Markets update
- Wall Street ended lower, as worries about inflation stemming from soaring oil prices left investors pessimistic about the potential for future interest rate cuts at the world’s major central banks. The S&P 500 declined 0.27% to end the session at 6,606.49 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.28% to 22,090.69 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.44% to 46,021.43 points. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow were below their 200-day moving averages, underscoring a loss of momentum in the market.
- Trading was volatile in oil markets as Iran attacked energy targets overnight in the Middle East. Brent futures settled at $108.65 a barrel, up $1.27, or 1.18%. Earlier in the session, Brent had climbed to a high of $119.13, close to the 3-1/2-year peak touched on March 9. U.S. crude settled at $96.14 and then fell toward $94, which helped equity markets come off their lows.
- The S&P/TSX composite index ended down 1.42% at 31,854.98, its lowest level since February, bringing the index’s total decline to over 7% since the start of the Iran war. The materials sector fell by more than 5% to its lowest level this year. Energy stocks rose 3.3%.
- Spot gold prices fell 3.2% to US$4,657 per ounce.
- U.S. and Canadian Treasury yields jumped at the front end of the curve, as investors were pricing out future Federal Reserve rate cuts. U.S. and Canada 2-year yields were up 4 to 8 basis points.
03/19/26 17:27
Premium Brands shares fall; analyst suggests it was due to investor confusion over earnings
- Brenda Bouw
Premium Brands Holdings Corp. (PBH-T) shares fell 6.5 per cent in regular trading on Thursday after the company reported fourth-quarter results and an outlook for 2026.
One analyst suggested the price drop was due to “confusion around guidance and erroneous media reporting.”
Before markets opened on Thursday, the Vancouver-based producer, marketer and distributor of branded specialty food products reported record fourth-quarter revenue of $1.897-billion, up about 16 per cent from $1.639-billion a year earlier. The result was below expectations of $1.911-billion, according to S&P Capital IQ.
It said adjusted EBITDA was also a record $179.5-million, slightly below expectations of $179.7-million and up 20.7 per cent from $148.7-million a year earlier.
Adjusted earnings of $57.6-million or $1.29 per share compared to $46.3-million or $1.05 per share a year earlier. The expectation was for adjusted EPS of $1.28.
It also provided 2026 sales guidance, after adjusting for the recent sale of Shaw Bakers, of $9.25-billion to $9.55-billion. The estimate was for $9.49-billion, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Adjusted EBITDA guidance was set at $870-million to $910-million, versus estimates of $904.9-million.
In a note, TD analyst Derek Lassard wrote that the share drop on Thursday could be tied to some “confusion around guidance and erroneous media reporting.”
“Overall, we believe that management struck a relatively positive tone,” he added, noting that 2026 guidance “is in line with consensus, not below.”
He also said beef inflation is a headwind, but ”manageable,” and that beef prices are elevated, “but the situation isn’t as dire as one of today’s news reports suggested.”
Added Mr. Lessard: “Management said that it is comfortable with its pricing strategy assuming no “black swan events” such as the 2025 US-Brazil tariff situation.Mr. Lessard also said there is a sale of other non-core assets coming, adding that in a conference call on Thursday, management said it’s in “advanced discussions to exit non-core investments/businesses, and expects to close on some of these in 2026.”
03/19/26 17:09
TD upgrades Power Corp. to a ‘buy’
- Darcy Keith
TD Cowen analyst Graham Ryding upgraded Power Corp. (POW-T) to “buy” from “hold”, believing that the recent selloff makes for an attractive entry point.
“Despite the Q4/25 earnings miss, we view Power Corp.’s fundamentals as solid,” Mr. Ryding said in a note issued late Thursday. “The core operating companies (GWO and IGM) are performing well (solid earnings growth and capital returns), and Power Corp. intends to lean in on buybacks. With the sell-off (13% ytd), more attractive valuation, and Power Corp. being a large cap defensive name, we are moving to a buy rating.”
While maintaining a C$74 price target, he says valuations are attractive.
I’ll have more on this in Friday’s Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades report.
03/19/26 17:01
Calfrac Well Services jumps nearly 10% on earnings beat
- Brenda Bouw
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW-T) stock surged nearly 10 per cent in regular trading Thursday after the company reported stronger fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA that beat expectations and a strong outlook.
Before markets opened on Thursday, the oilfield services company operating in Canada, the United States and Argentina reported revenue of $292.2-million, down 23 per cent from the same quarter in 2024. It said the drop was primarily due to lower activity in Argentina, offset partially by higher activity in North America.
The result was below expectations of $304.1-million, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Adjusted EBITDA of $43.9-million compared to $34.5-million a year earlier, “primarily due to improved operating results in North America,” it stated. The result was ahead of expectations of $34.3-million.
Net income of $14.5-million or 16 cents per share compared to a net loss of $6.4-million or 7 cents a year earlier.
“The company’s outlook in North America remains constructive over the next few years despite the near-term macroeconomic headwinds as longer-term demand for energy continues to strengthen and structural improvement in the Canadian LNG market is anticipated to take hold,” it stated in a release.
03/19/26 16:44
Cheniere, Venture Global shares surge amid Iran attacks on Qatar LNG infrastructure
Shares of U.S. liquefied natural gas producer Cheniere Energy (LNG-N) jumped to an all-time high while Venture Global (VG-N) initially spiked as much as 13% on Thursday after QatarEnergy said attacks by Iran may shut nearly a fifth of its LNG output for up to five years.
Cheniere hit a record high in intraday trade and its shares were up about 7% to $285 in afternoon trading, while Venture Global reversed most of the gains earlier in the day. Venture Global shares are up about 50% over the past month.
The Thursday rally followed comments from QatarEnergy CEO Saad al‑Kaabi, who told Reuters that Iranian strikes had knocked out 17% of the Gulf nation’s LNG export capacity.
Cheniere can export more than 51 million metric tons of LNG per year, while Venture Global can ship out more than 37 million tons, according to the companies’ recent earnings calls.
- Reuters
03/19/26 16:29
U.S. may remove sanctions on Iranian oil stranded in tankers, Bessent says
The U.S. may soon remove sanctions on Iranian oil stranded on tankers at sea, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday as Washington seeks to curb prices soaring over Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that’s on the water. It’s about 140 million barrels,” Bessent told Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria” program.
He said the release of the sanctioned Iranian oil into global supplies would help keep oil prices down for the next 10 to 14 days.
The Treasury recently took a similar step to temporarily allow the sale of sanctioned Russian oil stranded on tankers, which Bessent said added around 130 million barrels to global supplies.
A source familiar with the Treasury’s planning said that if the Trump administration eases sanctions on Iranian oil, one option would be a waiver similar to one used for Russian oil, allowing sales of crude already stranded at sea and confined to a narrow time frame.
