Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
As third-quarter earnings season for Canadian banks approaches, TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca warns “a return to normal (down from current peak performance) in operating leverage and revenue growth (especially CMRR), rather than a credit cycle, will pressure multiples.”
In a client report released before the bell, he reaffirmed his view that banks are “less cyclical than in prior years,” however he now sees “a moderation in operating leverage, reflecting moderation in CMRR [Capital Markets-Related Revenue] growth and flat NIMs in 2028″ leading to “pedestrian EPS growth and bring down bank multiples to the high end of the new normal 15.0 times.”
“In prior periods of elevated bank valuations, we typically have performed stress tests that contemplate where credit losses might derail earnings growth (or worse, threaten capital positions),” he said. “We believe banks are less exposed to the credit cycles. That leads us to ask: if credit cycles are not as pronounced as before and do not hurt earnings as much, what can cause multiples to stop expanding, or even contract? Our answer: moderating operating leverage and earnings growth.
“We model 2028E as the growth normalization year. We believe that the slowdown in PTPP growth is enough to challenge elevated multiples, without a decline in PTPP or worsening credit. We model CMRR growth and NIM expansion slowing to 0 per cent from the exceedingly strong levels of 2025-2026E, sub 1-per-cent operating leverage in 2028E, from 4.4 per cent in 2025. Note that we are only calling for a plateau in growth, not for a collapse (or even a mild decline) in revenue.”
Mr. Mendonca sees restructuring charges and M&A activity presenting “upside risks” in his investing thesis.
“If we have it right that revenue growth slows from currently elevated levels, it’s possible that banks could front-load efficiency investments in the form of restructuring charges,” he explained. “That would hurt near-term book value growth, but reduce expense growth as revenue growth slows, supporting operating leverage, PTPP and growth. Banks could also deploy excess capital into M&A to boost top-line growth and support EPS growth.”
For investors, he warned “the valuation cycle can end before the earnings cycle does.”
“We continue to forecast EPS growth, improving loan growth and benign credit,” he said “However, those outcomes may not prevent negative stock returns if operating leverage normalizes and investors become less willing to capitalize current earnings at historically elevated multiples. The issue is not necessarily that earnings decline. It is that earnings growth may no longer be strong enough to sustain the current valuation. We are essentially making the “Second Derivative” argument and solid, but slowing growth, can compresses multiples.
With an update to his valuation period, Mr. Mendonca refreshed the target prices for stocks in his coverage universe. His changes are:
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “buy”) to $263 from $239. The average on the Street is $231.54.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “hold”) to $124 from $113. Average: $116.13.
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “buy”) to $175 from $163. Average: $158.06.
- National Bank of Canada (NA-T, “hold”) to $227 from $202. Average: $209.17.
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “buy”) to $307 from $272. Average: $281.50.
“We are sticking with our three BUY rated banks – BMO, RY and CIBC. We continue to believe fundamentals are strong across the group and will appear so during Q3/26 reporting season. We continue to see a market that simply wants to buy the banks. Signs of moderating growth as laid out in this report could cause us to take a more selective approach, all else equal,” Mr. Mendonca concluded.
Raymond James analyst Stephen Boland also updated his forecast and target prices for Canada’s Big 6 banks, noting they continue to trade near the upper end of their historical valuation range at 16.4 times forward earnings, well above the five-year average of 11.2 times.
“While valuations appear demanding relative to history, strong near-term earnings momentum and structural improvements in earnings quality support a higher valuation framework,” said Mr. Boland. “Resilient fee-based earnings and modest NIM expansion should support near-term results, with further upside from credit normalization and potential performing provision releases. Longer term, AI-driven productivity should support structural efficiency gains, while $74 billion of excess capital provides capacity for continued shareholder returns and M&A. We believe the group warrants a more durable 13.0-16.0 times average forward P/E range, with the current earnings outlook warranting a multiple toward the upper end of that range.
