Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Keith Mackey thinks Canada’s fracturing market is now “well supplied,” leading to “softening” pricing as providers also enter an upgrade cycle to 100-per-cent natural gas equipment, lowering the amount of cash available for buybacks.
Given that backdrop, he lowered his rating for Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” on Tuesday in a client report previewing first-quarter earnings season for North American oil and gas services providers, despite calling the Calgary-based company “a leading Canadian service provider, with strong offerings in pressure pumping and cementing.”
“These factors combine into a lower relative return proposition than other names under coverage,” Mr. Mackey said.
“Trican led the Tier IV DGB upgrade cycle in Canada which provided a competitive advantage and timed the market well. We are now at the beginning of a new upgrade cycle to 100% natural gas engines. This is not an issue in itself, however, with soft general fracturing pricing and more players vying to provide this option, we expect returns to be relatively less compelling for service providers, near term.”
In justifying his change, the analyst also noted Trican’s pace of buybacks has slowed recently.
“Trican fully utilized its NCIB from 2024 to 2025,” he noted. “Despite growing its cash generating capability with the 2025 Iron Horse acquisition, we see 7 per cent lower year-over-year FCF (CFO-capex) in 2026 than the company generated in 2025, and 30 per cent lower than 2024. Underlying FCF generation capability would be higher without the new fleet investment, but pressure pumping stocks are usually most compelling to own exiting a build cycle.”
Mr. Mackey reiterated a $7.50 target for Trican shares. The average target on the Street is $7.69, according to LSEG data.
“Over the past 4 years, Trican has traded at an FY+1 EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.5 times, a premium to comparable North American pressure pumpers, justified by its Canadian exposure and buyback accretion,” he added. “With a current multiple of 5.9 times, the risk of negative earnings estimate revisions might limit future multiple expansion.”
In the report, Mr. Mackey made several target price adjustments to other TSX-listed stocks in his coverage universe. They are:
- Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW-T, “sector perform”) to $7.50 from $7. The average is $7.
- CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T, “outperform”) to $22 from $20. Average: $20.08.
- Enerflex Ltd. (EFXT-N/EFX-T, “outperform”) to US$26 from US$20. Average: US$26.22.
- Ensign Energy Services Inc. (ESI-T, “sector perform”) to $4 from $3.50. Average: $3.67.
- Precision Drilling Corp. (PD-T, “outperform”) to $150 from $140. Average: $145.73.
“Covered stocks have increased 36 per cent this year, with U.S.-focused firms generally outperforming those with Middle East exposure,” he said. “Key themes though the course of Q1 reporting will be disruption caused by the Iran War to-date and the ultimate rebuild and production re-ramp effort. In the US, public E&Ps continue to hold the line on spending, but incremental equipment supply tightness could drive pricing higher through the year. Our preferred list across our global coverage is: SLB (SLB), Baker Hughes (BKR), TechnipFMC (FTI), Enerflex (EFXT), Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN), Hunting (HTG) and CES Energy Solutions (CEU).”
Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp.’s (SES-T) $5.4-billion deal to be acquired by GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL-T) is “a positive outcome” for its shareholders, according to Stifel analyst Ian Gillies, who moved his rating for the Calgary-based company’s shares to “hold” from “buy” previously.
“Previously, our view is that we believe there could be a bit more upside given the potential growth opportunities embedded in the business,” he said. “We also thought that there could be new bidders emerging. However, given the breakup fee of $200-million that SES will have to pay to GFL. We believe shareholders should tender to this offer.”
Secure shares rose 5.1 per cent on Monday following the premarket of the announcement of the deal, which sees GFL paying $24.75 per share , a 16-per-cent premium to the target’s last closing price. GFL will mostly use shares to pay for the deal, with Secure agreeing to receive a split of 80 per cent stock and 20 per cent cash.
“The transaction multiple is healthy at 11.8 times/11.0 times EV/EBITDA in 2026/2027 based on Stifel’s estimates,” said Mr. Gillies. “Following [Monday’s] share price movement, the implied takeover price of $22.95 indicates transaction multiples of 11.1x and 10.2x, respectively. The deal is structured as 20-per-cent cash and 80-per-cent equity where SES shareholders will receive $4.95/sh in cash and 0.3356 shares of GFL per SES share owned. The transaction is expected to close in 2H26E, and we believe they are well positioned to clear the regulatory hurdles for this deal.”
