Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While Empire Co. Ltd. (EMP.A-T) reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings that fell in-line with the Street’s expectations, National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar warns the “underlying trends were mixed.”
“EMP gained market share in conventional and maintained position in discount; price perception for EMP improved amid continued search for value by customers,” he said in a client note. “EMP may accelerate square footage growth beyond F2027 as it aims to gain market share in discount (the fastest-growing grocery space), which we view positively The impact related to the tariff dispute with the U.S. is nascent, although Empire does not anticipate significant pressure at this stage.”
On Thursday, the Stellarton, N.S.-based retailer, which owns chains including Sobeys, Safeway, IGA, Farm Boy and discounter FreshCo, reported earnings per share of $1.04, matching the projections of both Mr. Shreedhar and the Street and a gain of 13 cents from the same period a year ago. However, he estimates core EPS was flattish year-over-year after excluding several items, including pension gains of 7 cents and improvements of 6 cents from the adjustments to its Voilà e-commerce business.
Empire yet to see Buy-Canadian sentiment show up on bottom line
Food same-store sales growth of 1.2 per cent was a decline of 0.7 per cent from the same period in fiscal 2026 and missed the analyst’s 1.5-per-cent estimate.
“EMP indicated F2027E EPS to be at the high end of its 8-11-per-cent growth target (NBCCM is 11 per cent; the equity interest in Genstar was disposed for a gain of $4-million),” said Mr. Shreedhar. “Greater than 25 new stores are now expected (from more than 20; approximately 2-per-cent square footage growth, including Mayrand acquisition), while new stores are meeting/exceeding expectations.”
In response to the quarterly release, Mr. Shreedhar trimmed his 2027 and 2028 EPS forecasts to $3.61 and $3.89, respectively, from $3.64 and $3.99.
Keeping a “sector perform” rating for Empire shares, he reduced his target to $54 from $56. The average target on the Street is $55.57.
“We remain on the sidelines as we evaluate EMP’s ability to deliver consistent growth; the valuation discount versus peers, in part, compensates investors for a long-term fluctuating earnings track record,” he said.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $53 from $57 with a “buy” rating.
“Although EPS growth at the high end of 8–11-per-cent guidance was reiterated for FY27, we believe the soft food SSSG (ex fuel) print of 1.2 per cent contributed to the stock’s underperformance (down 3.1 per cent vs S&P/TSX down 1.1 per cent). As consumers navigate challenging conditions, focusing on loyalty, targeted promos, own brand, value size and expansion in discount will be key to reviving food SSSG alongside investor confidence. We expect the valuation discount to persist in the near term (approximately 12 times forward P/E vs 16 times for MRU and 22 times for L),” said Mr. Li.
* Scotia’s John Zamparo to $48 from $50 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Trade-down appears to be accelerating among Canadian consumers amidst higher fuel prices and greater uncertainty, and we expect EMP.a to trade primarily on comps and margin growth near-term. Prudent SG&A management should protect earnings, so we believe EPS growth can approach the high end of the 8-11-per-cent target,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $52 from $53 with a “hold” rating.
“Q1/F27 EPS was in line with consensus, a combination of softer than anticipated Food Sales/SSSG offset by better-than-forecast SG&A inclusive of anticipated benefits. Management maintained F2027 EPS growth at the high end of its 8-11-per-cent target; however, underlying Retail growth and its relative position in Discount/Pharmacy/e-commerce relative to peers likely to mute near-term multiple expansion,” said Mr. James.
Following “strong” second-quarter financial results, Stifel analyst Martin Landry sees “a long growth runway” for Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T).
“Comparable store sales grew 10.3 per cent year-over-year, above our expectations of 9.0 per cent and consensus of 9.9 per cent,” he explained. “Comparable sales improved progressively throughout Q2/26, exiting the quarter at a slightly higher pace which has been keeping up post-quarter. This suggests an accelerating growth profile when looked on a two-year stacked basis. GRGD trades at 15 times forward earnings, in line with peers, but in our view deserves a higher premium given higher growth prospects, clean balance sheet and impressive track record since the IPO.”
Shares of the Montreal-based clothing retailer, which is behind the Dynamite and Garage brand names, closed up 4 per cent on Thursday after it reported earnings per share for the quarter of 96 cents, up 69 per cent year-over-year and exceeding both Mr. Landry’s 77-cent estimate and the consensus projection of 80 cents. Gross margins improved 5.2 per cent from the same period a year ago to 69 per cent, which is the highest level in the last four years and above the analyst’s 66-per-cent expectation.
