Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li thinks Dollarama Inc.’s (DOL-T) “solid” second-quarter fiscal 2027 results and raise to its full-year same-store sales growth guidance raise reflects “resilient demand, supported by DOL’s compelling value proposition, as verified by our latest pricing survey.”
“SSSG momentum is continuing in 3Q. LATAM earnings growth remains strong (40 per cent),” he added. “We expect EPS and FCF growth to accelerate next year, driven by moderating losses in Australia, Mexico scaling and reaching EBITDA breakeven, potential launch of a $6 price point in Canada, and completion of the Western Canada logistics hub.”
On Wednesday, shares of the Montreal-based discount retailer jumped 5.5 per cent after it quarterly earnings per share of $1.29, exceeding both Mr. Li’s $1.25 estimate and the consensus projection of $1.26. The beat was driven by domestic comparable store sales growth of 5.4 per cent, blowing past expectations (4.0 per cent and 4.3 per cent, respectively) alongside “strong” traffic growth of 3.7 per cent (versus Mr. Li’s 2.5-per-cent forecast), a slight sequential acceleration from 3.5 per cent in the last quarter."
“This was driven by continued strong demand for both consumables and general merchandise, as consumers stay attracted to DOL’s value proposition at a time when there is continued pressure on household budgets,” he said in a client report. “Demand for seasonal (summer) products was slightly favourable vs a year ago, while toys continue to perform exceptionally well.
“Given the 1H performance, the full-year comp guide was increased to 4.0–4.5 per cent from 3.0– 4.0 per cent. Economic conditions remain challenging given the ongoing trade war and elevated living costs, which prompted management to embed a prudent view for the balance of the year despite the solid 1H. This is in line with consensus of 4.4 per cent. We estimate the high end of its revised guidance implies 3.5 per cent in 2H vs 5.5 per cent in 1H, and that there appears to be some conservatism embedded in the guidance. Assuming a low-single-digit increase in average selling price and traffic remaining above 3 per cent, we estimate this could support SSSG of at least 5 per cent in 2H.”
Mr. Li did warn second-half gross margin will start to reflect higher costs brought on by inflation increases to raw materials and oil, however he emphasized “DOL remains comfortable given its mitigation measures and maintained its 45.0–45.5-per-cent guidance.”
“While existing price points could mitigate higher costs in the near term, we still believe there is a high likelihood of a $6 price point launch next year,” he added.
“LATAM earnings at Dollarcity grew 40 per cent year-over-year, helped by strong comp sales, new stores and margin expansion. Mexico start-up losses of $6-million were in line and should start to moderate in 4Q, with breakeven EBITDA next year. Australia integration remains on track, with the transition to lower priced items expected to increase losses in 2H. We are forecasting net losses of $70-million this year. ”
While increasing his revenue and earnings projections through fiscal 2028, Mr. Li reduced his target for Dollarama shares to $210 from $215, maintaining a “buy” rating. The average target on the Street is $218.50.
“We value DOL based on a sum of the parts. This includes $52 per share (DCF) for International (LATAM, Mexico and Australia),” he explained. “Following the recent pullback, the implied forward P/E on Canada is 25 times (in line with DOL’s average). Our $210 target (was $215) is based on 28-times two-year forward Canada EPS, which we believe is well-supported by low-teens EPS growth and investor preference for high-quality defensive names with consistent results.”
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* RBC’s Irene Nattel to $225 from $223 with an “outperform” rating.
" Strong Q2/F27 results and a constructive post-call review reinforce our view of DOL as a core portfolio holding and best idea, particularly given recent sell-off. Q2 SSS up 5.4 per cent and EPS $1.29 (up 11 per cent year-over-year) exceeded forecast, F27 guidance nudged higher on SSS (4.0–4.5 per cent) and net new stores (65–75). Sector-leading growth trajectory, strong FCF, consistent return of capital and multi-geography long-term growth platform all supportive of premium valuation," said Ms. Nattel.
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $217 from $227 with a “buy” rating.
“We see a return to its historical growth rate in F2028, as Mexico laps initial investments on a path to break-even in F2028, Australia starts to reduce material transition losses of F2027, LATAM delivers outsized growth, and Canada maintains its stable growth contribution. As a return to mid-teen EPS growth gains visibility, we anticipate it to be a catalyst for Dollarama’s share price,” said Mr. Morrison.
