Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While Canadian bank stocks are up 33 per cent thus far in 2026, nearly doubling the S&P/TSX composite index, National Bank analyst Gabriel Dechaine thinks the group is “set to maintain its typical H2 outperformance relative to the market,” assuming no major negative surprises, like a spike in provisions for credit losses (PCLs) or deteriorating net interest (NIM) guidance, during third-quarter earnings season.
“While we expect banks to downplay potential for large-scale M&A and to emphasize organic strategies, any shift in messaging could be an important stock driver (potentially negative),” he said.
“Our top pick into the quarter is OP-rated TD, which we believe offers underappreciated Capital Markets exposure and U.S. loan growth potential. We are also relatively positive on BNS (low expectations, potential credit performance improvement, Canadian P&C turnaround) and view CM as a potential winner if it can deliver margin expansion that reverses the disappointment of its Q2/26 performance.”
in a client report released Thursday. Mr. Dechaine raised his third-quarter forecast for the sector, primarily in the Capital Markets and Wealth segments. He also introducing his fiscal 2028 estimates, which imply average earnings per share growth of 10 per cent.
“The credit cycle has been steadily deteriorating since Q3/22,” he noted. “However, Gross Impaired Loan (GIL) formations may be hitting a plateau. Q2/26 GIL ratios were up 1 bp on average. We do not expect banks to make material additions to their performing provisions this quarter. The most important credit signal will be reiteration of potential ‘normalization’ in fiscal 2027.
“NIM performance disappointed last quarter, with four of the six banks reporting compression. Nonetheless, guidance is for ‘stable’ performance with the exception of BNS (had 4 bps of ‘seasonal’ expansion last quarter). Looking ahead, we believe investors are eager for updates on the sustainability of higher spreads on mortgage renewals and the potential challenge of funding cost pressures (i.e., deposit competition).”
Also expecting “another strong quarter” for Capital Markets, due to “elevated market activity feeding trading desks and advisory businesses,” and noting “the M&A question looms” with their stocks “setting all-time highs, and with relative valuation versus U.S. banks stretching beyond historical averages,” Mr. Dechaine increased his target prices for banks by an average of 18 per cent. His adjustments are:
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “sector perform”) to $278 from $236. The average on the Street is $234.75.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “sector perform”) to $128 from $106. Average: $115.88.
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “sector perform”) to $180 from $152. Average: $158.06.
- EQB Inc. (EQB-T, “sector perform”) to $143 from $120. Average: $132.86.
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “outperform”) to $318 from $271. Average: $281.44.
- Toronto Dominion Bank (TD-T, “outperform”) to $190 from $162. Average: $160.56.
“The following adjustments were applied: 1) an extension of our valuation horizon to fiscal 2028; and 2) an increase to our target valuation multiples,” explained Mr. Dechaine. “Aside from the extended timeline, our average P/E is increasing to approximately 14.5 from 13.5 times. This adjustment balances improving financial performance trends in the Canadian banking sector (e.g., higher ROE trajectories, potential credit cycle improvement in 2028) along with a sector re-rating that has proven to be more persistent and sustainable than we initially believed was possible.”
Jefferies analyst John Aiken said he remains “concerned” that valuation multiples for Canadian Banks “do not fully reflect the uncertain outlook” for the earnings across the sector.
“The relative revenue headwinds are well understood and credit, while not yet a tailwind, remains constrained,” he added. “However, should Q3 earnings not be supportive to the base case 2027 outlook, their being priced for perfection implies potential downside.”
In a client report released Thursday titled More of the Same a Solid Result in Context, Mr. Aiken emphasized “many top line push-pulls make for an interest quarter.”
“While the domestic economic malaise largely precludes an earnings breakout for the Canadian banks, there are still several factors that are in their favour,” he explained. “We anticipate that domestic personal lending growth will remain anemic but are looking for some acceleration on commercial lending. Outside of Canada should be a tailwind, and we are looking for flat to modestly up on bank-wide net interest margins. Economic resilience implies that credit is not a material risk, but with management team’s previously indicating an improved second half, this will still likely be a strong driver of sentiment coming out of the quarter.
