Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While Citi analyst Michael Ward see Magna International Inc. (MGA-N, MG-T) as “fairly valued at current trading levels given the current outlook,” he thinks “longer-term demographics should support higher demand in key global markets and new business wind could provide revenue upside.”
“The Supplier Group has been adversely affected by uneven production since Covid but shrugged off tariff-related volatility & cutbacks in BEV [battery electric vehicle] production in 2025 to outperform,” he said. “More consistent schedules, inventory addition and commercial recoveries should offset lower global volumes in first half of the year, producing improved Group performance in 2026. We expect Magna to benefit from positive demand trends in North America, new business wins, cost reduction efforts, and commercial recoveries.”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Ward updated his forecast for the Aurora, Ont.-based auto parts manufacturer to account for its first-quarter financial reports, which saw revenue rise 3 per cent year-over-year and EBITDA gain 9.3 per cent. Earnings per share of US$1.38, excluding unusual items, was a gain of 60 US cents from fiscal 2025 and topped both the analyst’s 99-US-cent projection and the consensus forecast of US$1.01.
“The midpoint of EBIT guidance suggests EBIT margin of 6.3 PER CENT, MGA’s best performance since 2021,” said Mr. Ward. “Higher industry volume, cost reduction, and commercial recoveries should be positives in 2026 and into 2027-28. We expect a higher EBITDA margin in 2026, partly the benefit of commercial recoveries, and look for relatively flat performance in 2027-28. We look for EPS of $6.75 in 2026, in line with FactSet consensus, and we expect earnings of $7.10 in 2027 and $7.70 in 2028.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for Magna shares, he raised his target to US$75 from US$58 to “reflect reduced BEV and geo-political concerns.” The average target on the Street is US$61.02, according to LSEG data.
“We believe Magna is viewed as one of the top suppliers by global vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, but historically industry perception has not translated to market valuation,” he explained. “MGA was valued at an average of 5.1 times on an EV/EBITDA basis in 2015-19, the low end of the Supplier Comp Group and the Group has traded at 8.0-12 times on P/E.”
Raymond James analyst Frederic Bastien raised his targets for a quartet of companies in his Infrastructure & Construction coverage group on Thursday.
“With fresh commitments across defence, mining, energy, and AI‑related infrastructure, combined with constructive takeaways from last week’s 48 Hours in Edmonton industrial tour, we believe the group has unusually strong visibility into the next 12–18 months of activity,“ he said. ”In light of this improved outlook, we are comfortable rolling our valuation frameworks forward to 2027 for all four stocks."
Mr. Bastien’s changes are:
* Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T, “outperform”) to $98 from $77. The average is $83.67.
Analyst: “BDGI quickly dug out from under the skepticism that followed its 4Q25 print, with new truck builds ramping higher amid accelerating demand in 1Q26 and growth investments weighing less on profitability than expected. We see this improving performance as proof that Badger’s manufacturing and commercial strategies are delivering intended results. On the manufacturing side, the Red Deer plant’s sharpened focus on building hydrovacs right the first time is driving efficiencies that are helping offset prevailing tariff and inflationary cost pressures. Commercially, management’s decision to open additional branches in core markets is enhancing Badger’s ability to serve Quanta Services and other large national accounts. With the rapid buildout of AI infrastructure and a concurrent electrification push across the Southeast, Midwest, and West Coast, there is an urgent need to expand base power load capacity across the energy grid. We believe this plays to BDGI’s advantage.”
* Black Diamond Group Ltd. (BDI-T, “outperform”) to $23 from $20. Average: $20.25.
Analyst: “We remain constructive on Black Diamond Group, mindful of the optionality residing within its three businesses. While we can’t point to any splashy nation-building projects with boots on the ground yet, baseline activity levels are improving for Workforce Solutions (WFS). There’s good momentum in the precious metals space, with Black Diamond mobilizing excess room capacity to gold and silver projects across the country and as far east as Newfoundland. Modular Space Solutions (MMS) utilization in Canada is set to improve as the deployment of units on Dow’s Path2Zero project gradually increases from the current 178 to over 800 at the peak of construction. We are also confident the lower 48 will be a major source of organic growth forMSS, with big infrastructure and data center projects moving ahead on the back of reduced regulation, lower taxes, and an onshoring manufacturing push. For LodgeLink, the transition from a monolithic stack to a microservices architecture has improved both functionality and scalability of the platform, per the 52-per-cent increase in Total Trade Value reported in 1Q26.“
* Dexterra Group Inc. (DXT-T, “outperform”) to $18.50 from $16. Average: $16.13.
