A military vessel of the Royal Danish Navy patrols near Nuuk, Greenland, on Thursday.Evgeniy Maloletka/The Associated Press
Michael Byers teaches global politics and international law at the University of British Columbia.
My first encounter with the Sirius Patrol came after I’d delivered a speech at a conference in Nuuk, Greenland, in 2019.
A young man wearing Danish military camouflage approached me. He was tall and lean, with a weather-beaten face and piercing blue eyes.
“You’re right about the Arctic being a dangerous place,” he said. “Last winter, I travelled by dog sled along the coast of northeastern Greenland.”
“Did you see anyone?” I asked.
“No people,” he smiled. “No Russians, no Chinese, but lots of hungry polar bears!”
Each year, the Danish military deploys 12 men and more than 150 huskies into the vastness of northern Greenland. Divided into six groups of two sleds, they fan out over thousands of kilometres of snow and ice on missions that last six months.
The Sirius Patrol was created during the Second World War to search out and destroy secret German weather stations. It’s also one of the ways that Denmark maintains its claim over the world’s largest island.
In 1933, the Permanent Court of International Justice held that Denmark had successfully established sovereignty over all of Greenland because the presence required to do so in a remote and extreme location is less than that required elsewhere.
Today, satellites and aircraft fulfill most of Denmark’s surveillance needs. The Sirius Patrol survives because some on-the-ground activity is still required.
It helps that the United States has recognized Danish sovereignty over Greenland on numerous occasions, including in a 1951 defence agreement that was updated in 2004.
The Sirius Patrol contributes to maintaining public support in Denmark for the considerable expense of patrolling Greenland and supporting its remote communities. From a public-relations perspective, it’s the equivalent of an astronaut program, with its members being feted as heroes when they return home.
The Sirius Patrol is just one part of Denmark’s small but highly capable military. In May, 2023, I taught at the Royal Danish Defence College in Copenhagen. My students were mid-career officers; most had served in Afghanistan. Denmark lost 43 soldiers in that conflict, the highest per-capita casualty rate of any NATO country.
In addition to being Arctic-trained and battle-hardened, Danish soldiers are also motivated by a historic humiliation. In 1939, the Danish government sought to appease Nazi Germany by signing a non-aggression pact. But Adolf Hitler did not respect international treaties and, in 1940, German forces invaded. Danish soldiers fought back – but only for two hours, at which point they were ordered to surrender by their own government. The Danish people suffered under a Nazi occupation for the duration of the war.
One fine spring day in Copenhagen, I met with Thomas Winkler, the senior lawyer in Denmark’s foreign ministry. He chatted happily about the 2022 resolution of the Hans Island dispute, which included the creation of very short land border between Canada and Greenland.
“It was the greatest moment of my career!” Mr. Winkler exclaimed.
“But the most interesting moment of my career,” the Danish diplomat-lawyer continued, “came in 2019, when Prime Minister [Mette] Frederiksen phoned me in the middle of the night. Donald Trump had just told her that he wanted to buy Greenland. She needed to respond, and was seeking my advice.”
“What did you tell her?” I asked.
“That Denmark cannot sell Greenland, because Greenland belongs to Greenlanders!”
Most of Greenland’s 57,000 residents are Inuit. In 2009, they concluded a self-government agreement with Denmark that limits Copenhagen’s responsibilities to defence and foreign affairs. It also recognizes that the right of self-determination extends to full independence, if and when Greenlanders make that choice.
And so, on that night in 2019, Ms. Frederiksen politely informed Donald Trump that he could not buy Greenland from her. Enraged by this response, he cancelled an upcoming state visit to Denmark.
Trump’s annexation threats raise thorny questions for Greenland and Denmark
Since returning to the White House one year ago, Mr. Trump has been pressing the issue of Greenland again. He even raised the possibility of using military force, saying that, “One way or the other, we’re going to have Greenland.”
What began as a curiosity is quickly becoming a crisis.
On Wednesday, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, the Prime Minister of Greenland, said: “We choose the Greenland we know today, which is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark.”
Mr. Trump responded that anything less than U.S. control of Greenland was “unacceptable” to him.
On Thursday, the Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers met with Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington. The meeting ended after the Greenland and Danish leaders refused to give ground.