“While the expansion is impressive, GRGD lapped an easier comparable period due to the impact from lower tariffs,” said Mr. Landry. “Lower tariffs represented approximately 50 per cent of the gross margin expansion, followed by IMU expansion and U.S. DC [distribution centre] cost savings. SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales decreased by 210 basis points year-over-year to 25 per cent on good fixed cost absorption. This translated into an EBITDA margin of 44 per cent, up 740 basis points year-over-year, above our estimate of 40% and the highest level in the last 4 years.”
“During the quarter, comparable sales growth improved progressively each month,” added the analyst. “Management highlighted current quarter-to-date trends appear slightly stronger than the pace achieved in Q2/26. Canadian sales were down approximately 2 per cent year-over-year, the first decline in the last 4 years. However, we estimate that it is mostly driven by store closures and not in-store performance.”
With that momentum, Groupe Dynamite increased its full-year 2026 EBITDA margin and comparable sales store growth guidance. The new targets topped the Street’s forecast, which Mr. Landry expects to drive upwards earnings revisions.
“Guidance suggests an increase in H2/26 comparable store sales of 11.25 per cent year-over-year, using the midpoint, representing an acceleration of growth when looking at it on a two-year stacked basis,” he explained. “The revised guidance suggests a 70 basis points H2/26 EBITDA margin expansion which is stemming from IMU expansion and DC cost savings.
“Store portfolio optimization is a multi-year growth opportunity. Groupe Dynamite has 57 per cent of its store network in what it categorizes as investment grade real estate locations. The goal is to increase this ratio 70 per cent by fiscal year 2028. Our analysis suggests that the company will need to relocate/renovate 32 stores over the next 2.5 years to achieve the 70-per-cent threshold. Recall, stores in investment grade locations generate 4-5 times the revenues non-investment grade locations, with the gap for earnings being even larger. Hence, this optimization of the store portfolio mix should drive significant revenue growth and earnings growth for the coming years. This is a unique tailwind to GRGD, which we feel is underappreciated by investors.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for Groupe Dynamite shares, Mr. Landry raised his target to $78 from $73 after increases of 6.9 per cent and 5.1 per cent to our FY27 EPS and EBITDA estimates, respectively. The average target on the Street is $89.23.
“At 15-times forward earnings, we see GRGD’s valuation as very appealing given the high growth prospects,” he said.
Elsewhere, other target revisions include:
* RBC’s Irene Nattel to $104 from $107 with an “outperform” rating.
“Q2 reinforces our view of GRGD as a compelling SMID-cap name with sector-leading growth outlook and optionality for FCF deployment. GRGD’s offering/positioning continue to prove sticky with its evolving core constituencies, and the Company’s agile, low inventory/asset-light/strong FCF business model moderates enterprise risk and should enable GRGD to rapidly adjust should demand slow unexpectedly. SSS normalizing as expected off exceptional PY [past year] comps, but total revenue up 30 per cent year-over-year and record EBITDA margin of 44.3 per cent underscore sustainability and broadening of the growth algorithm.,” he said.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan to $113 from $108 with a “buy” rating.
“In our view, Groupe Dynamite’s store economics should continue to improve as the reconfiguration of its store base increases the company’s exposure to higher-tier shopping centres. Combined with average unit retail expansion above inflation, a shorter production cycle for its SKUs, and ample white space in both the U.S. and international markets for its brands, we see plenty of opportunity for Groupe Dynamite to improve its impressive returns on invested capital, which are already at the high end of its peer group. The peer group is currently trading at 10.1 times FY2 GAAP EV/EBITDA. Therefore, we are comfortable assigning a premium target multiple to Groupe Dynamite shares,” said Mr. Hannan.
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $85 from $90 with a “buy” rating.
“The strong 2Q results show attractive growth in the U.S. supported by premiumization of the store network, increasing brand heat, AUR growth and strong new store productivity. Despite macro uncertainty, the guidance increase reflects the sustainability of these trends. Improving macro conditions and better visibility on Canada are key catalysts. Valuation (approximately 17 times forward P/E) is supported by mid- to high-teen EPS growth next year, a strong balance sheet and solid FCF supporting capital return,” said Mr. Li.
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $93 from $91 with an outperform" rating.