“A potential waiver could accelerate the diversion of oil already destined for China into global markets more broadly, helping ensure adequate supply and blunting Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz,” said the source, who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Bessent said the U.S. would take other actions to increase oil supply, including a unilateral release of stocks from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve above last week’s coordinated joint G7 release of 400 million barrels.
He said the Treasury would “absolutely not” try to intervene in oil futures markets, but would take actions to increase physical supplies to try to make up for the 10 million to 14 million barrel-per-day deficit caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“So, to be clear, we’re not intervening in the financial markets. We are supplying the physical markets,” Bessent said.
- Reuters
03/19/26 16:10
FedEx raises full-year forecast, shares jump in post market
FedEx (FDX-N) on Thursday raised its full-year profit forecast as it reported a rise in third-quarter profit and revenue, helped by a surge in deliveries during the all-important holiday quarter. Shares rose 3% in the post market.
The company now expects adjusted profit for its fiscal year ending May 31 to be between US$19.30 and US$20.10 per share.
The Memphis-based company in December forecast annual profit of US$17.80 to US$19.00 per share.
FedEx said operating results in its Express unit improved in the third quarter, helped by stronger U.S. and international package pricing, higher domestic volumes and ongoing cost cuts.
Adjusted earnings for its crucial winter holiday quarter rose to US$5.25 per share from US$4.51 a year earlier, even as it absorbed millions in unexpected costs related to truck and plane replacements for its MD-11 fleet, which was grounded after a deadly UPS crash in November 2025.
The company also said that it now expects its full-year revenue to be up in the range of 6.0% to 6.5% year-over-year, compared to its previous forecast of a growth between 5% and 6%.
- Reuters
03/19/26 15:53
Israel says it will stop striking Iran’s gas field
Iran intensified its attacks on oil and natural gas facilities around the Gulf on Thursday, raising the stakes in a war that is rattling energy markets and the global economy.
The strikes, in retaliation for an Israeli attack on a key Iranian gas field, sent fuel prices soaring and risked drawing Iran’s Arab neighbors directly into the conflict. Global fuel supplies were already under pressure because of Iran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil is transported.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said late Thursday that, at the request of President Donald Trump, Israel will hold off on any further attacks on the Iranian gas field.
– The Associated Press
03/19/26 15:50
U.S. stocks erase big losses
Anthony Matesic, left, and James Denaro work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York on Thursday.Seth Wenig/The Associated Press
A roller-coaster day for oil prices on Thursday showed how tight a grip they have on the economy and stock markets worldwide. Stocks tumbled in Europe and Asia when oil prices shot higher early in the day, but U.S. stocks erased their sharp losses as the day progressed and oil prices fell back.
The morning began as a scary one after Brent crude, the international standard, briefly rose above $119 per barrel, up from roughly $70 before the war with Iran began.
The jump came after Iran intensified attacks on oil and gas facilities around the Persian Gulf in response to an Israeli attack on an important Iranian natural gas field. That worsened fears that the war may knock out production of oil and gas in the Gulf for a long time, which would mean high prices could last a while and cause inflation to rip higher around the world.
Stock indexes dropped 3.4 per cent in Japan 2.8 percent in Germany and 2.7 per cent in South Korea. But oil prices pared their big gains as the day progressed, the latest in their hour-to-hour swings since the war began.
Brent oil settled at $108.65, up only 1.2 per cent from the day before, and then eased further as trading continued. After briefly topping $101, a barrel of benchmark of benchmark U.S. crude settled at $96.14 and then eased toward $93.
That helped stocks on Wall Street pare their own losses, which were already more modest than in Europe and Asia because U.S. companies are less reliant on oil from the Middle East.
The S&P 500 was down 0.1 per cent in late trading after nearly erasing an earlier drop of 1 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 72 points, or 0.1 per cent, with a little more than a half-hour remaining in trading, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.1 per cent lower.
The yo-yo effect hit the bond market, too, where Treasury yields jumped in the morning with the price of oil and then eased back.
The two-year Treasury yield got as high as 3.96 per cent and touched its highest level since the summer before pulling back to 3.79 per cent. It tends to follow expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with short-term interest rates.
– The Associated Press
03/19/26 15:18
Netanyahu says Iran no longer has uranium enrichment capacity
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a press conference in Jerusalem on Thursday.RONEN ZVULUN/AFP/Getty Images
Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles after 20 days of U.S.-Israeli air attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a news conference on Thursday.
“We are winning, and Iran is being decimated,” Netanyahu said, noting that Iran’s missile and drone arsenal is being massively degraded and will be destroyed.
“What we’re destroying now are the factories that produce the components to make these missiles and to make the nuclear weapons that they’re trying to produce,” Netanyahu said.
Netanyahu did not provide evidence for his claim that Iran no longer had the capacity to enrich uranium.
Iran’s nuclear programme was the focus of mediated talks that ultimately collapsed with the U.S. and Israel launching an air attack on Iran on February 28. Iran has fired missiles back at Israel and other Gulf countries while also limiting tankers from using the Straight of Hormuz.
Despite the nearly three week war, it was still too soon to tell whether Iranians will take to the streets to try to overthrow their government, Netanyahu said.
“It’s up to the Iranian people to show that, to choose the moment and to rise to the moment,” he said.
While the war so far has been conducted via air attacks, Netanyahu said there has to be a ground component as well and “there are many possibilities for this ground component.” He did not elaborate.
Netanyahu also denied he dragged the United States into the conflict.
“Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do?” he said.
- Reuters
03/19/26 15:13
Canadian dollar strengthens, benchmark yield climbs
The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback on Thursday, and the yield on benchmark government debt climbed.
The loonie was trading 0.1 per cent higher at C$1.3724 to the greenback, or 72.87 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3706 to 1.3748.
Canadian government 10-year bond yields rose 0.7 basis points to 3.46 per cent. The yield on similar U.S. government benchmark debt rose to 4.2807 per cent.
03/19/26 15:10
Canada, allies say they’re ready to help stop Iran’s shipping blockade
Cargo ships sail in the Persian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz in UAE on Thursday.The Associated Press/The Associated Press
Prime Minister Mark Carney has endorsed a statement from Canada and its allies expressing their willingness to contribute to efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz more than two weeks into the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
The statement does not say how they propose to help, although Defence Minister David McGuinty says Canada is “considering” aiding Iran’s neighbours if they seek assistance from the NATO alliance.
In response to the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes launched on its territory last month, Iran limited traffic through the strait — through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas transits — and bombed major fuel shipping sites, causing global oil prices to spike.
Canada joined the statement shortly after it was published by the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan.
Next week, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand will be pitching her G7 peers in Paris on possible off-ramps to end the war.
Anand tells The Canadian Press that Iran’s blockage risks humanitarian crises in poor countries, and she is working with both traditional allies and newer Middle East partners to protect civilians.
