Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC’s Head of Global Energy Research Greg Pardy says recent institutional meetings with Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T) were “quite upbeat and pointed towards unmistakable operating/financial momentum across its portfolio.”
“Our constructive stance towards Cenovus reflects its capable leadership team, shareholder alignment, free cash flow generation, inventory depth and much improved execution,” he said in a client report released before the bell.
After the meetings in London with chief financial officer Kam Sandhar and vice-president of investor relations Patrick Read, Mr. Pardy expects the Calgary-based company’s investor open house in January of 2027 to “showcase refined operating synergies at Christina Lake following its $8.5-billion acquisition of MEG Energy in 2025.”
“In response to a question surrounding the potential sale of its conventional oil and natural gas business (where it is targeting liquids-rich opportunities), the company acknowledged that every asset has a price, but that it is comfortable with its current portfolio and sees no need for strategic changes,” he added.
“Cenovus emphasized that it has no near-term plans to increase its capital investment of $5.0-$5.3-billion (including $350-million of capitalized turnarounds) this year. Looking into 2027 on a preliminary basis, $5.0-$5.5-billion (including $3.5-$4.0-billion of sustaining capital) of spending is a good starting point but could change depending on a host of factors. Our 2026 production outlook for Cenovus of 972,700 boe/d sits just above the mid-point of its guidance range of 945,000-985,000 boe/d and is anchored by a $5.2 billion capital program. In 2027, our production outlook sits at 1.0 million boe/d supported by a $5.25 billion (up from $5.0 billion) capital program, including planned maintenance.”
Mr. Pardy also points to the presence of “upstream growth projects galore,” believing the addition of MEG Energy’s Christina Lake asset to its portfolio late last year “has created a huge in-situ oil sands complex which should yield synergistic, integrated development opportunities for decades to come.”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Cenovus shares, he raised his target to $47 from $45. The average is $43.22.
“Under futures, Cenovus is trading at debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 4.4 times in 2026 and 5.0 times in 2027 (vs. our global major peer group average of 6.1 times and 6.4 times, respectively) and free cash flow yields (enterprise value) of 15 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively (vs. peers at 10 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively),” said Mr. Pardy. “In our minds, Cenovus should trade at an average/modest discount valuation vs. our peer group reflective of its capable leadership team, depth of inventory and solid balance sheet partially off-set by its mixed operating/financial performance in recent years.”
In a separate report, Mr. Pardy increased his Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET-T) target to $24, exceeding the $19.50 average, from $22 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Vermilion’s natural gas exploration success in Germany has intrigued us, but our appreciation for the scale of its resource accumulation and impact on its cash flow generation has been limited. Accordingly, our recent field trip to the company’s operations outside Hanover reinforced our confidence in its technical/ execution capabilities, improving production mix and rising mid-cycle free cash flow generation over the 2026-30 timeframe,” he said.
TD Cowen analyst Cherilyn Radbourne thinks the outlook for Finning International Inc. (FTT-T) “continues to strengthen,” emphasizing “copper prices are still very supportive, and Canada has taken the growth baton.”
“The backlog is a record and includes a first mining order in Argentina,” she added. “Finning is actively discussing data centre opportunities in Canada, but nothing is in backlog yet. Nation-building infrastructure plans in Canada are a latent positive as well.”
After the bell on Tuesday, the Vancouver-based industrial equipment dealer reported net revenue for the quarter of $2.5-billion, up 2 per cent year-over-year and narrowly below the Street’s expectation of $2.53-billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.02 was a penny above the consensus forecast, while the backlog stood at $3.8-billion, which is an all-time high and up 32 per cent from the same period in the last fiscal year.
“Q1/26 was a little soft but certainly not as noisy as some had anticipated, which we think contributed to the strong share price reaction,” said Ms. Radbourne in a client note. “Product support was up a solid 6 per cent year-over-year, with 13-per-cent growth in Canada more than offsetting some previously telegraphed/temporary weakness in Chile as a few customers re-calibrate their fleets and retire 797s based on recent 798 deliveries. Alberta-based Heavy Metal Equipment has purchased 19 797s from BHP: some are moving to Canada; the rest will stay in Chile.
“Finning’s population of ultra-class/large mining trucks in Canada/South America has increased 35 per cent since 2021 to 1,500 trucks (8-per-cent compound annual growth rate), which is an important indicator of future product support revenue. The backlog is a record $3.8-billion, up 30 per cent plus year-over-year and 20 per cent quarter-over-quarter, led by Canada, but orders exceeded new equipment deliveries across all regions. Notably, Finning received a large booking from Glencore for the restart of its Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina, which should bode well for the progression of other mining opportunities in that country.”
