Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman sees WSP Global Inc.’s (WSP-T) US$3.3-billion takeover of U.S. rival TRC Companies as “a home run,” emphasizing the deal is “immediately accretive to adjusted earnings per share pre-synergies and high single-digits accretive to 2027 post-synergies.”
“We believe investors who think the M&A machine will slow down, or that it will get more difficult to move the needle, are mistaken,” he said. “The company has repeatedly demonstrated the ambition, ability, and ammunition to continue DD% compounding at scale. TRC demonstrates its ability to consummate transformative deals at bolt-on multiples while pro forma leverage of 2.4x is likely overstated given the company plans to divest part of Ricardo. The deal was significantly oversubscribed according to The Globe and Mail, which, with the private placement, shows the company has a permanent source of institutional capital. We expect shares to grind higher as investors digest the significance of transaction following a similar pattern to POWER Engineers in 2024 (shares up 17 per cent in 60 days post-announcement)."
Mr. Goldman was one of several analysts on the Street resuming coverage of the Montreal-based engineering firm following the announced transaction, which is expected close on March 28, and concurrent equity offering/private placement for gross proceeds of $977.5-million.
He sees the move establishing WSP as “the largest E&C in the U.S. and #1 Power & Energy platform burnishing its leadership in yet another vertical.”
“TRC increases exposure to one of the highest growth verticals with Power & Energy accounting for 20 per cent of net revenues pro forma,” the analyst said. “TRC’s 4-year organic revenue growth CAGR of 12% should provide an immediate uplift to WSP consolidated organic growth profile in the range of 60-80bp (our estimate). TRC F2025 margin of 17.4 per cent, or 20.4-per-cent pro synergies, are above WSP 2025E consolidated margin of 18.5 per cent. We see cost synergies as low-lying fruit, especially since they would just raise TRC margins in-line with WSP Americas.
“TRC also increases exposure to other high growth areas such as Water, Transportation & Infrastructure, and Earth & Environmental, and diversifies the U.S. customer base with more private exposure (public/private split is 80/20 for TRC and 50/50 for WSP Americas). We anticipate revenue synergies given complementary service offering across the Power & Energy supply chain and TRC’s significant advisory and project management practice. Recall, management is looking to capture share in the $450 billion advisory services market, which is currently dominated by large management consulting firms.”
Mr. Goldman now sees upside to WSP’s forecast “given the company’s history of conservatism, cost synergies seem like low-lying fruit, and it excludes potential revenue synergies.” He also emphasized it puts the company on pace to exceed 2027 targets.
Keeping a “sector outperform” rating for WSP shares, he raised his target to $318 from $308. The average target on the Street is $322.60, according to LSEG data.
“We believe WSP deserves a premium to peers given: 1) higher organic growth profile; 2) best-in-class margins and accelerating scale benefits; 3) more ambitious M&A program and dry powder (i.e., accelerating FCF generation, institutional support, and potential divestiture of Ricardo Automotive and Industrial (A&I) and Performance Products (PP) segments); and 4) upside on TRC revenue synergies. In general, we see upside to E&C valuations as we expect U.S. organic to reaccelerate in 2026 and AI overhang to dissipate,” he concluded.
Other analysts making target revisions include:
* National Bank’s Maxim Sytchev to $304 from $301 with an “outperform” rating.
“H2/25 has been painful for the consulting cohort on fears of AI potentially impacting the time & materials procurement cycle; speaking with market participants and corporates, we believe digital tools are seen as productivity enablers in the short term while the long-term impact is still being assessed. The market’s reaction to the deal is also quite telling as fears of transformational M&A is not ultimately what the board/management decided to pursue; we believe the TRC transaction is a great deal for the current backdrop and sentiment. Increasing exposure to the Power space builds on strong and positive reception to the POWER Engineers deal, it’s accretive, digestible in terms of size/complexity (yet more than moves the needle by adding more than 10 per cent to run-rate EBITDA), and offers cross-selling opportunities around transport and water. At a now much more palatable 13.1 times 2027E pro forma EV/EBITDA, we are buyers of WSP shares,” said Mr. Sytchev.
* TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme to $335 from $330 with a “buy” rating.
“We view the acquisition of TRC positively; both strategically and financially. The deal further bolsters WSP’s already strong exposure to and capabilities in the high-growth Power & Energy (P&E) sector, and positions it as the largest engineering and design firm in the U.S. Expected to be immediately accretive to EPS, WSP is paying 12 times 2026 estimated adj. EBITDA (below WSP’s pre-deal valuation),” said Mr. Tupholme.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $375 from $346 with a “buy” rating.