– The Canadian Press
03/19/26 14:55
U.S. crude heads to Asia via Panama Canal as Iran crisis redraws trade flows
Cargo ships wait to transit the Panama Canal on the Pacific side, in Panama City on March 13.MARTIN BERNETTI/AFP/Getty Images
Asian refiners are increasingly sending medium-sized crude cargoes from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia through the Panama Canal as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran disrupts trade flows, raises shipping costs and forces Asian refiners to hunt for alternative supplies.
The use of medium-sized tankers that typically cost more per barrel to transport crude, coupled with Asian companies’ willingness to pay additional fees to move oil through the Panama Canal, underscores their urgent need for oil and the heavy price of the war.
The Greece-flagged Aframax vessel Sea Turtle crossed the Panama Canal on Thursday after loading at the port of Houston, ship tracking data showed, signalling the port of Yeosu in South Korea as its destination. That marks the first crude vessel that has headed to Korea from the U.S. Gulf Coast via the waterway since September 2022, ship tracking data from Kpler showed.
The Liberia-flagged Suezmax vessel Aquahonor, with a capacity of 1 million barrels, was also booked to carry crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast to South Korea via the Panama Canal for $16 million, two shipping sources said.
Another Suezmax tanker, the Hong Kong-flagged Front Singapore, was also chartered to carry oil from the U.S. Gulf Coast via the Panama Canal to Japan for $14 million, according to one of the sources. That would be only the third crude ship taking the route in nearly five years, Kpler data showed.
– Reuters
03/19/26 14:42
Crude oil to make up bulk of IAE’s record stockpile release
A worker operates valves at the Rumaila oil field in Basra, Iraq, on March 4.Essam Al-Sudani/Reuters
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday detailed the breakdown of its previously agreed record release of around 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to deal with the effects of the U.S-Israeli war with Iran, adding that crude oil would make up the bulk of it.
“The overall release of emergency stocks will largely consist of crude oil, while in Europe the contributions will primarily take the form of refined oil products. This is being complemented by additional production from countries in the Americas,” said the IEA, publishing a breakdown of the release in a table on its website.
– Reuters
03/19/26 14:28
Wall Street bank capital to fall 4.8% under new rules, in win for industry
Wall Street bank capital would fall 4.8 per cent under softened rules regulators unveiled on Thursday, freeing up billions of dollars for lending, dividends and share buybacks in a stunning victory for the industry, which had faced double-digit hikes under a previous plan laid out in 2023.
The sweeping proposal changes to how banks calculate funds they put aside to absorb losses should be a boon for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank and other lenders that have fought to overhaul U.S. capital rules, although analysts warned some will benefit more than others.
Capital levels at larger regional banks such as PNC and Truist would fall by 5.2 per cent, the Federal Reserve said, while banks with less than $100 billion in assets would enjoy a 7.8 per cent decline.
In a statement, Fed officials said the changes, which include a rewrite of the contentious “Basel III” draft and adjustments to the “GSIB surcharge” would enhance and streamline the capital framework while ensuring U.S. banks “continue to be safe, sound, and able to support the U.S. economy.”
Critics, meanwhile, say they will weaken financial system safeguards just as geopolitical and private credit risks are surging, with some major U.S. banks tightening lending while funds have capped withdrawals.
– Reuters
03/19/26 14:23
Goldman Sachs flags upside risks to oil prices in near term and into 2027
Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside both in the near term and into 2027.
The bank added that the persistence of several past large supply shocks highlights the possibility that oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs said its base case assumes a gradual recovery in oil flows from April, with Brent easing to the $70s by the fourth quarter of 2026, but warned that risks to the long-term outlook remain elevated due to the Iran war and uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The bank said supply could remain constrained for longer if production capacity is damaged, though output could rise if OPEC deploys spare capacity once flows resume.
Goldman said the shock linked to the Straight of Hormuz would be the largest on record and analyzed the persistence of production losses across the five biggest supply disruptions of the past 50 years.
The banks base case assumes oil production normalizes within four weeks of a full reopening, but flagged meaningful downside risks to long-term supply, particularly from Iran and offshore production.
Goldman Sachs said in the short term oil prices are likely to keep rising while flows through Hormuz remain constrained, adding that Brent could surpass its 2008 peak if disruption risks persist.
It also said any increase in perceived risks of U.S. export curbs could further widen the Brent-WTI spread.
– Reuters
03/19/26 13:02
Why is gold cratering? Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni has some thoughts
- Darcy Keith
Gold is down about 6 per cent at midday and is now down more than US$700 an ounce since March 2, a couple days after the start of the Middle East conflict.
There are mounting concerns the war will continue for some time to come. So why isn’t gold - known for being one of the market’s biggest safe haven investments - doing so poorly amid the surge in geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty?
Recent strength in the U.S. dollar - which tends to move inversely to gold - can explain some of gold’s lack of glitter of late. But that unlikely explains all of it, given the greenback’s moves against major currencies have been relatively rangebound by comparison to the precious metal.
Veteran Wall Street analyst Ed Yardeni offered up some other suggestions on why gold has lost its popularity in a note to clients today.
“The always-reliable quick answer is: profit-taking following a meteoric rise. Perhaps investors in the Middle East are selling gold to buy the US dollar, which has strengthened during the war, even though both are considered safe havens. Rising bond yields might also explain gold’s recent meltdown. The probability of further Fed rate cuts is falling as inflation heats up,” he said.
“Technically speaking, gold’s price dropped below a short-term uptrend line this week. The next uptrend support line could be tested closer to $4,000. Another technical explanation is that the gold price rose too far, too fast since early last year, jumping above its ascending channel this year.”
“We are still targeting gold at $6,000 by the end of this year and $10,000 by the end of 2029. However, we are considering lowering our year-end target back to $5,000 if gold continues to defy our expectations that it should be rising on unsettling geopolitical developments, rising inflation, and mounting US government debt.”
“From a sentiment perspective, the recent drop in GLD’s stock price on high volume suggests panic selling. From a contrarian perspective, that could soon make a bottom in the recent selloff.”
GLD-A, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, is the world’s largest physically backed gold exchange-traded fund
03/19/26 12:24
Iran attacks wipe out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says
Iranian attacks have knocked out 17 per cent of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated US$20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy’s CEO and state minister for energy affairs told Reuters on Thursday.
Saad al-Kaabi said two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in the unprecedented strikes. The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tons per year of LNG for three to five years, he said in an interview.
“I never in my wildest dreams would have thought that Qatar would be - Qatar and the region - in such an attack, especially from a brotherly Muslim country in the month of Ramadan, attacking us in this way,” Kaabi said.
Hours earlier Iran had aimed a series of attacks at Gulf oil and gas facilities after Israeli attacks on its own gas infrastructure.
