Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Following “an era that was “tough to digest” for Canadian food processors, Ventum Financial analyst George Doumet now sees “a more flavourful outlook ahead.”
“Between 2020 and 2025, the group materially underperformed broader indices (26 per cent vs. the TSX at 86 per cent and TSX Staples at 94 per cent), reflecting heavy investment in capacity expansion and network optimization, dislocated commodity cycles, labour and supply chain disruptions, and consumer trade-down dynamics,” he said. “A defining feature of this period was elevated margin volatility, as exposure to commodity spreads, input costs, and tariffs drove earnings variability well above traditional staples norms. For SAP, MFI and PBH in particular, peak investment coincided with peak input cost volatility, expanding balance sheets, and constraining capital returns, with expected earnings acceleration taking longer to materialize.
“We believe the group has entered a more constructive phase. In the case of SAP, MFI and PBH, large-scale investments are complete or nearing completion, setting the stage for lower capital intensity, improving free cash flow, and meaningful deleveraging. Historically, share price outperformance has been driven by stable to improving volumes, leverage trending toward the mid-2-times range, improving return metrics, and capital allocation skewed toward buybacks, conditions we see emerging across much of the group.”
In a client report released before the bell titled The Harvest Ahead, Mr. Doumet initiated coverage of five companies in the consumer staples sector, seeing the presence of low valuations alongside improving market conditions.
“While we expect the group to deliver healthy performance over the next 12–18 months, returns are likely to be uneven across the names,” he said. “SAP appears most advanced in its recovery, MFI is firmly in the midst of it, and PBH is in the earlier innings, experiencing healthy earnings growth and approaching a free cash flow inflection (with valuation stubbornly remaining at historical lows). CPKR is generating strong free cash flow, positioning it as both a capital return and growth story, while HLF offers more back-end loaded upside, with more meaningful share price appreciation likely occurring in 2027.
“The next course? As balance sheets strengthen, the focus is shifting from when free cash flow improves to how it is deployed. SAP, MFI, and CPKR are increasingly becoming capital deployment stories, while PBH and HLF remain in deleveraging mode. M&A is emerging as the next key growth lever, particularly for SAP and MFI, though prior cycles have delivered inconsistent results. Encouragingly, strategies are now more focused on smaller (no elephant hunting), targeted North American branded assets in higher-value categories, with investors likely to scrutinize strategic fit and capital discipline. The first transaction will be critical in setting the tone.”
Mr. Doumet gave “buy” recommendations to four companies. They are:
* Canadian Packers Inc. (CPKR-T) with a $24 target. The average on the Street is $21.88, according to LSEG data.
Analyst: “Shares of CPKR have outperformed since the spin-off, driven by a favourable pork complex backdrop, strong free cash flow, and improved communication (marking a strong ‘Chapter One’). As the Company looks to enter ‘Chapter Two’ with leverage at the low end of its range, the focus shifts to capital deployment, balancing returns with disciplined M&A. We view CPKR as both a growth and an FCF story, with margins in an 8–12-per-cent range, skewed to the upper end. Peak earnings concerns appear overstated, with implied mid-cycle valuation at a healthy discount to peers. We see a longer-term valuation in the mid-$30s, with upside toward $55-plus as the Company executes on its M&A agenda.”
* Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI-T) with a $37 target. Average: $35.
Analyst: “Shares of MFI have lagged over the past several years, as a capital-intensive plant modernization program, pork complex volatility, and consumer trade-down stretched the balance sheet and left EBITDA margins largely flat from 2017 to 2024. With the investment phase now complete, MFI is shifting from fix to growth, with margins expected to improve (from 12 per cent today) with a clear path toward 15 per cent by 2030, supported by mix, efficiency gains, and network optimization. Lower capital intensity is driving a step-change in free cash flow, enabling deleveraging (from 2 times today) and increased capital return flexibility. We view MFI as transitioning into a capital deployment story, with a preference for buybacks and disciplined bolt-on M&A. Based on our framework, we see near-term upside of 30 per cent, with a longer-term valuation range of $45–60 as margins (and returns) continue to improve.”
* Premium Brands Holding Corp. (PBH-T) with a $124 target. Average: $120.27.