Also emphasizing Finning is actively discussing opportunities to supply primary/back-up power for data centres in Canada," Ms. Radbourne raised her target for Finning shares to $115 from $106, keeping a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $115.50.
“We believe Finning has made substantial/sustainable improvements in its earnings capacity over the cycle, and that the commodity investments required to underpin the energy transition should be conducive to a longer, more-gradual cycle vs. the boom-bust cycles of the past,” she said.
After TerraVest Industries Inc.’s (TVK-T) second-quarter results came in “better than feared with EBITDA coming in exactly in line with consensus and showing sequential improvement,” Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman says his “concerns about incremental softness in Entrans based on peer results” did not materialize.
“Moreover, it appears as though TerraVest has recaptured margins sooner than expected in its HVAC business with pass-through of higher steel cost almost complete for both residential and commercial tanks,” he added. “We expect data center tank deliveries to ramp in 2H as customer site delays are sorted out.
“We left our 2026 estimates unchanged and lowered our 2027 estimates, primarily on a more modest ramp of U.S. Army contract. Notably, our estimates exclude upside from data center tanks as we do not have visibility on backlog, but it is likely significant and growing.”
Mr. Goldman thinks investors shared his concern heading into last Thursday’s premarket quarterly release with shares of the Toronto-based industrial manufacturer down 10 per cent over the prior two weeks and 24 per cent year-to-date.
However, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 11 per cent from the prior quarter to $75-million, falling in-line with Mr. Goldman’s $74-million estimate and narrowly below the Street’s $77-million projection.
“The outlook notes most business lines are performing in line with management expectations while tank trailer demand remains soft (not new) and demand for industrial steel tanks continues to be stronger than expected,” he noted. “The company also said its ‘diverse manufacturing footprint in North America allows [it] to mitigate against direct tariff-related impacts.’”
Keeping his “sector outperform” rating for TerraVest shares, Mr. Goldman reduced his target to $172 from $178. The average is $181.
“We value TVK at 11.5 times EV/EBITDA on our 2027 estimates based on a 1-time premium to other compounders + $30/share from data centre tank upside, which equates to a consolidated multiple of 13.25 times,” he explained. “We estimate normalized power of $470-million, including a recovery in Entrans, but excluding additional M&A. On that basis, TVK shares are trading at 8.6 times EV/EBITDA on normalized earnings power.”
Elsewhere, Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk trimmed his target to $190 from $192 with a “buy” rating.
“We see cyclical upside within Entrans to the tune of over $40 million in EBITDA and are encouraged by recent signs of recovery. By way of contrast, the legacy business is relatively stable, featuring non-discretionary demand drivers, including replacement cycles, heating/cooling needs, crop drying, and water management. Within the legacy business, we see elevated demand for retail fuel tanks from convenience stores for replacement purposes and refined fuel tanks, thermal energy storage tanks, and heavy haul trailers for data centre applications. All told, we continue to view TerraVest as a compelling long-term compounder,” said Mr. Lynk.
After a first-quarter beat from DRI Healthcare Trust (DHT.UN-T) that saw its EBITDA margin continue to “shine,” National Bank Financial analyst Nathan Po said its “existing portfolio alone boasts a mid-teens FCF yield, marking a compelling entry point, on top of which the growth potential from new deployments provides significant optionality.”
“With no unusual 1-timers in Q1, management indicated a margin within the high-80s to low-90s is sustainable; investments in people and data in the coming quarters will see margins likely dip into the high-80s, before bouncing back as more revenue is layered into the system,” he added. “Accordingly, we tweak our run-rate expense forecasts, seeing our Adj. EBITDA margin in FY26 rise to 89.7 per cent (was 85.8 per cent). Further, we believe DHT has a credible path towards exceeding FY26 EBITDA guidance for $157-162 million (National Bank estimate: $170.7 million).”
After the bell on Thursday, the Toronto-based global pharmaceutical royalty company reported quarterly revenue of $50.6-million, up 14.8 per cent year-over-year and exceeding both Mr. Po’s $45.2-million estimate and the consensus projection of $46.6-million. Adjusted EBITDA of $52.8-million on 90.4-per-cent margins topped the analyst’s expectation of $51.3-million and 88.6 per cent as well as the Street’s forecast of $45.3-million and 79.1 per cent.