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $210 from $209 with an “outperform” rating.
Q2/F27 was strong with a beat on sssg, EBITDA and EPS; Canada F2027 guidance was increased, which we believe still reflects conservatism," said Mr. Shreedhar.
“We hold a positive view on DOL reflecting a stable, high return on capital international growth story supported by strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet and resilient sales performance.”
BCE Inc.’s (BCE-T) Bell AI Fabric represents a “strong value-creation opportunity overlooked by the market,” according to Desjardins Securities analyst Jerome Dubreuil.
“BCE’s stock reaction in the last two days reinforces our view that investors underestimate the value-creation potential of Bell AI Fabric,” he said. “We believe powered shells, for which BCE has now secured additional access, have become more constrained than many other significant components of AI and therefore expect the 900MW allocation to turn into long-term contracts for BCE.
“On top of the challenges facing Canadian telecom, the market appears focused on long lead times for power-generation equipment and uncertainty about the financing of the $5-billion-plus project. That said, we have taken the respective impact of these dynamics into account in our valuation of the initiative, and understand these potential challenges are on track to be addressed soon. This week’s developments reinforce our conviction regarding BCE’s top spot in our Canadian telecommunications pecking order.”
Mr. Dubreuil thinks the modest reaction to Monday’s announcement of a non-binding memorandum of understanding to expand Bell AI Fabric in Saskatchewan with the phased development of up to 900 megawatts (MW) of additional capacity stems from the lack of a guidance increase, but he emphasized it “does not mean that the probability/time-weighted impact of the deal is neutral.”
“However, the stock is down 3 per cent since the announcement, which we believe creates a compelling buying opportunity,” he added. “Overall, we see a strong probability that BCE will execute on the additional 900MW of capacity in the coming years at a targeted 20-per-cent IRR [internal rate of return] and $1.2-billion of potential additional recurring adjusted EBITDA.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for BCE shares, Mr. Dubreuil increased his target to $43 from $41. The average is $37.25.
“We are adding $5/share related to the 900MW announcement from this week (further explained in the report) to our valuation, offset by the removal of the $3/share we previously underwrote for unannounced power allocation/sales,” he explained. “We now conservatively attribute zero value to potential additional power-allocation opportunities. Our NAV now includes $10/share in datacentre value for 1,273MW of power.”
“BCE’s stable earnings are now being complemented with initiatives expected to deliver higher IRRs than in the recent past, which is not well reflected in the valuation.”
Ventum Capital Markets analyst Taylor Combaluzier initiated coverage of Silver X Mining Corp. (AGX-X) with a “buy” recommendation, believing the ramp-up at its 100-per-cent-owned Nueva Recuperada operations in Peru have reached an inflection point and are not yet properly priced in to its shares.
“With nominal capacity now demonstrated at the Nueva Recuperada plant, we believe H1/26 marks the turn toward 1,100 tons per day by Q1/27 and the broader 3,000 tpd district plan,” he said.
“Multiple growth pillars provide a visible path to re-rating. Beyond the current ramp, the planned Tangana and Nueva Recuperada expansions underpin the base development plan, while Red Silver, Pampas, and Ccasahuasi provide additional upside. Ongoing drilling at Blenda Rubia could further expand its contribution within the existing mine plan.”
Mr. Combaluzier thinks the Vancouver-based company’s “silver-dominant revenue mix offers leveraged exposure” for investors, while its “strong” free cash flow funds growth “without dilution.”
“Silver represents 65 per cent of our life-of-mine revenue, with additional exposure to zinc, lead and gold, providing leveraged precious-metals exposure alongside meaningful base-metal credits,” he said.
“We forecast robust FCF ahead of the main CAPEX cycle, providing internally generated capital to advance the district while reducing reliance on external equity.”
The analyst set a target of $1.60, implying 100.0-per-cent upside. The average is $1.58.
“AGX trades at a discount to peers on P/NAV and EV/EBITDA; we see continued delivery on the production ramp and broader development plan as key drivers to closing this valuation gap,” said Mr. Combaluzier.