Analyst: “Despite delivering strong operating performance (EBITDA growth of 125 per cent plus) over the last five years, shares of PBH have declined 30 per cent, reflecting heavy investment, margin volatility, and elevated leverage. Looking ahead, we believe the Company is now entering a harvest phase, with declining capex driving a step-change in free cash flow (from negative in 2024 and 2025 to $320-million in 2027) and deleveraging toward 3.0 times. Prior investments position PBH for significant revenue growth and margin expansion, yet valuation remains near historical lows. As free cash flow inflects and execution improves in 2026, we see a re-rating opportunity, with upside toward $124 and further optionality toward $150 on a potential divestiture of PBH’s distribution platform.”
* Saputo Inc. (SAP-T) with a $47 target. Average: $48.25.
Analyst: “Following a difficult 2021–2024 marked by commodity volatility and operational headwinds, SAP saw its earnings trajectory reset, highlighted by the withdrawal of its $2.125-billion EBITDA target. Since then, operating momentum has improved, with margins expanding on network optimization, cost control, and a return to volume growth, particularly in the U.S., where further margin expansion (into the 11–12-per-cent range) represents a meaningful source of upside ($8/share beyond our target). SAP has also shifted toward a more shareholder-focused capital allocation strategy, supported by an under-levered balance sheet (1.4 times). While near-term results may be noisy, we see a path to 6-per-cent EBITDA CAGR [compound annual growth rate] through F2028, with additional upside from volume growth, improving commodity conditions, and M&A.”
Mr. Doumet gave a “neutral” rating to High Liner Foods Inc. (HLF-T) with a target of $15.50, which sits below the $17 average.
“Shares of HLF have strengthened over the past several years, as management improved mix and maintained disciplined cost control, driving EBITDA margin expansion (from approximately 6 per cent in 2018 to 9 per cent in 2025) and deleveraging (from 5.7 times to 2.5 times by Q2/25),” he said. “This stronger balance sheet supported M&A, including Mrs. Paul’s and Van de Kamp’s. More recently, H2/25 introduced headwinds, as tariff-driven input cost spikes and volume softness weighed on results. While largely transitory, these pressures are likely to extend into H1/26, creating near-term earnings risk. Investor focus remains on leverage and volume recovery, neither of which we expect to inflect meaningfully before 2027, keeping us on the sidelines.”
TD Cowen analyst Tim James does not expect any “material surprises” when CAE Inc. (CAE-T) reports its fourth-quarter 2026 financial results on May 12, instead viewing its “highly anticipated long-term margin, FCF and ROCE targets as key to short-medium term share price.”
“We believe consensus has appropriately discounted F2027/F2028 earnings pressure from recently announced transformation plan, and leaves upside potential,” he added. “Financial target disclosure with Q4 will have heightened importance for 12-month view.”
In a client report, Mr. James updated his forecast for the Montreal-based aviation and defence training company to reflect its transformation plan, which includes laying off approximately 2 per cent of its employees, including engineers and software programmers, to fit a strategy to align its work force with falling demand for simulators and aircrew training from civilian airlines. That led to a 5-per-cent decline in his earnings expectations through his current valuation period.
“We forecast Q4/F26 commercial training will reflect temporary pressures from war/jet fuel/air fare driven demand and therefore pilot training weakness,” the analyst explained. “We anticipate these pressures continue in Q1/F27 before conditions gradually improve in H2/F27. We forecast a decline of 5 per cent year-over-year in Q4/F26 adj. EBITDA to $349-million (consensus: $341-million) due to Civil (down 210 basis points) & Defense (down 120 basis points) margin compression. Our F2026 forecast is in-line with guide.
“For F2026-F2029, we forecast Defense and Security segment revenue growth (6-per-cent compound annual growth rate) and EBIT (16-per-cent CAGR) combined with Civil segment Products revenue growth (10-per-cent CAGR) will be partially offset by the sale of non-core assets (F27-F28) and wind down of revenue related to FFSs [full-flight simulators] that have been targeted for removal from service or relocated. We forecast the net impact will drive 10-per-cent CAGR (F2026-F2029) in consolidated EBIT. With Q4, we believe the company could release guidance for F2027 that is at least in-line with current consensus forecasts, and long-term targets that align with market expectations.”
Mr. James now expects 25 per cent of CAE’s commercial FFSs to be removed from service or relocated with these lower yielding/lower margin assets weighing on margin and revenue through fiscal 2028 before leading to stronger returns by 2029. He also assumes asset sales representing 8 per cent of revenue beginning in the second half of fiscal 2027 and completed by the same period a year later.
“Despite the short-medium term negative impact of transformation plan, we forecast unaffected commercial FFS related services and business aviation training services will limit downside to a negative 3.1-per-cent CAGR in Civil training, services and software revenue from F2026-F2029,” he added. “A 12-per-cent CAGR in Boeing and Airbus deliveries is expected to drive 10-per-cent CAGR in Civil products revenue (F2026-F2029). Combining these two business line forecasts supports Civil segment revenue that rebounds to F2026 levels in F2028 and higher by F2029.”