“There seems to be some consternation around regulatory approval, but we believe the regulatory hurdles should be cleared given the merger does not increase the market share in Western Canada as SES and GFL have very little overlap in business offerings. Recall, SES had to previously divest approximately 30 per cent of its oilfield waste business following the Tervita acquisition to meet regulatory requirements and the business is well positioned to meet those requirements.”
The analyst cut his target to $23 from $26. The average is $22.
Elsewhere, others making rating revisions include:
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $24.75 target, up from $22.
“In short, we view this as a fantastic outcome for SES shareholders, one that crystallizes management’s re-rate vision and reflects the team’s solid execution over the past two years, arguably pulling forward an outcome we envisioned several years out. With unanimous Board approval on both sides, and clear support from both management (2 per cent) and its largest shareholders (20 per cent), we see the likelihood of competing offers as low. With limited direct overlap, we also expect the competition review process to conclude without major remedy,” said Mr. Hansen.
* CIBC’s Jamie Kubik to “tender” from “neutral” with a $24.75 target, up from $22.50.
“We believe the offer provides SECURE’s shareholders with an attractive premium, while also retaining potential upside of the combined company. The combined company provides shareholders of SECURE exposure to additional segments of the waste management value chain, resulting in less revenue concentration and enhanced growth potential. The increase in GFL’s float capitalization could also enhance potential for broader future equity index inclusions,” said Mr. Kubik.
With Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund’s (CHE.UN-T) rezoning application at its North Vancouver chlor-alkali facility failing to impress local politicians, Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen lowered his rating for its shares by two levels to “market perform” from “strong buy” previously.
“[Monday] night we attended a District of North Vancouver (DNV) council meeting where we expected to observe the second and third readings of Rezoning Bylaw 8778, key steps toward advancing the rezoning and lease extension (to Dec-31-44) of Chemtrade’s Electrochem (EC) facility located at 100 Amherst Ave in North Vancouver,” he explained. “As previously articulated, advancing this bylaw has long been viewed as the critical gating item to securing a long-term lease and mitigating operational constraints beginning Jun-30-30 that would otherwise force the plant shutdown.
“Instead, we observed a council that ignored the risk assessments solicited, dismissed senior government support (Federal/Provincial), sided with NIMBYISM, and ultimately suspended further readings of the bylaw (vote: 4-3) – thus squashing any near-term visibility on an extension. While an alternative path may still emerge, including higher-level government involvement/pressure, we struggle to assign a timeline/probability to such an outcome."
Mr. Hansen now sees a “big gap to fill” for Chemtrade, calling the implications of the decision “likely significant” and predicting a “rapid shift in capital allocation seems likely.”
“For context, Chemtrade’s EC segment (inc. North Van) currently represents 45 per cent and 44 per cent of our FY26 & FY27 operating EBITDA estimates (ex-corporate) — a big gap if the facility is ultimately wound down,” he said. “In the meantime (2026-1H30), the macro/earnings outlook remains strong—further supported by the recent Middle East conflict—which should drive robust free cash flow and enable deleveraging during this interim period. We have not made any changes to our near-term estimates.”
“Until greater clarity emerges, we expect this event to drive a rapid shift in capital allocation toward maximizing FCF & deleveraging. Our preliminary analysis suggests this approach could unlock up to $200-million of incremental FCF annually, driven by: (1) lower EC capex (where feasible), (2) reduced buybacks ($100-million/year), and (3) a lower dividend ($80-million/year). Based upon 4Q25 ending leverage ($1.2-billion, 2.3 times), we see a pathway to reducing leverage via these actions to comfortably sub-1.0 times by mid-2031. At the same time, leverage could prove even more conservative should the company choose to sell the 40 acres of private land surrounding its EC site ($250-million value).”
The analyst dropped his target to $15 from $21. The average is $18.80.
TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca thinks the recent underperformance by Canadian property and casualty insurance providers have created a “favourable set-up” for investors heading into first-quarter earnings season.
“Among our coverage, P&C stocks underperformed lifecos and banks over 2025,” he said. “We expect: good underlying fundamentals, normal CAT losses; personal lines firmness; and limited impact from pricing softness in large commercial property to support the group in 2026.”
In a client report released Tuesday, Mr. Mendonca said he’s watching four key themes in the weeks ahead: “: a) strong underlying conditions (esp. personal lines) but moderating commercial topline, b) slower growth in investment income, c) modest CAT quarter, d) good E&S growth.”
