The Canadian and American flags fly at a border crossing in Surrey, B.C., in 2021. Tension between the countries will ease when President Donald Trump's power shrinks, writes Lawrence Martin.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Prime Minister Mark Carney wants us to believe the rupture with the United States will be long-lasting, maybe here to stay. He suggested it again in his weekend video posted on YouTube.
“Some ... believe that we should wait in the hope that the United States will return to normal,” he said. “But hope isn’t a plan and nostalgia is not a strategy.”
Is he right? Won’t there be a good deal of normalcy restored to the relationship with the shrinking of Donald Trump’s power? That could happen as early as six months from now with the midterm elections, in which he could very well lose his majorities in one or both houses of Congress.
Gordon Giffin, the Atlanta-based former U.S. ambassador to Canada who still monitors the two countries’ relationship closely, foresees good bilateral relations restored soon. “No one I speak to in Congress, Senate or House, agrees with Trump on Canada policy broadly,” he said in an e-mail. “I do believe that as of January 2027 we will begin a steady path back to normalcy.”
Normalcy will be different than before, he added, given the Canadianization measures Mr. Carney is taking. These measures, which he very much applauds, will make Canada less reliant on the U.S. but won’t lead to a worsening of ties. On the contrary, Mr. Giffin said, “The U.S. will in due course revert to an ally and friend and reliable commercial partner that Canada can trust.”
Fen Osler Hampson, chancellor’s professor at Carleton University and a specialist in bilateral relations, doesn’t see the relationship being irreparably broken. Deep mutual dependence between the two countries has been built up for more than a century, he said in an interview. “That is not something that one man sitting in the White House can destroy.”
He’s right.
Editorial: Mark Carney’s push toward realpolitik
For David MacNaughton, who was our ambassador to Washington in Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Carney is correct in saying the relationship is substantially changing. But, “Even if our diversification strategy works successfully,” he e-mailed, “we will still have well over 50 per cent of our exports going to the U.S.”
The rupture Mr. Carney talks about is most likely to be temporary. Even if Mr. Trump survives the midterms without a substantial loss of power in Congress, the general election is only two-and-a-half years away. With his exit, the pall cast over the bilateral friendship will be lifted. The American hostility to Canada has been a one-man phenomenon. No successor will seek to disrespect Canada and damage ties the way he has.
The American political class doesn’t agree with the Trump troglodytes on Canada. Nor does the business class. Nor do the American people themselves want estranged relations.
Canadians have been taken aback by the large numbers of Americans who have supported Mr. Trump. But the travel boycotts and purchasing boycotts of American products will taper off when he goes.
The condition of the relationship will hinge largely on what happens with trade negotiations on USMCA. Going into the midterm elections, the Republicans, already hurting because of energy prices, are not likely to torpedo trade relations with Canada by trying to impose draconian terms.
Ottawa is in no hurry to make a deal. It’s a wise strategy, since after the midterms Mr. Trump could be in a weaker bargaining position.
As for the Trump tariff war, his government, following the Supreme Court decision, has embarrassingly had to start reimbursing businesses from which it illegally collected US$166-billion in tariffs.
The U.S. Supreme Court in February struck down President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs that he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, rejecting one of his most contentious assertions of his authority.
Reuters
Mr. Trump talks of not needing Canada for anything. Anyone with a mind not addled knows the importance to the American market of crude oil, electricity, natural gas, potash, aluminum, steel, softwood lumber, auto parts and much else from Canada.
Though Democrats, as Mr. MacNaughton points out, are of a protectionist mindset, they are hardly in a league with MAGA. Bilateral relations were normalizing during Joe Biden’s presidency and the same can be expected if they take power under a new leader.
Mr. Carney surely realizes all these things. But he has good reason to overstate the case about the permanence of the break with America. His Canadianization policies feed off Mr. Trump’s America-first megalomania and the wrath it arouses.
Should Mr. Trump go full-on fascist and keep himself or his forces in power, the more steps to being masters in our own house we’ve taken, the better. If, as is far more likely, the relationship takes the normalization path Mr. Giffin predicts, we’re better off as well. Steps will have been taken that make us less vulnerable, no matter who’s in power in Washington.