“From our standpoint, the outlook for 2027 still remains murky, with a potential catalyst looming next with the trade negotiations intensifying ahead of the August 19 tariff date. With a high degree of uncertainty still embedded in the banks’ outlook, the market continues to shrug off concerns and allocate record high multiples. While we do not believe that the third quarter will pull the rug out from under their valuations, we maintain our stance that earnings will need to grow into their current prices, which is far from a near term guarantee.”
Seeing valuations “stretched,” Mr. Aiken made these target tweaks:
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “hold”) to $225 from $213. The average on the Street is $234.75.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “hold”) to $117 from $112. Average: $115.88.
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “hold”) to $153 from $143. Average: $158.06.
- EQB Inc. (EQB-T, “hold”) to $129 from $122. Average: $132.86.
- National Bank of Canada (NA-T, “hold”) to $208 from $196. Average: $221.50.
While acknowledging the strategic rationale for GO Residential Real Estate Investment Trust’s (GO.U-T) move to acquire 27 properties from H&R Real Estate Investment Trust (HR-UN-T) “with regards to scale and public market liquidity plus the improved leverage profile,” National Bank Financial analyst Matt Kornack called it “a significant acquisition with material associated equity dilution and execution risk in arriving at the expected yield.”
“Excluding synergies and marking debt to market, it’s hard to see much in the way of near-term earnings accretion (the opposite may be the case, particularly when considering the longer-term plans for Gotham Center, which likely was attributed little value but contributes meaningfully to NOI),” he said. “While GO continues to trade at a discount, it is less pronounced given NAV dilution.
That view led Mr. Kornack to lower his rating for GO Residential units to “sector perform” from “outperform” following Tuesday’s announcement of the $3.4-billion deal, which involves H&R selling all of its assets to a consortium, consisting of multiple individual buyers who are acquiring different parts of the portfolio. They include GO Residential, U.S. private equity giant Blackstone Inc., Crestpoint Real Estate Investments Ltd., the Public Sector Pension Investment Board and a company controlled by members of H&R’s founding Hofstedter family.
“Management noted a going-in cap rate, excluding synergies and income support in the low 6-per-cent range with a more material upside when taking into account improved operating efficiencies contributions related to properties under development,” said Mr. Kornack. “Details were light on the breakdown of NOI but based on H&R’s disclosure the apartment portfolio was valued at a 4.7-per-cent cap rate. The bridge to 6 per cent likely involves a not immaterial contribution from the Gotham office property (keep in mind the sole tenant at this property was H&R’s largest single tenant making up 10 per cent of rentals from IPP). Meanwhile, debt assumed was at relatively low rates, specifics on the mortgage portfolio weren’t provided but in aggregate, rates for HR here were around 4 per cent as were the unsecured debentures (The current U.S. 5-year treasury is 4.4 per cent).”
Mr. Kornack lowered his target for GO Residential units to US$9.50 from US$10.75. The average is US$14.22.
In a separate report, Mr. Kornack also lowered H&R units to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously, with an $11.50 target, down from $12.25. The average is $11.75.
“Admittedly the market has been waiting for a potential H&R take-out or transformational transaction, so there is no surprise that a deal has been reached,” he said. “The contents of the deal are likely not what was expected or hoped for with a partial privatization of assets and an RTO by another public entity (a cash bid in the $12-14 range had been the hope). We think some longer-term value, crystalized in the cash sale portfolio could have been left on the table - H&R was heavy on land / density plays, that at time zero are in less favour, but had significant longer-term optionality. Furthermore, the remainco merger with GO adds some high-quality assets but at the expense of a weaker balance sheet. In a hypothetical world, we believe that the REIT could have sold its industrial portfolio with modest dilution and held the residual assets with a solid financial position.”
A protracted strike by Metro Inc. (MRU-T) employees at its produce distribution centre in Greater Montreal has overshadowed “otherwise solid food execution,” while an “accelerating pivot to discount” has reinforced its shift in strategic direction, according to RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel.
