Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Citing valuation concerns following recent share price appreciation, National Bank Financial analyst Ahmed Abdullah downgraded Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-N, NTR-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
“We are moving NTR to Sector Perform following a 14-per-cent increase in the share price since our July 12 initiation,” he said. “Our Outperform rating rested on a re-rating toward average multiples from a discounted starting point; at $74 to $75, that gap has closed. NTR now trades at 7.0 times 2027 estimated EBITDA and 7.1 times on our mid-cycle (MC) EBITDA of $6.3-billion, versus 6.1 times and 6.3 times at initiation and offers an average 2026E/2027E FCF yield of 7 per cent versus 9 per cent previously. With the shares above our prior $74 target, risk/reward is balanced.”
“We believe a modestly higher multiple is warranted, but the revision reflects more of peer multiple dynamics and not earnings changes at this juncture. Our comp group (fertilizer, chemicals, ag retail/distribution) has re-rated to an average 7.7 times 2027E EBITDA from 7.2 times at initiation. At 7.25 times, NTR sits between its three-year average of 7 times and its longer-term average since 2018 of 7.5x, with a narrower 7-per-cent discount to peers (from 16 per cent at initiation).”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Abdullah said his investment thesis for the Saskatoon-based fertilizer giant remains unchanged despite the rating revision, emphasizing “execution is key to further upside”
“NTR’s 2Q26 results brought a higher low end to potash volume guidance with Canpotex fully committed through 3Q, capex trimmed by $50-million to $1.95-2.05-billion, buybacks accelerated to $75-million/month, and leverage improved to 1.9 times (from 2.1 times at 1Q),” he explained.
“To get constructive again we look for a lower entry point in addition to nitrogen volume recovery post-Lima/Redwater turnarounds, retail N/K applications moving back toward historical averages, and a phosphate resolution (review in shortlisting; management expects outcome by year-end). A conclusion to the review of the phosphate business or better than expected potash volumes would be key sources to forecast revisions. We look for the next key catalysts for the story; which could potentially come at NTR’s investor day on November 30 in Toronto.”
His target for Nutrien’s U.S.-listed shares rose to US$77 from US$74. The average on the Street is currently US$76.21.
National Bank Financial analyst Travis Wood sees Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T) entering the second half of 2026 with “accelerating upstream momentum from key oil sands assets, and downstream tailwinds from record crack spreads.”
However, he emphasized its stock “continues to trade at a discount to the peers, providing what we think is an attractive window relative to the group, notably as continued execution gains market appreciation.”
“This strong upstream contribution helps generate ample FCF which we estimate will be 100-per-cent return of capital by the end of the year,” said Mr. Wood. “Since moving CVE to our #1 oil sands pick in April (dethroning SU after almost two years exactly), CVE has outperformed the peers by an average of 18 per cent (as of last Friday) and we see continued outperformance based on the stock’s relative value and outlook.”
In a client note, the analyst said the Calgary-based company’s “improving” operations have been further bolstered by commodity price tailwinds, “including a view of sustained higher for longer crack spreads.”
“Asset-level performance has added volumes sooner than expected, with our estimates (and public data) pointing to production levels greater than 1.0 mmbbl/d in July,” he noted."
Mr. Wood reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and $60 target for Cenovus shares. The average is $49.74.
“Valuation remains a discount to the peers, trading at more than a 1.5-times turn discount to the group,” he sad. “On our current estimates, CVE trades at a 4.8 times 2027E EV/DACF multiple and a 12.7-per-cent FCF yield, compared to the peers at 6.4 times and 8.3 per cent, respectively. We believe continued execution and a shift to 100% FCF return (we estimate later this year) will support multiple expansion over time, while the current valuation provides a relative baseline.”
TD Cowen analyst Sam Damiani thinks H&R REIT’s (HR.UN-T) $3.4-billion takeover bid from GO REIT (GO.U-T) “remains underwhelming” following further disclosures and analysis.
“Last week’s decline in consensus estimates for GO REIT make it harder to see incremental value from the proposed transaction,” he said. “Contracts newly disclosed indicate the impossibility of isolate value specific to CRAL [the holding company for the family of H&R chief executive officer Tom Hofstedter], and that public unitholders could face a higher tax bill.”
“The bottom line from our perspective is that this proposed transaction’s $12/unit stated value ($11/unit currently) for public unitholders falls short of our $15/unit NAV estimate mainly due to the premium being received by CRAL, Blackstone, and CrestPSP as a group, what appears to be unusually high overall transaction costs, and the decline in GO’s unit price.”
