Canadian and United States flags are seen flying near Parliament Hill.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Eric Helleiner is University Research Chair and professor at the Balsillie School of International Affairs at the University of Waterloo.
Canadians are rightly shocked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs and threats of annexation. In early 2025, he discussed using “economic force” to pressure the country into becoming the 51st state. He now warns that Canada can no longer have “the benefits of being a state, without being one.”
Canadians have faced this kind of threat before and remained resilient. Twice, in fact.
The first came in 1865, when the U.S. abruptly announced its withdrawal from a decade-old free trade agreement with the British colonies north of the border.
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Prominent American politicians hoped this move would starve their neighbours economically into accepting annexation. The U.S. consul general in Montreal even predicted that “the people of Canada themselves will apply for admission to the United States” within two years of free trade ending. Like Mr. Trump, he made Canadians an offer: “We will give you complete free trade, but we ask you to come and share with us the responsibilities of our own government.”
The consul general became as unpopular in Canada as U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra is today. His forecast was also wrong.
More prescient at the time was a Michigan businessman who noted that “whole peoples do not like to be coerced” and that Canadians were more likely to “rally around the flag of their country” than plead for annexation.
Rallying around the flag involved the creation of the new Dominion of Canada in 1867, support for which was bolstered by the U.S. threats.
Like their counterparts today, Canadian politicians hoped a more unified national market would foster commerce undisturbed by “the capricious will of any foreign country.” Anticipating Prime Minister Mark Carney, they also dispatched trade missions around the world, while appealing to the U.S. to restore free trade.
When the latter proved futile, support grew for a more protectionist strategy. Citing the ideas of John Rae (Canada’s first famous economist), then-prime minister John A. Macdonald soon developed the 1879 National Policy which further strengthened domestic commerce, industry and independence from the U.S.
Canadians showed equal resilience during a second episode in the early 1890s. Led by William McKinley (a hero of Mr. Trump’s), Republican policy makers shocked the world in 1890 by dramatically hiking U.S. tariffs and extending them to new goods, including many from Canada. Canada’s governor-general at the time described these moves as a “severe blow” that seemed “particularly directed against” Canada.
Some Americans saw an opportunity to press again for annexation, including U.S. secretary of state James Blaine, who explained the strategy in 1891: “We do not want any intercourse with Canada except through the medium of a tariff, and she will find that she has a hard row to hoe and will ultimately, I believe, seek admission to the Union.”
Even blunter was businessman Andrew Carnegie who – like Mr. Trump – declared that “if Canada wants the advantage of the American market, it must become American.”
At this time, Canadian officials reported that U.S. officials also “often reproached Canada with being unable to maintain an existence” without free trade with the U.S.
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Prime Minister Mark Carney during a summit last year.Evan Vucci/The Associated Press
Mr. Trump, too, now claims Canada “would cease to exist as a country” without Americans buying its goods.
In this new context, Macdonald, prime minister once again, called an election in early 1891, as Mr. Carney did in 2025. He warned of U.S. efforts “to force Canada into the American union” in a similar way as Mr. Carney argued that “President Trump is trying to break us, so America can own us.” Macdonald also emphasized the importance of his National Policy, trade diversification, and securing a new trade treaty with the U.S.
Like Mr. Carney, Macdonald won the election on this nationalist platform. Although he died soon after, the new government pursued his agenda, including trade talks with the U.S. But when the U.S. made tough demands in early 1892 (including a uniform external tariff at U.S. levels), it balked, prompting a breakdown of the negotiations. Plus ça change.
The 1890 tariff proved unpopular with American voters, contributing to the loss of Republican control of the House in the 1890 midterms, and the Senate and presidency in 1892. The threat of annexation then faded away, not to resurface for more than 130 years.
Canadians can hope for similar outcomes today. To be sure, the threat is more serious today; no U.S. president publicly threatened Canada with annexation in these two previous episodes.
But Canadians today are also more united than they were during these past moments. They also have the advantage of learning from this history.