Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
TD Cowen analyst Steven Green predicts investors will punish shares of Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC-N, K-T) in response to the reduction to its 2026 and 2027 guidance due to underperformance at its La Coipa in Chile and Round Mountain in Nevada.
“The stock has underperformed the large caps by almost 11 per cent year-to-date, so we believe some of this operational under-performance was priced in, however H2/26 and 2027 are below prior expectations as well ... The ongoing share buyback should help support the stock,” he said.
After the bell on Wednesday, the Toronto-based miner announced it now expects production to come in at 1.84–1.86 million gold equivalent ounces, which is 7.5 per cent under its previous guidance of 2 million ounces for both years.
“The shortfall is concentrated at two of Kinross’ smaller operations, while Paracatu and Tasiast continue to perform well and are expected to deliver a combined 1.1 Moz in 2026,” said Mr. Green.
The reduction includes a third-quarter production of approximately 425,000 ounces, which is 16 per cent under Mr. Green’s prior estimate.
“K does however expect to continue generating strong FCF and has upped their capital return target to 50 per cent of FCF (from 40 per cent), which equates to $1.4-billion on our estimates,” he added. “They have returned $800-million to shareholders year-to-date, including $655-million through buybacks.
“We have decreased our 2026 and 2027 production forecasts by 7 per cent and 9 per cent respectively and reflected the new cost guidance. This decreases 2026 EBITDA by 10 per cent and 2027 EBITDA by 11 per cent. Our NAV/sh decreased by 3 per cent, to $28.36.
“Lower production drives cost guidance higher. K now expects 2026 cost of sales of $1,420– 1,460/oz and AISC [all-in sustaining costs] of $1,850–1,900/oz, an increase of 6 per cent & 8 per cent respectively. We now model AISC of $1,867/oz (prev. $1,778).”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for Kinross shares, Mr. Green reduced his target to US$35 from US$40. The average on the Street is US$38.43.
“Kinross has delivered very consistent and predictable results in recent years, is generating significant free cash flow and is and methodically advancing its development projects and mine-life extensions. Kinross has become a steady, predictable producer with upside potential as Great Bear continues to grow. We expect continued and growing share buybacks,” he concluded.
Elsewhere, other analysts making revisions include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Bryce Adams to $53 (Canadian) from $58 with a “buy” rating.
“The 2026–27 guidance revisions are concentrated at La Coipa and Round Mountain. At La Coipa, unprecedented winter weather impacted mining and milling rates through September, while higher copper grades and weaker recoveries from sulphide ore led to the deferral and stockpiling of copper-rich material. At Round Mountain, lower Phase S mining rates defer higher-grade ore, and weaker feed grade and recoveries result in a loss of ounces. Paracatu and Tasiast remain on guidance and are expected to deliver a combined 1moz annually. A production recovery is expected in 2028, with Phase X at Round Mountain and Curlew commencing production, and Tasiast moving into a higher grade orebody,” said Mr. Adams.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Carey MacRury to $47 (Canadian) from $52 with a “buy” rating.
* BMO’s Matthew Murphy to $48 (Canadian) from $49 with an “outperform” rating.
* Scotia’s Tanya Jakusconek to US$39 from US$41 with a “sector outperform” rating.
Slate Grocery REIT’s (SGR.U-T, SGR.UN-T) late Wednesday announcement of the suspension of its monthly cash distributions at the recommendation of its independent Special Committee is “a very negative development,” according to ATB Cormark analyst Sairam Srinivas.
Pointing to the timing of the news as well as its ongoing strategic review, he downgraded units of the Toronto-based REIT, which owns and operates U.S.-base grocery-anchored real estate, to “underperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“Given the timing of the news release, lack of commentary around the process, and the fact that the strategic review was initiated by a proposal from the third party asset manager, in combination with SGR’s investment proposition as an income play, which is now fundamentally changed with the distribution suspension, we see this update as significant and negative,” said Mr. Srinivas.
“While the fundamental thesis around the real estate has not changed, this announcement changes our view on Slate as an income play. The lack of commentary around the review, mystery around the offer price (bid made by SLAM), and the fact that this will add further pressure on the stock, makes us question the true rationale behind the announcement.”
