Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil says Gibson Energy Inc.’s (GEI-T) Moose Jaw refinery “continues to see tailwinds in the current environment, including further strengthening in the 2-1-1 crack spread, which, as you may recall, enabled the Q2/26 beat.”
In a client note released before the bell, he raised his forecast for the Calgary-based company to reflect the impact of higher crack spreads as well as storage levels and WCS spreads with his full-year 2026 Marketing segment estimates “now more meaningfully above the top end of management’s $0-40 million guidance range.”
“Several regional 2-1-1 crack spreads continue to improve into Q3/26 from Q2/26 levels and set the stage for a very strong Q3/26 print for Gibson’s marketing segment,” he explained. “Our 2026 Marketing segment estimate increases to $47-million, up from $41-million previously and above management’s guidance of $0 to $40-million.
“We are intentionally taking a conservative approach to our marketing outlook and raised our estimates based on observable price trends on a seasonally adjusted basis, noting that the Moose Jaw refinery typically performs better in Q2/Q3 and features reduced performance in Q4/Q1. That said, we believe that there is a likely scenario whereby prevailing strength persists beyond Q3, specifically as it relates to a lower probability for negative outcomes in Q4 and Q1, resulting in a 2027 segment EBITDA estimate that increases to $44-million, up from $41-million previously. There are no changes to our 2028+ estimates.”
Mr. MacNeil did caution that “conventional” marketing opportunities will likely “remain muted despite a widening heavy differential.
“The WCS-WTI differential has widened beyond $18 recently, well above 2025 levels,” he said. “While this dislocation has historically presented an opportunity for Gibson’s conventional marketing segment, the continued backwardation of the crude oil futures curve limits the ability to capture time-based arbitrage by storing barrels and selling forward at higher prices. In addition, Alberta inventories remain relatively low, which should help absorb supply disruptions more effectively than in prior periods.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for Gibson shares, Mr. MacNeil increased his target by $1 to $35. The average on the Street is $32.54.
“While this report focuses on the optionality of Gibson’s refining and marketing operations, we continue to believe that the prevailing share price does not fully reflect Gibson’s growth prospects, which are increasingly visible with the constructive backdrop for incremental Canadian crude oil egress opportunities,” he said. “From a valuation perspective, Gibson is currently trading at a 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.1 times vs. the peer average of 11.9 times and features the highest dividend in the peer group at 5.8 per cent. As such, we believe that Gibson has the potential to be a relative outperformer as growth opportunities materialize and reach a positive FID.”
When Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T) releases its second-quarter fiscal 2027 financial report on Sept. 16, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel expects to see “solid” results “underpinned by sustained consumer value-seeking behaviour, with elevated food and shelter costs driving share of wallet toward value-oriented retailers.”
She’s now projecting same-store sales growth in Canada of 4 per cent year-over-year, down from 5.6 per cent in the first quarter but sitting at the high end of the Montreal-based retailer’s guidance of 3-4 per cent. Her earnings per share projection of $1.24 represents a gain of 7.8 per cent but is 2 cents under the consensus estimate on the Street.
“Noting Q2 cadence should normalize from Q1’s elevated 5.6 per cent as pent-up demand/price increase on domestic products tails off,” she added. “[Gross Margins] estimate incorporates moderate headwind from higher fuel/transportation costs.”
In a client note released Tuesday, Ms. Nattel emphasized RBC’s Economics team has pointed to a “a gradual shift in food purchasing toward general merchandise/discount retailers, with the share of food/ beverage sales in the channel rising from 22 per cent to 25 per cent since Q1/23, a trend that aligns with DOL’s rising consumables mix, up 500 basis points.”
“RBC Economics’ Q2 Consumer Spending Tracker shows Canadian cardholder spending accelerating with core retail sales up 2.4 per cent quarter-over-quarter, but consumers allocating more to gas, likely drawing on savings and reinforcing value-seeking posture,” she added.
Ms. Nattel reiterated her “constructive outlook” and “outperform” rating for Dollarama shares along with her $223 target. The average is $218.42.
“DOL a secular winner, as value-seeking behaviour sustains gains in share of wallet, in our view,” she concluded.
National Bank Financial analyst Baltej Sidhu views Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.’s (AQN-N,AQN-T) $126.5-million sale of its 64-per-cent ownership stake in Chilean water utility Suralis S.A to an asset manager in the South American company “positively as it monetizes a geographically non-core asset, simplifies the portfolio and accelerates balance-sheet improvement ahead of AQN’s U.S. redomicile and headquarters move to Chicago.”
“The transaction implies a 100-per-cent equity value of approximately $200-million, and including $215-million of Suralis debt, we estimate transaction metrics reflecting 9.5-10 times EV/EBITDA and more than 2.0 times P/TBV, broadly in line with water-utility transactions,” he added. “Assuming the full $126.5-million of proceeds is applied to debt, consolidated gross debt should decline by $340-million, or 5 per cent, improving credit metrics, funding capacity and in turn, accruing value to shareholders. Importantly, our 2027 estimated adj. EPS remains at $0.42/sh, making the transaction neutral.”