With the Street’s estimates for GO REIT having fallen since the release of its second-quarter results on Aug. 14, with net asset value down 18 per cent and 2027 estimated adjusted funds from operations sliding 7 per cent , Mr. Damiani thinks the deal with H&R would “mathematically further dilute GO’s consensus NAV by 17 per cent, aggregating a 32-per-cent proforma NAV reduction since Aug. 10.”
“It appears that there is no intention to reveal the sale prices of the Industrial properties to Blackstone and CrestPSP, according to newly disclosed contracts on Sedarplus,” he added. “This makes it impossible to accurately estimate the value accruing specifically to the CRAL insider group, and renders unusable much of the related analysis we included in last week’s note.
“Now, we are only able to assess with some accuracy the combined asset value that would remain before CRAL, Blackstone and CrestPSP divide them up. We estimate their NAV to be $714-million, based on $2.3-billion of asset value less $1.4-billion of debt and $0.2-billion of assumed transaction costs/GO income support. Estimating the NAV specific to CRAL is not possible as it requires knowledge of the price Blackstone and CrestPSP will pay for the Industrial properties, which is not available.
With his NAV reduction, Mr. Damiani trimmed his H&R target further to $11 from $11.50, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is $11.60.
“Despite the lower target return, we reiterate the BUY on the belief that more value could be surfaced if peer valuations improve,” he said.
“Our investment thesis for H&R centres on the REIT either becoming a pure-play apartment REIT by 2027 (by completing non-core dispositions) or completing the proposed merger/go-private transaction with GO REIT. We struggle to see incremental value being surfaced by the proposed merger/go-private transaction with GO REIT and see a better medium-term risk/return profile and clearer potential upside during the next recovery cycle by H&R creating its own pure-play apartment REIT. Absent the proposed merger/go-private transaction with GO REIT, we believe the REIT’s unit price is poised to respond favourably to a turnaround in U.S. sunbelt apartment property market fundamentals, expected in the near/medium term.”
TD Cowen analyst Derek Lessard sees “meaningful incremental value” in shares of High Tide Inc. (HITI-X).
“HITI continues to execute well, in our view; Q3 guidance topped consensus, positive Jun./Jul. SSSG [same-store sales growth] validates Cabana Club, and Remexian’s 60-per-cent year-over-year volume growth - plus a path to 15-per-cent margins - supports international share gains. Despite this, shares are down more than 30 per cent over the last year. Our SOTP [sum-of-the-parts] analysis supports our TP and a $10–11 bull case share price. HITI is our top cannabis pick.”
In a client note released Tuesday, Mr. Lessard said the Calgary-based cannabis company’s preliminary third-quarter results, which were revealed on Aug. 4, “reinforce the improving setup.”
“Revenue and adj. EBITDA were well ahead of consensus, with positive Jun./Jul. SSS underscoring the resilience of Cabana Club despite a still-challenging consumer backdrop,” he said. “This supports our view that HITI can continue to take traffic from smaller operators while using white label, ELITE memberships, and data analytics to lift margins. Taken together with disciplined store growth, we see a durable runway for domestic earnings upside.
“Remexian is quickly becoming the next leg of growth. Legacy biomass delays weighed on early results, but quarterly volumes have since moved into the double digits, rising 60 per cent year-over-year Concurrently, market share has more than doubled since the acquisition. Canadian sourcing has also reduced procurement costs by 30–40 per cent, which should pave a path to midteens EBITDA margins. We believe a combination of improved volumes, better sourcing, and operating leverage can drive meaningful earnings upside.”
Also seeing Remexian “well-positioned between Germany’s fast-growing medical market and Canada’s deep supplier network, supporting continued international share gains,” Mr. Lessard said his SOTP analysis “highlights how little of this momentum is reflected in the shares.”
He reaffirmed a “buy” rating and $6.50 target. The average is $7.55.
“Curaleaf’s US$4–5 bid for Aurora provides a useful benchmark for Remexian, even though we believe it undervalues Aurora and EU-GMP assets more broadly,” he added. “Applying these implied takeover multiples to Remexian easily supports our $6.50 target, while a reasonable bull case suggests value of $10–11 per share. With the stock down more than 30 per cent over the last year, we believe HITI’s domestic execution, international growth and embedded asset value create an especially compelling entry point.”
