Voter ballot boxes that will be used for Alberta's referendum, in Edmonton, on Sept. 3. The separatists are treating the referendum vote with great urgency. It’s time federalists figure out how to do the same.James Maclennan/The Canadian Press
Tyler Dawson is an Edmonton-based editor for The Globe and Mail’s Opinion section. He is the author of The Republic of Alberta: An Idea That Won’t Go Away.
Five weeks from now, Albertans will vote on a suite of referendum questions, including the question of whether or not the province should remain in Canada or hold a second referendum on whether to leave the country.
It’s quite literally an existential question. Yet, where’s the urgency?
And that’s a problem.
On Oct. 19, every separatist in the province is going to get down to their local polling station and vote. This is a do-or-die moment for them. They need a win in order to force a second vote on the question they really want asked, which is a clear yes-or-no question on secession. And while they’re not performing too well in the polls, they’re passionate, they’re engaged and they’re going to make sure their votes count.
Pro-Canada Albertans, on the other hand, may well be sleepwalking into serious trouble.
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If they win the referendum, it won’t be because of some gallant campaigning for Canada. Yes, there’s yeoman’s work being done by, among others, former premier Jason Kenney and Forever Canadian founder Thomas Lukaszuk – but it doesn’t feel like enough.
The numbers are stark: Projecting from current polls, 100-per-cent turnout for the separatists and 60-per-cent turnout for the federalists would make this a close vote. That would be a catastrophe. The pro-Canada side needs a decisive victory to put the separation question to rest, or at least to try to.
Given that, whither the federalists?
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Let’s start with the Premier. She made this vow, on May 22: “I’m going to campaign on the side of remain.”
Well, has she?
At absolute most, we can say that Danielle Smith has been out trying to show that Canada can work for Alberta by, for example, announcing a deal with Mark Carney for a new pipeline to the B.C. coast. This is valuable work, no doubt about that, but the Premier has, by and large, been missing in action. There has been no address to the province in which she lays out the case for Canada and against separation. There has been no rally organized by her government. Yes, there’s an advertising campaign now, but there’s little indication it will be a full-throated defence of the Canadian project.
Alberta referendum question seen in Edmonton on Sept. 9.JASON FRANSON/The Canadian Press
Naheed Nenshi, the leader of Alberta’s opposition New Democrats, has been doing his best. But let’s face it, the people that need to be reached and convinced to cast their ballot for Canada are not the die-hard separatists, who can’t be persuaded; they are those who are skeptical that Canada can work and might favour sending Ottawa a message (of some sort) by way of voting to hold a second referendum. The separatists are banking on these people siding with them in order to carry the day, and it’s likely that the ranks of these frustrated federalists are populated by conservatives. They’re not going to listen to Mr. Nenshi any more than a New Democrat is likely to be much moved by Ms. Smith.
And then there are the variety of groups putatively campaigning to remain in Canada. There is little co-ordination between them. They are struggling to raise a fraction of the money that the separatists have. They may be working hard, but they’re barely registering.
Where, for that matter, have the federal Conservatives been? Pierre Poilievre appointed Dane Lloyd to be the point man on the Alberta referendum, and they’ve launched a “Conservatives for Canada” campaign, but it’s a late-in-the-game effort. Whatever Mr. Lloyd did over the summer hasn’t been widely publicized. And Mr. Poilievre, still popular among conservatives and an MP representing an Alberta riding, could likely have made a real impact, but he, too, seems to have been busy on other political fronts.
None of this bodes well.
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There’s a silver lining here: Ms. Smith has put nine other questions on the ballot, and most of them are objectionable to left-leaning or moderate Albertans. As just one example, restricting social services to citizens, permanent residents and “Alberta-approved” immigrants is an outlandish proposal, straight from the fever swamps to the referendum paper, and a direct repudiation of key Canadian values. People might just be outraged enough that their government is contemplating such things that they’ll show up to vote against them – and cast a ballot for remaining in Canada at the same time.
There are five weeks to go. The separatists are treating this with great urgency. It’s time federalists figure out how to do the same – and for pro-Canada Albertans to make sure they, their friends, their family and their neighbours are going to cast a ballot on Oct. 19.