NOV Stock Rallies 49% in a Year: Time to Buy or Move On?
Shares of NOV Inc. NOV climbed 49.5% in the past year compared with the Mechanical and Equipment Oil and Gas sub-industry and the broader oil and energy sector's rise of 62% and 25.3%, respectively. However, NOV lagged behind some of its peers like Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. SEI and Oil States International, Inc. OIS, which surged 121% and 65.4%, respectively, in the same time frame.
NOV, OIS & SEI’s One-Year Stock Performance
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Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Houston, TX, NOV is a leading provider of equipment, technologies and services for the global oil and gas drilling and production industry. Operating across 548 locations on six continents, the company generates about 37% of its revenues from North America. NOV operates through two segments — Energy Equipment and Energy Products and Services — offering integrated drilling systems, drilling tools, pipe solutions and aftermarket services, supported by a strong acquisition-driven growth strategy.
Over the past year, shares of the company have displayed moderate performance, leaving investors wondering whether the stock will rise further or if NOV is due for a pullback. Before we dive into how investors should react, let us take a quick look at its current standing and outcomes.
NOV’s 2026 Earnings Estimates Are Going Up
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NOV’s 2026 earnings is pegged at 83 cents per share, indicating a 33.9% year-over-year rise. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Oil States International indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 43.2% for 2026. However, Solaris Energy lags behind, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate projecting a 12.8% year-over-year decline in 2026 earnings.
NOV’s Earnings Estimate
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Technology Leadership Drives Market Share Gains
NOV continues to strengthen its competitive position through differentiated technologies and growing customer adoption. Businesses such as ReedHycalog drill bits gained U.S. market share despite declining industry rig counts, while digital drilling services, wired drill pipe technologies and automation solutions continue to see rising customer demand. The company is also expanding advanced offerings across offshore, production equipment and drilling automation markets. As operators increasingly prioritize efficiency and productivity over simply adding rigs, NOV's technology portfolio positions it to capture higher-margin opportunities and command stronger pricing, supporting sustainable long-term earnings growth beyond the current cycle.
Healthy Capital Returns Enhance Shareholder Value
NOV continues to return substantial capital to its shareholders while maintaining financial flexibility. During the quarter, the company repurchased $67 million of shares, paid $33 million in dividends and raised its quarterly dividend by 20%. Over the last eight quarters, NOV has returned more than $900 million through dividends and buybacks while maintaining a strong balance sheet and extending its revolving credit facility through 2030. Management also plans to distribute a supplemental dividend tied to its commitment to return at least 50% of excess free cash flow. These shareholder-friendly actions provide downside support while rewarding long-term investors.
Large Backlog and Improving Order Momentum Provide Revenue Visibility
Despite geopolitical disruptions, NOV continues to secure healthy orders across several product categories. Energy Equipment bookings reached their strongest first-quarter level since 2019, while fiberglass, drill pipe and subsea businesses reported exceptionally strong order activity. Several businesses now carry their highest backlog levels in years, providing meaningful revenue visibility. Management expects Energy Equipment's full-year book-to-bill ratio to approach 100%, suggesting new orders are largely replacing revenue recognized. Strong backlog conversion during the remainder of 2026, combined with increasing offshore and international opportunities, reduces near-term demand uncertainty and supports the company's longer-term growth outlook. Within the mechanical and equipment sub-industry, peer companies like Solaris Energy and Oil States International are also benefiting from the rising demand due to new deepwater projects.
NOV’s Discounted Valuation
NOV’s shares are cheap on a relative basis, with its Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio being 7.75X compared with its industry average of 8.58X.
Valuation Comparison
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Rounding Up
NOV stock demonstrated a moderate performance in the past year against the broader industry, sector and peer companies — SEI and OIS. However, NOV is benefiting from rising earnings estimates, expanding market share through differentiated drilling technologies, a strong order backlog that enhances revenue visibility and disciplined capital returns through dividends and share repurchases. Its attractive valuation further strengthens the investment case. This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company’s technology leadership, improving order momentum and long-term growth outlook attract the investors with a long-term horizon to buy.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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