“Competitive environment intense but rational, consumers continuing to trade down to PL and discount,” he said. “Roughly half of the strike-driven transaction decline was concentrated in produce; basket up by a zucchini with internal inflation in line with CPI of 3.9 per cent. ON holding share. In our view, rebuilding traffic in QC will likely take time and potentially require a step-up in promotional activity, but we are confident MRU can eventually return to pre-strike profitability given strong merchandising capabilities and deep customer goodwill. Online sales up 16.3 per cent (prior year up 14.4 per cent ). Secular shift to discount well-established: 5 new discount stores in Q3, 12 by fiscal year-end, plus 10-store Metro-to-Food Basics conversion program expected to generate above-hurdle returns with positive sales impact in year one. Reminder: Première Moisson bakery sale to FGF Brands for $90-million expected to close Q4.”
While Metro’s second-quarter results, which were released before the bell on Wednesday, largely fell in line with a business update provided on June 25, Ms. Nattel emphasized results for the rest of the year “continue to be negatively impacted by the labor dispute here in Quebec now well into its 5th month.”
“Looking through the impact, MRU continues to optimize its network with planned conversion of 10 metro stores in Ontario to Food Basics to address shifting market dynamics and secular shift to discount banners and channels,” he said.
“Tweaking FQ4/ FQ1 2027 same-store sales and margins to reflect estimates of early impact of labour conflict, F26/F27E down 4 per cent, F28E largely unchanged. Adjusted diluted Q3 EPS $1.24. 19-per-cent year-to-year with estimated negative impact of the strike estimated at $0.32/share, ‘normalizing’ for estimated $90-million strike impact implies also in-line.”
Also noting “pharmacy remains a structural growth driver with GLP-1 tailwinds intact despite genericization,” Ms. Nattel trimmed her target for Metro shares to $110 from $111 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $99.70.
“Looking through the strike impact, the underlying business continues to perform well, with MRU holding share in Ontario, pharmacy delivering consistent growth, and the accelerated pivot to discount reinforcing a secular shift that now accounts for over 40% of food revenues. Network optimization, including the 10-store Metro-to-Food Basics conversion program and a restructured e-commerce fulfillment model, combined with ongoing cost discipline, should drive earnings recovery post-strike. Rebuilding traffic in Quebec will likely require time and a step-up in promotional investment, but MRU’s strong merchandising capabilities and deep customer goodwill position the company well for a return to pre-strike profitability levels,” she said.
Other analysts making revisions include:
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $108 from $106 with a “buy” rating.
“Q3/F26 results were in line with consensus. The Laval produce DC strike is pressuring Food trends, offset by strength in Pharmacy. With disruption continuing in Q4/F26, Food pressure continues, and investor focus remains on a strike resolution. In the interim, management is taking action to further align the network to industry trends to return Metro post-strike to its 8-10-per-cent EPS growth algorithm,” said Mr. Morrison.
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $102 from $105 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Lingering strike impacts caused us to revise Q4/F26 estimates downward. While a prolonged strike may result in further impact, our view is that it will prove to be transitory (our F2027+ estimates are largely unchanged),” said Mr. Shreedhar. “MRU continues to accelerate its discount development (will convert 10 Metro stores to Food Basics) as management indicated consumer behaviour remains consistent with prior quarters (value focused, elevated promo, etc.).”
“We believe MRU is a solid company which has delivered solid long-term returns over various economic cycles. However, our coverage presents investments which offer a better comparative investment proposition.”
Following “better than feared” second-quarter results, National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev sees AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T) as “a leaner and more efficient entity, but macro and competitive dynamics continue to weigh on margins.”
“On absolute profitability, it was an in-line to slightly better quarter while the top line was less bad than feared as New revenue advanced on strong pricing and volumes in Used moved up as well (even though gross profit still has some ways to go); the balance sheet as well on the back of asset sales is now looking more manageable,” he said. “Commentary around June/July trends from ACQ relative to the market was also encouraging; the problem, of course, is that the market is likely to decline when it comes to new auto sales, driven by affordability issues and a lacklustre economic backdrop.