”We expect U.S. banking fundamentals to outperform those in Canada, supported by stronger economic conditions, a more favourable NIM environment, and healthier loan growth. We believe the key themes for the quarter include commentary regarding the deployment of excess capital, Canadian retail credit trends, and the outlook for Canadian commercial loan growth."
Mr. Boland’s new targets are:
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “outperform”) to $268 from $233.50. The average on the Street is $231.54.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “outperform”) to $137 from $121. Average: $116.13.
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “market perform”) to $173.50 from $155.50. Average: $158.06.
- National Bank of Canada (NA-T, “market perform”) to $226.50 from $203. Average: $209.17.
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “market perform”) to $306 from $270.50. Average: $281.50.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T, “outperform”) to $180 from $155. Average: $160.56.
“We continue to highlight BMO as our top pick, reflecting its greater exposure to commercial lending and the acceleration of U.S. loan growth following the completion of its U.S. restructuring program,” he said.
“We are also positive on TD, as we expect its U.S. banking segment to return to sequential loan growth for the first time since 1Q25. In addition, AML remediation spending is expected to moderate through the back half of FY26, supporting further earnings growth. BNS also remains attractive on valuation, with its discount to peers appearing increasingly difficult to justify as management progresses toward a higher-quality, lower-risk earnings mix.”
Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier thinks “management’s disciplined approach is paying off” for Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T).
On Tuesday, shares of the Mississauga-based transportation company jumped 8.6 per cent after it reported revenue of $275.8-million, up 15.8 per cent year-over-year and ahead of the Street’s expectation of $261.5-million. Adjusted earnings of 67 cents per share was a decline from $1.02 a year ago and below the consensus estimate of 79 cents.
“While CJT shares were broadly flat year to date ahead of the print, the positive reaction reflects disciplined execution,” he said. “Domestic demand remains resilient, MD-11 tailwinds were extended through 4Q26, and the One Fleet strategy continues to improve revenue quality and asset utilization. While the new pilot agreement created near-term pressure, productivity gains and repricing should mitigate the impact. We expect CJT to remain disciplined on capital deployment while pursuing accretive opportunities.”
Mr. Poirier thinks the company’s One Fleet operating approach and strategy, which was initially unveiled in 2021 “to capture additional e-commerce volumes and international air freight opportunities through an expanded fleet,” has helped Cargojet improve yields and quality.
“CJT’s One Fleet strategy improved aircraft utilization, yields and revenue quality without incremental capex, with cargo revenue per block hour up 8 per cent year-over-year,“ he said. ”Despite deploying its fleet more intensively across its segments, CJT maintained an industry-leading 99.2 per cent on-time performance.
“Pilot agreement renewal. The new five-year agreement includes a 26-per-cent initial wage increase followed by four annual 5-per-cent increases, bringing compensation closer to industry standards. The additional monthly workday drives an immediate 6.5-perf-cent productivity uplift, while one fewer training day counted as a workday each year should generate incremental gains and reduce overtime. CJT also intends to recover the cost through repricing; we view this as achievable given its premium service—’the best steakhouse in the city’ should no longer charge ‘Keg pricing.’”
After raising his 2026 and 2027 EPS projections to $3.27 and $4.70, respectively, from $3.13 and $4.48, Mr. Poirier increased his target for Cargojet shares to $135 from $126, keeping a “buy” rating. The average target on the Street is $116.77.
Others making target revisions include:
* ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray to $120 from $110 with an “outperform” rating.
“CJT delivered a solid quarter with strength on the Domestic network and increasing Charter activity, in part due to the grounding of the MD-11, offsetting softer ACMI-based activity. Revenue per block hour continues to trend higher with improving revenue quality reaching another record this quarter. We expect this trend, along with stronger asset utilization, to support margin and ROIC trends, particularly with management turning increasingly disciplined around capital deployment,” said Mr. Murray.