“We view the TRC acquisition positively as it eliminates the Jacobs equity overhang, increases WSP’s power exposure to 20 per cent of revenue and expands its US footprint to 50 per cent, narrowing the mix gap vs STN. WSP will become the largest U.S. engineering firm by revenue. The deal offers strong value creation with potential for double-digit EPS accretion post revenue synergies and signals confidence despite AI-related industry fears. We expect WSP to close its valuation gap and return to its historical premium vs peers,” said Mr. Poirier.
* Raymond James’ Frederic Bastien to $340 from $310 with a “strong buy” rating.
“Our Best Pick for 2026 wasted no time proving the strength of our thesis. Last week, WSP Global agreed to acquire Connecticut-based TRC in a deal that further elevates the engineering consultancy’s standing on the global stage. The US$3.3-billion all-cash transaction promises to not only supercharge WSP’s position in the critical and fast-growing power sector, but also turn it into the largest and most diversified engineering platform in the United States. What’s more, TRC puts WSP well on track to achieve the financial targets set out in its 2025-2027 Global Strategic Action Plan without the need for new acquisitions. With this much visibility, we are comfortable rolling our valuation forward to 2027 and increasing our target by 10 per cent,” said Mr. Bastien.
* ATB Capital Markets’ Chris Murray to $330 from $305 with an “outperform” rating.
“The proposed transaction would see 8,000 employees join WSP, significantly expanding the Company’s exposure to the power and utilities sector, with TRC reporting a high single-digit growth rate in recent years. We believe the underlying asset quality, highlighted by TRC’s 10.0-per-cent organic growth CAGR, sector-based tailwinds, and greater exposure to higher-margin advisory services, warrants a premium valuation, with near-term cost savings expected to lower the effective multiple to 12.5 times. Overall, we view the deal as modestly accretive and provides WSP with increasingly balanced end-market exposure and a larger presence in a higher-growth sector, which should support organic growth trends in WSP’s Americas segment,” said Mr. Murray.
In a research report previewing 2026 for Canadian energy infrastructure companies titled While Big Ideas Percolate, Singles and Doubles Prevail, ATB Capital Markets analyst Nate Heywood predicts winners in the new year will be ”names with irreplicable asset portfolios with expansion/optimization opportunities that can extract high-returns while maintaining cash flow quality."
“The past year expanded the imagination around energy infrastructure possibilities that seemed out of grasp in recent memory,” he said. “Driven by market volatility, trade disruptions and rising energy demand, ideas of significance surfaced, or in some cases resurfaced, that many would have dismissed in previous environments. While sentiment toward large-scale energy infrastructure projects may be shifting on a political level, referencing the MOU between Alberta and the federal government, the concerns from the private sector to pursue new projects must be considered given the scale of capital, commercial underpinnings, environmental opposition, cost overrun risk and political cycles.
“We expect 2026 to bring further discussions around Canada’s market position in energy but the focus to remain on smaller, short-cycle, brownfield investments. Within the midstream sector, we expect strengthening fundamentals with TMX, LPG and LNG filling white space. The outlook for power demand continues to be driven by significant AI capital deployment, augmented by onshoring of manufacturing, population growth and electrification.”
Mr. Heywood emphasized a “singles and doubles” environment, seeing Market and regulatory uncertainty pushing large-scale investment in the space “toward abstinence, with many opting toward smaller projects to spread risk and improve the efficiency of existing assets.”
“With pipelines in particular, government and First Nations involvement is proving necessary to move projects into construction,” he added. “The private sector has found ample opportunities to grow cash flow at 5-7 per cent through brownfield investments, avoiding the inherent risk of major projects. While it doesn’t mean that the private sector won’t invest in large opportunities, we expect it would require appropriate risk sharing to attract investment. We would also flag the value of ‘steel in the ground’, which implies the existing infrastructure provides opportunities while avoiding supply chain and inflationary pressures.
“Volumes on the Up and Up: The WCSB is now long crude pipeline capacity with the addition of TMX and the outlook for LNG exports is providing optimism for improved economics. The midstream playbook typically doesn’t take a stake in commodity pricing but many cash flow streams are underpinned by volumes and asset throughput. The focus of upstream spending and consolidation has surrounded the Montney and Duvernay, a trend supported by liquids-rich production and ability to meet condensate and LNG demand. We view names like ALA, KEY and PPL to be structurally well positioned to benefit from these basin fundamentals.”