He reduced his target to US$8 from US$13 “applying a 30-per-cent discount to last close in anticipation of a selloff).” The average is US$12.14.
ATB Cormark analyst Gavin Fairweather sees Thinkific Labs Inc.’s (THNC-T) late Wednesday announcement of a workforce reduction of 96 employees, or approximately one-third, as “transformative for the stock given the scale of the expected cash flow relative to the prevailing valuation.”
“Thinkific announced a cost structure reset that refocuses the organization toward its growing Plus business while turning its Self-Serve business into a meaningful cash cow. The size of the cost reductions will drive a step change in EBITDA beginning in Q4, with a 25-per-cent FCF margin target for C27,” he said.
In reaction to the news, Mr. Fairweather upgraded the Vancouver-based software company to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously, emphasizing its valuation was “at a modest premium to cash prior to the news.”
“The key question from our perspective relates to how the cuts will impact Self-Serve which accounts for 70 per cent of revenue,” he said. “Self-Serve can be disaggregated into two cohorts - customers which have found success on the platform and churn infrequently and earlier-stage ‘dreamers’ who churn at high rates if success is not achieved. Management noted that it has maintained certain low-cost CAC marketing channels (SEO & LLMs) while cutting brand marketing further. Support for self-serve customers has been imagined to be lighter touch, while R&D has been curtailed. Plus go-to-market and R&D are not impacted.
“We now model self-serve subscription declining mid-single-digits in H2, 8 per cent in Q1 and high teens by late C27 (15 per cent on the year). This may prove too conservative if new logos are being attracted at lower CAC, pricing/packaging is revised, or the ‘mature’ cohort is larger than expected. Commerce declines are more moderate given they are tied to successful customers (down 8 per cent). We continue to model a modest Plus growth acceleration from mid-teens in recent quarters to high-teens through C27 (Q2 had strong bookings and an initial reacceleration for the business).”
Mr. Fairweather increased his target by $1 to $3.25. The average is $1.50.
“We view the ‘reset’ as necessary given the low CAC:LTV ratio in selfserve, which may limit the impact of early-stage churn on EBITDA,” he said. “With $47-million in cash post-restructuring fees, $18-million in FCF, and Plus growing and moving to profitability, the profile has dramatically changed vs. the prior business with immaterial growth and profitability. With SelfServe more than 65 per cent of revenue, we are taking a cautious view to the target multiple at 5.0 times C27 EBITDA as we wait for evidence of the churn rate and its impact on FCF.”
National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé thinks “execution is now the key to realizing Casa Berardi’s value” for Orezone Gold Corp. (ORE-T) following a tour of the Quebec project and an update to its life-of-mine plan.
“The LOM plan requires the rebuilding of a previously demonstrated underground operating model,” he said. “Development is currently approximately 16 metres/day, with a near-term target of 20 m/day, compared with 26 m/day in the LOM plan and a planned peak of approximately 35 m/day in 2029. New equipment, contractor support and training should increase active stope inventory, supporting higher underground tonnes and grades and the planned East Mine restart.
“Plant performance provides upside beyond the current LOM plan. The plan assumes approximately 3.8 ktpd [thousand tons per day], compared with an average of approximately 4.0 ktpd since the acquisition and up to 4.8 ktpd on individual days. Average LOM recovery of approximately 84 per cent also compares with 86.8 per cent in Q2/26 and nearly 90 per cent historically. Increasing recovery to approximately 90 per cent and throughput to 4 ktpd would increase our Casa Berardi DCF5-per-cent by 32 per cent.”
Mr. Sidibé said the Sept. 17 tour, which came a day after the release of the new LOM, further reinforced his view that acquisition of Casa Berardi, which came in a deal for Hecla Quebec Inc., was “one that was accretive on all metrics, supports ORE’s objective to become a mid-tier producer with a potential to produce 350 koz per annum and that jurisdictionally should improve its multiples as the LOM plan is enacted and further optimizations are put in place.
“More upside remains within the current LOM plan through better underground grade dilution management, exploration, as well as leveraging the potential throughput upside at the plant,” he added. “Our model does not currently incorporate upside from higher throughput, improved recoveries, tighter dilution control or exploration success beyond the current resource base. The updated LOM plan exceeded our prior forecasts across most key operating metrics.”