“With the $40 million no longer required for two veligrotug milestone payments, debt refinancings completed earlier this year, and potential cash infusion from the ekterly buyback, DHT will have more optionality this year than initially expected,” said Mr. Po. “DHT has a large $3-billion pipeline and will continue to take a methodical approach (won’t transact just for the sake of pushing), with guidance for a transaction still suggesting timing later in H2/26, but management did allow that the increased optionality could allow for a larger transaction size, or more simultaneous transactions at DHT’s historical scale.”
Keeping his “outperform” rating for DHT units, the analyst raised his target by $1 to $23.50. The average is $21.50.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Stifel’s Justin Keywood to $23 from $22 with a “buy” rating.
“DRI’s stock has been tepid, ahead of a regulatory catalyst and June 30 PDUFA date for VRDN BLA. The Kalvista (KALV) take-out for Ekterly royalty asset may also result in exercising a US$180-million Put option or 1.5 times DRI’s invested capital, less royalties received. We believe timing of such will coincide around the KALV transaction close (Q3). The regulatory catalyst and possible net large cash injection could broaden the pipeline of M&A opportunities (US$3-billion), including portfolio transactions. DRI trades at a large discount on several metrics, including 5 times EBITDA, vs. RPRX, 10 times with moving parts to digest but also suggesting opportunity as an NCIB is renewed. TP edges up to C$23.00, reflecting the improved structural margin change,” said Mr. Keywood.
* Scotia’s Louise Chen to US$30 from US$25 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“DRI has the characteristics of a large Biopharma company without the risks and costs,” she said.
Ventum Capital Markets analyst Robin Kozar thinks Faraday Copper Corp.’s (FDY-T) pending acquisition of BHP’s San Manuel property adjacent to its own Copper Creek project in Arizona is “transformational, providing synergies, significant resources, and production scalability to an already exciting story.”
“Faraday’s Copper Creek project sits at the intersection of two major porphyry copper belts in southwestern Arizona,” he explained. “The resource remains open in all directions, with fewer than 15% of known breccia occurrences drill-tested to date. The Company’s largest-ever drill program (40,000 m Phase IV) is currently underway. An updated resource estimate is expected in mid-2027. We see further scope to expand and better define the copper oxide near surface at Copper Creek, supporting oxide resource growth amenable to heap-leach processing.
“In February 2026, Faraday signed an letter of intent (LOI) to acquire BHP’s adjacent San Manuel property, one of the largest underground copper mines in U.S. history. We view this transaction as transformative. The addition of San Manuel provides significant resource growth, synergies through centralized infrastructure and processing, production scalability, and an accelerated pathway to production.”
Resuming coverage, Mr. Kozar sees the Vancouver-based company as “well-positioned to surface additional value and become one of the largest copper producers in the U.S,” pointing to its “backing from the Lundin Group and BHP and a well-funded treasury.”
“We think there is potential for Faraday to surface additional value as the combined Copper Creek/San Manuel operation is optimized and better understood,” he said.
The analyst gave Faraday a “buy” rating and $7 target. The average is $5.56.
In other analyst actions:
* ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray thinks AutoCanada Inc.’s (ACQ-T) first-quarter results and outlook “reinforce [a] transitional year ahead.” He cut his target to $21, below the $21.33 average, from $22 with a “sector perform” rating.
“While headline Adjusted EBITDA of $31-million (down 28 per cent year-over-year) for Q1/26 exceeded ATB estimates, we would characterize it as a lower-quality beat, driven primarily by cost-saving/restructuring initiatives, with gross profit below our estimates on softer activity levels and used vehicle profitability. Management reaffirmed expectations that performance should demonstrate improvement in H2/26, led by used vehicles, with a larger turnaround likely 12-18 months away. The results, outlook, and an increasingly challenging consumer backdrop keep us cautious on the name,” said Mr. Murray.
* TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme hiked his Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) target to $72 from $63 with a “buy” rating. The average is $52.86.
“While BDT’s share price has performed exceptionally well year-to-date (up 100 per cent), we continue to see upside supported by both multiple re-rating and a highly attractive EBITDA growth algorithm. BDT continues to trade at one of the lowest valuations among NA construction peers. Continued award wins in the near-to-med term should improve visibility on BDT’s growth across key end markets and support re-rating,” said Mr. Tupholme.
* ATB Cormark’s Nicholas Boychuk hiked his Calian Group Ltd. (CGY-T) target to $98.50 from $92.50, exceeding the $90 average, with an “outperform” rating.
“CGY reported a second consecutive quarterly beat to start the year. Between these results, Management’s commentary, and our subsequent investor call, it’s clear CGY is well-positioned as an early benefactor of increased defence spending. Encouragingly, this growth is diversified across the portfolio rather than tied to a single theme, and supported an increase in near-term estimates. As the team continues to execute in the back half of the year, we expect the stock to continue grinding higher,” said Mr. Boychuk.