State-owned QatarEnergy will have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years for LNG supplies bound for Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China due to the two damaged trains, Kaabi said.
- Reuters
03/19/26 12:14
Trump says Netanyahu agreed not to attack Iran’s energy fields
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he had told Benjamin Netanyahu not to attack Iranian energy fields, adding that the Israeli Prime Minister had agreed not to.
“I told him, ‘Don’t do that’, and he won’t do that,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.
- Reuters
03/19/26 12:12
U.S. front-end yields rise sharply as Fed rate cuts priced out
U.S. Treasury yields jumped at the front end of the curve on Thursday, as caution stemming from decisions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank — against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict — spilled into the world’s largest bond market.
The moves prompted investors to price out expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year, based on LSEG estimates. U.S. rate futures pointed to just 7 basis points (bps) of easing from the Fed this year, way down from the 21 bps of easing seen late on Wednesday. There was also no rate cut priced for the first half of 2027.
The U.S. central bank, in its forecast released on Wednesday following its two-day policy meeting, has pencilled in a rate cut of 25 basis points later this year and another in 2027.
The two-year yield, which is typically most responsive to changes in expectations for inflation and interest rates, hit 3.96%, its highest since August 2025, and was last up 11.9 bps to 3.866%. On the longer end of the curve, the benchmark 10-year yield rose 2.2 bps to 4.279%, after earlier hitting its highest since late August.
Analysts said the rise in Treasury yields accelerated after the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep borrowing costs unchanged, citing inflation risks linked to the conflict. Some policymakers even raised the prospect of further rate increases.
At the same time, the European Central Bank held its key interest rate steady and warned that the war in Iran was clouding the outlook for growth and inflation in the euro zone.
The BoE and ECB decisions “reminded Treasury investors that, as much as the Fed was signaling patience yesterday, it’s really possible that central banks could prioritize inflation over everything else in this type of supply-shock scenario,” said Will Compernolle, macro strategist, at FHN Financial in Chicago.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the environment was subject to unusually high uncertainty as policymakers take stock of the impact of the war on Iran. The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday in the 3.50%-3.75% target range and projected higher inflation, as well as steady unemployment.
Inflation swaps, a gauge of the outlook for future consumer prices, spiked to a six-month peak of roughly 3.3% in one-year maturities. This suggested that investors believe that the consumer price index will average more than 3% over the next 12 months, higher than the 2.4% year-on-year CPI reading for February.
- Reuters
03/19/26 11:23
U.S. objectives in Iran have not changed, Hegseth says
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Thursday the United States’ objectives in the war against Iran have not changed since strikes started on February 28.
The United States has carried out strikes against 7,000 targets inside Iran, and hit more than 40 Iranian mine-laying vessels and 11 submarines.
“Our objectives, given directly from our America-first president, remain exactly what they were on day one,” Hegseth told reporters.
“These are not the media’s objectives, not Iran’s objectives, not new objectives. Our objectives - unchanged, on target and on plan,” Hegseth added. He spent several minutes in his opening statement criticizing the press.
Hegseth told reporters that the objectives remained to destroy Iran’s missile launchers, as well as its defense industrial base and navy and to never allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon.
Reuters reported on Wednesday that President Donald Trump’s administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the U.S. military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against Iran.
Those options include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a mission that would be accomplished primarily through air and naval forces, the sources said. But securing the strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops to Iran’s shoreline, sources told Reuters.
In the same briefing, General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the U.S. military remained on track to achieve its objectives and that the United States was striking deeper into Iranian territory every day.
But Caine acknowledged Iran still retained some missile capabilities.
“They came into this fight with a lot of weapons,” Caine said.
- Reuters
03/19/26 11:16
AutoCanada shares slammed after analyst downgrades and lacklustre earnings
- Darcy Keith
Shares in AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T) plunged nearly 20% in Toronto trading this morning after disappointing fourth-quarter results that had at least two analysts downgrading the stock.
National Bank analyst Maxim Sytchev downgraded his rating to “sector perform” from “outperform” while cutting his price target to C$24 from C$29. Canaccord Genuity analyst Luke Hannan downgraded his rating to a “hold” from a “buy” and slashed his target all the way to C$22 from C$42.
“While we were expecting a soft quarter, the magnitude of the miss vs. our and consensus’ expectations is likely enough to shake investors’ confidence in ACQ’s ability to generate operating leverage off of a lower cost base in 2026 and beyond,” Mr. Hannan said.
Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations of $32.7 million was well short of Mr. Hannan’s Street-low $41.7 million forecast, and consensus’ $44.6 million.
Read more in my Upgrades and Downgrades report today, which also includes the latest analyst actions on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. and Boyd Group Services Inc.
03/19/26 10:27
Rosenberg Research: Four scenarios for the Middle East conflict - and what it means for portfolio positioning
- Darcy Keith
Rosenberg Research senior economist Robert Embree is assigning odds to various scenarios in the Middle East.
- “Scenario 1: A Decisive U.S.-Israeli Win (20% chance) — regime collapse now looks unlikely in the next four weeks, but is still possible
- Scenario 2: Trump Finds a Way to Back Down (50% chance) — the war ends in four to six weeks with a negotiated settlement, or more likely a “Declared American Victory” without achieving war aims
- Scenario 3: Messy Intermediate Conflict (20% chance) — the war lasts one to three months, and both sides claim they are achieving their goals
- Scenario 4: Escalation and Extended Disruption (10% chance) — the war lasts three to nine months, with the Red Sea also becoming affected by Houthi attacks. The fourth scenario involves an almost certain recession in all advanced countries, where growth effects on consumer spending would eventually dominate inflation effects (with a lag)"
Mr. Embree, in a note to clients of the research firm founded by David Rosenberg, predicted oil and gas markets will not fully normalize under any of these scenarios.
“An absolute minimum conflict premium of $5-$10 will remain in WTI and Brent prices in the second half of the year, and probably more like $15-$20, from lost Iranian supply and from tail risks. Long-term, this will force a global re-orientation of supply chains and energy relationships,” he said.
As for stock markets, “equities will continue to see dispersed effects (Energy, Defense, select Utilities benefiting, while cyclicals and most rate-sensitives decline) — but are net lower in all four scenarios.“
The bottom line? “In all of these scenarios, we think markets are slightly underestimating the negative growth effects (because downside risks to equities will reduce the equity wealth effect, which is underappreciated as a key support for growth). We also think markets are overstating the inflation effects, because the inflation shocks will be “truly” transitory. Unlike in 2022, none of the burst of inflation is being accommodated through monetary or fiscal policy. Defensive positioning is required in any scenario."
03/19/26 10:17
Unexpected decline in U.S. weekly jobless claims signals stable labour market
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to stable labour market conditions and a rebound in job growth in March.