‘Fundamental disagreement’ with U.S. over Greenland, Danish official says after meeting Vance, Rubio
Mr. Trump might decide that further negotiations are pointless. But let’s be clear: If the United States invades, Denmark and Greenland will fight.
Nobody should assume that the conflict would end quickly. Danish soldiers and Inuit hunters know the land and ice. In the Winter War of 1939-1940, the Soviet Army was pushed out of Finland by snipers equipped with cross-country skis and white camouflage. More recently, the all-powerful U.S. military was pushed out of Vietnam and Afghanistan by local forces employing guerrilla tactics.
What can Canada do to prevent an armed conflict between two NATO allies?
First, we must understand that there is no rational basis for Mr. Trump’s security concerns, as the U.S. already has full access to Greenland under the 1951 defence agreement.
The fact that there is only one U.S. military base on Greenland is the result of choices, made by the Pentagon, based on expert assessments that there is no state-to-state threat to Greenland.
Russia is a dangerous country. But it already has unquestioned sovereignty over half of the Arctic, and doesn’t need more.
Russia does use the waters between Greenland and the other Nordic countries to access the Atlantic Ocean and play “submarine games” with NATO navies. But none of this is new.
China, meanwhile, accesses the natural resources that it needs through foreign investment and international trade. This explains why China has never used force in Africa or Latin America. Some of its companies have explored the possibility of establishing mines in Greenland, but none have actually done so.
Greenland is immense and will therefore have lots of critical minerals, but about 80 per cent of the island is covered by an ice sheet that is several kilometres thick. As for oil, an exploratory drilling campaign, conducted off the southwest coast of Greenland 15 years ago, found no exploitable reserves.
Even if the prospects for resources were good, U.S. companies already have access to them – provided they comply with the laws and regulations set by the Greenlandic government.
Mr. Trump recently said that ownership of Greenland is, for him, “psychologically needed for success.” There’s the nub of this matter. Mr. Trump is using Greenland to test how far he can impose his will. If NATO countries acquiesce on this, he will own all of us.
This is why Greenland is the first, best, and last opportunity to stand up to Mr. Trump.
Standing up alone is a losing strategy, because Mr. Trump understands basic game theory. He operates one-on-one and forces concessions by focusing power and creating deliberate uncertainties – about what he might do, and what others might achieve or concede in their separate dealings with him.
The only way to overcome this “prisoner’s dilemma” is to communicate constantly with allies, speak with one voice, and insist that all negotiations take place multilaterally.
After a year of divide-and-conquer, there are signs that some NATO governments have figured this out. Last week, two joint statements affirmed Greenland’s right of self-determination, the first by Denmark, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland and Britain, and the second by Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Iceland. Canada was more cautious, with Prime Minister Mark Carney expressing support during a meeting with the Danish Prime Minister.
It’s time, also, to engage global institutions. Canada and our European allies should call an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. The United States will veto any draft resolution, but the issue could then be taken up by the UN General Assembly. A resolution there, affirming the right to self-determination of Greenlanders, would achieve widespread support.
A soldier walks toward the Joint Arctic Command headquarter in Nuuk, Greenland, on Thursday.ALESSANDRO RAMPAZZO/AFP/Getty Images
Canada and European countries also need to be present in Greenland. Canada will officially open a consulate in Nuuk next month, which is commendable but insufficient. The Canadian Armed Forces should be conducting exercises with other NATO militaries in Greenland. The first Swedish and French soldiers have already arrived.
European troops arrive in Greenland after talks with U.S. end with no fix for dispute
NATO governments should also be sending a co-ordinated signal that any U.S. invasion of Greenland will have real consequences, such as the loss of access to military bases in Canada and Europe.
The North Atlantic alliance was born out of the need to present a common front to a nuclear-armed superpower with expansionist ambitions. The same logic applies today. If Mr. Trump does invade, Canada and its European allies could create a “new NATO” – one that excludes the United States but is open to democratic countries like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and Mexico.
Mr. Trump is a bully and a megalomaniac. If we let him take Greenland, he will only want more.
Editor’s note: A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that Jens-Frederik Nielsen, the Prime Minister of Greenland, and Mette Frederiksen, the Prime Minister of Denmark, took part in a meeting in Washington. Lars Lokke Rasmussen, the Danish foreign minister, and Vivian Motzfeldt, the Greenland foreign minister, represented their countries in the meeting.