“Political and regional tailwinds add optionality. A more mining-friendly administration provides a constructive backdrop for project advancement, while Nueva Recuperada’s land package largely surrounds Endeavour Silver’s (EDR-TSX, Not Covered) Kolpa operation, creating longer-term strategic optionality.”
Ventum Capital Markets analyst Rob Goff applauded Calian Group Ltd.’s (CGY-T) deal to form a partnership with Ukrainian technology and defence company SkyFall that will focus on drone-enabled defence training, seeing the Ottawa-based consulting firm “building the scale and capabilities to pursue larger defence programs.”
“We are encouraged by management’s clearly articulated strategy of expanding Calian’s scale and capabilities through both organic investment and acquisitions,” he said. “Initiatives such as the SkyFall partnership, Raytheon partnership, and the Canadian Arctic Maritime Security Consortium (CAMSC), alongside the Galaxy Broadband acquisition, strengthen Calian’s ability to pursue larger and more complex defence contracts.”
Following Wednesday’s announcement of the deal, which meant to “advance unmanned systems training and operational readiness for Canada, the United Kingdom (UK), NATO and allied forces,” Mr. Goff emphasized it brings “specialized drone expertise to Calian’s existing defence training platform, combining Calian’s established military training and simulation capabilities with SkyFall’s current operational experience in unmanned systems.”
“SkyFall will effectively provide Calian with specialized knowledge around drone operations, which Calian can incorporate into its broader military training offering as unmanned systems become increasingly important to NATO training and operational readiness,” he added.
“SkyFall brings meaningful operational experience. SkyFall Academy is certified by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence and has trained more than 30,000 Ukrainian military personnel over the past three years. The partnership therefore provides Calian with access to training practices and operational knowledge developed through Ukraine’s experience with rapidly evolving drone technologies and countermeasures.”
The analyst also thinks the partnership creates “an opportunity to extend the capability across Calian’s existing customer base.”
“Calian can leverage its established relationships and training infrastructure across the Canadian Armed Forces, British Army, NATO and other allied forces to introduce the specialized unmanned systems training capability,” he said. “While relatively specialized today, we believe the partnership could support incremental international defence training opportunities as allied militaries increase their focus on drone-enabled operations and leverage Ukraine’s expertise in countermeasures.
“We look to further defence contract wins and acquisitions as positive catalysts that would support our thesis for a valuation re-rating.”
Mr. Goff reaffirmed a “buy” rating and $106 target for Calian shares. The average on the Street is $104.60.
TD Cowen analyst Wayne Lam named Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T) to the firm’s “Canada Best Ideas” list on Thursday, citing the “ongoing ramp up of the Canadian flagship assets and advancement of a robust North American focused growth portfolio.”
“We view current valuation as attractive at a 20-per-cent NAV discount vs peers and see potential for EQX to serve as a core holding for investors,” he said in a client note.
“Our constructive thesis on EQX reflects the recent combination with OLA providing the pro forma company with scale from three flagship Canadian assets, a robust growth pipeline, and multiple catalysts ahead. We estimate production growing to 1.27 million ounces in 2027 (vs 907,000 ounces in FY/26) given (1) full year contribution from the OLA assets, (2) ramp up at Greenstone/ Valentine, and (3) restart of Los Filos. We view potential for EQX to serve as a core holding for investors with 75 per cent of NAV based in Canada/U.S. given increasing focus on Tier I jurisdictions.”
Mr. Lam thinks investors are “remaining cautious” on the Vancouver-based company, pointing to concerns around “ongoing ramp up of the Canadian assets, particularly at Valentine, which has lagged vs plan since start up in late-2025.”
“However, we view expectations having been scaled back particularly on processed grades vs plan given mining dilution challenges and reconciliation to date,” he said. “As well, we continue to anticipate investor focus on grades and recoveries at Greenstone with the latter having lagged vs design. However, in the context of a larger, diversified portfolio with production surpassing 1 Moz+ annually, we view the impact of these risks as better mitigated across the broader portfolio.
“Catalysts and milestones to watch: We anticipate a number of important catalysts ahead as the growth pipeline continues to advance forward. This includes completion of the US-FAST 41 permitting process at Castle Mountain this year, providing another shovel ready project. As well, we model a restart of operations at Los Filos in Q4/26 following signed land access agreements with the three Ejido communities. Lastly, we view focus on ramp up of construction on the South Railroad project and Valentine Phase 2, which represent key near-term growth drivers.”