“While we would love to be able to predict the nature and the curvature of the consumer sentiment upturn, we believe such a dynamic is not immediately apparent. As a result, we are encouraged by operational improvements that ACQ is implementing at the moment to be able to take advantage of an eventual rebound, but for the time being we are comfortable staying on the sidelines.”
After the bell on Wednesday, the Edmonton-based multi-location automobile dealership group reported revenue from continuing operations of $1.418-billion, topping the Street’s expectation by 12 per cent ($1.268-billion) as volumes increased 10 per cent year over year and pricing per unit remained “resilient” at up 3 per cent. Headline (unadjusted) earnings per share of 66 cents was below both the consensus estimate of 77 cents and Mr. Sytchev’s 76-cent estimate on “the flow-through of lower EBITDA margins and a $4-million year-over-year increase in financing costs.
“ACQ disclosed that it sold three Canadian dealerships in BC during Q2/26; management characterized them as underperforming assets that did not meet the company’s long-term return objectives (proceeds were not disclosed, operational EBITDA contribution from dealerships was a slight negative, no impact on EBITDA going forward but, of course, positive contribution to leverage),” said Mr. Sytchev. “Management also noted it doesn’t see any other imminent divestitures in Canada at the moment. In the U.S., ACQ received US$106-million related to its U.S. disposition program (total expected proceeds are now north of US$130-million vs. US$115-million to US$130-million previously, attributed to higher land value in Chicago). The remaining U.S. proceeds are intended to be directed toward debt reduction.
“Volume recovery gains some traction with GPU improvement expected from Q4/26E onward. Used-vehicle volume, inventory velocity, finance and insurance, and cost control are improving, while new vehicle volumes remain under pressure due to tough economic conditions/consumer pressures and high financing costs. Alberta was singled out as the strongest market in Canada; Saskatchewan and Manitoba are also performing better while BC and Ontario suffered from consumer/housing economics the most. Although used GPUs improved quarter-over-quarter, margins remained under pressure as ACQ was still working through aged inventory. Management signalled that for Q3/26E there are still some long-dated cars it needs to get through (don’t expect GPUs to improve as a result), but we should see more improvement in Q4/26E and into 2027E. Management stated its main objective for now is to increase volumes (and top line), as opposed to win on margins (management still sees $4 mln to $5-million of incremental cost savings in OpEx). ACQ grew its market share in June and July, according to management. Lastly, ACQ also expects stronger H2/26E in collision centres due to a pickup in hail activity.”
“Cautiously penciling in a gradual recovery,” Mr. Sytchev raised his target to $23 from $21, reaffirming a “sector perform” rating. The average target on the Street is $23.06.
“Pricing for new and used vehicles remains resilient, while used volumes surprised to the upside,” he explained. As a result, we now expect improved top-line contributions from both segments going forward despite the continued macro uncertainty, helped by easy comps as sales productivity rebounds following restructuring. We have maintained our margin expansion outlook largely steady for the time being as we need to gain confidence in the structural nature of the fixed cost base.”
Even though Linamar Corp.’s (LNR-T) second-quarter earnings fell short of consensus projections, Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman called it “a good outcome given we were flying blind into the quarter as to the impact of S232 tariffs.”
“Tariff impact is expected to be most acute in 2Q and the company maintained all annual guidance metrics,” he said in a client report titled Punching Above Its Weight.
After the bell on Wednesday, the Guelph, Ont.-based auto parts manufacturer reported quarterly sales of $3.13-million, topping the consensus projection of $3.03-billion, however adjusted EBIT of $273-million missed the Street’s expectation $279-million.