“We maintain a favourable disposition on GRGD; investment in GRGD is differentiated by strong financial metrics, with an EBITDA margin and ROIC that are the highest in our coverage universe (F2025 EBITDA margin of 36.5 per cent and ROIC of 70.3 per cent; these metrics continue to improve further),” said Mr. Shreedhar.
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $80 from $85 with a “buy” rating.
“Q2/F26 was strong, beating all key metrics/raising its F2026 outlook. Despite this, investor focus seems overwhelmed by the broader macro backdrop/rising U.S. yields and potential future impact upon consumer resiliency, leading to industry multiple compression. With industry-leading metrics, strong FCF/net cash, runway for U.S. expansion, and an active NCIB, we see a favorable risk/return,” said Mr. Morrison.
* Scotia’s John Zamparo to $75 from $70 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“GRGD’s excellent quarter was inadequately rewarded by the Street in our view, as multiple strengths were on display: ability to quickly pivot in order to drive comps; continued meaningful upside in margins; and contributions to sales growth from the upscaling of real estate strategy. GRGD still trades at just 16 times next-year’s earnings while its business looks well positioned for next year given a strategic focus on activewear, which aligns with its customer base’s tastes and preferences, and a long-term runway for store growth. This becomes one of our top picks as we see apparel holding in through a potentially worsening consumer environment in 2H/26,” said Mr. Zamparo.
Banyan Gold Corp. (BYN-X) is “growing the next deposit with scale in the Yukon,” according to Desjardins Securities analyst Simon Wildsmith.
In a client report released before the bell on Friday, he initiated coverage of the Vancouver-based mineral exploration company, which owns 100 per cent of the AurMac gold development project, with a “buy” rating as it moves toward a maiden preliminary economic assessment (PEA) in the second half of 2026 and is currently undertaking the largest-ever exploration program on the property.
“We see the strong existing infrastructure and lack of key wildlife concerns as supporting permitting timelines for the project; we model first production in 2033 following project financing in 2030,” said Mr. Wildsmith. “With the recently suspended Eagle gold mine to the north (approximately 35 kilometres) currently in receivership with PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), discussions between the receiver and Boroo Pte. for a potential sale could further validate the district, support regional infrastructure and provide other opportunities if a sale is successful.”
“Supported by 3.64 million ounces gold indicated and 25 per cent of the inferred resource of 4.98 million ounces, we model a 40,000 tons per day open pit operation and a conventional leach/CIP processing facility producing 260,000 ounces annually over a 17- year minelife at LOM AISC [life-of-mine all-in sustaining cost] of US$1,826/oz. Following a maiden PEA expected in 2H26, we anticipate work on a PFS to commence and see the YESAB process kicking off in 2027 or 2028, putting the project on track for first production in 2033, in our view.”
In justifying his bullish view, the analyst emphasized the importance of the miner’s experienced team.
“Banyan has been led by CEO Tara Christie since 2016,” he noted. “She is a founding board member of the Yukon Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Board (YESAB)—a key development step for mining projects in the territory—and was previously the president of the privately owned Gimlex Gold Mines, one of the Yukon’s largest placer mining operations.”
Also seeing the potential completion of a sale of the adjacent Eagle mine in the near term as a possible catalyst for Banyan shares, Mr. Wildsmith set a target of $3 per share. The average is $2.75.
In a separate client report, Mr. Wildsmith initiated coverage of Toronto-based Hemlo Mining Corp. (HMMC-T), which is focused on operating and enhancing the Hemlo gold camp in northwestern Ontario, with a “buy” rating.
“Since closing the open pit in 2020 and transitioning to an underground (UG)-only operation, HMMC has operated far below nameplate processing capacity,” he said. “We see the new team, led by former President and CEO Jason Kosec, breathing fresh life into the asset.”
The analysts did admit he’s modelling “a relatively conservative case guided by the 2025 technical report (TR).”
“We see upside as the company seeks to leverage underutilized infrastructure, optimize the UG mine plan, and expand the resource on the back of a record 130,000m 2026 exploration program,” said Mr. Wildsmith. “Details regarding a potential ramp-up in underground production and a new resource are expected with an updated technical report in 2H26 or 2027.”
He sees Hemlo increasing the utilization of existing capacity and infrastructure moving forward while optimizing the mine plan and reducing costs.