* Acumen Capital’s Nick Corcoran to $120 from $115 with a “buy” rating.
“We view the Q2/26 results as positive. Management has been able to optimize the domestic network and continues to expand international flying,” he said.
* Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $125 from $120 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“Our estimates have increased following a strong Q2 beat and positive management commentary around growth, margins, and ROIC for the near, medium, and longer terms, respectively. We think CJT is gradually emerging from the show-me box as the company is executing on growth once again along with positive FCF generation, despite lapping tough charter comps (ACMI and China) and facing global uncertainties. The benefits of the One Fleet strategy are becoming more evident, while CJT’s flexible business model is opening the door to new international growth opportunities, a few of which have already come to fruition and more should ensue over time. Yet, valuation remains quite attractive,” said Mr. Gupta.
* TD Cowen’s Tim James to $127 from $118 with a “buy” rating.
“Q2 demonstrates resilience of Domestic network and Charter strength. New pilot agreement and revenue trends suggest higher than previously forecast costs offset by stronger-than-expected revenue going forward. We view Cargojet’s low valuation as reflecting higher-than-reality economic/trade risk without reflecting improving comps, long-term contracts & proven business model,” said Mr. James.
* National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $112 from $109 with an “outperform” rating.
“Domestic air cargo demand remains steady for Cargojet and the company is experiencing a revenue growth tailwind from scheduled charter service to LATAM and Caribbean countries that ramped early this year with opportunities for additional charter routes emerging,” said Mr. Doerksen. “We are also more optimistic Cargojet’s flying for key ACMI customer DHL will inflect more positively later in 2026 and into 2027. With growth capex expected to be modest this year and next, we also see solid free cash flow for the company, which will support further de-leveraging as well as the NCIB.
“Valuation remains inexpensive relative to the rest of our transportation coverage universe, with the stock currently trading at 6.4 times EV/EBITDA based on our 2026 forecast and 6.3 times on 2027, which is well below the long-term historical forward average for the stock at 10.3x and also below the post-COVID average (since 2022) of 7.9 times. CJT shares are also trading at a discount to the Package & Courier peer group, which trades at 8.3 times EV/EBITDA on 2026 estimates and 7.8 times on 2027.”
National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar has “cautious optimism” for a second-half improvement for Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET-T) following a quarterly earnings beat driven largely by asset sales.
“While the pet industry has historically been characterized by stable growth, we believe the current pressured backdrop (tepid consumer and heightened industry competition, etc.) is unfavourable for premium-priced retailers,” he said. “We look for signs of stabilizing performance in quarters ahead.”
Shares of the Markham, Ont.-based retailer surged 9.3 per cent on Tuesday after it reported second-quarter earnings per share of 41 cents, a gain of 3 cents from the same period a year earlier and ahead of the estimates of both Mr. Shreedhar and the Street (36 cents and 35 cents, respectively. However, same-store sales growth declined 0.2 per cent, versus a gain of 2.6 per cent a year ago and missing the analyst’s estimate of positive 0.4 per cent.
“Q2/26 results were slightly positive. System-wide sales, sssg and revenue were broadly in line,” he noted. " EBITDA and EPS were above expectations largely due to gain on sale of assets for re-franchised stores (we estimate 4.5 cents to EPS). 2026 guidance was reiterated."
Mr. Shreedhar said he sees the results to “be constructive,” while also emphasizing Pet Value is likely to ”trade at a discounted valuation until it delivers consistent growth (sssg and earnings)."
“We are optimistic that H2/26 will see progress; however, given prior missteps, we aim to monitor execution,” he added. “We acknowledge that PET has good valuation and financial metrics, creating an attractive set-up for patient investors.