He also emphasized his expectation that growth in gross premiums written (GWP) will remain good and Ontario auto reforms to have modest impact."
“We believe personal lines markets remain firm as markets are rebalancing, not moving towards intense competition,” the analyst explained. “Softness remains concentrated in large, commercial property cases where IFC and DFY have limited exposure. For [Definity Financial’s] Travelers Canada acquisition, our estimates reflect gradual combined ratio improvement from expense-driven synergies. We do not expect meaningful CAT losses as IFC/DFY have not pre-announced CATs for Q1/26. However, following weather events in January, we expect higher sequential CAT losses.
“We do not expect auto reforms in Ontario (effective July 1, 2026, new customers will have to opt in to certain benefits like income replacement) to have a meaningful effect on top- or bottom-line results at IFC and DFY, largely because we estimate that optional benefits under the reforms account for low-single-digit proportion of total premiums.”
Mr. Mendonca raised his target for Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T) to $60 from $58, keeping a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $56.20.
“Overall, we expect Q1/26 to be a positive quarter for TSU, with a continuation of many of the growth trends from 2025,” he said. “The absence of exited lines charges, a better outlook on U.S. Programs, continued momentum in Surety (higher construction values, share gains, and U.S. expansion) and Warranty (two most profitable lines), should drive further upside for TSU. A sustainable 17-per-cent ROE (and the book value growth this implies) comfortably support our 2.5-2.6 times target P/B. We continue to rate TSU BUY.
“We believe the P&C names offer a good combination of a defensive business model (modest market and credit risk) and, with the recent pullback in stock prices, attractive relative valuation (particularly compared with the banks). We favour IFC (investors would favour a large Specialty deal) over DFY (execution risk on Travelers deal).”
He maintained his $85 target for Definity Financial Corp. (DFY-T, “buy”) and $354 target for Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T). The averages are $77.33 and $315.67, respectively.
“We continue to favour IFC over DFY, reflecting IFC’s broader market reach geographically, exposure to Specialty, leading market position (and related scale advantages), track record of strong fundamental performance, and superior ROE profile,” said Mr. Mendonca.
In a separate report, Mr. Mendonca predicted a “mixed” quarter for Canadian life insurance providers.
“We expect moderating growth in Asian insurance sales, and weaker markets and outflows (IAG’s segregated funds are the exception) to hurt earnings growth in Q1/26,” he said. “In addition to softer results in these important segments, we expect lower net investment income (including earnings on surplus) driven by lower rates and surplus used for share repurchases. Conversely, a lower share count (3-per-cent year-over-year declines across the group) supports adjusted EPS growth of 10 per cent and progress toward ROE targets.”
“From a positive perspective, we expect IAG and GWO to articulate a more aggressive buyback strategy, and SLF to report stronger stop loss results.”
The analyst made one target change, raising IA Financial Corp. Inc. (IAG-T, “buy”) to $193 from $189. The average on the Street is $178.33.
His other targets are:
- Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T, “buy”) at $73 . Average: $69.33.
- Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T, “buy”) at $59. Average: $55.77.
- Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF-T, “buy”) at $102. Average: $98.
“Recent outperformance from Canada’s banks has the insurers trading at an 18% discount to the banks on a forward P/E basis,” said Mr. Mendonca. “Relative valuation, significant capital flexibility, and lower downside risk to earnings if unemployment moves higher, all support the insurers. However, we believe the market remains focused on bank PTPP momentum (NIM, capital markets) and the expected improvement in credit (H2/26 as per bank guidance).
“At this time, we are not making a call between the insurers and banks. We believe the strong momentum in bank earnings (stronger than the life companies) is balanced by the disparity in valuation and what we continue to view as a lower-risk profile of the life companies. In the context of risk, we highlight the downside to bank earnings associated with a) an unfavourable CUSMA outcome on commercial credit and b) pressure on consumers from mortgage refinancing and higher oil prices. Our top picks among the life insurance names are SLF and IAG, and in the banking space we favour BMO ($199.73, Buy) and RY ($237.86, Buy).”
When FirstService Corp. (FSV-Q, FSV-T) reports first-quarter results on April 23, TD Cowen analyst Tim James sees “improving year-over-year Roofing comps, restoration potential and re-iteration of full-year outlook as likely to support stock and lay groundwork for eventual move higher.”