Mr. Lam raised his target for Equinox shares to $20 from $18, maintaining a “buy” rating. The average is $22.19.
“Our rating is based on large scale production based in Canada with a deep project pipeline. With significant production via Canada/U.S. operations, we view EQX as a potential go-to name for investors looking for exposure to scale and growth in Tier 1 jurisdictions,” he concluded.
In a separate note, analyst Tim James named Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T) as his “Canada Best Idea” and reaffirmed a “buy” rating and $128 target, which exceeds the $121.85 average on the Street.
“We believe the drivers of past share price and valuation pressure are becoming less relevant and that the historically low valuation fails to reflect the business resiliency and earnings upside. We believe an eventual return to ACMI revenue growth, improved aircraft utilization and new ACMI/Charter agreements could provide catalysts,” said Mr. James.
TD Cowen analyst John Mould sees Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) as “well-positioned to benefit from rising electricity demand across core markets (including Alberta and several U.S. regions).”
“We believe CPX has built a strong track record of gas-fired M&A where it can add value (recontracting, optimization),” he added. “CPX’s pullback (down 22 per cent since early July) offers an attractive entry point.”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Mould named the Edmonton-based independent power generator as his “top pick in Canadian Power & Utilities” and readdirmed his “buy” recommendation, which he said is “supported by a growing need for reliable electricity in the company’s core markets, strong competitive positioning in Alberta’s wholesale power market, & CPX’s track record of growth.”
“CPX shares are off 22 per cent since early July, making it the worst-performing equity in Canadian power & utilities over that time horizon,” he said. “Finalizing the Meta offtake (July 8) was an anticipated milestone for CPX; we continue to view growing demand for electricity across its fleet (Alberta, PJM, recontracting) as a tailwind for the stock. Its valuation (9.4 times TEV/consensus forward EBITDA est.) has declined by 1.9 times since the end of June, vs. declines of 1.0 times and 0.6 times for Canadian IPP and U.S. IPP peers, respectively.”
“Catalysts & milestones to watch: We anticipate an update on the finalization of AESO’s Phase 2A for large loads this fall. Though not part of the Phase 2A process, we would see clarity regarding resolving MSSC constraints at Genesee as a positive - unlocking ~400 MW of existing supply at Alberta’s most efficient gas-fired plant could support speed to power for large loads. We acknowledge regulatory uncertainty in PJM, but CPX’s gas-fired assets in that market (18 per cent of net capacity) give it exposure to a key U.S. region for large load growth (BRA and RBP auction results in Dec. 2026). CPX could also conclude recontracting initiatives at existing sites or finalize accretive M&A (neither in our estimates).”
Mr. Mould has a target of $80 for Capital Power shares, which sits under the $83.19 average.
“We believe our Buy rating on Capital Power is supported by a growing need for reliable electricity in its core markets, strong competitive positioning in Alberta’s wholesale power market, and CPX’s development track record. We believe the company’s repowered natural gas units at Genesee 1+2 are the most efficient combined-cycle units in Canada. CPX has also demonstrated its ability to complement its fleet with additional renewable/thermal power development projects. The company has a strong track record of acquiring midlife gas-fired assets (most recently in PJM) and adding value via recontracting or asset enhancements. We anticipate that secured growth initiatives will support CPX’s target of 2-4-per-cent annual dividend growth, further diversify its operations, and complement the company’s high-quality Alberta portfolio,” he concluded.
Elsewhere, RBC’s Maurice Choy reiterated an “outperform” rating and $80 target in a note released before the bell.
“We recently hosted investor meetings with Capital Power management, including Avik Dey (CEO), and Roy Arthur (VP, IR and Investment Partnerships). Key themes included: (1) strong market fundamentals for natural gas-fired generation, including in the U.S.; (2) upcoming policy announcements in Alberta, which could offer clarity for the advancement of large load integration projects; and (3) its continued pursuit of disciplined M&A,” said Mr. Choy.
In other analyst actions:
* Following a visit to its Skouries copper-gold mine in Greece, Stifel’s Ralph Profiti increased his Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD-T) target to $70 from $65 with a “buy” rating. The average is $62.53.