Analyst: “In our view, DXT is well positioned to capture renewed demand for camp assets, outsourcing, and facilities management services amid rising investment across the resources, defense, and large-scale infrastructure sectors. Just as importantly, last year’s acquisition of PVC is transforming the Support Services segment, adding a distributed operating model that delivers facilities management services across all 50 U.S. states and serves several Fortune 500 clients. Encouragingly, select customers have already expressed interest in expanding their scope with PVC now that it can leverage Dexterra’s self-perform capabilities. On theAsset-Based Services (ABS)side, management has rationalized Right Choice’s operating footprint across the Montney and Duvernay regions, consolidating active assets while redeploying equipment to markets experiencing stronger demand. A portion of DXT’s 2,000-bed excess capacity has already been deployed to a U.S. data centre project, with potential to expand into additional opportunities. This should support utilization rates and open new customer channels while its core Canadian markets await the ramp-up of major nation-building projects.“
* Russel Metals Inc. (RUS-T, “outperform”) to $70 from $65. Average: $59.29.
Analyst: “We believe RUS is well-positioned to capitalize on the groundwork laid over the past three years. With Samuel and Tampa Bay Steel integrated into its network, a clear improvement playbook for the seven new Kloeckner branches, and $1.8-billion of value-add investments in place, we believe RUS has the pieces needed to translate a strengthening steel market into meaningful earnings growth. RUS also stands out with a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.5 times and approximately $500-million of available liquidity. This financial capacity yields management the flexibility to pursue additional bolt-on acquisitions, and invest in value-add initiatives such as those highlighted during our 48 Hours Industrial Tour. Included is the consolidation of two Prince George locations, a crane capacity expansion in Nanaimo, and a full-blown repositioning of the Winnipeg plant, and phased expansion of the expansive Nisku processing facility.”
Stifel analyst Greg MacDonald warns the rapid, recent appreciation in share price enjoyed by MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T) is likely to slow, but he remains bullish on its longer-term prospects.
“Space stocks have been on a strong run in the past month and MDA has participated (up 63 per cebnt vs TSX at up 3 per cent),” he said. “Given the pace and magnitude of the moves, it stands to reason that the stock may take a pause while catalysts catch up. Nonetheless, we are adjusting our target in anticipation of both military and commercial mega-constellation opportunities that could be announced in 2H26.
“MDA shares have rallied alongside US space names. There has been a surge in investor attention across the space sector over the last month lifting names like Rocket Labs (NASDAQ: RKLB, up 88 per cent), AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS, up 85 per cent), Firefly (NASDAQ: FLY, up 44 per cent), and MDA (NYSE/TSX: MDA, up per cent/up 63 per cent). Recall MDA, Canada’s space prime completed its own US initial public offering in March 2026, giving it direct access to that same U.S. investor pool. We see this MDA’s US listing as a key reason the stock has rallied alongside leading U.S. space names over the past month. We expect MDA to maintain its U.S. investor focus given the contract opportunities.
Mr. MacDonald points recent defence industry wins, which he called “supportive,” while also emphasizing “Canada’s DND makes ‘sovereign maneuver’ a national requirement.”
“NASA placed its first two LTV Phase 1 orders under a US$4.6-billion lunar utility vehicle (LUV) program: US$219-million (Astrolab) and US$220-million (Lunar Outpost),” he explained. “Additional awards are anticipated with follow-on orders. MDA is the robotics partner on the Lunar Outpost team and the only non-U.S. partner in NASA’s first Moon Base awards; its share is likely modest, but the selection is meaningful. With MDA also pursuing Canada’s $1.2-billion sovereign LUV program, the win reinforces our view that MDA is the front-runner for that contract. Secondly, prime contractor BAE Systems selected MDA to build the antennas and control electronics for the Resilient Missile Warning & Tracking satellites under the US$1.2B U.S. Space Force/SSC Epoch 2 constellation (10 satellites, FY29 delivery). MDA’s undisclosed portion is already in 1Q26 backlog and will convert to revenue in FY27. This win reinforces MDA’s standing as a leading space company with the mission-critical capabilities governments increasingly want.
“‘Sovereign maneuver’ is a country’s ability to detect and respond to space threats i.e., moving a satellite out of danger without having to rely on another nation. MDA has already announced its maneuverable spacecraft, MIDNIGHT built for high-reliability rendezvous and proximity operations to detect, counter and deter threats to space assets, directly filling this capability gap. MIDNIGHT makes MDA the only Canadian company, and one of a few global companies with a space-control platform able to meet this requirement. We see MIDNIGHT as a significant commercial opportunity for MDA.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for MDA shares, Mr. MacDonald hiked his target to $70 from $57. The average is currently $59.78.