“HMMC is an UG-only operation since 2020, with the Williams UG producing 3,800 tons per day of ore (below the 10,000tpd processing capacity),” he said. “HMMC plans to leverage this infrastructure through reinvestment in the UG, while two existing ramps could also collectively support 5,000tpd of material out of the underground. Longer-term, the company also contemplates reopening the Golden Giant shaft”
“HMMC aims to optimize the UG operation by transitioning back to an owner-operator model (completed in March) and transitioning select mining in the UG to overhand mining, and optimize the utilization of waste rock to improve materials handling.”
He set a target of $10.50 per share, which is narrowly under the $10.88 average.
In other analyst actions:
* Stifel’s Cole McGill raised his Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA-T) target to $56 from $39, keeping a “buy” rating. The average target on the Street is $40.93.
“Earlier this week, AYA released an updated PEA on the Boumadine Project,” he said. “We think the most meaningful update over the 2025 PEA is the increase in precious metal payabilities, informed by more than ten months of stockpile reclaim sales, derisking future customer agreements (high Ag + S rich concentrates are expected to be in strong demand due to supply chain risks from SoH). Higher payabilities drive two factors we think the market is overlooking at current valuation:i) increase in torque to the drill bit, where every additional year of mine life is Boumadine NAV accretive by 6 per cent, a 22.7-per-cent increase vs prior, and ii) increase in torque to Ag+Au pricing, where a 10-per-cent increase is 13-per-cent accretive to AYA corporate NAVPS vs prior.”
* Scotia’s Kevin Krishnaratne increased his The Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSGX-Q, DSG-T) target to US$98 from US$95 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is US$113.
“Organic services growth ex-FX held just north of 9 per cent, ahead of the 8.5 per cent we modelled and in line with Q1, with GTI, ecommerce customs filings, MacroPoint, and fleet performance again doing the heavy lifting against a freight backdrop that remains soft. DSGX put $220-million to work on Tai and Extensiv after quarter-end, with management noting that fewer bidders and softer software multiples are finally resetting private market expectations in DSGX’s favour. We move our target to $98 (from $95) based on 17.5 times EV/EBITDA on F2028E, as we reflect recent M&A (Tai and Extensiv), and we maintain our Sector Outperform rating. In our view, DSGX remains one of the best-in-class SaaS firms in our coverage leveraged to Logistics/SCM tailwinds, bolstered by robust operating leverage, a re-accelerating M&A cadence, and an expanding suite of AI-driven capabilities,” he said.
* ATB Cormark’s Gavin Fairweather trimmed his target for shares of D2L Inc. (DTOL-T) to $16 from $17, remaining above the $13.21 average, with an “outperform” rating. Elsewhere, CIBC’s Erin Kyle downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “outperformer” with an $11 target, falling from $16.
“The U.S. K-12 customer loss this quarter was larger than we had modelled and contributed to growth below our expectations. As a result of the churn, we estimate subscription growth will remain in the mid-single-digit range over the next several quarters as D2L laps prior periods that included the lost revenue. While we do not anticipate additional K-12 churn from here, core ARR growth of 10 per cent year-over-year also decelerated. Absent a reacceleration in core ARR growth, we expect F2028 growth will fall below management’s target range of 10-15 per cent and model 8-per-cent year-over-year revenue growth. While management struck a constructive tone on its pipeline and the opportunity to spark a broader AI-led replacement cycle, we note RFP volumes remain down and customer spending remains tight. While we continue to see potential upside from strength in corporate and international markets as well as M&A, we prefer to move to the sidelines until growth reaccelerates. We believe shares are unlikely to re-rate meaningfully higher until subscription growth returns to the 10-per--cent-plus range.,” said Ms. Kyle..
* Seeing a “growing pipeline offset near-term uncertainty,” Canaccord Genuity’s Robert Young downgraded Haivision Systems Inc. (HAI-T) to “hold” from “buy” with a $4 target, falling from $8 and below the average on the Street of $7.44.
“Haivision delivered a broadly inline FQ3 with modest sequential improvement in revenue and margins. However, the headwinds identified last quarter largely persisted. Management now estimates a 300 basis points nearterm gross margin drag from new U.S. tariffs due to 30 per cent of revenue being impacted after steps taken to reposition fulfillment to an existing U.S. facility. Management also expects FY26 revenue to be closer to the lower end of its $140-142-million guidance range amid continued customer procurement delays and uncertainty around U.S. government spending. On a positive note, no projects have been cancelled or de-scoped, the pipeline continues to grow, and early customer interest in the new product cycle (Kobra, Makito ONE, Kraken KX1) has been encouraging. That said, we have reduced our estimates to reflect headwinds on pipeline conversion and gross margins. While we remain optimistic on Haivision’s long-term opportunity, particularly in the defense segment, we are moving to HOLD from BUY given the reduced estimates and higher forecast risk,” explained Mr. Young.