“Unchanged 2026 guidance (52-week comparable basis) is: (i) Revenue growth of 2–4 per cent (NBCCM is 3.1 per cent), 40 store openings (NBCCM is 36), flat to 2-per-cent sssg (NBCCM is 0.3 per cent) and higher wholesale penetration; (ii) Adj. EBITDA percentage of 21 per cent (NBCCM is 21.2 per cent); (iii) flattish adj. EPS year-over-year (NBCCM is 1.3 per cent); and (iv) $20-million in net capex.”
The analyst “slightly” increased his EPS estimates to $1.60 from $1.58 for 2026 and $1.80 from $1.77 for 2027.
That led him to raise his target for Pet Valu shares to $23 from $22, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average is $24.44.
Elsewhere, Raymond James’ Michael Glen downgraded Pet Valu to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $23 target, up from $21.
“Despite current headwinds, we do see resilience in the model and believe that PET remains a well-run company. Visibility is limited in the near-term, and investors purchasing stock at these levels will need to do so with a long-term view,” he said.
Meanwhile, TD Cowen’s Cheryl Zhang raised her target to $24 from $22 with a “buy” rating.
“Shares were up 9 per cent [Tuesday] on improved earnings as PET’s internal initiatives offset value-seeking behaviour and higher fuel costs,” Ms. Zhang said. “We maintain BUY given the favourable long-term growth thesis and the attractive risk-reward positioning (12.2 times NTM [next 12-month] consensus EPS). For the shares to re-rate further, we would look for stronger SSSG trends in 2H/26 alongside continued execution on profitability.”
Emphasizing it has historically taken investors “a while” to appreciate NFI Group Inc.’s (NFI-T) results, Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman said he’s “gaining increasing confidence that the company can reach its potential.”
“Shares are flat following a beat and raise,” he noted. “But it fits a recent pattern where investors are initially underwhelmed by the results only for shares to rise by double digits over the next few months. EBITDA beat by $12 million and guidance was raised by $10 million at the midpoint. Some might nitpick that the beat/raise was supported by one-time Aftermarket bump from the World Cup. But this misses the broader point of a turnaround/execution story that is gaining momentum: 2Q was the 4th clean quarter in a row.”
On Aug. 6, the Winnipeg-based bus manufacturer reported second-quarter sales and adjusted earnings per share of $1.03-billion and 23 cents, topping the Street’s expectation of $966-million and 23 cents. It also raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance by 3 per cent, or $10-million at the midpoint, to $385-415-million (from $370-$410-million), which Mr. Goldman noted is “roughly the same dollar amount as the beat.”
“We can debate whether the guide is conservative,” he said in a client note titled Slow and Steady. “There are a number of puts and takes – aftermarket outperformance in 1H due to the World Cup, seasonally slower 3Q, tough comps in 4Q – but the guide implies incremental margins of approximately 2 per cent in 2H vs. 35 per cent in 1H and historicals of 20 per cent. For context, this was the first time NFI raised guidance since November 2023, which signals at least some confidence in underlying operating performance. The more measured approach is the right tack, in our view, as it increases likelihood of meeting expectations and extending the streak of consistent results. That’s key for a company that is still under-owned by institutional investors given a spotty track record until recently and elevated leverage (although improving: down to 2.8 times from 3.5 times last quarter).
“We estimate midcycle earnings power is closer to $500-million vs. LTM [last 12-month] EBITDA of $390 million. Assuming NFI re-rates to 8.5 times EV/EBITDA, in-line with the company’s 10-year average, and there is no further deleveraging, that would imply a share price of $38/share on mid-cycle EBITDA.”
Reaffirming his “sector outperform” rating for NFI shares, Mr. Goldman increased his target to $28.50 from $27. The average is now $27.88.
“We see room for more positive earnings revisions as the execution story is gaining traction (there was no mention of seats in the PR) and LTM deliveries are still 15 per cent below 2019 levels,” he added. ”We also see room for multiple expansion as NFI is under-owned among institutional investors and the fourth clean quarter in a row makes this a much more investable name. Continued deleveraging is a near-term catalyst: net debt to EBITDA (including leases and converts) decreased to 2.8 times from 3.5 times."