The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday, the most timely data on the economy’s health, showed no impact yet on the jobs market from the dragging war in the Middle East, which has sent global oil and domestic gasoline prices soaring. Economists have warned that higher energy prices and tightening financial conditions could undermine consumer and business spending and be a drag on the labour market.
“Producers are unlikely to fire staff while there is a strong chance the jump in prices is temporary,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “But elevated uncertainty, the recent tightening of financial conditions and high borrowing costs for small businesses will continue to weigh on hiring.”
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 205,000 for the week ended March 14, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week.
- Reuters
03/19/26 10:07
Citi’s surprise index shows longest upside run since financial crisis, awaits war impact
Global economic growth has continued to outperform expectations for 14 straight months — just as the war in Iran fuels fresh concerns about energy prices and global stability — putting the world economy on track for its longest run of upside surprises since the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Citi’s popular economic surprise metric, which measures how economic data in the prior three months differs from consensus forecasts, has been in positive territory since January 2025, suggesting that economists overestimated hits from geopolitical turmoil and U.S. tariff hikes.
On Thursday it is set to overtake its post-Covid-19 streak, making this its second longest on record, behind the 2009-2011 period.
The index does not yet reflect the impact of the war in the Middle East, which has pushed oil prices up and renewed growth worries and will take time to feed into economic data.
“There is no reason for it to be consistently positive, surprises are normally pretty random, and expectations should adjust to past surprises,” said Kristjan Kasikov, global head of Citi FX Quant Investor Solutions.
“The fact that this has not happened over the past year, means economists have been too stubborn in not adjusting their expectations for better than expected growth,” said Kasikov, who created the index 20 years ago.
“They expected the fallout from trade uncertainty and geopolitics to weigh on growth, and that did not happen.”
He said export and industrial production figures had been particular contributors to the outperformance.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of tariffs on U.S. imports early in 2025. While they have been reduced from the highest levels, which shocked markets when they were announced in April, they remain relatively high.
Massive investment in artificial intelligence and an expansionary fiscal policy from many governments have bolstered growth.
Still, analysts expect the oil price surge to weigh in the months ahead, especially if higher costs spark a broader surge in inflation and force central banks to raise interest rates.
Kasikov said for most of 2025 data showed global growth was decelerating, but by less than economists had expected. In the fourth quarter this shifted and growth indicators began to accelerate, and by more than expectations.
He also said this could explain why global equities performed well in 2025.
- Reuters
03/19/26 10:03
World trade growth set to slow to 1.9% this year, Iran war may weigh more, says WTO
Growth in world trade in goods will slow down markedly to 1.9% this year from 4.6% in 2025 and could decelerate even more if the Middle East war continues to push energy prices higher and disrupt global transport, a World Trade Organization report said on Thursday.
Last year a surge in artificial intelligence-related trade and goods front-loading to avoid a slew of U.S. tariffs enabled a better-than-expected growth performance. While global trade remains resilient, buoyed by trade in AI-related products, the growth forecast is under pressure from the expanding U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.
If crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain high throughout 2026 due to the conflict, global trade in goods could slow further to 1.4%, WTO economists said.
A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, choking one-third of fertilizer urea imports, risks hitting major producers like India, Thailand, Brazil, fuelling food security risks, the WTO report said. Sustained high energy prices could shave 0.5 percentage points off global merchandise growth, with Asian and European fuel-reliant importers hit hardest.
Services trade also faces a 0.7-point drop from growth forecasts of 4.8% to 4.1% due to shipping and flights disruption, the report found. Last year services trade grew by 5.3%.
- Reuters
03/19/26 09:54
ECB keeps rates on hold as Iran war clouds outlook
The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate at 2% on Thursday and warned that the war in Iran was clouding the outlook for growth and inflation in the euro zone.
“The war in the Middle East ... will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices,” the ECB said. “Its medium-term implications will depend both on the intensity and duration of the conflict and on how energy prices affect consumer prices and the economy.”
The euro zone’s central bank kept its options open, however, saying it was monitoring the war and its impact on inflation, both including and excluding energy prices, and growth.
“The Governing Council is well positioned to navigate this uncertainty,” the ECB said. “Inflation has been at around the 2% target, longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored, and the economy has shown resilience over recent quarters.”
Financial markets now expect euro zone inflation to climb close to 4% over the next year, then take years to return to the ECB’s 2% target.
Traders are pricing in two or three rate hikes by December, even as most economists still see no change, betting that the ECB would not tolerate another war-fuelled spike in inflation after being stung by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago.
With Thursday’s decision, the ECB left its policy rate at 2%, roughly matching February inflation, which pre-dates the first attacks on Iran on February 28.
- Reuters
03/19/26 09:50
Aluminum slides 8%, copper hits three-month low as speculators run for cover on Iran war fallout
Aluminum prices tumbled 8% on Thursday as speculators scrambled to liquidate bullish positions while copper sunk to a three-month low on worries that surging oil prices will hit global growth at the same time the market is swamped with plentiful inventories.
Benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange tumbled as much as 8.4%, paring losses to 7.2% at US$3,154.50 a metric ton in official open-outcry trading.
Prices of the lightweight metal, used in transport, construction and packaging, had climbed in recent weeks due to worries about supply following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, a major producer.
Speculators who were betting on further price gains have had to liquidate their positions as fears about the impact of the war on the global economy swept through global financial markets.
Options hedging activity contributed to the sharp fall in aluminium, with a drop through the $3,300 level triggering big volumes, said Alastair Munro, senior base metals strategist at broker Marex.
LME copper slid 3.8% to $11,925 a ton in official activity after dropping to $11,754, its lowest since December 19.
“What higher oil prices do is curb demand across the economy, and if you curb demand that just means less metal being used,” said Carsten Menke, analyst at Julius Baer in Zurich.
Traders also warily eyed the growing pile of copper building up in exchange-certified warehouses, with LME inventories having shot up 135% so far this year to the highest since August 2019.
- Reuters
03/19/26 09:36
Wall Street opens lower as oil prices gain; Russell 2000 slides
Wall Street’s main indexes opened lower on Thursday as crude prices soared on intensifying Middle East hostilities, reviving inflation worries that have prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious stance on interest rate cuts.
The rate-sensitive small-caps Russell 2000 index dropped 10 per cent from its all-time intraday high.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 90.3 points, or 0.20 per cent, at the open to 46,134.87. The S&P 500 fell 41.6 points, or 0.63 per cent, at the open to 6,583.12, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 281.4 points, or 1.27 per cent, to 21,871.037 at the opening bell.
– Reuters
03/19/26 09:35
TSX opens lower as escalation in Mideast conflict rattles markets
Canada’s main stock index opened lower on Thursday as an escalation in the Middle East conflict following attacks on energy infrastructure in the region sapped risk appetite, while miners slid tracking metal prices lower.