“Mobility guidance calls for flat margins (8.6 per cent) despite double-digits top-line growth on a tough compare,” said Mr. Goldman. “There were some questions on the call, but to be clear, 8.6-per-cent margin in 3Q is a great guide. Aside from the fact that it is 50 basis points ahead of consensus, it represents more than 100 basis points above comparable 2019 levels, despite a lower LVP and inflationary cost environment, and underscores very strong execution whereas peers are still playing catch-up. There was also confusion on the sequential decline in the Industrial margin guide, which is easily explained by seasonality with segment margins typically declining by 200 basis points quarter-over-quarter in 3Q. 2Q Industrial margins were down 500 basis points year-over-year due to tariffs, which we expect will get incorporated into forward estimates. Strong growth in Skyjack (up 53 per cent year-to-date vs. market up 31 per cent) is offsetting continued weakness in Ag.”
Keeping his “sector perform” rating for Linamar shares, Mr. Goldman raised his target to $114 from $102. The average is $108.50.
“We made minor changes to our estimates,” he said. “We raised our valuation multiple to 9-times P/E on our equal-weighted 2026E/2027E (from 8 times), a 1.5-times discount to our [Magna International Inc.] valuation, in-line with the historical discount and appropriate given lower forecasted EPS growth and lower liquidity, despite better B/S. We remain on the sidelines due to a narrow return to target.”
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison increased his target to $123 from $119 with a “buy” rating.
“Mobility inclusive of acquisitions continues to drive attractive year-over-year growth in EBITDA/EPS. While Skyjack revenue growth is strong/accelerating, Industrial results are partially offsetting Mobility due to S232 tariffs/weak Agriculture backdrop. A positive growth outlook, strong FCF/ balance sheet providing capital allocation optionality, and reasonable valuation maintain our positive recommendation,” said Mr. Morrison.
While Maple Leaf Foods Inc.’s (MFI-T) second-quarter EBITDA topped the Street’s expectation by 1 per cent on better margins and it maintained its full-year guidance, Ventum Financial analyst George Doumet thinks “the debate remains growth: revenue increased just 1.5 per cent, below consensus and MFI’s mid-single-digit (MSD) long-term algorithm, requiring an acceleration into the H2.
“Healthy 13.4 per cent EBITDA margins, supported by poultry mix and efficiencies, reinforced the credible path toward 15 per cent in the medium to longer term,” he added. “While seasonally softer Q3 margins remain ahead, we see [Wednesday’s] print providing some relief, with sustained margin expansion and increasing capital returns remaining the key ingredients for a continued re-rating.”
In a client report titled Crouching Pig, Roaring Chicken, Mr. Doumet said Maple Leaf’s poultry business “remained the standout, with sales up 7 per cent on broad-based volume growth across retail and foodservice, favourable mix and pricing, partly offset by higher trade spend, while Maple Leaf Prime continued to gain share.” He also noted sales for its Prepared Foods segment declined 2 per cent, but “profitability improved due to a better mix.”
“The reaffirmed $520–540-million guidance implies H2 EBITDA of $260–280-million versus approximately $260M in H1, supported by the full benefit of February pricing, continued Fuel for Growth savings, poultry momentum and a recovery in Prepared Foods volumes, supplemented by snacking distribution and the Yves relaunch,” he added. “Q3 remains the margin “low watermark,” with broad-based inflation across proteins, packaging, freight and labour, including sequentially higher pork costs. Importantly, pricing is fully in place, and trade spend should remain broadly stable. We model a Q3 margin of 12.6 per cent and EBITDA of $130-million, with Prepared Foods returning to growth around Q4 and supporting the year-end earnings ramp.
“More doors, more bites. Snacking/innovation continues to build distribution across multiple channels, creating a broader platform for future growth. In Canada, MFI is closing retail distribution gaps, expanding single-serve in club, entering dollar with shelf-stable products, and adding 1,500 net new convenience locations. U.S. momentum is also building, with national distribution secured at three retailers and one club customer expanding from three to eight regions. With several new formats and products launching across the portfolio, we view snacking as a multi-quarter distribution and velocity build rather than a near-term H2/26 catalyst.”
After making a “modest” reduction to his forecast for the second half of 2026, Mr. Doumet trimmed his target to $37 from $39, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is $35.60.
Elsewhere, other analysts making revisions include:
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $34 from $36 with an “outperform” rating.