With his new forecast, Mr. James dropped his target for CAE shares to $49 from $53, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is $48.48.
In a separate report, after minor forecast adjustments to reflect updated economic, currency, industry, and other modeling assumptions, Mr. James cut his Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T) target by $1 to $79, keeping a “buy” rating while emphasizing the net impact of the changes were “immaterial” to his view of the company. The average is $79.38.
“We believe continued strong revenue growth (up 9 per cent), modest adj. EBITDA margin compression (20 basis points), and commentary supporting our forecast for accelerating adjusted EBITDA growth & margin expansion beyond Q2/26 should drive share price towards our target,” he said. “Valuation multiple potential upside is significant. Our Q1/26 adj. EBITDA forecast is in line w/ consensus. BDGI reports April 30 after market close.”
Desjardins Securities analyst Lorne Kalmar thinks Extendicare Inc. (EXE-T) has “created a unique offering in Canada’s public market” with its shift toward seniors care services, combined with an aging Canadian population, leading to “significantly enhanced” growth profile.
Forecasting double-digit compound annual growth rate for earnings and funds from operations through 2027 and seeing further upside in its shares despite “significant” appreciation over the past two years, he initiated coverage of the Markham, Ont.-based company with a “buy” recommendation.
“EXE has transformed its business over the past several years and is now positioned as Canada’s lone publicly traded vehicle that provides investors with exposure to the health services component of the aging Canadian demographic theme,” he said. The shift toward senior care services, which represents 70 per cent of NOI on a pro forma basis, has resulted in a less capital-intensive business model, a more conservative balance sheet and a significantly improved earnings growth outlook. While recent organic growth in the home care vertical has been aided by government funding enhancements, we continue to see a long runway of growth in this business owing to the aging baby boomer population, as well as overstretched LTC and hospital systems. Its managed services business lines (Extendicare Assist and SGP Purchasing Network) provide high-margin income streams with minimal capital intensity that nicely complement its home care business. Finally, its wholly owned LTC portfolio provides a stable income stream with future optionality, while its LTC redevelopment JVs offer a capital-light avenue to high-grade its Class C beds and grow its managed services business.
“In light of the home care business’ higher levels of organic growth and the resumption of its acquisition program, combined with its LTC redevelopment pipeline, we expect the portion of NOI attributable to its two services businesses to continue to grow in the coming years. While EXE has been a top performer since January 2024, we still see meaningful upside in the stock in light of its improved growth profile. With forecast adjusted EBITDA and EPS CAGRs of 23 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively, we expect EXE to continue to rerate higher.”
Mr. Kalmar set a target of $34.50, exceeding the average on the Street of $31.75.
While emphasizing domestic air cargo demand has remained “healthy” for Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T) through the first quarter of the year, National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen expects to see headwinds to revenue growth when it reports results after the bell on May 4.
“Cargojet has enjoyed strong growth in its Domestic network with revenue up 13.6 per cent year-over-year in 2025,” he explained. “We forecast more tempered growth in 2026 with an estimate for 3.0-per-cent revenue growth in Q1/26. The company’s ACMI [Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance] revenue has shown year-over-year declines for the last four quarters due to lower block hours with DHL coming from a shift to shorter-haul routes Cargojet operates on their behalf. We still forecast a modest 5-per-cent drop in ACMI revenue in Q1/26. Finally, for All-in Charter, year-over-year revenue growth faces a headwind from the cessation of flights to China as the contract with the e-commerce customer has ended. This should be partially offset by new LATAM charter routes and some incremental flying for UPS. We forecast All-in Charter revenue to decline 15 per cent year-over-year in Q1/26.”
Mr. Doerksen did raise his revenue forecast “largely to reflect higher fuel surcharge revenue” as Cargojet passes through escalation in costs through surcharges or contractually within its ACMI and charter operations, but he noted “a lag in surcharge collections can impact short-term profitability.”
“We have therefore trimmed our Q1/26 profitability forecast with only a minor impact on our full-year 2026 estimates,” he added. “We have made some other minor forecast adjustments for 2027, which results in a slight reduction in our profit estimates.”
While calling its valuation “interesting,” Mr. Doerksen trimmed his target for its shares to $104 from $108, maintaining an “outperform” rating. The average is $117.23.