At 09:31 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was down 1.6 per cent at 31,798.87.
– Reuters
03/19/26 09:16
Canadian dollar strengthens, benchmark yield climbs
The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback on Thursday, and the yield on benchmark government debt climbed.
The loonie was trading 0 per cent higher at C$1.3725 to the greenback, or 72.86 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3715 to 1.3748.
Canadian government 10-year bond yields rose 3.7 basis points to 3.491 per cent. The yield on similar U.S. government benchmark debt rose to 4.3024 per cent.
U.S. April crude futures rose 71 cents to $97.03 a barrel on Thursday.
– Reuters
03/19/26 09:12
Gold extends losing streak on expectations of tighter policy from central banks
Gold coins are pictured at a local shop in Bonn, Germany. Gold prices dropped over 5 per cent on Thursday, falling for a seventh consecutive session.Jana Rodenbusch/Reuters
Gold prices dropped over 5 per cent on Thursday, falling for a seventh consecutive session, as the Middle East conflict increased energy prices and ignited inflation concerns, raising expectations that top central banks will keep borrowing costs elevated.
Spot gold fell 5.5 per cent to $4,552.38 per ounce by 8:46 a.m. ET (12:46 p.m. GMT), its lowest since early February.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 7 per cent to $4,554.70.
“Gold is now a very widely held position for institutional investors and that has been on the back of the debasement trade over the last year. But the foundations of that trade are now weakening,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.
“For the near term, we continue to see risk to the downside. There is a very substantial amount of room for gold to sell off while maintaining its bull market era trend support,” he added.
Gold is prized as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical turmoil, but because it does not generate interest, it tends to lose appeal in periods when rates are high.
– Reuters
03/19/26 09:05
Batteries and energy storage will be the big winners from data centre power demand
- Scott Barlow
Morgan Stanley analysts are big believers in new sodium ion batteries and energy storage systems broadly. The following is from Morgan Stanley’s morning research summary (it’s written more clearly than the report itself).
“MS Research Analysts Jack Lu and Dave Arcaro and MS Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research Stephen Byrd highlight that the quest to power the AI boom has significantly re-rated the global power value chain, creating a market worth over $1.5tr in the past two years. While power capacity is facing supply chain constraints across the board, the team believes the next opportunity will be in energy storage systems (ESS), as investment in AI infrastructure continues to accelerate and inference workloads inflect, shifting the focus on AI from energy availability to power volatility, system flexibility, and time-to-power. The team adds that the ESS cost advantage can be seen not only in its levelized cost of energy (LCOE), but more importantly in the ability of electricity inventory to defer or downsize the high opportunity costs of traditional capital-intensive power infrastructure. They believe this time-to-power flexibility and infrastructure deferral value meaningfully enhance the economic case for storage. They highlight that battery costs will likely continue to evolve with the coming of the sodium-ion era, cheaper and safer, with the ability to deliver steady energy at low temperatures. The team forecasts global ESS annual incremental deployment from data centers at ~321GWh by 2030, 169GWh in the US, 85GWh in China, and 68GWh in ROW, vs. a global power market utility scale of 325GWh in 2025, which they also expect to increase at a 22 per cent CAGR by 2030, driven by the economic energy transition. Overall, the team expects a 30 per cent CAGR in global ESS annual incremental deployment by 2030. They call out Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (300750 CS OW, CNY530 PT), Tesla (Covered by MS Research Analyst Andrew Percoco, EW, $415 PT), LG Energy Solution (Covered by MS Research Analyst Young Suk Shin, 373220 KP EW, KRW380000 PT), Fluence (EW, $16 PT), and BYD Company Limited (Covered by MS Research Analyst Tim Hsiao, 002594 CS, CNY125 PT) as high-conviction stock beneficiaries.”
03/19/26 08:37
Investors asking the wrong question about energy stocks
- Scott Barlow
Citi analyst Alastair Syme thinks portfolio managers are asking the wrong question regarding oil and gas stocks.
“The most-asked question we are getting is “what oil price are the stocks discounting”? While this is an understandable question given the sharp rally in Energy equities over the past three weeks on the back of oil market disruption, we challenge the central premise behind the question that energy equities are simply a proxy for oil prices. Remember that energy equities outperformed (falling) oil prices by 30 per cent in 2025. In our mind, the better valuation reference is that IOC energy equities are only pricing +0.5 per cent p.a. terminal growth, below the 1.4 per cent p.a. trend growth in global oil and gas demand. This gap that suggests market positioning still fails to recognize the criticality of oil and gas to the global economy which, if anything, is a relationship that has been acutely reminded of over the past few weeks."
In a roundabout way, this report reminded me that tobacco stocks were the top performers in U.S. markets during the 20th century. A sector that generalist institutional managers would rather not own that continues to churn out profits.
03/19/26 08:25
Citi strategist highlights these stocks with improving profit margins
- Scott Barlow
A very interesting report from Citi analyst Drew Pettit screens markets for companies with improving profitability that is not dependent on financial engineering,
“Our ongoing fundamental narrative across our U.S. Equity Strategy platform has been operational improvement has mattered more post-pandemic, especially against a backdrop of increasing trade uncertainty and technological innovation. To express this, we created the ROE Trend Baskets which focus on forward ROE improvement driven by improving margins and higher total asset turnover, not financial engineering. Essentially, the second derivative [change in the rate of change] of quality, not the factor itself, creates a more differentiated exposure that has become our flagship thematic. In this report, we rebalance the baskets, highlight their use cases, and dive into underlying exposures, macro connections, fundamental details, and risks”
Stocks that screened most positive include DoorDash Inc. (DASH-Q), News Corp. (NWSA-Q), Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG-Q), Celsius Holdings (CELH-Q), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO-Q), International Flavors and Fragrances (IFF-N), Stanley Black and Decker Inc. (SWK-N), Newmont Corp. (NGT-T), Amcor PLC, Boeing Co. (AMCR-N), Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. (EL-N) and Medtronic PLC (MDT-N).
03/19/26 08:18
Bank of England holds main interest rate at 3.75% as Iran war jolts inflation expectations
A direction sign is seen near the Bank of England building in London, Britain, February 3, 2025.Toby Melville/Reuters
The Bank of England has held its main interest rate at 3.75 per cent in the wake of the oil and gas price hikes following the start of the Iran war.
The decision Thursday was widely anticipated after the United States and Israel started bombing Iran less than three weeks ago.
Until then, it was a seen as nearly certainty that the Bank of England would cut interest rates as inflation in the U.K. was expected to fall towards the 2 per cent target in the coming months.
The Iran war has done much to upend those predictions as well as the wider global economic forecasts, not least in how it will affect prices.
The longer the Iran war and the associated closure of the Strait of Hormuz go on, the greater the economic pain will be. A fifth of the world’s crude oil goes through the strait.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada also held interest rates and cautioned about the increasingly uncertain outlook.
