Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
TD Cowen analyst Menno Hulshof thinks a “compelling” valuation has emerged for Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET-T) following a recent period of share price underperformance, leading him to upgrade his rating to “buy” from “hold” previously.
“We downgraded to HOLD back in March given year-to-date share outperformance, offset by near-term operational volatility and an FCF inflection that felt too far out for most investors,” he said. “Risk/reward has improved and we now consider near-term operational headwinds (2Q hedge losses, 2Q Wandoo cyclone impacts, 3Q 32-day Corrib TA) fairly well understood by investors. We also see VET tracking toward the high end of 2026 guidance (we est. 122mboe/d vs 118-122 mboe/ d guide) and think the market could start to focus more on 2028+ FCF inflection as the Street begins introducing 2028 estimates this fall.”
In a client note, Mr. Hulshof said the Calgary-based company’s portfolio repositioning has “improved asset quality, unit costs, and financial flexibility,” leading to the potential for a free cash flow inflection" while also pointing to “momentum in Germany, and a valuation that offers reasonable compensation for the remaining execution and timing risks.”
“At strip 2027 estimated metrics of 12.6-per-cent FCF yield and 3.0 times EV/DACF, we consider the entry point attractive,” he noted. “We do see risk in the timing of value recognition, but reiterate the benefits of a less complex portfolio, potential for EFCF inflection in 2028+, Germany resource upside and value creation through acquisitions given its successful Euro M&A track record (Corrib, etc.).”
Mr. Hulshof maintained his $18 target for Vermilion shares. The average on the Street is $21.70.
“Its key assets continue to perform well and remain supportive of 2028+ EFCF inflection,” he concluded. “1Q26 production of 125.6 mboe/d exceeded expectations, 2026 vols are tracking toward the high end of VET’s 118-122 mboe/d guide, and ND declined by $50-million quarter-over-quarter to $1.29bn. Operational execution generally remains solid. Deep Basin results have been strong, Montney DCET costs have declined to $8.2-million/well from $8.5-million/well, and key Euro gas milestones remain on track, including Wisselshorst first gas expected in mid-2026. That said, some execution and timing risks remain. VET must still successfully complete the 3Q26 Corrib turnaround, its EFCF payout profile is a more modest 40-per-cent, RoC upside is less defined than some peers, and Euro gas volatility—combined with curve backwardation—adds uncertainty. Even so, following the share pullback, we believe the risk/reward has improved sufficiently to support a BUY rating."
Heading into earnings season for Canadian energy producers, TD Cowen analysts Menno Hulshof and Aaron Bilkoski warn “volatility is showing no signs of abating given renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and risks to Strait of Hormuz flows, set against a growing global oversupply narrative.”
“While oil prices could weaken if SoH flows normalize and the expected surplus emerges, we believe the balance of risks remains modestly favourable,” they added.
“Downside to 2027 oil prices could be relatively limited absent a major demand shock, while prices could move higher if the conflict persists or disruptions worsen. In our view, the strip may assume a smoother normalization than recent developments justify.”
Updating their commodity price deck, the analysts emphasized oil-weighted free cash flow estimates remain higher since late February, “despite oil prices pulling back sharply from their recent peaks.”
“Several coverage names trade at high single-digit to low double-digit 2027 estimated strip FCF yields,” they explained. “These yields are underpinned by US$72/bbl 2027 strip WTI, which does not appear unreasonable given renewed Middle East tensions and ongoing risks to SoH flows.
“The ever-improving WCSB pipeline outlook provides another important tailwind, in our view. A growing list of egress proposals—including the proposed 1 mmbbl/d West Coast Oil Pipeline—is improving investor confidence in long-term production growth. The recently signed trilateral MOU also contemplates regulatory reform, fiscal support, and Pathways CCS incentives, with binding agreements targeted by November 15. While key details remain outstanding, we believe the framework could shorten approval timelines, improve project economics, and help unlock additional oil sands investment. Combined with strong balance sheets, robust shareholder returns, disciplined capital allocation, and material leverage to oil prices and production growth, we believe sector risk/reward remains attractive."
For investors, the analysts think “improving WCSB oil egress visibility, favourable policy and renewed confidence in long-term oil production growth should backstop the equities.”
“We continue to see pockets of value on FCF yield, combined with strong balance sheets, disciplined capital returns and numerous long-duration growth catalysts,” they added.
After adjustments to their forecast with “the most meaningful revisions” coming to their crack-spread assumptions, the analysts made these target adjustments to stocks in their coverage universe:
- Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T, “buy”) to $46 from $45. The average is $45.91.
- Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR-T, “buy”) to $11 from $10. Average: $9.83.
- Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T, “buy”) to $150 from $156. Average: $143.
- Prairiesky Royalty Ltd. (PSK-T, “buy”) to $38 from $36. Average: $35.73.
- Strathcona Resources Ltd. (SCR-T, “buy”) to $47 from $49. Average: $50.40.
- Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T,, “buy” ) to $116 from $113. Average: $95.63.
- Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU-T, “hold”) to $66 from $65. Average: $71.45.
- Viper Energy Inc. (VNOM-Q, “buy”) to US$58 from US$59. Average: US$57.54.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Nelson Ng believes the recent pullback in the share price for 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T) “provides an attractive entry point into a company that is seeing strong demand for its space solar cells and semiconductor compounds for thinfilm solar panels.”
Forecasting EBITDA growth over the next three years to be 18-per-cent annually and touting the presence of a “strong competitive position in producing niche and high purity materials,” he initiated coverage of the Montreal-based company with an “outperform” rating on Wednesday.
“The company primarily takes very low-grade metal concentrates (e.g., copper and zinc refining byproduct), and extracts and refines the metals of interest (e.g., tellurium, germanium, and bismuth) to a very high level of purity. 5N Plus, or five nines (99.999 per cent-plus) represents the purity level,” he said. “The purified metals are sold in the form of pure metals, compounds, wafers, substrates, alloys or chemicals. Some products include germanium-based space solar cells, cadmium telluride (CdTe) for First Solar’s U.S. operations, and pharmaceutical grade bismuth.”
“Strong tailwinds. 5N Plus operates two business divisions i) Specialty Semiconductors (73 per cent of 2025 revenues) and ii) Performance Materials (27 per cent of 2025 revenues). We forecast revenue growth over the 2025-28 period to be 20-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] for Specialty Semiconductors and growth normalizing at 4-per-cent CAGR for Performance Materials after achieving 22-per-cent revenue growth in 2025 (accelerated pharmaceutical demand for bismuth).”
Mr. Ng thinks 5N Plus is “well-positioned to benefit from the expansion of the space economy and increase in U.S. thin film solar manufacturing through 2028, supported by strong competitive moats in ultra-high-purity specialty materials and Western supply chain advantages.”
“Shares have declined 30 per cent from recent highs in May 2026 amid broader space sector rotation following the SpaceX IPO, despite intact fundamentals and strong secular tailwinds,” he added.
“Strong financial position supports growth and M&A optionality. With 2026E net debt/ NTM EBITDA of just 0.5 times and trending toward a net cash position in 2027, the company maintains substantial financial flexibility to fund organic growth and pursue strategic acquisitions. Management has indicated that they continue to evaluate strategic M&A opportunities, and are highly motivated to complete a transaction.”
He set a target of $41 per share. The current average is $46.69.
“Our $41 price target is based on a blended 17.5-times multiple applied to our 2028 EBITDA estimate, reflecting near-term contracted growth through 2028 while conservatively discounting post-2028 uncertainty (First Solar contract renewal, ITC expiration) and customer concentration risk. The implied 24-per-cent return supports our Outperform rating” said Mr. Ng.
National Bank Financial analyst Zachary Evershed sees U.S. President Donald Trump‘s latest tariff threat as “a potential positive” for Doman Building Materials Group Ltd. (DBM-T).
“Section 338 tariffs include a proposed 50-per-cent tariff on wooden pickets, palings, posts, rails and fence sections, among other Canadian products,” he explained. “As DBM recently invested in its domestic U.S. fencing capacity, with contributions expected in H2/26, any incremental friction on imported competition is likely a positive, though we do not foresee a material impact on DBM’s operations.”
In a client note previewing the Vancouver-based company’s second-quarter financial report, which is scheduled to be released on Aug. 5, Mr. Evershed also emphasized the potential gains brought by a recent turnround in lumber pricing.
He is currently projecting quarterly revenue of $901.5-million, a gain of 1.7 per cent year-over-year and narrow lower than the Street’s expectation of $903.7-million. He sees fully diluted earnings per share jumping 5.6 per cent to 33 cents, topping the consensus by 3 cents.
“Q2 average lumber pricing improved, led by East SYP [Southern Yellow Pine], which averaged US$520/mbf [thousand board feet], up 5.1 per cent quarter-over-quarter and recovering from its May low as inventories tightened and buyers looked for alternatives to constrained spruce supply,” he said. “Western SPF [Spruce-Pine-Fir] averaged US$488/mbf, up 5.4 per cent year-over-year, with the improvement seemingly driven more by tighter supply and restocking than stronger underlying demand. July points to a better starting point for Q3, but not another move higher. East SYP has averaged US$551/mbf through mid-July, above June’s US$512/mbf, though momentum has turned, pulling back from the peak in the latest week. Western SPF has remained flat at US$500,above its Q2 average of US$488.”