“Based on 2027 estimates, the stock trades at 4 times sales and 21 times EBITDA, with comparables at 4-10xtimes and 20-40 times, respectively,” he added. “Our estimates are not materially different from consensus, however we believe consensus is conservative relative to the growing defence opportunity as referenced by the $40-billion pipeline and contract opportunities.”
Expecting “solid” first-quarter fiscal 2027 results “against the backdrop of global macro uncertainty, rising energy prices, cautious consumer spending and a spring that never showed up,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel thinks Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T) should be view as a “core holding” by investors heading into the release of its earnings report on June 11.
“Expecting healthy and stable performance from the core Canadian business, with cash dividends from LatAm boosting DOL’s ability to invest simultaneously across Mexico, LatAm and Australia,” she said.
“Dollarama has consistently proven extremely agile at adapting to changing operating conditions and capturing share of consumer wallets across cycles. Reiterating our view that while near-term consolidated results will be moderated by investments in the recently-acquired Australian business, in our view investors should remain focused on the core Canadian business.”
Ms. Nattel is now projecting quarterly earnings per share of 99 cents, matching the Street’s expectation and a gain of 4 per cent year-over-year. He sees domestic EBITDA growing 7.6 per cent during the period.
“FQ1E incorporates 15 new stores in Canada (up 4 per cent year-over-year) and same-store sales up 3.5 per cent, at the mid-point of F27 guidance 3-4 per cent,” she added. “Extensive onshore inventory, pricing agility should help offset potential gross margins headwinds of higher freight and sourcing costs. On a consolidated basis, expectation of modest EBITDA deleverage reflects different margin structure at Dollarama Australia.
“With channel checks/RBC proprietary card data indicative of resilient but cautious consumer spending, Dollarama’s deep value positioning should continue to appeal to a broad base of consumers, in our view a key relative advantage sustaining both relative earnings growth and valuation.”
Ms. Nattel reiterated an “outperform” rating and $223 target for Dollarama shares.
“In our view, share price decline 10 per cent since pre-Q4 release in midMarch overdone, view current share price/valuation as compelling entry price,” she said. “Reiterating constructive outlook/OP rating, DOL a secular winner as value-seeking behaviour likely sustains gains in share of wallet. PT $223 unchanged. Target multiple 22 times F28E EBITDA from Canada higher than NTM [next 12-month] valuation 18 times, incorporates Australia and Mexico optionality as we do not assign value to either. Sector-leading growth trajectory, strong FCF, consistent return of capital and multi-geography long-term growth platform are supportive of premium valuation, and reinforce our view that DOL remains a best idea and core holding.”
Ventum Capital Markets analyst Rob Goff thinks “the stars are aligning” for Maritime Launch Services Inc. (MAXQ-NE) “as it positions Spaceport Nova Scotia as Canada’s sovereign launch hub, offering rare orbital access, scalable infrastructure, and an asset-light business model at a time of increasingly constrained secure launch capacity globally.”
“Backed by government support, strategic industry partners, and intensifying geopolitical demand, we believe MLS is emerging as a differentiated first mover in the North American launch ecosystem,” he added.
In a client report released late Wednesday, Mr. Goff initiated coverage of the Halifax-based company with a “buy” rating, emphasizing it is the “solution” to a “bottleneck” in launch capacity across the space industry and touting its “unmatched location [and] unmatched moat.”
“As secure launch access tightens across the space industry, particularly for small launch providers, we believe Spaceport Nova Scotia is well positioned to benefit as governments and commercial operators seek alternatives to larger, government-controlled or vertically integrated spaceports, while facing rising prices and wait lists that can push five years,” he said. “MLS is further supported by Canada’s participation in NATO STARLIFT and the government’s Launch the North initiative
“Located near Canso, Nova Scotia, MLS offers a rare 45–98-degree inclination range, open Atlantic launch corridors that provide geopolitical and safety advantages (particularly for European and South Korean launchers), strong logistics infrastructure, and maritime conditions that support 150+ annual launch days."
Seeing government and commercial sponsorships validating demand and de-risking its timeline for expansion, Mr. Goff set a target of $1, exceeding the 97-cent average.
“We see long-term lease contracts over the next 3–9 months, sub-orbital launches exiting 2026, and orbital launches within 24 months, leading to a significant positive revaluation,“ he said. ”We also see TAM expansion and strategic moves beyond the initial four pads supporting more aggressive DCFs, as perpetual growth assumptions support a lower terminal FCF yield."
Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li said recent investor meetings with Maple Leaf Foods Inc.’s (MFI-T) management team reinforced its ”ability to achieve its outlook for 2026, as well as its ambitions for 2030."
“MFI has ample levers to drive mid-single-digit revenue growth on average (all organic), as well as approximately 2-times EBITDA growth, which should strengthen its FCF position and enhance shareholder returns (which we expect to grow in line with profitability),” he said.