Keeping interest rates higher than they otherwise would have been can help keep a lid on inflation. High interest rates weigh on the economy by making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow, thereby bearing down on economic activity and consequently price pressures.
- The Associated Press
03/19/26 07:39
Accenture forecasts quarterly revenue below estimates as clients delay enterprise spending
The logo of Irish services and consulting company Accenture is seen at an temporary office during the World Economic Forum 2022 in Davos, Switzerland.ARND WIEGMANN/Reuters
Accenture (ACN-N) forecast quarterly revenue below estimates on Thursday, as clients remain cautious on spending on large IT transformation projects amid an uncertain economic environment. Shares of the Dublin, Ireland-based company were down more than 3 per cent in premarket trading.
The company has been navigating a challenging economic environment, as clients delay large digital transformation projects and prioritize cost control and short-term initiatives. Accenture expects a 1-per-cent revenue hit for fiscal 2026 from a slowdown in its federal business as agencies are reining in spending and redirecting budgets. Analysts have said AI should support growth over the long term, but weak demand due to cautious client spending is unlikely to fully recover before 2028.
The company expects fiscal third-quarter revenue between US$18.35-billion and US$19.00-billion, with the midpoint slightly below analysts’ average estimate of US$18.72-billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Accenture said its forecast reflects the company’s best view of the potential impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
The company’s revenue rose 8.3 per cent to US$18.04-billion for the second quarter, beating estimates of US$17.84-billion.
Accenture reported a profit of US$2.93 per share, compared with US$2.82 per share in the same quarter last year.
New bookings, a metric that measures future revenue based on contracts, rose 6 per cent to US$22.1-billion in the second quarter.
- Reuters
03/19/26 07:55
Domestic bank stocks growing strongly, still expensive
- Scott Barlow
Royal Bank analyst Darko Mihelic outlines the strong growth in the domestic bank sector yet also shows how the sector is expensive relative to history.
“In Q1/26, the median core EPS for the large Canadian banks we cover increased ~12 per cent QoQ and ~17 per cent YoY. Our 2026 core EPS estimates increased for all the banks in the group: we modelled higher stage 3 (impaired) provision for credit losses (PCLs) and increased our estimates for Canada P&C, Capital Markets, International P&C for most banks in our coverage; our model updates to Wealth Management were mixed. We expect average core EPS growth of ~17 per cent in 2026 and ~10 per cent in 2027 … as of March 16, the Canadian bank index traded at 13.2x on a forward P/E basis, above its long-term historical averages (Exhibit A14). On a P/B basis, the Canadian bank index traded at 2.01x, above the 10-year average of 1.64x (Exhibit A17). YTD as of March 16, the Canadian bank index’s total return was 1.0 per cent versus the U.S. bank index’s negative total return of 11.1 per cent YTD."
Mr. Mihelic is sketching out a recipe for volatility here. If bank stocks are expensive, and the earnings growth rate is set to slow meaningfully in 2027, this is not the backdrop of a rally.
03/19/26 07:52
Brent crude nears $115 after Iran attacks key energy facilities in the Gulf
An employee refuels a car at a gas station in Kuwait City on March 10. The Iran war has sent oil prices soaring.YASSER AL-ZAYYAT/AFP/Getty Images
Global energy prices soared Thursday after Iran attacked two oil refineries in Kuwait and a key natural gas facility in Qatar that can supply one-fifth of the world’s liquified natural gas.
The attacks added to fears the energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic may be longer and more extensive than feared, with lasting damage to oil and gas production.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose nearly 6 per cent to $113.77 per barrel, up from less than $73 per barrel on the eve of the war. U.S. benchmark crude was less affected by the latest attacks in the Middle East, rising less than 1 per cent to $96.26 per barrel.
The European TTF benchmark for natural gas prices traded 17 per cent higher on Thursday and has doubled in the past month.
The Iranian attack hit the Ras Laffan terminal for shipping out liquefied natural gas in Qatar. Qatar normally supplies some 20 per cent of the world’s consumption of LNG, which can be carried by ship. The facility shut down after a drone attack. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most tanker traffic also left the gas with nowhere to go.
If the disruptions from Iran’s attacks on its Gulf Arab neighbours’ energy infrastructure keep oil and gas prices high for long, they could create a debilitating wave of inflation for the global economy.
Markets on Wall Street slipped before the opening bell. Futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each fell a 0.1 per cent, while Nasdaq futures dipped 0.3 per cent.
- The Associated Press
03/19/26 07:48
Canadian dollar weakens against U.S. greenback
– S.R. Slobodian
The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart.
The day range on the loonie was 72.73 US cents to 72.94 US cents in early trading. The Canadian dollar was down about 0.42 per cent against the greenback over the past month.
The U.S. dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a group of currencies, rose 0.05 per cent to 100.14.
The euro advanced 0.17 per cent to US$1.1472. The British pound gained 0.17 per cent to US$1.3279.
In bonds, the yield on the U.S. 10-year note was last up at 4.273 per cent.
03/19/26 07:48
Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today
– S.R. Slobodian
Global markets slid after a major escalation in the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran rattled investors.
Wall Street futures were in the red after major North American markets closed sharply down yesterday in the wake of hawkish central bank commentary.
TSX futures followed sentiment lower.
In Canada, investors are getting results from Premium Brands Holdings Corp. (PBH-T).
On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA-N), Accenture PLC (ACN-N), FedEx Corp. (FDX-N) and Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI-N).
“This latest escalation feels like a turning point for markets because the conflict is no longer just about military headlines or Strait of Hormuz closure,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore.
“It is now hitting the plumbing of the global energy system. What is unsettling markets now is the growing stagflation risk... It means this is no longer just a geopolitical story but a macro one."
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 2.15 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 2.13 per cent, Germany’s DAX dropped 2.47 per cent and France’s CAC 40 gave back 1.81 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 3.38 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.02 per cent.
Read more updates from before the bell.
03/19/26 07:44
Why Royal Bank is top bank pick at Scotiabank
- Scott Barlow
Scotiabank analyst Mike Rizvanovic is recommending Royal Bank to clients.
“OUR TAKE: Positive. With the recent run-up in the Capital Markets business that by most measures was at record levels in Q1-F26 across the peer group, investors remain concerned about a potential deceleration, which based on historical periods of elevated performance, could be meaningful. If a deceleration phase for the business does in fact materialize in the coming quarters, we believe RY is the best defensive name to own among the large banks as our analysis of longer-term trends shows RY to have the lowest volatility in trading revenue, and among the lowest volatility in other revenue lines (M&A advisory and securities commissions), segment earnings and PTPP earnings. We believe that favorable dynamic highlights the bank’s more diversified Capital Markets business and scale advantage relative to peers. Further supporting our increasingly positive bias on RY is the stock’s recent underperformance (-5 per cent YTD vs. a peer avg of +3 per cent), which has reduced the bank’s relative premium to 8 per cent, below its long-term average of 11 per cent, and we note that RY’s premium tends to increase in times of market uncertainty, which we believe describes the current environment. We reiterate our SO rating on RY and see a compelling entry point for investors.”