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho bumped his Diversified Royalty Corp. (DIV-T) target to $4.75 from $4.50, keeping a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $4.55.
“1Q results were modestly below expectations, driven by softer Mr. Lube (ML) same-store sales growth of 3.0 per cent (vs our 7.2 per cent),” he said. “DIV announced a $235-million acquisition of the ML franchisor business (not already owned), which is approximately 11-per-cent accretive to distributable cash/share and unlocks the full operating leverage of its best-performing partner. We favour ML’s proven track record and store growth catalysts, although 4.5 times PF leverage is worth monitoring.”
“Our investment thesis is predicated on: (1) DIV’s high-quality franchise revenue stream with acquisition upside; (2) a royalty structure which enables successful franchisors to monetize their EBITDA without forgoing future upside; and (3) an attractive 6.6-per-cent dividend yield.”
* TD Cowen’s Sean Steuart cut his target for shares of Interfor Corp. (IFP-T) to $10 from $12 with a “hold” rating. The average is $12.75.
“IFP is taking measures to preserve balance sheet flexibility as the North American lumber market continues through one of the longest cyclical troughs on record. A more focused approach to production curtailments is a facet of mid-term cost reduction objectives. We remain cautious given a relatively high risk profile associated with elevated leverage ratios,” said Mr. Steuart.
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski lowered his target for Onex Corp. (ONEX-T) to $130 from $136, below the $151.25 average, with a “sector perform” rating.
“Onex remains a company in transition pivoting away from its core business to a balance sheet operating company,” said Mr. Dziarski.
* TD Cowen’s Derek Lessard, currently the lone analyst covering Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp. (PZA-T), lowered his target to $12 from $14 with a “hold” rating.
“PZA shares are down 11 per cent year-to-date, and we expect the stock to react negatively on Tuesday given the dividend cut and as investors lower expectations. We maintain our HOLD rating as low consumer confidence and intense competition under a soft macro backdrop are not constructive for any meaningful SSSG improvements or stock re-rating in the near term,” he said.
* Following in-line first-quarter results, Desjardins Securities’ Kyle Stanley bumped his PRO Real Estate Investment Trust (PRV.UN-T) to $6.75 from $6.50 with a “hold” rating. The average is $7.
“Temporary vacancy and higher interest expense drove a 3-per-cent revision to our 2026 FFOPU [funds from operations per unit] outlook (2-per-cent year-over-year growth),” said Mt. Stanley. “That said, given robust demand for small-to-mid-bay industrial assets in secondary markets, we expect earnings growth to accelerate into 2027 (10-per-cent year-over-year growth). We maintain our Hold rating given an 11.9 times 2027 P/ FFO multiple (in line with peers) despite the more subdued near-term earnings growth outlook.”
* Scotia’s Ben Isaacson raised his Superior Plus Corp. (SPB-T) target to $8.50 from $7 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $8.15.
“We exit Q1 cautiously optimistic SPB could enjoy a re-rate over time. On the optimism: (1) SPB showed tangible progress on Superior Delivers; and (2) now a possible return to growth at Certarus, via a powerful external demand driver from AI data-center power constraints. On the caution: (1) B/S leverage stands at 4.0 times, with no major improvement expected near-term; (2) we had feedback last week that capital allocation pivots occur too frequently: growth over the B/S; then debt reduction; then buybacks over B/S health; and now back to growth over buybacks and B/S health; and (3) capital spending begins again, with back-end loaded cash flow and IRRs that won’t be achieved on current contracts alone. On valuation, we have revised our PT to C$8.50, using 6.5 times ‘27 estimated EBITDA (up from 6.0 times). Here’s a better way to think about it: Based on SPB’s ‘27 EBITDA guide (up 5 per cent year-over-year), and using SPB’s average FCF conversion rate, SPB should earn US$0.85/sh in recurring FCF, or C$1.20. As SPB’s historical FCF yield is 13%, rightly or wrongly, then C$1.20 at a 13-per-cent yield = C$8.50. Of course, actual FCF will land far below recurring, due to growth capital deployment vs. cash flow benefit timing. We maintain a Sector Perform rating,” said Mr. Isaascon.
* Roth Capital’s Jamie Somerville initiated coverage of Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TVE-T) with a “buy” rating and $15 target. The average is $12.
* BofA Securities’ Curtis Nagle lowered his price target on Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-N, TRI-T) to US$98 from US$115, keeping a “neutral” rating. The average is US$142.32.