Mr. Sidhu also sees “portfolio optionality ahead” for the Oakville, Ont.-based company as its “credit cushion expands.”
“We see Suralis as the first step in a broader portfolio rationalization as AQN becomes increasingly U.S.-centric,” he said. “Assuming full debt allocation, pro forma we estimate the transaction lifts FFO/debt by approximately 30 basis points and forecast more than 12 per cent, widening the cushion above S&P’s 11-per-cent downgrade threshold to 120 bps. Elsewhere, as AQN redomiciles, we see the 104 MW net Canadian hydro portfolio as a logical next monetization candidate. Further sales at reasonable valuations should simplify the portfolio, fund regulated investment and accelerate deleveraging.”
He maintained an “outperform” rating and US$7 target for Algonquin’s shares. The average is US$6.72.
“On balance, shares should respond favourably,” said Mr. Sidhu. “AQN is reducing complexity via reducing country-risk premium, and strengthening its balance sheet, while further portfolio optionality remains (large-load tariffs). Valuation continues to screen attractively at 13.6 times our 2027 estimated EPS (16.0 times excluding HLBV), vs. peers at 17.1 times. The discrepancy is more pronounced on P/TBV, with AQN at 1.3 times vs. peers at 3.2 times, a 60-per-cent discount.”
TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison thinks “ongoing brand heat, store optimization, pricing power, e-commerce initiatives, operating leverage, and its open-to-buy strategy continue to support attractive top-and-bottom line growth” for Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T) ahead of the release of its second-quarter 2026 results on Sept. 10.
“This is generating strong FCF, currently being allocated toward an active NCIB,” he added. “With an EPS growth outlook of 20 per cent, a premium to its peers, we view its current valuation discount as punitive.”
Mr. Morrison noted the Montreal-based clothing retailer has endured a “material” sell-off following the release of “solid” first-quarter results in mid-June after management highlighted a greater-than-anticipated same-store sales growth deceleration for the second quarter.
“We believe GRGD Q2/F26 is tracking ahead of the expectations at that time, with our forecast for 23-per-cent year-over-yeary revenue growth, a combination of 10.8 per cent SSSG, average net LTM [last 12 month] store adds of 10, and strong year-over-year e-commerce growth (35 per cent year-over-year),” he said. “We take this view based upon favourable ALTD data, North American channel checks, and the USD/CAD rate. Volume increments, favourable mix and the lapping of elevated tariffs in Q2/F25 support our outlook for 390 bps of Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. Our Q2/F26 adjusted EPS forecast of $0.81 (42 per cent year-over-year growth) is nominally ahead of consensus of $0.79.
“SSSG - Decelerating But Still Impressive: Management noted Q2/F26 SSSG was tracking 9 per cent through the first six weeks. This included an FX rate benchmark of 1.34, compared to 1.40 during the quarter. Our forecast is 11 per cent, slightly above consensus at 9 per cent, representing a 2-year stack of 39.5 per cent. Key drivers should include pricing/AUR growth, new stores entering the comp, and an increasing mix of higher-productivity U.S. stores.”
Mr. Morrison reaffirmed his “buy” rating and $85 target for Groupe Dynamite shares. The average on the Street is $89.23.
“GRGD’s underlying growth drivers appear to remain intact and supportive of its F2026 guidance,” he concluded. “Despite lapping increasingly difficult comps, key drivers remain supportive of 20-per-cent year-over-year EPS growth. At 20.0 times/16.9 times our F2026/F2027 EPS forecasts, and effectively 1.0 times turn lower when accounting for our forecast F2027 net cash position, we view this discount to high-growth apparel peers at 31.2 times/27.2 times as excessive given the company’s growth outlook, FCF generation, and expansion potential in U.S./international markets.”
Elsewhere, RBC’s Irene Nattel kept an “outperform” rating and $107 target in a quarterly preview released Tuesday.
“RBC consumer spending data/channel checks point to another quarter of strong GRGD performance, outperforming broader consumer spending trends, with the discretionary goods/apparel backdrop strengthening after a slow start to the year — constructive for GRGD’s price point and positioning, which have proven very sticky with its core constituencies. The company’s low inventory/asset-light/ strong FCF business model moderates enterprise risk and should enable GRGD to rapidly adjust should demand slow unexpectedly. While SSS are normalizing off exceptional prior year comps, underlying brand momentum and the visibility of the earnings growth algorithm remain intact. Reiterating our constructive view,” said Ms. Nattel.
Desjardins Securities analyst Bryce Adams views the $140-million strategic investment in Magna Mining Inc. (NICU-T) by Peru’s Alpayana S.A.C. “positively as it brings in an experienced underground operator as a 19.9-per-cent cornerstone shareholder and fully funds the potential of simultaneously advancing/fast forwarding Levack and Crean Hill.”
“Combined with a record quarter at McCreedy West, we see the company as derisked on both the balance sheet and execution fronts, ahead the upcoming Levack PEA and Crean Hill PFS, both in 3Q26,” added Mr. Adams.
Resuming coverage following the close of the deal, Mr. Adams emphasized the proceeds will help the Sudbury, Ont.-based miner accelerate of its development at its mineral projects.