“We have reviewed comparable and recent FirstService multiples, and still believe multiple expansion is warranted as the company moves beyond a period of sub-optimal weather-related impacts, slower customer capital expenditures and HOA community budget pressures,” he said. “However, we are resetting our multiple expectations to the mid-point of pre-pandemic relationships with comps, leading to 17-times target forward EBITDA multiple (2 times vs comps) and 27 times fwd P/E (4 times vs comps). ... There could be multiple upside potential beyond our target though we don’t think investors should make decisions based on expectations for a return to 2023/2024 multiples.”
Expecting the quarterly release to be “slightly negative for share price,” Mr. James is currently projecting EBITDA for the period of US$104-million, which is flat year-over-year matches the Street’s expectation. He sees adjusted earnings per share of 86 US cents, down 6 US cents from the first quarter of fiscal 2024 and 3 US cents under the consensus.
“We highlight a resumption of normal storm trends as a potential catalyst given minimal (approx. 2 per cent of Restoration revenue vs 10-per-cent historical average) named-storm revenue in 2025,” he noted. “If named-storm revenue returns to historical average in 2026, we estimate 2-per-cent/5-per-cent upside to 2026 revenue/adj EBITDA forecast.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating, he reduced his target to US$201 from US$217. The average is now US$207.
“Limited trade/tariff/political exposure and good growth set-up for 2026 should drive share price upside,” said Mr. James.
CIBC World Markets analyst Todd Coupland expects to see “strong” first-quarter results and full-year outlook when Celestica Inc. (CLS-N, CLS-T) reports after the bell on April 28.
“We continue to view management’s guidance — and current FactSet consensus for Q1 and 202 6— as conservative, reflecting improved visibility into capex plans at key hyperscalers (GOOGL, META, AMZN) and OpenAI,” he said. “Since March 2022, results have exceeded consensus by an average of approximately 5 per cent on revenue and 10 per cent on EPS. Notably, the 2025 results were 20 per cent higher than the initial Outlook provided in October 2024. Recent announcements suggest this trend has continued and is pulling forward customer demand from 2027 into 2026, supporting our positive thesis.”
Maintaining his “outperformer” rating for shares of the Toronto-based electronics manufacturer, Mr. Coupland raised his target to US$425 from US$360. The average is US$377.11.
“We believe this change is supported by improved visibility and is broadly consistent with higher networking and EMS peer valuations,” he said. “We raised our target multiples for Celestica to reflect improved visibility to upward revisions in AI datacentre capex spending from significantly improved model performance.
“Celestica’s improved visibility reflects its leadership in data centre networking switches and expanding enterprise server programs. We also see a clearer multi-year ramp-up for 1.6T networking programs starting in late 2026 and accelerating into 2027, supported by multiple customers and its strategic partners including AVGO.”
National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen is expecting “another soft quarter” for TFI International Inc. (TFII-T) when the Montreal-based transportation and logistics services provider reports results on April 27, seeing overall freight demand remaining “weak” and emphasizing a recent spike in oil prices has “injected some uncertainty around the broader economy and an ultimate recovery” in levels.
“Although overall freight volumes remained soft to start 2026, regulatory changes/enforcement in both the U.S. and Canada are spurring trucking capacity exiting the market,” he added. “One broad-based measure of transportation capacity in the U.S. we track is the Logistics Manager’s Transportation Capacity Index which initially collapsed 13.1 points in December to 36.9. The index has been in contraction territory each month since then with the most recent reading from March coming in at 39.2, down 1.8 points from February.”
While he sees industry capacity still “rationalizing,” Mr. Doerksen thinks pricing trends are “positive” currently.
“Based on mid-quarter updates from some of TFII’s U.S. LTL [less-than-truckload] peers, end market conditions in Q1 were somewhat mixed, but overall still relatively soft with shipments per day and tons per day mostly flat to down year-over-year,” he said. “However, U.S. dry van spot prices were up 26.6 per cent year-over-year in March with contract rates up 13.8 per cent year-over-year. While some of the rate increase can be explained by higher fuel prices, we note that rates were rising ahead of the recent spike in fuel prices reflecting a better underlying pricing environment that is being driven by truck capacity rationalization. Recent positive PMI readings point to a possible rebound in U.S. industrial activity, which would be positive for TFII given its exposure to industrial freight in its Truckload segment.”