“We came away thoroughly impressed on the build-quality, state of operational-readiness, and technology-enablement achieved at Skouries during our site visit,” he said. “First copper-gold concentrate produced on September 8th reinforces our view of a near-fully derisked flowsheet through to concentrate thickening, which remains on the critical path. Stockpile coverage has been upgraded to 4.6Mt at 1.09/t Au (vs reserve grade of 0.77g/t) or seven months of processing and potentially extending high-grade feed into 2027. We believe grid connection is imminent (before end of September) with temporary diesel power generation capacity lifted to 36MWe (vs. 50MWe of connected capacity) as a contingency adequately run Skouries at 70-per-cent capacity. While on-site, the tailings conveyance chain from the filter building into the Karatza Lakkos Valley was commissioned.”
* National Bank’s Baltej Sidhu reduced his target for shares of NanoXplore Inc. (GRA-T) to $2.20 from $2.80, keeping a “sector perform” rating, following in-line fourth-quarter results and the introduction of a weaker-than-anticipated fiscal 2027 and 2028 outlook. The average target is $3.08.
“Commercial optionality could offer upside to guidance,” said Mr. Sidhu. “FY27 growth should be supported by a full-year Club Car contribution, PACCAR/Volvo volume recovery and initial commercialization of graphene powders and masterbatches. Insulating foams are most advanced, with initial sales expected in calendar 2026. Club Car’s conversion to graphene-enhanced recycled compounds is expected in early calendar 2027, while D-Series graphene is being tested in plastic films targeting a multi-billion-dollar plastic-bag market, with orders targeted for H2/27. TriboGraf is technically validated but ramping more slowly, with adoption dependent on further field trials. Looking further out, the $35-million Solutions pipeline provides visibility into FY28 growth, including two Volvo programs representing $25-million of annual revenue delayed into FY28 due to U.S. regulatory changes and a separate $10-million Volvo SMC program scheduled to begin part production.”
* Raymond James’ Daniel Magder initiated coverage of Northisle Copper and Gold Inc. (NCX-X) with an “outperform” rating and a $7.00 target. The average is $6.11.
“Northisle is advancing the 100-per-cent-owned North Island Project in British Columbia, a district-scale copper-gold porphyry project anchored by the Hushamu, Red Dog, Northwest Expo and West Goodspeed deposits. Supported by a phased development strategy, significant resource growth, a strengthened balance sheet, and favourable existing infrastructure, we believe Northisle is well positioned to advance the North Island project toward development while retaining meaningful exploration upside,” said Mr. Magder.
* ATB Cormark’s Amir Arif raised his Surge Energy Inc. (SGY-T) target to $15 from $13 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $13.13.
“We recently met with SGY Management for a desk update. The wet weather that extended into the third quarter has caused a slight lag in terms of bringing new wells online from its capital program which was expanded with Q2/26 results. While we are lowering our Q3/26 production estimates slightly (approximately 1 per cent), we believe the company remains well positioned to deliver on its full-year guidance (23.375mboe/d) and YE26 guidance (24.0mboe/d). Other key takeaways include an expected pickup in buybacks in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter, testing a new dual lateral water injection design at Hope Valley to improve oil response, another successful well at its State A multilat play in Saskatchewan, and the use of more three-way hedges to participate in higher WTI prices while still providing downside cash flow protection,” said Mr. Arif.
* ATB Cormark’s Kalvin Baim moved his Valeura Energy Inc. (VLE-T) target to $19.50 from $18.50, exceeding the $17.46 average, with an “outperform” rating.
“On September 15, before market open, Valeura announced the Suraphi oil discovery near its Manora field and the completion of a development and appraisal campaign at Jasmine. Overall, we view the release as positive. Management believes the oil demonstrated at Suraphi supports a satellite facility and is moving directly into development planning. The discovery could shift Valeura’s shortest-life asset from managed decline into a multi-pool development project by extending the life of Manora’s existing facilities and improving the development potential of the nearby Malida discovery. Coming one day after cabinet approval of the PTTEP farm-in, we believe the release is another step that shifts the story toward an organic inventory that is materially deeper than the market credits,” said Mr. Baim.