The analyst increased his overall net asset value for Vancouver-based Orezone by 5 per cent to $5.65 per share from $5.40,while his 2027 EBITDA decreased by 1 per cent to $706-million from $715-million.
Reaffirming an “outperform” rating for the company’s shares, he increased his price target to $4.25 from $4. The average is $3.50.
“The plan exceeded our prior forecasts across key operating metrics and reinforced our view that the acquisition was accretive, improves Orezone’s jurisdictional exposure and supports its ambition to produce more than 350 koz annually,” he said.
Previewing third-quarter earnings season for North American railway companies, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Walter Spracklin sees Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) “delivering the best earnings upside versus consensus given solid volumes and operating metrics, we believe this sets the stage for a Q3 beat and potential guidance raise.”
“We see a near-term neutral reaction to CSX and UNP where our unchanged estimates are right in line with consensus,” he added. “We could see negative sentiment in CP shares as we expect street earnings to move lower into earnings, although flag the reduction to our estimates is mostly fuel driven. In terms of valuation, we roll forward our valuation year to 2028 and adjust our target multiples across the group as a result - with price targets coming down reflecting recent macro uncertainty. From a longer-term perspective, we also continue to flag CPKC and UNP on the back of their respective acquisitions.”
Mr. Spracklin increased his third-quarter earnings per share estimate to $2.12, exceeding the Street’s consensus of $2.10, from $2.07, citing “solid operating metric trends.”
“Our 2026 EPS growth estimate of 7.1 per cent (from 7.0 per cent) is ahead of consensus 6.7 per cent and compares to guidance for up mid-single-digits to high-single digits,” he added. “Given strong operating momentum exiting the quarter, we flag risk to the upside and could see management raise EPS guidance, which we believe would be well received.”
Keeping his “outperform” rating for CN shares, he trimmed his target to $198 from $205 based on a lower multiple. The average is currently $188.54.
“Our Outperform rating is based on favourable network dynamics as well as GDP plus growth opportunities and potential for margin improvement, in addition to discounted valuation in our view,” the analyst said.
For rival Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T), Mr. Spracklin cut his EPS to $1.30 from $1.36, falling under the consensus $1.34, to redlct higher fuel costs and compensation and benefits expense.
“Our 2026 EPS growth estimate decreases to 11.4 per cent (from 12.4 per cent), below consensus 12.5 per cent, but in line with guidance for EPS up low-double-digits,” he said. “Key focus on the call will be the extent to which CP specific opportunities can offset continued Coal headwinds in Q4 and tough Grain comps in 2027.”
With his “outperform” rating, Mr. Spracklin increased his target by $1 to $146, which exceeds the $138.11 average.
“Our positive view on CP centers on a best-in-class railroad ahead of a transformative acquisition, which we believe will set the stage for significant growth and a material upward valuation re-rate,” HE SAID.
“NSC is trading highest in the group as a result of the proposed deal with UNP. CSX’s valuation is also higher, likely baking in a takeover premium,” he said. “CPKC is trading in the middle of the pack and UNP toward the bottom despite both rails having exceptional longer-term opportunities in our view resulting from their respective acquisitions. Furthermore, CN appears to trade cheapest in the group, although closed the gap recently reflecting solid volumes and strong performance metrics. Turning to the group, ... Rails are now trading at a 9-per-cent premium to the index, up from a discount of 21 per cent in January, likely reflecting recovering volumes and indication pricing will inflect as intermodal contracts roll over into 2027″
The weaker-than-anticipated third-quarter results from AGF Management Ltd. (AGF.B-T) brought a “resetting” of expectations on alternative investments and fees alongside “strong” momentum from separately management accounts (SMAs) and exchange-traded funds, according to Desjardins Securities analyst Gary Ho.
Shares of the Toronto-based independent asset manager plummeted 9.7 per cent on Wednesday after it reported adjusted earnings per share of 49 cents, falling short of Mr. Ho’s 55-cent estimate and the Street’s 58-cent projection, due to a lower management fee rate and softer private alts contribution.