03/19/26 07:36
Swiss National Bank holds rates amid Iran war, watches franc strength
Headquarters of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) before its rate decision press conference in Zurich, Switzerland on Thursday.Denis Balibouse/Reuters
The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate on hold on Thursday in the face of uncertainty over the Iran war, and signalled its increased readiness to intervene in currency markets to curb a recent surge in the Swiss franc fuelled by a flight to safety amid the global turmoil.
The SNB maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0 per cent, the lowest among major central banks, as expected by a wide majority of analysts polled by Reuters.
The decision came on a busy day for central banks, after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept rates unchanged, highlighting unusually high uncertainty as policymakers take stock of the impact of the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran.
“Given the conflict in the Middle East, the SNB’s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased,” said SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel, reiterating the message the central bank sent to markets earlier this month.
“We thereby counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in Switzerland,” he said.
The franc weakened briefly after the decision, but soon recovered to trade a touch higher against the euro and dollar.
– Reuters
03/19/26 06:44
Europe tumbles on Iran war ahead of ECB, BoE meetings
European markets fell sharply on Thursday as the latest escalation in the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran sent oil prices soaring again and left top central banks grappling with when and how to handle the likely jump in inflation.
Attacks on Iran’s South Pars gas field, on the world’s largest gas plant in Qatar and on oil refineries in both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait sent Brent prices shooting to $115 a barrel , consigning the FTSEurofirst 300 to a near 2 per cent early drop.
Benchmark government bond yields - which set the global cost of borrowing - also rose as rate decisions from both the European Central Bank and Bank of England loomed after the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve both aired their concerns about the conflict.
Traders expect the ECB will have to deliver at least two rate hikes this year, from having priced around a 40 per cent chance of a cut in 2026 prior to the war erupting.
Switzerland’s central bank has already said it was keeping rates at zero, but signalled its readiness to intervene to curb the recent surge in the Swiss franc as investors look for traditional pockets of safety.
“Central banks are looking at this situation cautiously,” said FIM Partners’ CIO of emerging market debt Francesc Balcells.
“I don’t think they want to overreact (to the spike in energy prices), but they don’t want to make the same mistakes of the past either,” he said, referring to 2022 when central banks mistakenly judged the post-COVID, post-Ukraine invasion surge in inflation to be temporary.
– Reuters
03/19/26 06:08
TSX futures tick lower on escalating Iran conflict, weaker metals
Futures linked to Canada’s main stock exchange inched lower on Thursday as an escalation in the Iran war following attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East jolted investors, while a slump in metal prices added further pressure.
June futures on the S&P/TSX index were down 0.6 per cent at 06:03 a.m. ET.
Oil prices climbed again on Thursday with benchmark Brent hitting an over one-week high of more than $115 a barrel after Iran attacked energy facilities across the Middle East following Israel’s strike on its South Pars gas field.
While the spike in oil prices has lifted Canadian energy stocks up more than 34 per cent this year, outperforming peers, it has put global central banks in a bind over their monetary policy outlook.
The U.S., Canadian and Japanese central banks, among others, struck hawkish tones on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve projecting higher inflation and a single reduction in borrowing costs this year.
Money markets pushed rate cut bets to April 2027, not fully pricing in one from the Fed this year, according to data compiled by LSEG.
“The Fed is choosing to look through the fog of conflict, for now. A dual mandate Fed is not going to rock the interest rate boat during a supply shock,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group.
Meanwhile, Bank of Canada warned of rate hikes this year to combat inflation, even as Canada remains better insulated from energy-driven price pressures than peers, being a net oil exporter.
The hawkish shift in expectations strengthened the dollar, dragging gold and silver to more than one-month lows and copper to a three-month low.
– Reuters
03/19/26 05:00
U.S. stock futures dip as soaring oil prices, Fed outlook spook investors
U.S. stock index futures slipped on Thursday as crude prices soared on intensifying hostilities in the Middle East, reviving inflation worries that have prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious stance on interest rate cuts this year.
A strong forecast from Micron Technology did little touplift sentiment, with its shares dropping 5.9 per cent in premarket trading, as investors mulled the chip company’s higher spending plans given elevated borrowing costs.
Other memory chip stocks that have rallied this year were also knocked down. SanDisk fell 5.5 per cent, Western Digital slipped 2.9 per cent, while AI leader Nvidia dipped 0.3 per cent. Brent crude prices hit $115 a barrel after Iran attacked energy facilities across the Middle East in retaliation to Israel’s strike on its South Pars gas field.
The U.S. benchmark, however, was trading at its widest discount to Brent in 11 years due to releases from U.S. strategic reserves and higher freight costs.
The Fed left rates unchanged on Wednesday and Chair Jerome Powell flagged higher inflation ahead. He added it was too soon to gauge the repercussions of the war on the economy and stuck to the prior forecast of one 25-basis-point rate cut this year.
Morgan Stanley joined Goldman Sachs and Barclays in pushing back its forecast for an interest rate cut to September from June. Traders are no longer pricing in a rate cut for this year and LSEG-compiled data now points to a dovish move only in mid-2027.
- Reuters
03/19/26 05:00
Wednesday market recap: Canadian and U.S. stock markets fall amid BoC, Fed interest-rate decisions
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem in Ottawa on Wednesday.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Canadian and U.S. stock markets fell on Wednesday amid interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, with both central banks acknowledging inflationary risks from the war in the Middle East.
“It’s exactly what was expected, both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve paused today a lot of that is back to the uncertainty question -- what is the impact of this war going to be on inflation in the near term?” said Ashish Utarid, assistant vice-president of investment strategy with IG Wealth Management.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 616.42 points at 32,312.67.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 768.11 points at 46,225.15. The S&P 500 index was down 91.39 points at 6,624.70, while the Nasdaq composite was down 327.11 points at 22,152.42.
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25 per cent Wednesday as monetary policy-makers wait to see whether a surge in global oil prices tied to war in the Middle East becomes a wider inflation problem.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the energy price surge will almost certainly push inflation higher in the coming months.
Meanwhile, U.S. Fed officials expect the war will worsen inflation this year while having little impact on growth, but they still expect to cut the key rate once in 2026. For now, Fed policy-makers left short-term interest rates unchanged on Wednesday for the second straight meeting at about 3.6 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.96 US cents compared with 73.00 US cents on Tuesday.
- Globe staff, wires