“We consider Q2/26 results to be slightly light due to weaker revenue than expected, introducing uncertainty on 2026 sales guidance; profitability was solid,” said Mr. Shreedhar.
“We believe that MFI has the opportunity to deliver amongst the highest EBITDA margin within branded protein peers, with solid top-line growth. We acknowledge heightened risk, predominantly due to execution and commodity volatility. Valuation can re-rate higher if MFI demonstrates stable sales growth and EBITDA margin improvement over time.”
* Scotia’s John Zamparo to $33 from $36 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We expect a slightly lower sales growth trajectory for MFI may be the likeliest outcome near-term, whereas investors had hoped for early achievement of the 5-per-cent target. Poultry keeps delivering, but price increases are limiting volume growth and plant-based continues to suppress consolidated growth. This year’s guidance looks very achievable, but the Q3 raise we’d been expecting seems less likely,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan to $37 from $39 with a “buy” rating.
“Following the spin-out of its pork processing business, we believe Maple Leaf should exhibit a higher degree of top-line and margin resilience on a go-forward basis, which should command a higher multiple from investors. In our view, Maple Leaf offers long-term investors an attractive growth profile at a reasonable valuation given the company’s robust brand portfolio and category dominance in prepared meats,” said Mr. Hannan.
In other analyst actions:
* ATB Cormark’s Gavin Fairweather moved Sylogist Ltd. (SYZ-T) to a “speculative buy” rating from “outperform” and lowered his target for shares of the Calgary-based software company to $4.75 from $5.50. The average on the Street is $4.62.
“We have taken our forward estimates lower following the Q2 print to reflect more gradual improvement in revenue given churn, a more gradual pace of professional services recovery, and the impacts of these factors on profitability. That said, we do see optionality on a more rapid rise in profitability if growth remains elusive in the upcoming quarters and the cost structure is reduced further. While the turnaround remains in the early innings, we have confidence recent actions under new Management are positioning the company for improved growth and profitability. With a market cap of only $79MM, there are several paths to meaningful value creation (faster growth, higher margins, takeout). However, until we have greater visibility into a financial inflection, we are moving our rating to Speculative Buy,” he said.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Jeremy Hoy initiated coverage of Galiano Gold Inc. (GAU-T) with a “buy” rating and $5.50 target. The average is $5.32.
“Galiano is a single-asset gold producer that owns a 90-per-cent interest in the Asanko Gold Mine (AGM) in Ghana, with the Government of Ghana holding the remaining 10-per-cent free-carried interest, where multiple open pits feed a centralized processing plant,” said Mr. Hoy. “Our thesis is straightforward: a self-funded, grade-driven production growth profile underpins a sharp free cash flow inflection over the next several years, which we believe will drive a re-rating of the stock, which currently trades at a marked discount to its West African peers. Our valuation is based on a conservative open-pit-only scenario, leaving the maiden underground resource and further reserve growth as upside that is not reflected in our base case.”
* Following better-than-expected second-quarter results and the announcement of the sale of a 25-per-cent stake of its Aeroplan loyalty program to a consortium led by Blackstone and La Caisse, for $2.5-billion, National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen hiked his target for shares of Air Canada (AC-T) to $40 from $29 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: RBC’s James McGarragle to $37 from $28 with an “outperform” rating and , ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray to $45 from $32 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $27.89.
“Air Canada shares have been stronger in recent months and even with the boost [Wednesday], based on our updated 2027 estimates, the implied value of Air Canada ex-Aeroplan (based on the transaction value) is only 2.4 times EV/EBITDA,” said Mr. Doerksen. “We consider this too low given that Air Canada is a profitable and growing company with a solid balance sheet.”
“We previously valued the stock by applying a 4.5 times EV/EBITDA multiple to our 2027 forecast. However, the Aeroplan stake sale underscores that airline loyalty programs command higher valuations, and we therefore argue that a 4.5-times multiple is too low. We are therefore increasing our valuation multiple on consolidated EBITDA to 5.5 times (in line with the U.S. legacy airline peer group which trades at 5.3 times on average on 2027 estimates).”