While its second-quarter results were mixed versus his expectations, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds sees box-office momentum continuing to build and “getting its much-needed jolt” for Cineplex Inc. (CGX-T).
“We believe a strengthened theatrical release window, added film supply from streaming platforms and still-untapped growth opportunities for Cineplex Media, location-based entertainment (LBE) and Scene+ have bolstered Cineplex earnings power,” he said.
“While Cineplex is not immune to economic headwinds and further U.S. studio consolidation could have negative medium-term implications for the release slate, we continue to see value in the shares at current levels given: (i) the strong box office outlook for H2/26 and 2027 relative to recent years; (ii) Cineplex’s diversified and differentiated asset mix and stronger competitive position relative to peers; and (iii) the potential for enhanced capital returns alongside strategic optionality.”
Shares of the entertainment company slid 5.3 per cent on Tuesday after revenue of $383.7-million for its second quarter, up 9.8 per cent year-over-year and in line with expectations. However, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization after leases (EBITDAaL) of $40.8-million missed his estimate of $49.2-million, which he attributed to “(i) a higher film cost percentage of 55.9 per cent due to box office performance and mix; (ii) transitional costs related to a change in the LTIP ($6-million to be incurred in 2026); (iii) new partner-related marketing costs within the Scene+ JV; and (iv) lower LBE margins reflecting lower higher-margin amusement revenues due to the FIFA World Cup.”
“While Cineplex with its many moving parts is more likely than not to be impacted by transitional/non-recurring items in any given quarter, we believe underlying operating leverage largely remains intact with both Cineplex Media revenues (up 4.4 per cent year-over-year in Q2/26) and LBE revenues (down 3.7 per cent year-over-year) yet to fire on all cylinders given lingering macro headwinds (economic, consumer spending shifts),” added Mr. McReynolds.
“Box office momentum continues to build. July box office of $72.6-million was flat year-over-year against a tough comp, while August is off to a record start with box office revenues to-date almost matching all of August a year ago. Management sees domestic box office growth now tracking to the high-end of initial industry forecasts of up 10-15 per cent for 2026 (US$10-billion in revenues). Other outlook notables: (i) management expects continued YoY growth from Cineplex Media in H2/26 despite a still challenged advertising market; (ii) while the LBE same-store revenue decline of 3.4 per cent year-over-year in Q2/26 (excluding 2024 new builds) was in line with the industry, management expects seasonally stronger performance in H2/26 with easing macro headwinds, strategic marketing and operational efficiencies eventually giving way to improvement; and (iii) management expects to hit its 2.5-3.0 times target leverage range (excluding the convertibles) by Q4/26 should box office meet expectations.”
Keeping his “outperform” rating for Cineplex shares, Mr. McReynolds raised his target by $1 to $14. The average is $13.13.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Scotia’s Maher Yaghi to $13.50 from $12 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“Cineplex delivered strong Q2 results driven by a more robust and diversified film slate, supporting higher attendance, record BPP, and record CPP. Media revenues were up slightly despite tougher year-over-year comps, while LBE results were pressured by discretionary spending headwinds and an unfavourable mix shift that weighed on margins. Encouragingly, box office momentum has continued into Q3, supported by strong performances from The Odyssey and Spider-Man, reinforcing our confidence in the recovery trajectory and CGX’s ability to translate higher attendance into earnings growth,” Mr. Yaghi said.
* National Bank’s Adam Shine bumped his target to $14 from $13.50 with an “outperform” rating.
“Ex-convertibles, leverage was 4.0 times at Q2 (4.8 times 2025, 5.5 times 2024). We’re still waiting to see if Supreme Court will hear CGX’s appeal in the matter of its online booking fee penalty which appears excessive at $39-million. CGX expects to get within targeted leverage range of 2.5-3.0 times possibly by Q4,” said Mr. Shine.