“While its more internationally-focused ACMI and charter operations will continue to face end market-driven headwinds in the coming quarters, the company has successfully won new business as a partial offset (new scheduled charter to LATAM countries for an unnamed customer plus some work for UPS back filling some of its capacity lost due to the grounding of its MD-11 fleet),” he added.
“Although near-term catalysts are limited, valuation remains reasonable within our transportation coverage universe, with the stock currently trading at 7.1 times EV/EBITDA based on our 2026 forecast, which is well below the long-term historical average for the stock at 10.5 times and also slightly below the post-COVID (last three years) average of 7.6 times. CJT shares are also trading at a discount to the P&C peer group (8.7 times 2026 EV/EBITDA).”
National Bank analyst Zachary Evershed reaffirmed Savaria Corp. (SIS-T) as his “top pick” for 2026 following its Investor Day event on April 14 at which it revealed “ambitious” financial targets.
“Savaria is targeting 12-per-cenmt annual revenue growth through 2030, reaching $1.6-billion in sales while maintaining a 20-per-cent-plus adjusted EBITDA margin,” said Mr. Evershed. “Of the 12-per-cent annual revenue growth, 4 per cent is expected to be driven by M&A and 8-per-cent organic, driven by 3-5-per-cent market growth, 2-per-cent pricing, and incremental share gains. Management highlighted that current capacity is more than sufficient to support this pace of volume growth, with additional support from the Greenville expansion.
The 20-per-cent-plus margin target implies $320-million-plus Adj. EBITDA in 2030. The legacy business continues to benefit from operating leverage and could hit 21-22 per cent, while the more conservative margin target reflects the potential mix impact from lower-margin acquisitions."
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for shares of Brampton, Ont.-based personal mobility equipment manufacturer, he hiked his target to $37 from $30.50. The average is $34.20.
“We reiterate our OP rating given Savaria’s strong high-single digit organic growth profile and balance sheet optionality, in combination with its defensive attributes,” he said. “Given this package, we view a more compressed FCF yield as warranted, and therefore raise our base multiple to 11.5 times (was 10 times), which, all else equal, would see our target rise to $35, equivalent to a 4.6-per-cent FCF yield (was 5.3 per cent at $30.50). Additionally, as SIS now explicitly targets 4-per-cent growth through acquisitions, we elect to also include a premium in our multiple to reflect the incremental growth not baked into our model, seeing us raise our combined multiple to 12 times, made up of an 11.5-times base multiple and a 0.5 times M&A premium which is equivalent to 4-per-cent revenue growth annually through transactions at an average 6 times EBITDA multiple. In our base model (no M&A baked in), the resultant $37 target is equivalent to a 4.4-per-cent FCF yield and can be recreated in our long-term DCF using a 9.1-per-cent discount rate, or a 9.9-per-cent discount rate when including the 4-per-cent annual revenue growth from acquisitions.”
In other analyst actions:
* Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur raised his target for Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T) to $52 from $48 with an “outperform” rating on stronger-than-anticipated first-quarter attributable royalty revenue. The average on the Street is $51.13.
“Altius has a high-margin, scalable business model with a quality, diversified asset base that gives investors exposure to potash, base metals, renewables, and premium iron ore,” he said.
* Seeing Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) “built to withstand turbulence,” Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho raised his target for its shares to $116 from $114 with a “buy” rating. The average is $122.36.
“Our 2026E EBITDA of $873-million remains near the top end of EIC’s $825–875-million guidance as rising fuel costs and macro uncertainty have not altered our view on EIC’s ability to execute,” said Mr. Ho. “We also expect no material impact from Section 232 tariffs. We remain optimistic on EIC being awarded at least one of the several ongoing ISR RFPs.”
* Following the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 results as well as the announcement of the departure of President and Chief Executive Officer Audrey Mascarenhas, ATB Cormark’s Tim Monachello downgraded Calgary-based Questor Technology Inc. (QST-X) to “sector perform” from “speculative buy” with a 45-cent target, down from 60 cents previously, while Acumen Capital’s Trevor Reynolds lowered his target to 55 cents from 75 cents with a “hold” rating (unchanged). The average is 68 cents.
“While results were in-line, its 2026 outlook has degraded due to commissioning delays in Iraq caused by Middle East conflict and slow rental uptake in Mexico. While we remain encouraged by QST’s longer-term opportunity set, given a reduced 2026 outlook, a healthy degree of speculation in our 2027/2028 growth estimates, and added uncertainty related to QST’s ongoing CEO transition,” said Mr. Monachello.