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho bumped his target for Apotex Health Corp. (APTX-T) to $41 from $40 with a “buy” rating, while Canaccord Genuity’s Tania Armstrong-Whitworth lowered her target to $41.50 from $42 with a “buy” rating. The average is $41.24.
“APTX’s first print as a public company was net positive—adjusted EBITDA of $259.3-million beat our estimate by 13 per cent on a 30.6-per-cent margin, partly helped by a one-time event, and new FY27 guidance (upper mid-single-digit revenue growth ex-VLLP, 30-per-cent EBITDA margin) supports our near-term view,” said Mr. Ho. “Semaglutide momentum in Canada, a 2H exclusive U.S. launch and Richmond Hill’s FDA reinspection readiness by year-end add visibility.”
“Our investment thesis is predicated on: (1) dominant Canadian market share and brand; (2) a diversifying, higher-margin business mix; and (3) a first-to-market pipeline anchored by the Apo-Semaglutide launch.”
* Raymond James’ Luke Davis increased his target for shares of Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-T) to $8.50 from $8 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $7.81.
“In follow up to its double-digit first quarter beat, Birchcliff posted 2Q26 results that featured a 35-day facility turnaround at Pouce that has supported the area now running at productive capacity - leading to a modest increase to the midpoint of production guidance and a higher expected exit rate. By all accounts, the core business is working, as higher infrastructure utilization drives margin expansion and accelerates debt repayment/share repurchases - all while well productivity nudges higher. Although we recognize the choppy gas macro creates uncertainty around FID timing at Elmworth, we ultimately expect the project to go ahead and would view FID of Ksi Lisims LNG as a supportive catalyst,” said Mr. Davis.
* Touting “accelerating” margin improvement and “solid” same-store sales volumes, National Bank’s Zachary Evershed moved his target for Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T) to $270 from $265 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman to $210 from $219 with a “sector outperform” rating, ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray to $250 from $245 with an “outperform” rating, TD Cowen’s Derek Lessard to $200 from $190 with a “buy” rating, RBC’s Sabahat Khan to $236 from $245 with an “outperform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $225 from $240 with a “buy” rating. The average is $227.34.
“We remain bullish on the overall SSSG and margin expansion trajectories, internal initiatives are exceeding expectations, and the M&A environment remains supportive. We see an exceptional entry point with BYD trading at a 7.8-per-cent FCF yield, and BYD remains our #3 pick for 2026,” said Mr. Evershed.
* Believes a “record capital deployment pace supports the growth thesis,” National Bank’s Doug Taylor raised his Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T) target to $3,700 from $3,500 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: RBC’s Paul Treiber to $4,400 from $4,500 with an “outperform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil to $4,000 from $3,900 with a “buy” rating.. The average is $3,917.81.
“CSU’s quarter looked softer on the surface, but management argued today that little has changed beneath it with many factors negatively impacting organic growth being only temporary. Meanwhile, capital deployment remains very strong as the company is on track for a record year of deals. We believe M&A has been the most important driver of value creation at CSU historically (over organic growth) and therefore see significant value being created at this time, which contrasts with the current share price,” said Mr. Dubreuil.
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland raised his EQB Inc. (EQB-T) target to $136 from $123, keeping a “sector perform” rating. Average: $132.86.
“Ahead of 3Q26, we are updating our EQB estimates to reflect adjusted revenue assumptions from PC Financial following further conversations with management, evolving economic conditions and updated NCIB activity,” he said. “This is the first quarter of results following the PC Financial acquisition, which closed on July 1, and there will be one month of earnings contribution.
“We believe operating conditions in EQB’s legacy businesses remain challenging, while the shares have benefited from meaningful technical demand. We estimate EQB’s NCIB and Loblaw’s ASPP together represented 11.5 per cent of total trading volume from January 6 through July 31. Based on purchases of 8,000 shares per trading day through July 31, we estimate Loblaw has 12 months of remaining capacity (at an 8,000 share per-day pace), subject to the lower of 10.6 million shares and 24.9-per-cent ownership.”