ATB Cormark analyst Richard Gray thinks Radisson Mining Resources Inc. (RDS-X) is poised to benefit from a $57.2-million strategic investment by Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T) “in several ways.”
“Not only is it a significant validation of the project by one of the world’s largest and most respected gold companies, but it provides the capital to access the underground mineralization at O’Brien that will assist in further de-risking the project,” he said.
Shares of Rouyn-Noranda, Que.-based Radisson, which owns the O’Brien gold project in the Abitibi region, jumped almost 26 per cent on Monday following the premarket announcement of the deal , which sees Agnico Eagle agree to subscribe for and purchase 53.4 million shares at $1.07 per unit.
“While the private placement is mildly dilutive (shares issued at 0.38 times NAV), our NAV only declines to $2.70 (from $2.80) as the increase in the share price (up 73 per cent over the last eight weeks, including 26 per cent on Monday) results in a reduction in the future dilution to hypothetically fund construction (we assume 40 per cent of the initial capital cost is funded with equity),” said Mr. Gray. “However, due to the strong de-risking effect of the strategic investment with a tier-one gold producer, we are increasing our target price.”
With his unchanged “outperform” rating for Radisson shares, he raised his target to $2.45 from $2.25. The average is $2.12.
“Radisson is in an excellent position to aggressively drill and delineate more ounces at O’Brien ahead of what we believe will be an eventual acquisition of the company, whether by Agnico or by other companies in the region with under-utilized processing facilities,” he said.
In other analyst actions:
* Canaccord Genuity’s Carey MacRury raised his target for shares of Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC-T) to $47 from $40 with a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is
“Allied’s Q2/26 were in line with our estimates, but more importantly, Kurmuk continues to advance towards production, with commissioning underway and production expected in September. We see Kurmuk driving a meaningful increase in production and FCF, with production rising from 379koz in 2025 to 498koz in 2026, and 657 in 2027 and improving FCF from -$99M in 2025 to $97-million in 2026 and $840-million in 2027 (26-per-cent FCF yield). Kurmuk also diversifies the company’s production base, with 38 per cent of our forecast 2027E production coming from Kurmuk, while Mali’s share declines from 50 per cent to 32 per cent in 2027,” said Mr. MacRury.
* Mr. MacRury also increased his Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX-T) target to $73 from $68 with a “buy” rating. The average is $72.73.
“The company is tracking well against its 2026 guidance of 2.90-3.25Moz with H1 production of 1.52Moz, but the midpoint suggests a potential seventh year of declining gold production. That said, Barrick expects gold production to increase to ~3.5Moz in 2027 and 3.6Moz in 2028. The company continues to advance a potential IPO of a minority interest in its North American assets following the settlement of the dispute with Newmont. As part of the settlement, Barrick will add Fourmile to the NGM JV while Newmont will contribute Mike and Fiberline. The net result is Newmont paying Barrick $1.95-billion. We carried Fourmile in our model at $13.2-billion, equating to $5-billion for Newmont’s 38.5-per-cent stake. On its conference call, management noted that Mike and Fiberline add 6.4Moz, however, Newmont doesn’t include these deposits in its reserve and resource statements and there is little disclosure on these assets. Our BUY rating is based on Barrick’s high-quality asset portfolio and inexpensive valuation trading at 0.73 times NAV, below its closest peers, Newmont and Agnico, both at 0.99 times, and below its historical average of 0.79 times,” said Mr. MacRury.
* Stifel’s Cole McGill raised his target for Lithium Argentina Ag (LAR-N, LAR-T) to US$13 from US$11 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$11.50.
“LAR has executed two significant transactions to align the balance sheet ($180-million convert due 2032, replacing $259-million due 2027) for growth (PPG JV finalized with Ganfeng, including joint governance + pro rata offtake rights),” said Mr. McGill. “We think the termed-out balance sheet better positions LAR for growth optionality (Cauchari Phase II). The transaction minimizes project-level dilution as LAR/Ganfeng seek partnerships to derisk the project capital stack. We have often likened the Argentine Puna as a ‘lithium monopoly board,’ where there are five basins (Hombre Muerto, Cauchari, Olaroz, PG, Pozuelos) hosting +400mg/L Li and compelling impurity ratios (direct function for cost), uniquely insulated from discovery dilution. LAR’s growth projects fit these criteria, and position favourably on the cost curve, critically important for through cycle profitability in a volatile commodity. Trading at 6.9 times 2027E EBITDA vs. peers at 7.2 times, we see PPG valued at 0.15 times P/NAV, providing upside to growth execution.”