“Net proceeds will fund development across the Sudbury asset base, primarily accelerating the Levack and Crean Hill projects (we estimate $44-million and $95-million restart capex, respectively), plus general corporate and working capital purposes,” he said. “We now forecast first production and revenue from Levack in 2H27 and from Crean Hill in 1H28. 2Q26 recap.
“Magna delivered a solid 2Q with record McCreedy West throughput of 98.4k tons processed, driving 19-per-cent quarter-over-quarter growth in contained Cueq [copper equivalent] production to 6.58mlbs. 1H payable Cueq produced totalled 51 per cent of the midpoint of reaffirmed guidance. Grades softened in June following a strong April and May (averaging 3.34 per cent in 2Q), and cash costs increased quarter-over-quarter to US$3.76/lb Cueq but remained within guidance (US$3.40–3.80/lb Cueq), while unit production costs declined 7 per cent to $199/ton processed. Of note, Magna generated positive OCF and FCF for the first time, ending 2Q with $40-million in cash.”
Keeping his “buy” rating, Mr. Adams trimmed his target for Magna shares to $4.80 to $5 to reflect the share dilution from the agreement. The average is $4.97.
In other analyst actions:
* Seeing recent share price underperformance as “fundamentally unwarranted” and creating a compelling entry point for investors with predictable growth now “attractively priced,“ Jefferies’ Sam Burwell upgraded TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T) to “buy” from “hold” with a $102 target, up from $100. The average on the Street is $102.77.
* Stifel’s Juan Herrera initiated coverage of Vancouver-based Aztec Minerals Corp. (AZT-X) with a “speculative buy” rating and 61-cent target. The average is 54 cents.
“Aztec trades at an implied US$34/oz on our combined attributable exploration target, roughly half of the US$66/oz peer median, for two North American precious-metals discoveries that we believe are further advanced than valuation implies,” he said. In our view, the discount reflects the absence of a compliant resource rather than the quality of the ground and that gap begins to close in Q4 when APEX Geoscience delivers maiden NI 43-101 resource estimates on both projects. Our illustrative long-term scenario at Tombstone alone implies US$2.32 per share attributable, against which our target applies a substantial risk discount.”
* In a client report titled From Holding Ground to Breaking Ground, Ventum Financial’s Taylor Combaluzier initiated coverage of GoldMining Inc. (GOLD-T) with a “buy” rating and $4.30 target, exceeding the $4.22 average.
“Following three PEAs completed in 2026 across São Jorge, La Mina, and majority-owned US GoldMining’s Whistler project (USGO-NASDAQ, Buy, PT US$35.75), GoldMining is beginning to transition from asset holder to developer. Supported by sizeable liquid holdings, we believe advancing core assets while monetizing the broader portfolio can help narrow the historical HoldCo discount,” he said.
* ATB Cormark’s David McFadgen cut his target for Bragg Gaming Group Inc. (BRAG-T) to $3.70 from $6.80, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $8.64.
“We are revising our estimates to factor in the Q2/26 results. We are now forecasting 2026 revenue of €92.7-million, adj. EBITDA of €13.6-million, and adj. dil. EPS of -€0.16. For 2027, we now forecast revenue of €93.4-million, adj. EBITDA of €15.0-million, and adj. dil. EPS of -€0.07. BRAG reported a soft Q2/26 missing our revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates, revenue declined by 12.2 per cent year over year while adj. EBITDA increased by 1.8 per cent,” said Mr. McFadgen.
* Mr. McFadgen also cut his Pollard Banknote Ltd. (PBL-T) target to $31 from $32, remaining above the $28.75 average, with an “outperform” rating.
“We are revising our estimates to factor in PBL’s Q2/26 results. We are now forecasting 2026 revenue of $631.8-million, Adj. EBITDA of $124.9-million, and Adj. Dil. EPS of $1.69. We are forecasting 2027 revenue of $661.3-million, Adj. EBITDA of $143.5-million, and Adj. Dil. EPS of $2.19. PBL reported a strong Q2/26 beating estimates and reporting high-single-digit growth in revenue and Adj. EBITDA compared to Q2/25, while Adj. Dil. EPS saw a 51.4 per cent increase,” he said.
* ATB Cormark’s Martin Toner reduced his Zoomd Technologies Ltd. (ZOMD-X) target to $1.50 from $2 with a “speculative buy” rating. The average is $2.01.
“Zoomd Technologies reported Q2/26 financial results highlighted by a beat against ATB estimates across profitability metrics and a revenue miss, $7.7-million (vs. ATB’s $7.6-million/consensus $8.4-million). Gross margin reached 42.8 per cent and Adjusted EBITDA printed at $0.7-million, as prior cost realignment measures, including headcount adjustments and internal process automation, helped lower the company’s operating expense baseline. Sequential revenue growth was supported by increased activity from a key client alongside continued customer diversification, while a cash balance of $22.6-million with no bank debt provides financial flexibility and supports ongoing repurchases under the NCIB. After Q2 results we are less confident about the World Cup’s impact on Q3 and the likelihood of ZOMD’s largest customer returning, and we reduce our estimates through 2034,” said Mr. Toner.