After raising his organic growth and gross margin forecasts slightly to reflect stronger commodity pricing in the second and third quarters, Mr. Evershed increased his target for Doman shares to $14 from $13.50, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $12.57.
“We rate DBM Outperform as firmer lumber pricing and resilient margins support modestly higher near-term estimates despite a still-soft housing backdrop,” he said. “Longer term, Doman remains well positioned to benefit from an eventual housing recovery following years of underbuilding, and in the interim, the highly attractive 12.9-per-cent FCF yield will allow the company to reduce leverage by 0.5 times Net Debt/EBITDA annually, all while funding the 4.9-per-cent dividend yield.”
Desjardins Securities analyst Gary Ho sees “tailwinds building beyond guidance” for Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) ahead of the release of its financial report on Aug. 11 after the bell.
“Our 2026 estimated EBITDA of $882-million sits slightly above EIC’s $825–875-million guidance,“ he said. ”We see limited risk from fuel price fluctuations (surcharge pass-through) or wildfires, and see upside from wins outside current guidance, tuck-in M&A and mats/ datacentre demand."
Mr. Ho is now projecting revenue for the quarter of $922-million, a 28.1-per-cent gain year-over-year and above the Street’s forecast of $913-million. His adjusted EBITDA estimate of $216-million is a jump of 21.6 per cent and matches the consensus.
He said.“ 1. Aerospace & Aviation. Volumes have been stable, the fuel impact has been muted via surcharges and there has been minimal disruption from wildfires. The Government of Nunavut did not exercise its Canadian North option (refer to our note) and the relationship is intact. Our 2026E EBITDA of $882-million is above EIC’s $825–875-million. We raised our 2027 forecasts to reflect the $750-million PAL-SkyAlyne FAcT contract (working capital light, front-end loaded; more details to surface on 2Q call) and Air Greenland mods (mainly 2027 into early 2028). The expanded Air Canada ramp-up in 2H, progress on the MACH 2 integration and ongoing northern surveillance discussions remain tailwinds for the A&A segment.
“2. Manufacturing. Composite mats are sold out on U.S. T&D demand. A second Spartan Mississippi facility remains on time and budget for completion in late 2027. On the Canadian front, pipeline expansion announcements signal positive momentum for Northern Mat (though growth capex is required to unlock the opportunity). Precision demand accelerated—the steel tank backlog is at a record on surging datacentre capex plus favourable pricing. The Windows segment remains profitable despite ongoing headwinds in the condo market, with limited near-term tailwinds."
After introducing his forecast for fiscal 2028 alongside his near-term estimate changes, Mr. Ho increased his target for the Winnipeg-based company’s shares to $135 from $120. The average is $134.91.
In other analyst actions:
* Gerdes Energy Research’s John Gerdes downgraded Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T) to “neutral” from “buy” previously, seeing limited potential upside after recent share price appreciation. His target rose by $1 to $97, exceeding the $95.63 average, after adjustments to his second-half 2026 commodity price forecast.
* In a note titled Solid Q2 Expected but Q3 Guidance the Main Event, Stifel’s Daryl Young hiked his target for shares of Air Canada (AC-T) to $30 from $25.50, above the $25.36 average, with a “buy” rating in advance of its Aug. 11 earnings release.
“We think it is widely expected that Q2 will be solid, with EBITDA potentially toward the higher-end of guidance for $575-$725-million, reflecting resilient demand, rapid price pass-through and the more than 30-per-cent pull-back in fuel prices after peaking mid-May,” he said. “We expect constructive Q3/26 guidance, but with some noise/softness around Atlantic leisure bookings/yields (price push-back and uncertainty around potential fuel shortages). Also, domestic Canada remains highly competitive amid continued capacity growth. Big picture, we think demand remains very strong and expect to see robust bookings carry through year-end 2026, with premium, corporate, 6th freedom, and cargo all firing. Moreover, AC appears to be through the majority of its union negotiations, clearing the way for four years of labor stability (IAMAW still to be ratified). However, we acknowledge that fuel/fare dynamics remain highly volatile, making Q3 guidance the key share price driver.”
* Ahead of its quarterly financial release on Aug.6, Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho bumped his target for Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (AD.UN-T) to $27 from $26.50, maintaining a “buy” rating, while ATB’s Jeff Fenwick increased his target to $32 from $29 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $27.41.