“Management also clearly laid out the building blocks to achieve its 2030 ambition of $5-billion in revenue and $750-million in adjusted EBITDA. M&A optionality presents further upside from management’s stated targets, with a regional tuck-in deal likely as MFI looks to enhance its SKU base there. MFI continues to trade near its 10-year average of 9 times NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA despite the spin-off of its volatile pork complex operations. We believe consistent execution toward its financial objectives should result in further valuation improvement.”
In a client note, Mr. Li, who initiated coverage of the Mississauga-based company last week, said it is now “focused on capital returns” while acknowledging the potential gains from expansion south of the border through merger and acquisition activity.
“Following a heavy capex cycle, management reiterated its goal to continue returning capital to shareholders,” he said. “On average, revenue is expected to grow mid-single digits annually, with 2 times EBITDA growth. Dividends have grown in line with the growth of the business, and we believe this will continue. Given the tax-free nature of the Canada Packers (CPKR, TSX, not rated) spin-off and related short-term restrictions on buybacks (due to McCain Capital’s 40-per-cent ownership), management continues to assess further special dividends (similar to the $0.60/share declared in 4Q25) as a tool to return capital.
“M&A a likely avenue to bolster U.S. footprint. Given MFI’s strong presence in Canada (92-per-cent household penetration rate, 110 SKUs per grocery store on average), management believes acquisitions would make more sense in the US given its niche presence there. Any deal is likely to be a tuck-in, with MFI eyeing regional players with either strong protein brands or existing meat-processing facilities. Management also views near-term accretion as a critical component of any potential deal. Multiples for such assets tend to be in the 6–8 times EBITDA range, and MFI is already building relationships with potential partners to avoid an auction process. Management believes that with its existing relationships with the top 10 U.S. grocers and large foodservice players, as well as a national distribution network, it could quickly scale such regional tuck-ins to a national presence, while also enhancing its SKUs in the U.S. (currently at 15)."
The analyst reaffirmed his “buy” rating and $39 target. The average is $37.50
In other analyst actions:
* Believing its asset base and growth initiatives are not fully appreciated by the Street, Jefferies’ Sam Burwell upgraded Strathcona Resources Ltd. (SCR-T) to “buy” from “hold” and raised his target to $56 from $45. The average is $49.60.
* Mr. Burwell initiated coverage of Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH-T) with a “buy” rating and $14 target, predicting the expansion of its Leismer steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) asset in Alberta’s oil sands will drive near-term growth and its Corner project is likely to provide higher quality production by 2030. The average target is $11.74.
* In the wake of the close of its $69-million equity issuance, Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige lowered his Abaxx Technologies Inc. (ABXX-T) by $1 to $79.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $97.55.
“The original plan was for $50-million but due to strong demand, it was upsized and the full over-allotment exercised. We believe this deal meaningfully de-risks the balance sheet as there is clear runway for the company to ramp up its exchange and technology operations and, if necessary, even step up investments,” he said.
* Raymond James’ Steven Li lowered his target for Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSGX-Q, DSG-T) to US$108 from US$118 with an “outperform” rating, while CIBC’s Stephanie Price raised her target to US$118 from US$116 with an “outperformer” rating. The average is US$98.41.
“Fundamental set-up looks strong with improving organic growth into easier comps. Services this 1Q at up 9.4 per cent organic (exc. M&A, FX) — up sequentially from 8 per cent last quarter,“ said Mr. Li. ”This is despite trucking volumes still depressed in the quarter (negative 4-per-cent trucking volumes).M&A set-up sounded good, too, and we believe combined with the improving organic growth, could push adjusted EBITDA into a period of heightened growth (high-teens, this 1Q already adjusted EBITDA was up 20 per cent year-over-year). This level of EBITDA growth has compounding implications as over the last 10 years; DSGX has converted on average 84 per cent of its adjusted EBITDA into FCF like clockwork. Reiterate our Outperform/ACF pick."
* In response to its $19.9-million acquisition of Belgium-based specialty hearth manufacturer Be Fire SA, Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk moved his Street-high Decisive Dividend Corp. (DE-X) target to $9.50 from $9 with a “hold” rating. The average is $10.25.
“This acquisition is in line with our expectations and management’s inorganic growth strategy. We see compelling upside potential to Be Fire as a cyclical recovery in hearth demand is underway, aided by soaring energy prices in Europe, and there are potential synergies between it and DE’s two other hearth businesses. We peg pro forma leverage at 2.6 times (trailing 12 months), leaving room for some smaller tuck-in acquisitions,” he said.
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen raised his target for Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) shares to $142 from $130 with a “buy” rating (unchanged) following three days of European institutional meetings. The average is $124.80.