Prime Minister Mark Carney walks with Liberal MPs Tatiana Auguste, left, Danielle Martin and Doly Begum as they make their way to a meeting of the Liberal caucus in Ottawa on Wednesday.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
With the flock of floor-crossers from the Conservative Party and the by-election results Monday, Mark Carney and company can remain in power until 2029. That will mark a 14-year stretch since Justin Trudeau’s dismantling of the Stephen Harper Conservatives in 2015. And who knows how much longer this run might extend.
Ho hum, here we go again, another Liberal dynasty. Wilfrid Laurier was in power for 15 years. Mackenzie King and Louis St. Laurent combined for a hefty run of 22. Pierre Trudeau arrogantly occupied the throne for 16 years, interrupted only by the Joe Clark hiccup in 1979. Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin? A mere 13.
Mr. Carney is highly popular. His Liberals enjoy a strong edge in the polls. He has done something to opposition Conservatives none of his Liberal predecessors did. He’s poached both their policies and their MPs. In abundance.
The Conservatives did woefully in the by-elections, dropping their vote share in each of the ridings. In Pierre Poilievre they have a skipper who, while articulate on policy, can’t shake his image problem. He comes across – his several-sizes-too-small suit jackets don’t help – as a tad nerdy, like an AI creation.
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The New Democratic Party is in the hinterlands. New Leader Avi Lewis is a firebrand but it’s hard to stoke flames without a seat in the House of Commons.
Meanwhile, Mr. Carney has ensconced his Liberals in the centre, where the party has broader appeal. He’s turning the big tent into a coliseum. Even social conservatives like defector Marilyn Gladu are welcome.
MP for Sarnia-Lambton-Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu hugs MP for Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum as Carney welcomes newly elected members to caucus.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Mr. Carney realizes the middle way is the Canadian way. Dynasties are built from there – where the bulk of Canadian voters reside. As a centrist, you’re politically in the pole position. You have a power play advantage. One of these centuries the Conservatives might realize this. Their flight to the right beginning with the Reform Party insurrection four decades ago hasn’t played to their advantage.
Carney enthusiasts need to bear in mind that he has only been in power a year and that most PMs do well in their first year as voters tend to be forgiving. The Liberals face strong headwinds. There are separatist movements in Quebec and Alberta, major stresses in the land over the cost of living, an AI revolution potentially causing massive layoffs, tariff turmoil from Washington and God knows what else from the head case in the White House.
But Mr. Carney’s popularity has a good chance of enduring, not only because of the state of the opposition but because he has found an unusual comfort level with Canadians. For starters, he is not a career politician. For decades, career politicians have had the run of the country. With them most everything has the look of political calculation. All politics all the time. By contrast, Mr. Carney comes across as a citizen of the world unburdened by parochial politics. In the face of crises he’s shown a calm competence and stability that Canadians admire. He has lowered the anger level in the country by being less partisan.
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Under this Prime Minister, pollster David Coletto of Abacus Data notes, “Canadians continue to view their own country as relatively stable compared with a world increasingly defined by uncertainty and conflict.” His polling shows that Canadians are about evenly divided on whether the country is headed in the right direction. But the contrast is striking. “Just 13 per cent believe the world is headed in the right direction compared with 77 per cent who say it is on the wrong track.”
Conservatives decry Mr. Carney’s courting and acceptance of floor-crossers as evidence of his being just another low-grade political operator. What a canard. As if a Conservative prime minister or any other PM would not welcome defectors – especially with a majority government at stake – with open arms.
Where Conservatives can understandably feel bitter, as I’ve previously written, is by the degree to which good fortune has come the Liberals’ way. That certainly has been the case with Mr. Carney. The way Donald Trump’s anti-Canadian measures and threats turned the tide in the last election is well documented.
The Trump effect is likely to continue to work to the Liberals’ benefit. Even if Mr. Carney doesn’t get a good trade deal, for example, voters are likely to throw a lot of the blame in the demagogue’s direction.
With an election not likely for another three years, the Carney opponents have time to improve their standing. It will be tough. Given the range of factors working in its favour this Liberal dynasty could extend into the next decade.