U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the 158th National Memorial Day Observance at Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia on Monday. Trump’s approval ratings have been on a slow but consistent decline since he took office.Alex Brandon/The Associated Press
Debra Thompson is a contributing columnist for The Globe and Mail.
U.S. President Donald Trump may never have had a complete stranglehold on the fractured interests that comprise the ideological right in the United States. But substantial – and, if the Democratic Party could get its act together, exploitable – cracks in his power over the Republican Party are beginning to show.
The President’s approval ratings have been on a slow but consistent decline since he took office. Many of his decisions have been deeply unpopular, including the imposition of tariffs, ICE raids and deportations, the long government shutdown last fall, DOGE’s slash-and-burn approach to reshaping the public service, the ridiculously extravagant White House ballroom renovations, and, as always, the consequences of the White House’s actions on people’s ability to the survive the resulting economic instability. Internal fissures have also plagued the MAHA (Make America Healthy Again) movement, which once staunchly backed Mr. Trump’s agenda surrounding the rollback of vaccines – and, frankly, of science as a whole. Last month, this ascendant but fragile coalition led by “wellness influencers” mobilized against the government’s pesticide liability protections in the Farm Bill.
The President was never going to win over Democrats. But now, his popularity is plunging, with his approval ratings at 37 per cent, according to the recent Times/Siena poll. No President has seen such lows for more than a few days over the last 17 years, risking the alienation of the politically critical voting bloc of independents in the states that helped give him the edge in 2024.
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Two decisions in particular appear to be cracking his base open. The first is the President’s war on Iran. The Times/Siena poll found that most voters think that was the wrong decision, with 23 per cent of self-declared Republicans and 75 per cent of independents feeling that way. And when asked about whether Americans’ financial precarity motivated him to strike a deal with Iran, the President responded, “Not even a little bit. ... I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation.” This comment has been widely derided, given Mr. Trump’s frequent claims that he was committed to ordinary Americans.
Prominent voices on the right, including Tucker Carlson and Theo Von, have openly criticized the war as a violation of “America First,” while the barely contained antisemitism in some corners of MAGA (which is distinct from, but overlaps with, growing anti-Israel sentiment among Republican elites) have used this latest American intervention in the Middle East to spew longstanding conspiracy theories.
Then there’s the US$1.8-billion “anti-weaponization fund” to compensate those who claim they were targeted by the Justice Department under Joe Biden and the Democrats. A memo from Todd Blanche, the acting U.S. Attorney-General, established the fund as part of a settlement for Mr. Trump’s US$10-billion lawsuit against the IRS for the unauthorized disclosure of his tax information.
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Even if we set aside the extraordinary circumstance of a sitting president suing a core institution of his own executive branch, the creation of a slush fund for his aggrieved allies remains a remarkably disturbing proposal. Even Republicans in Congress, for whom the bar of holding the President to account is so low it’s now nearing the centre of the Earth, have revolted, have gone as far as to abandon a planned vote to push through US$72-billion in funding for more immigration crackdowns. That is telling of the increasingly tenuous hold the President has over the GOP, as are the departures of some of the Trump administration’s most powerful women, either by firing or resignation.
Much of what has occurred in the U.S. since the war began earlier this year fits with advice from the dictator’s handbook. First, ignore the well-being of the general populace. Second, rely not just on fear and repression to silence opponents, but also bribery to appease supporters. Third, use public purges of high-ranking officials in the inner circle to simultaneously scapegoat, deflect blame and distract.
None of this means Trumpism will collapse tomorrow. The longevity of political coalitions that draw together such strange bedfellows will always be contingent on members’ abilities to forge compromises among themselves. Perhaps more importantly, there are only two U.S. political parties; in this era of extreme ideological polarization, many will continue to support Mr. Trump because they despise the alternative more.
Still, the cracks are becoming harder to ignore. The Trump administration’s theatrical displays of power no longer project confidence so much as insecurity. Mr. Trump is clearly compensating for his loss of status. But the more aggressively his administration attempts to weaponize grievance, consolidate personal loyalty, and distract from its disconnect from the struggles of ordinary Americans, the more visible the limits of that strategy becomes.