Key Points
Booking has a long track record of steady growth.
The stock has sold off on the threat of AI disruption and from the war in Iran.
The travel sector is expected to grow over the long term.
2026 has been a rough year for the travel sector. Threats of AI disruption pressured software stocks, including online travel agencies, earlier this year, and now soaring oil prices are hammering airlines and other travel operators with direct exposure to fuel prices. Several airlines have already said that they will add a fuel surcharge to their prices, and higher fuel costs could impact short-haul travel by car, lowering overall spend on travel.
Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG), the world's largest online travel agency, hasn't been able to overcome that pressure. Year-to-date, the stock is down 23.1%, as it plunged after Anthropic rolled out a new plug-in for Claude that was seen as a threat to online travel agencies.
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Image source: Getty Images.
Can Booking bounce back?
Some of the challenges facing Booking seem temporary. Oil prices could remain elevated in Iran, but the Strait of Hormuz will eventually reopen, and fuel prices should normalize.
The threat from AI is less clear, but Booking, which owns sites like Kayak and Priceline, is more than just a software platform, as the company has a relationship with thousands of hotels, and reassembling that would not be easy even for a skilled AI tool.
Booking has been one of the most reliable growth stocks over its history, and that pattern continued in the fourth quarter. Room nights were up 9%, driving 11% growth in gross bookings and revenue on a constant-currency basis. Revenue reached $6.3 billion, ahead of the consensus at $6.13 billion. It also expanded margins with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rising 19% to $2.2 billion.
Initiatives like alternative accommodations, or apartments that compete with Airbnb properties, are paying off as alternative accommodations rose 9%, and the company's guidance in 2026, which came before the war in Iran started, called for low double-digit gross bookings and revenue growth. It also sees mid-teens earnings-per-share growth.
Why Booking is still a buy
What has made Booking so successful is its business model of partnering with independent hotels who benefit from the company's brand reach and ability to connect them with travelers.
It's grown steadily year-after-year by adding new properties to its platform and from the growth of the travel sector. Over the long term, demand for travel will continue to grow despite any setback related to the Iran conflict. Young consumers show a preference for spending their money on experiences rather than goods, and as the developing world gets wealthier, those consumers should spend more on travel as well.
Booking is well-positioned to be a winner from that trend.
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Jeremy Bowman has positions in Airbnb. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Airbnb and Booking Holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