* KeyBanc’s Salvator Tiano initiated coverage on Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-N, NTR-T) with a “sector weight” rating and US$73 target. The average is US$81.56.
“We are initiating coverage of the U.S. Chemicals and Agriculture sector against a mixed macro backdrop, including improving ag fundamentals, Iran war tailwinds, and industrial demand facing against poor housing demand, rising interest rates, and limited leverage to the AI/data center-driven boom, as well as our view of a structural oversupply in petrochemicals that is not expected to ease anytime soon,” he said. “Yet this is still a step-up from the highly unfavorable environment our coverage has experienced from late 2022 until 2025, supporting our more favorable stock rating stance.”
“We rate NTR at SW as we balance our bear thesis for the potash market through the end of the decade against improving ag fundamentals that could cap declines in fertilizer prices and support NTR’s Retail segment. Valuation appears reasonable as well at 7.9 times EV/EBITDA and 17.2 times P/E on our 2026 estimates when considering the premium multiple Retail deserves, in our view.”
* Seeing it “perfectly positioned to lead” commerce innovation due to its merchant-focused platform and potential for AI to reduced barriers of entry for new business builders, Bernstein SocGen Group’s Mark Shmulik initiated coverage on Shopify Inc. (SHOP-Q, SHOP-T) with an “outperform” rating and target of US$160. The average is US$172.58.
* ATB Cormark’s David McFadgen bumped his Transcontinental Inc. (TCL.A-T) target to $7 from $6 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $7.67.
“TCL just reported its Q3/F26 results that beat revenue and EBITDA expectations. Adj. Dil. EPS was in line with our expectations but was lower than consensus,“ said Mr. McFadgen. ”Management had a soft volume guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2026 outlining that retail services and printing revenue saw growth in Q3/F26 due to acquisitions. Despite this, it expects adjusted EBITDA to remain stable,”
“We continue to recommend TCL to investors, given its attractive valuation and our optimism around a multiple re-rate on the back of eventual organic growth, coupled with some M&A activity.”
* In response to Thursday’s quarterly release, which sent its shares plummeting 8.2 per cent, TD Cowen’s Tim James reduced his Transat A.T. Inc. (TRZ-T) target to $2 from $2.25 due to lower earnings per share estimates “resulting from increased amortization and higher forecast debt and correspondingly higher interest expense.” Elsewhere, other changes include: Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $2.50 from $2.80 with a “hold” rating and Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $1.65 from $2 with a “sector underperform” rating. The average is $2.21.
“Exposure to more price sensitive international leisure travelers, narrow margins and high leverage continue to drive volatile results. In the current environment of competition limiting yield expansion and higher jet fuel prices, we believe it is appropriate to wait for a better economic/industry backdrop that provides better visibility on long-term earnings potential before considering Transat,” said Mr. James, who kept a “hold” rating.
“We view the Transat franchise as strong with the potential to drive significant margin expansion once air travel conditions normalize (Cuba transition, jet fuel prices, economic backdrop) and all grounded aircraft return to service. We believe the pending loyalty program launch and cabin reconfiguration will provide financial benefits, though the impact build over a multi-year period. We may miss early upside in the stock, but prefer a lower risk/ higher certainty entry point as we believe there will still be significant medium- to long-term upside potential.”
* Reaffirming its spot on TD’s “Canada Best Ideas” list, analyst Aaron Bilkoski raised his target for Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T) to $21, topping the $20.15 average, from $18 with a “buy” rating.
“We believe there is underappreciated upside to WCP’s equity value given a strong chance that TD Cowen/Consensus expectations are too conservative based on the company’s long history of beats/raises. While valuation on the surface remains relatively attractive, we think WCP trades at a material discount to peers if some or all of this potential upside to volumes and CF is realized through 2027,” he said.
“WCP has achieved repeatable operating outperformance, which is increasingly translating into capital-allocation flexibility that is not fully reflected in the stock. WCP has repeatedly delivered more production with less capital and raised guidance. Looking into 2027E, its scale, deep multi-basin inventory, low leverage and substantial FCF support a compelling mix of share buybacks and a sustainable dividend while offering potential underappreciated growth optionality.”