for new space is playing into SRU’s development strengths. Combined with recent transactions that are supportive of lower cap rates for defensive retail, we reiterate Outperform,” said Mr. Bir.
* National Bank’s Don DeMarco raised his Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG-T) target to $101 from $98 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $95.
“[First-quarter] financials mixed and higher-than-expected costs, yet FCF harvesting continues with an elevated FCF yield, cash accretion and announced enhanced return of capital program, including dividend increase and share buybacks a step change higher,” said Mr. DeMarco