The analyst made one rating revision on Tuesday, lowering Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc. (RGSI-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” to reflect a limited projected return. His target remains $29, which falls under the $31.80 average.
“We have left estimates unchanged. Our forecast continues to capture anticipated tailwinds for natural gas storage assets and stronger commercial demand for longterm contracts,” he said.
Citing “their respective scale, ability to deploy capital and exposure to strengthening fundamentals,” Mr. Heywood named four top picks for 2026:
* AltaGas Ltd. (ALA-T) with an “outperform” rating and $49 target, up from $48. The average is $47.34.
Analyst: “While AltaGas has outperformed its peer group through 2025, we expect the momentum to continue through 2026 given its unique positioning with LPG exports to Asia and natural gas utilities in the United States. Management has progressed its commercial strategy to lock in cash flows and support expansions with agreements with KEY and PPL, but we have also seen strength in Asian LPG pricing and view ALA as well-positioned during USA/China trade conflicts. Recent project announcements have exemplified the opportunity for high-returning investments around existing infrastructure, noting a number of less than 5 times investments across LPG optimizations and MVP expansions. The 2026 budget is $1.6-billion with Utilities spending focused on the ongoing modernization programs, the recently sanctioned Keweenaw Connector, while Midstream spending is focused on REEF Phase 1, REEF Optimization 1, the Dimsdale Phase 1 expansion and RIPET Methanol project. ALA recently increased its dividend by 6% and continues to guide to 5-7-per-cent growth annually through 2030.”
* Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) with an “outperform” rating and $75 target. Average: $77.44.
Analyst: “The natural gas generation ‘power play’ continues to benefit from tailwinds supporting the longterm outlook for low-cost, reliable, firm generation. CPX and TA both operate large fleets of natural gas assets. CPX has a large-scale fleet in both Canada and the U.S. that consists of both merchant and contracted assets. The current environment is providing opportunity for colocated data centre developments, upsized re-contracting and increased utilization. The growth outlook remains heavily centred on M&A for CPX. TA also has a fleet of assets in Canada, largely in Alberta, and a U.S. fleet (including an ongoing C2G conversion in Washington). The Alberta fleet consists of large-scale underutilized natural gas generation assets well situated to benefit from incremental load growth and data centre development, including its 230MW AESO phase 1 large load allocation. CPX and TA trade at 2027 EV/EBITDA multiples of 8.6 times and 9.6 times, which compares to Canadian IPP peers trading near 10 times and U.S. natural gas generation exposed peers more than 12 times.″
* Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T) with an “outperform” rating and $72 target. Average: $69.
Analyst: “Despite the more bearish sentiment on crude exposure recently, we would note that Enbridge has essentially zero direct exposure to commodity prices. The EBITDA profile for Company is also well-diversified between crude infrastructure (50 per cent) and natural gas / power infrastructure (50 per cent). We are seeing ENB lean on its existing infrastructure to high-grade its $37-billion project pipeline, identifying opportunities in the mid- to high-single-digit range. Notably, the initial optimization project on the Mainline for $1.5-billion has an expected return on capital in the 4-6 times range. We expect ENB will continue to find opportunities across the portfolio that have attractive cash flow characteristics, while prudently managing project risk.”
* Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PPL-T) with an “outperform” rating and $61 target. Average: $57.63.
Analyst: “After a turbulent year with a few notable hiccups, we have seen PPL provide notable growth announcements, commercial momentum and execute on a long-term data centre opportunity. PPL operates a robust and heavily integrated value chain with assets touching natural gas, NGLs and crude, leaving the company well positioned to benefit from WCSB production growth and catalysts around LNG exports, LPG exports, petrochemical demand and incremental crude egress/diluent needs. While the marketing environment remains dampened by softening NGL prices and higher natural as pricing, which has compacted frac spreads, we continue to expect tailwinds from new projects and basin production to drive strong contracted cash flows in 2026. The capital program of $1.6-billion continues to focus on expansions and value enhancing initiatives across its network. Combined with a strong balance sheet, we view PPL’s approach to positioning itself for long-term growth and efforts towards value chain enhancements as unique investment characteristics given its size and breadth of expertise.”
Mr. Heywood also trimmed his Northland Power Corp. (NPI-T) target by $1 to $22 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $22.58.
TD Cowen analyst Meno Hulshof thinks Baytex Energy Corp.’s (BTE-T) three-year outlook reinforces a “simpler, nimbler pure Canadian strategy including a 3-5-per-cent production CAGR [compound annual growth rate] at US$60/bbl WTI (75mboe/d in 2028) and a smaller 8-member board.”