“We do not anticipate major surprises, with FX benefiting BVPU, partially offset by higher rates,” said Mr. Ho. “Monetizations remain a near-term catalyst underpinning the investment thesis, with several full exits targeted by year-end (common equity upside). The deployment pipeline remains robust. After updating our model and introducing our 2028 estimates (5-per-cent BV growth), we raised our target price.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee hiked his Black Diamond Group Ltd. (BDGI-T) target to $23 from $18.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $20.75.
“Black Diamond Group reports Q2/26 results after market close on July 30. Ahead of the quarter, we are lowering our Q2 expectations to account for lower near-term MSS sales and non-rental revenue. Importantly, our model changes reflect timing more than any deterioration in the underlying demand, with activity weighted towards H2/26 backed by the Royal Camp integration. We are constructive on the medium-term outlook for BDI, with F27 and F28 expected to benefit from improving fleet deployment and expanding Canadian infrastructure spending. We maintain our BUY rating and raise our target price to $23.00 (from $18.50) on the back of a steeper F27 ramp, the shift of our valuation to F28, and an increased WFS multiple that reflects our constructive view on long-term utilization and continued expansion of the order book,” said Mr. Lee.
* BMO’s Ben Pham raised his Emera Inc. (EMA-T) target to $80 from $76 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $75.
“We recently marketed with EMA’s CFO Jared Green, the net of which reaffirmed our thesis that EPS visibility is improving through end of decade (and likely beyond), the balance sheet and payout ratio are still on track for further de-risking, and strategic focus remains on organic growth in regulated utility infrastructure, esp. in its high-growth, high-ROE Florida franchise,” said Mr. Pham.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Neville increased his target for NFI Group Inc. (NFI-T) to $35 from $29, above the $25.38 average, with a “buy” rating.
“While NFI Group shares are up 66 per cent year-to-date, we see further potential near- to medium-term catalysts on the horizon: (1) our Q2/26 adj. EBITDA estimate is 5 per cent above consensus, (2) we believe the company is likely to (at least) raise the lower end of its 2026 adj. EBITDA guidance with Q2 results, (3) the improved pricing on the recent notes offering could see the company refinancing its existing second-lien notes in 2027, which could drive a meaningful improvement in FCF, and (4) as leverage ratios return to the company’s targeted range (expected in 2027), we believe the narrative will transition to potential dividends, share repurchases, and/or M&A rather than liquidity constraints and B/S issues that characterized more recent years,” said Mr. Neville.
* Expecting a “tough” quarter, Desjardins’ Brent Stadler trimmed his Northland Power Inc. (NPI-T) target to $22 from $23, keeping a “hold” rating. The average is $26.
“We expect offshore wind speeds were weak in 2Q26 (more than 20 per cent below long-term averages) and have decreased our EBITDA estimate to $263-million (from $274-million); our estimate is now 6 per cent below consensus of $280-million. With the quarterly results, we will be looking for construction updates on Hai Long and Baltic Power, colour on the potential refinancing and funding delayed pre-completion revenues at Hai Long, and projects that can drive the next phase of growth,” said Mr. Stadler.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan moved his Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T) target to $23 from $22 with a “hold” rating. The average is $27.20.
“Ahead of the next round of Section 301 tariff uncertainty and rising freight rates linked to the Iran war, we think retailers have again moved to build inventory earlier than the year-ago period, including earlier back-to-school sales and a planogram reset schedule returning to normal, as indicated during Hasbro’s Q2/26 call. We believe this behaviour has likely benefitted Spin Master’s Q2/26 toy shipments. As a result, we pull some growth forward from H2/26 into Q2/26 and now forecast roughly 8-per-cent year-over-year growth in Toy GPS in the second quarter, above management’s initial flat-to-LSD outlook. On the back of higher volume and operating leverage, we also model 90 bps of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion versus Q2/25,” said Mr. Hannan.
* BMO’s Étienne Ricard cut his Sprott Inc. (SII-T) target to $195 from $210, below the $211.80 average, with an “outperform” rating.
“Sprott’s net flows took a breather in Q2/26. Continued inflows in critical materials strategies were more than offset by outflows in precious metals. Through the cycle, SII’s track record provides for 8-per-cent net flows, a powerful organic growth driver supporting mid-teens EPS growth once layering in market appreciation and operating leverage. We continue to recommend SII as a top idea for investors seeking diversification in volatile markets,” said Mr. Ricard.
* TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding reduced his target for TMX Group Ltd. (X-T) to $61 from $64 with a “buy” rating. The average is $65.50.
“Q2/26 trading and financing activity was broadly in line with expectations. TMX has been putting its capital to work, including 2 acquisitions announced in Q2/26 and healthy share buybacks. Our constructive view remains intact. However, we are reducing our multiple to reflect valuation compression for peers around the potential for more competition from DeFi platforms,” said Mr. Ryding.