In other analyst actions:
* TD Cowen’s Derek Lessard moved his AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. (AGTF-T) to $21 from $20, keeping a “hold” rating, while Scotia’s John Zamparo raised his target to $21.50 from $20 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $24.
“Shares rose 13 per cent [on Tuesday] as AGT earned credit for a solid quarter,” said Mr. Lessard. “Healthy demand, confirmed VAP orders, PF&I margin progress, and flexible modular capex support a stronger H2 outlook, backed by exceptionally low leverage. Still, the potential for Middle East disruption clouds shipment timing and freight costs, limiting visibility despite better execution. Our HOLD rating and cautious stance are unchanged.”
* BMO’s Fadi Chamoun raised his Air Canada (AC-T) target to $37 from $30 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $26.53.
“AC’s Q2/26 results were ahead of consensus expectations on stronger cargo and passenger revenues, with continued strong bookings supporting considerable FCF outperformance,” said Mr. Chamoun. “AC’s reinstated 2026 guidance came in shy of expectations, though fuel assumptions appear conservative.”
“The announced Aeroplan transaction clearly underscores AC’s undemanding valuation, with the accompanying debt payment/SIB appearing highly accretive, namely as the company executes its expansion strategy (improving the earnings and FCF profile).”
* Maintaining “a positive outlook” on Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T) following better-than-anticipated second-quarter results. National Bank’s Shane Nagle raised his target for its shares to $75 from $70, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $64.86.
“We incorporated Q2 financial results and aligned our estimates with operator guidance (where available),” Mr. Nagle said. “We have accounted for the increased position in Lithium Royalty Corp. (now holding 8 per cent of the company), rolled our valuation multiple forward by one quarter, and have taken into account the updated attributable share of GBR’s balance sheet in our estimates. With supportive price environment (particularly for copper, potash and electricity rates) we continue to see favourable near-term support for revenue growth. Our Outperform rating remains supported by stable, long-life asset base, transitioning of the portfolio towards lower carbon-intensive commodities and leveraging in-house expertise to provide long-term exposure to future exploration success.”
* Raymond James’ Brad Sturges reduced his CT REIT (CRT.UN-T) target to $19.25 from $19.75 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $18.30.
“CTs capital investment program focuses on 4 key growth avenues, including: 1) retail intensification development projects; 2) CTC vend-in acquisitions; 3) new store developments; and 4) strategic 3rd-party acquisitions. CT remains well positioned to benefit from its strategic relationship with related-party, CTC, which can provide CT with proprietary access to a potential future acquisition and development-growth pipeline. On its 2Q26 call, CT indicated that its CTC-related vend-in acquisition pipeline that meets its investment criteria could be 10–15 properties,” said Mr. Sturges.
* ATB Cormark’s Sairam Srinivas trimmed his Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH.UN-T) target to $25 from $25.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $26.19.
“While CSH’s occupancy remained in line with Q1 (seasonal weakness), CSH expects it to accelerate toward the end of the year, enabling it to meet its 95-per-cent average occupancy target for 2026. CSH is accelerating on three fronts: organic growth from operations, stabilization of acquisitions, and incremental acquisitions and developments, all of which present a strong fundamental outlook for the stock,” said Mr. Srinivas.
* Raymond James’ Steven Li raised his Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T) target to $3,500 from $3,200 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $3,989.93.
“Maintenance organic growth at 2 per cent is the lowest since COVID days and resulted in overall organic at just 1 per cent with Altera being the main culprit. However, M&A torrid pace continued in 2Q and based on data subsequent to quarter end, 3Q M&A pace should be no different,” said Mr. Li.
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho bumped his Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) target to $145 from $135 with a “buy” rating. The average is $144.