“GF lowered its near-term return outlook on long-term investments to 6–8 per cent from 8–10 per cent, as its legacy portfolio moves into harvest, and now guides to a 2–3 basis points decline in its net fee rate on mix shift toward SMAs and F-Series,” he said. “Investment performance remains solid. We lower our estimates and target.”
“Negatives. (1) Net fee rate of 67 basis points (down 1 bps quarter-over-quarter); AGF now guides to a 2–3 bps decline on mix shift to SMAs and F-Series. (2) Revenue from long-term investments of $3.9-million, vs our $7.9-million, was subdued by a $5-million markdown at a legacy venture capital partner. With the portfolio weighted to mature, later-stage assets now in harvest, AGF lowered its 1–5 year return outlook to 6–8 per cent (8–10-per-cent long-term target maintained) and expects only 1–2 per cent for 2026. A material portion of the book is expected to be monetized over 1– 5 years, recycling capital into new affiliates. (3) Segregated accounts and sub-advisory AUM [assets under management] declined 12 per cent year-over-year on a $650-million institutional redemption tied to asset allocation ($150-million pre-announced); no further redemptions are known in 4Q. (4) Kensington’s private equity fund is down 7.5 per cent year-to-date. (5) 4Q-to-date mutual fund net redemptions of $48-million reflect risk-off sentiment, though combined flows including SMA/ETF remain positive. Recall that AGF funds are more equity-tilted.”
Mr. Ho lowered his full-year 2026 EPS forecast to $1.99 from $2.13 with his 2027 and 2028 estimates falling to $2.05 and $2.19, respectively, from $2.22 and $2.27.
Keeping a “buy” rating for AGF shares, he cut his target to $21 from $23. The average target is $20.75.
“We foresee a few near/medium-term positive catalysts: (1) SMA/ETF flows momentum; (2) redeployment of capital for organic growth to seed new private alt strategies and for share buybacks; (3) M&A should be EPS-accretive,” said Mr. Ho.
Elsewhere, others making target revisions include:
* TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding to $20 from $23 with a “buy” rating.
“Our takeaways from the earnings call are mixed. FCF is solid (buybacks and dividends), as is the balance sheet. AUM growth for the SMA channel remains strong. However, mutual fund flows have stalled, AGF Capital Partners is mixed, and the earnings contribution from AGF Capital Partners is balance sheet heavy,” said Mr. Ryding.
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski to $20 from $23 with a “sector perform” rating.
“AGF shares declined 10 per cent [Wednesday] following Q3/26 adjusted EPS missing consensus due to a $3.3-million FV [fair value] loss on private investments (which can be lumpy) and guide-downs on i) net fee compression to 2-3 bps/annum (previously 2 bps/annum) and ii) 6-8-per-cent return from private investments (previously 8-10 per cent). We lower our estimates reflecting lower guidance and lower net flow assumptions as net flows remain benign,” said Mr. Dziarski.
Following a tour of Cameco Corp.’s (CCO-T) “highly strategic” conversion and fuel manufacturing facilities in Port Hope, Ont., TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison sees an “improving outlook” driven by “rising price dynamics.”
“The Port Hope facility is Canada’s only uranium conversion facility and one of just two in North America,” he said in a client note. “The facility produces both UF6 [uranium hexafluoride] for light water reactors and UO2 [uranium dioxide]for CANDU reactors domestically. The UF6 plant has a design capacity of 12.5M kgU, and produced a record 11.2M kgU in 2025. The company is targeting 2026 output of 13–14M kgU from its Port Hope fuel services business, broadly in line with 2025 production. Its current priorities are improving operational efficiency, controlling costs, and ramping output toward full design capacity as the global outlook for light-water reactors strengthens.”
Mr. Hutchison said he expects an improvement in margins as legacy contracts roll off and new contracts are added.
“As at the end of 2025, Cameco has 83M kgU of UF6 under long-term contracts, with some contracts going out 10 to 12 years,” he explained. “Conversion prices have remained elevated since 2022, supported by stronger demand, declining secondary supplies, and market disruption following the U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports. Long-term conversion prices currently stand at US$53/kgU, compared with Cameco’s average realized fuel services price of C$44.62/kgU, or US$32/kgU, in H1/2026. As new long-term contracts replace legacy agreements, we expect fuel services margins to improve, supporting stronger overall financial performance.