* In response to a second-quarter beat and guidance raise, National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen moved his Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) target to $145 from $144, which is the current average on the Street, keeping an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $150 from $129 with a “buy” rating, Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $150 from $140 with a “sector outperform” rating, ATB Cormark’s Jeff Fenwick to $165 from $146 with an “outperform” rating, Raymond James’ Steve Hansen to $150 from $142 with a “strong buy” rating, RBC’s James McGarragle to $156 from $150 with an “outperform” rating and TD Cowen’s Tim James to $151 from $142 with a “buy” rating.
“We see multiple growth drivers for the company in the coming years that underpins our positive thesis: (1) As the largest aviation provider into Canada’s North and other remote areas, EIC is ideally positioned to see growth from Canada’s investment in defence and other infrastructure in the North; (2) We still see the potential for new surveillance and other defence-related contracts for the company’s PAL Aerospace subsidiary both in Canada and globally; (3) The outlook for revenue growth in the company’s Manufacturing businesses is improving, especially for matting in both the U.S. and Canada; (4) EIC’s balance sheet is positioned for additional M&A and/or organic capital investments,” said Mr. Doerksen.
* RBC’s Maurice Choy increased his Hydro One Ltd. (H-T) target to $60 from $58 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $57.71.
“With a new CEO in place and backed by a stronger-than-expected Q2/26 results, the foundational elements that have made Hydro One a premium- valued regulated utility remain intact. We continue to see the company positioned to deliver a sector-leading rate base CAGR post 2027, although the regulatory uncertainty relating to its upcoming JRAP for 2028-2032 (amid an affordability- minded stakeholder group) and its equity requirement to fund future growth remain top of mind. Marrying these elements with the stock’s relative valuation, we remain neutral on the stock and look forward to clarity emerging over the coming quarters,” said Mr. Choy.
* Seeing its valuation premium increase as its Koné Gold Project in Côte d’Ivoire “continues to de-risk,” National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé bumped his target for Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T) to $22 from $20 with an “outperform” rating, while Beacon Securities’ Bereket Berhe raised his target to $21.50 from $18 with a “buy” rating. The average is $19.47.
“We now apply a premium multiple to Endeavour Mining on EBITDA as well (premium to NAV previously already applied), to reflect the jurisdictional premium we believe the market is willing to ascribe to Montage, alongside the continued de-risking of Koné as the project advances toward first gold in Q4/26,” said Mr. Sidibé.
* Scotia Capital’s Kevin Fisk raised his Parex Resources Inc. (PXT-T) by $1 to $30 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $29.
“We believe there is a positive read-through for PXT from last week’s announcement that Maurel & Prom (MAU-FR; not covered) will acquire GTE’s South American assets. The transaction multiples from this deal are meaningfully above PXT’s current valuation; however, this is partly attributable to the strong growth outlook for GTE’s Ecuadorian assets. In addition, the premium transaction multiples could be related to MAU’s strategic priorities and lower cost of capital as the company is a 72-per-cent-owned subsidiary of Indonesia’s national energy company. After adjusting for these factors, we believe the transaction implies 35-per-cent upside to PXT’s current share price. More broadly, MAU’s expansion of its Colombian footprint is an indicator of growing interest in Colombian oil assets, which is likely aided by the recent election of a new president who is in favour of oil and gas development. In our view, improving Colombian sentiment and the positive valuation data points are a clear positive for PXT,” said Mr. Fisk.
* RBC’s Christopher Dendrinos ut his Westport Fuel Systems Inc. (WPRT-Q, WPRT-T) target to US$1 from US$1.75 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is US$4.32.
" Focus remains on the liquidity and funding as WPRT works on managing its cash flows and growth. In the quarter, the company raised $10-million through a private placement and this helped keep the cash balance flat quarter-over-quarter. Holders have the right to exercise an additional $10-million warrants, which would provide additional liquidity, but shares are currently trading below the exercise price. Mgmt is currently evaluating additional liquidity options, which we believe will be needed to support operations next year."