“EIC posted a clean 2Q beat with records across key metrics and delivered a double raise—lifting 2026 EBITDA guidance to $890–920-million (from $825–875-million) and hiking the dividend 4 per cent to $2.88,” said Mr. Ho. “A&A (Canadian North, Mach2, leasing, ISR tempo) and matting drove the beat, while payout ratios fell to record lows despite the divvy raise. Balance-sheet firepower and formalized contract wins (Air Greenland, SkyAlyne FAcT) support the outlook. We raised estimates.”
* Stifel’s Cole McGill raised his target for Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T) to $21 from $18 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Ovais Habib to $20 from $19 with a “sector outperform” rating and ATB Cormark’s Nicolas Dion to $22 from $19 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $19.75.
“Montage continues to advance construction at the Koné project ahead of schedule with first gold via the oxide circuit targeted for late 4Q26,” said Mr. McGill. “To date, approximately 81 per cent of upfront capital is now committed at costs tracking in line with expectations. With the ongoing, upsized 130km Koné Project drill program and recent near-mine satellite deposit MRE expected to be scheduled, we forecast an updated LoM plan before first production that will prove as i) NAV accretive (first ten years +300kozpa?), and ii) demonstrate proof of concept for monetizing satellite upside (Petit Yao) expeditiously, a strong pillar of the competitive advantage of both jurisdiction and land package. Montage currently trades at 2028E P/CF of 6.6 times compared to intermediate peers at 4.6 times, with the market shifting from pricing in a single asset ramp to a repeatable, self perform, value uplift business model, with Koné as company builder (Didievi pathway to group +500kozpa by 2030).”
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies increased his Neo Performance Materials Inc. (NEO-T) target to $55 from $49 with a “buy” rating. The average is $55.37.
“NEO reported a 22-per-cent and 47-per-cent consensus beat on revenue and EBITDA,” said Mr. Gillies. “However, adjusted EPS was only a 4-per-cent beat. We think the stock was weak [Tuesday] because investors are calibrating their EPS (and FCF) expectations lower due to payments that need to be made to minority interest holders of Buss & Buss (which generates the bulk of Hafnium related EBITDA). We have increased 2027E EBITDA by 21 per cent to $135-million but our EPS falls 5 per cent to $1.19. ... We would be using the weakness as a chance to step in to a stock benefitting from secular growth.”
* RBC’s Keith Mackey raised his Pason Systems Inc. (PSI-T) by $1 to $17 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $16.60.
“2Q26 results were above our expectations on better margins in all divisions,” said Mr. Mackey. “The second half of 2026 should set up nicely for Pason’s drilling business given its operating leverage to improving industry rig counts. Despite this dynamic, PSI shares trade at a narrower-than-usual premium to land drillers. Progress toward achieving scale in the Completions business would be viewed favourably by the market, in our view. We raise our 2026/27 EBITDA estimates by 5 per cent/4 per cent and increase our price target.”
* Scotia Capital’s Jonathan Goldman cut his Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T) target to $85 from $93 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $91.50.
“Reasons for the 2Q miss appear temporary: (1) unusually wet spring weather in Texas, which delayed project execution (management said ex Texas impact, Poles organic growth would have been closer to 4-5 per cent; there is a potential partial catch-up in 2H); (2) temporary lost production time during equipment changeover related to Locweld capacity expansion (which is “pretty much behind us”); and (3) margin pressure related to site-specific environmental and maintenance costs, inefficiencies from Locweld ramp, and higher fuel costs (ex one-timers, margins would have been closer to 17.5 per cent; annual contractual resets should kick-in during the first six months of 2027)," said Mr. Goldman.
“There were also a couple of positive surprises in the quarter, namely higher commercial volumes in Ties offsetting lower Class 1 volumes; and a new Pole network optimization program expected to improve annual profitability by $10 million to $12 million starting in 2027. Combined with the previously announced Ties network optimization, this should enable the company to hit the high-end of its 3-year margin target range of 17.5 per cent to 18.5 per cent. The company also secured a customer contract for 1/3 of Locweld production capacity for the next 10 years.”