“The fuel conversion business currently accounts for 7 per cent of our Cameco operational NAV estimate, with potential upside as new markets emerge and margins expand.”
He reaffirmed a “buy” rating and $190 target for Cameco shares. The average is $182.59.
“Cameco remains one of the very few ways to invest in a publicly traded producing uranium miner, and, in our view, it is the most attractive way for investors to add uranium leverage to their portfolios,” he said.
Elsewhere, RBC’s Mohamed Sidibé kept an “outperform” rating and $184 target.
“While the flowsheet may seem simple, achieving nameplate is hard,” he said. “Management emphasized that conversion scarcity also reflects the difficulty of operating capacity reliably. Cameco operates a wet process conversion process vs. most other facilities around the world using a dry process. Managing highly corrosive hydrofluoric acid and fluorine chemistry requires specialized equipment and operating experience. Elemental fluorine is produced onsite and cannot be stored, requiring close alignment between fluorine generation and the downstream process.
“Cameco’s vertical integration provides it with additional commercial flexibility. Management indicated that this allows Cameco on the contracting front as it can offer a bundled supply arrangement, and it helps in better understanding the flow of deals and information across the fuel cycle.”
In other analyst actions:
* In a client report titled A Defensive-Offensive Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight, Raymond James’ Frederic Bastien raised his Dexterra Group Inc. (DXT-T) to $20 from $18.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average target is $18.88.
“We reaffirm our constructive stance on Dexterra Group after marketing CEO Mark Becker and CFO Denise Achonu to Montreal-based investors this week. The meetings reinforced our view that DXT occupies an attractive ‘defensive-offensive’ position within a portfolio, pairing the recurring cash flows of Support Services with direct exposure to Canada’s multi-year Nation Building, resource and defence investment cycle. Importantly, Dexterra can pursue this growth without abandoning its capital-light model, creating an increasingly attractive combination of earnings durability, organic growth, and capital efficiency. Given our belief this mix warrants a higher valuation than the market currently assigns the company, we are increasing our target price,” said Mr. Bastien.
* Seeing “macro conditions pressuring consumer demand,” TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison cut his target for Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-N, GIL-T) to US$54 from US$80, which is the average on the Street, with a “buy” rating.
“As bond yields/gas prices escalate, we revisited our industry channel checks and concluded that industry demand across both the Activewear/Retail channels appears to have softened since Gildan’s Q2/26 release. With the potential impact being more pronounced on the lower-to-middle income consumer deferring discretionary spend, we are lowering our financial forecasts and target multiple/price,” he said.
* In response to an updated preliminary economic assessment for its 100-per-cent owned Santa Cruz Project in Arizona, Raymond James’ Judith Elliott trimmed her Ivanhoe Electric Inc. (IE-A, IE-T) target to US$20, matching the average, from US$21 with an “outperform” rating.
“Overall, we view the update as positive with the PFS being an important de-risking milestone for Santa Cruz ahead of initial construction. While we note 15-per-cent higher development capex and 11-per-cent higher operating costs, these are offset by a slightly better copper production profile and higher copper price assumptions than the 2025 PFS, driving a higher NPV. We note the project remains subject to final permitting for exploitation and project financing,” said Ms. Elliott.
* ATB Cormark’s Tim Monachello increased his target for Total Energy Services Inc. (TOT-T) to $42 from $36.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $33.
“On Tuesday, September 22, 2026, ATB Cormark hosted Total Energy Services’ Management for a day of investor meetings in Toronto; in attendance from Management were President and CEO, Mr. Dan Halyk, and VP Finance and CFO, Mrs. Yuliya Gorbach. We came away from the day with increased conviction on TOT’s outlook, most notably in its Compression and Process Solutions (CPS) segment, that is benefiting from strong demand tailwinds, a doubling of U.S. manufacturing capacity, and visibility to margin expansion. This strong outlook is complemented by tailwinds across TOT’s equipment-based energy services business lines and its healthy capacity to capitalize on high-return growth opportunities. We increase our adj. EBITDAS estimates by 5 per cent across our forecast horizon,” said Mr. Monachello.