“The real near-term story, in our view, is an accelerated NCIB (back-stopped by $800-million net cash) which, on our math, could get completed in as little as 53 days,” he added. “An SIB is still in the cards, but far from certain and we do not model one.”
On Monday, the Calgary-based company announced a 2026 capital budget of $550-million to $625-million as it looks to increase production by 3-5 per cent annually with the option of accelerating at higher WTI prices.
“Below that, BTE guided an improved sustaining WTI breakeven price of US$52 per barrel (down 13 per cent year-over-year), 2026 production of 67-69 mboe/d [thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day] (89-per-cent liquids; 70 mboe/d exit) funded by $550-625-million of capex (45 per cent H1/26), and growth to 75m boe/d in 2028. The 3-year plan consumes approximately 25 per cent of its drilling inventory.
“Expect buybacks to ramp immediately: Given its $800-million net cash position, BTE is reinstating the NCIB and considering an SIB. Given its discounted valuation, this is absolutely the right move, in our view. We estimate that if it were to max out its daily buyback, that the NCIB could be complete in the March 2026 timeframe. For now, we do not model an SIB. BTE does not expect to be cash taxable in 2026. Its $750-million credit facility has been extended to 2030 vs. 2029 prior.”
Baytex also announced the “streamlining” of its board of directors, reducing it to 8 from 10, the appointment of Chad E. Lundberg as President and Chief Operating Officer.
Reiterating his “buy” rating for the company’s shares, Mr. Hulshof raised his target to $5 from $4.75. The average target on the Street is $4.91.
“In our view, while the cross-border model had clear benefits, and the EF served an important role historically, this was no longer recognized by investors. We like this far more streamlined, nimble and well-capitalized version of BTE. The set-up looking forward is attractive: 1) a net cash position with a unique opportunity to make significant share repurchases, 2) a return to organically funded growth of 3-5 per cent annually (vs. a prior largely sustaining capital budget for 2026), and 3) an opportunity to create value in the PDuv (one-rig program, 18-20 wells/yr with production ramping to 20-25mboe/d by late-decade), and a host of heavy oil plays (some old, some new) where it continues to opportunistically add acreage,“ he said. ”At US$65/bbl+ WTI, we see the most option value in its legacy heavy oil portfolio (approximately 1,100 drilling locations, 24-per-cent 2P). Our TP increases to $5/sh on revised financial estimates and a half-turn increase to our target multiple.”
National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine sees WildBrain Ltd. (WILD-T) poised for significant changes, including a "re-segmentation" of its business operations, following the sale of its remaining 41-per-cent stake in the Peanuts franchise to Sony (SONY-N) for $630-million.
“As WILD prepares for its next chapter, we estimate Peanuts accounted for 92 per cent of Global Licensing in fiscal 2025, 53 per cent of total revenues ex-TV, and 63 per cent of Adj. EBITDA ex-TV,” he said. “Revenues in f2026 ex-TV were guided at midpoint to grow $85-million and Adj. EBITDA $13-million, with boost from Apple-related Peanuts library deal in 2Q.”
In a client note released Tuesday titled Good Grief and What a Relief As Remaining Stake in Peanuts Gets Sold To Sony To Clear Debt, Mr. Shine emphasized the impact of the Peanuts brand on the Toronto-based entertainment company, while also pointed to the impact of the elimination of its entire debt with over $40-million now in cash surplus.
“Peanuts contributed $27-million of EBITDA directly to WILD in f2025 but $43-million including consolidated benefits,” he said. “Interest savings of $50-million from sale more than doubles LTM FCF from brand. WILD remains multi-year partner to Peanuts: 1) exclusive licensing agent through WildBrain CPLG for consumer products in all current territories across Europe, the Middle East, China and APAC (ex Japan & ANZ), 2) exclusive production studio for new Peanuts content - including previously announced feature film - under an expansive partnership with Apple TV, recently renewed through 2030, and 3) distributor of WILD-produced Peanuts content and continued management of Snoopy YouTube channel.
“Leverage at 1Q was 5 times. This will revert to net cash in 3Q. WILD will focus on its wholly-owned franchises, including Strawberry Shortcake & Teletubbies, expanding its premium digital content network and ad footprint (YouTube, FAST, AVOD), investing across emerging technologies to drive innovation and efficiencies, and evaluating opportunities for share repurchases and bolt-on acquisitions. WILD will spend $50-$100-million on growth opportunities.”
Waiting for further direction on the company following its decision to suspend guidance, Mr. Shine trimmed his target for WildBrain shares to $2 from $2.25, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average is $2.58.