Given that optimistic view, Mr. Doerksen raised his target for TFI shares to $190 from $173, keeping an “outperform” rating and seeing its valuation “still reasonable.” The average is currently $172.48.
“Based on our updated 2026 estimates (which assumes earnings that are still depressed), TFII shares are trading at 24.9 times P/E versus the weighted average peer group at 31.1 times,” he explained. “Based on 2026 EV/EBITDA, TFII is trading at 11.0 times, which is a slight discount to the weighted average peers at 11.6x times Based on our 2026 free cash flow forecast, the current FCF yield is 7.9 per cent.
“We continue to value TFII using a sum-of-parts based on our 2027 forecast. However, to reflect the expansion in peer group multiples driven by improved investor sentiment around the trucking sector, we are increasing our LTL segment multiple to 9.5 times (was 9.0 times), our TL segment multiple to 8.5 times (was 8.0 times), and our Logistics segment multiple to 12.0 times (was 11.0 times). After these multiple adjustments and our mostly minor forecast changes, our new target is $190.00.”
In other analyst actions:
* In his weekly note on Canadian exploration and production energy companies, Canaccord Genuity’s Mike Mueller upgraded Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE-T) to “buy” from “hold” with a $7 target, up from $5.25, and Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE-T) to “buy” from “hold” with a $14 target, up from $10 after increasing his near- and long-term oil assumptions. The averages are $5.79 and $10.63, respectively.
* Citing valuation concerns alongside limited upside for copper prices and operational uncertainties, Goldman Sachs’ Marcio Farid downgraded Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-N, ERO-T) to “neutral” from “buy” with a US$31 target, down from US$33 and below the US$35.50.
* While he sees a “good entry point” to North American waste services providers “with upward bias to price and commodities,” Citi’s Bryan Burgmeier trimmed his GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL-N, GFL-T) target to US$51 from US$55 with a “buy” rating, remaining below the US$56.74 average on the Street.
“We’re updating estimates to reflect Frontier Waste and other bolt-on acquisitions completed in 1Q, as well as marking-to-market the recycled commodity prices and modestly raising revenue est. to reflect fuel surcharges. Our updated estimates do not include Secure Waste Infrastructure as the deal has yet to close,” said Mr. Burgmeier.
He added: “We view 1Q earnings as a solid entry-point for Waste considering higher expectations for broader U.S. inflation (bullish for lagging restricted pricing) and long-awaited recovery in recycled commodity prices; after recent underperformance, large-cap Solid Waste is trading in-line with its 10-yr avg. valuation at 13.6 times on ’27 EBITDA, the lowest point since 4Q’23. We’re sticking with WM as our top pick given derisked earnings growth (completed Sustainability investments, Healthcare cost synergies) and compelling valuation, along with some lingering questions at peers (RSG ES slowdown, WCN Chiquita). We see CLH as best positioned in the current environment considering potential upside to U.S. chemicals production and higher prices for base oils & lubricants.”
Elsewhere, JP Morgan’s Tami Zakaria downgraded GFL to “underweight” from “neutral” with a US$42 target, down from US$49, on concerns over the Secure deal.
* Acumen Capital’s Nick Corcoran initiated coverage of Mississauga-based NeuPath Health Inc. (NPTH-X), a healthcare services company that operates a network of chronic pain treatment clinics in Ontario and Alberta, with a “buy” rating and 95-cent target. The average is 77 cents.
“NPTH operates in a recession-resistant industry with increased demand for chronic pain treatments and an aging population,” he said. “Demand favours the multi-disciplinary operating model that NPTH provides, positioning them as a leader in the space.
“Shares trade at an attractive valuation. NPTH currently trades at 3.2 times 2027 estimated EV/Adj. EBITDA compared to the peer group average of 9.6 times.”
* Following the closing of its $40-million financing last week, Ventum Capital Markets’ Rob Goff raised his Stack Capital Group Inc. (STCK-T) target to a high on the Street of $29 from $23 with a “buy” rating, while Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige raised his target to $28.50 from $21 with a “buy” rating. The average is $22.
“We are confident in selecting STCK as a conviction Buy given its stewardship capabilities and structural advantages as a liquid, publicly listed vehicle that offers exposure to the steep value-creation curve of marquee, private technology businesses within a focused portfolio,” Mr. Goff said.
* Wells Fargo’s Jason Haas lowered his target on Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-Q, TRI-T) to US$87 from US$95, keeping an “equal weight” rating. The average is US$130.92.