Elsewhere, RBC’s Drew McReynolds reduced his target to $2 from $2.50, reiterating a “sector perform” rating.
“We believe the sale of Peanuts provides the company with enhanced financial flexibility to pursue its next phase of growth under a more profitable, capital-light and FCF-generative business model,” said Mr. McReynolds. “Within a rapidly changing global content industry, untapped growth opportunities for WildBrain include franchise expansion for owned-IP (particularly Strawberry Shortcake, Teletubbies), WildBrain CPLG (global licensing agency) and audience engagement (digital advertising, AVOD, FAST). In addition, we also believe a debt-free balance sheet and a revenue mix absent legacy media exposure following the closing of the Television business further increase strategic optionality for the company while enhancing the capital return profile.”
Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier thinks Transat A.T. Inc.’s (TRZ-T) winter yields trending higher year-over-year despite a decline in load factor and other domestic airlines planning capacity increases for the year ahead signal “the supply/demand dynamic in the industry remains somewhat healthy despite the weak consumer sentiment in Canada.”
“Targeted network expansion, combined with fewer grounded aircraft, productivity gains and network optimization, is expected to result in a 6–8-per-cent capacity increase for FY26 (despite no planned aircraft deliveries for TRZ)," he said. “This level of increase was above our expectations causing us to increase our forward assumptions for FY26 and FY27. We now forecast 8.9-per-cent EBITDA margin in FY26 and see a path for TRZ to reach the double-digit level of profitability in the next couple of years if it gets some macro tailwinds.”
Following the Montreal-based operator logging its first annual profit since 2018, Mr. Poirier is now expecting to be free cash flow positive in fiscal 2026.
“With profitability set to improve, flattish capex, a drop in finance expenses following the debt restructuring with the Canadian government, two leases expected to end during the summer and a working capital bump (further compensation from Pratt & Whitney), management believes FCF should be positive in FY26,” he explained. “Putting all these assumptions in our model, we estimate that TRZ should generate $4-million of FCF and end FY26 with leverage ratio of 4.4 times (down from 5.9 times at the end of this year; net debt/LTM [last 12-month] adjusted EBITDA including lease liabilities).”
Also emphasizing Pierre Karl Péladeau’s recently launched activist campaign and earlier reported interest in acquiring Transat “could offer near-term upside for the stock,” Mr. Poirier raised his target for its shares to $3.30 from $3, which is the current average.
He reiterated a “hold” rating.
“We prefer to remain on the sidelines as we await additional deleveraging as well as execution of the strategic plan,” he concluded.
Raymond James analyst Brian MacArthur sees several benefits stemming from Champion Iron Ltd.’s (CIA-T) US$289-million takeover offer for Norway’s Rana Gruber ASA, including a diversification of its production base beyond the Bloom Lake mining complex in the Labrador Trough, the ability to gain new customers in Europe, marketing synergies and its accretive nature.
“Rana Gruber is an iron ore producer with continuous production dating back to the 1960’s in a stable jurisdiction with access to renewable power,” he added. “It produces two iron ore concentrates: hematite (90 per cent of volume) and specialty magnetite product (approximately 10 per cent of volume). It has recently been producing over 1.8 million tons per annum of high-grade iron ore including a project to upgrade production to 65-per-cent Fe iron ore concentrate with cash costs reported at aboutUS$56/tonne. There may opportunities over time to increase production and concentrate grade. Rana Gruber’s trailing four quarter profit was NOK 333.5 million (US$32.9-millon) and EBITDA was NOK 592.3 million (US$58.4-million).”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for the Sydney, Australia-based miner, whose entire operating base is in Canada, Mr. MacArthur raised his target to $7 from $6.50. The average is $5.88.
“We believe CIA offers investors good exposure to premium iron ore through its Bloom Lake asset, which is a long-life, lower-cost asset producing high-grade iron ore concentrate (66-per-cent Fe) located in Quebec, Canada, a lower-risk jurisdiction,” he said. “In addition, there is near-term growth from Bloom Lake Phase 2 as well as numerous other longer term growth/value creation options.”
In other analyst actions:
* CIBC’s Luke Bertozzi raised his Highlander Silver Corp. (HSLV-T) target to $6.50 from $5.50 with an “outperformer” rating. The average on the Street is $6.25.
“The acquisition of Bear Creek Mining adds the fully permitted, silver-dominant Corani project to Highlander’s growth pipeline at an attractive valuation of. This strategically adds scale and silver exposure in a jurisdiction where Highlander already has experience,” he said.