A five-bedroom cottage on Lake of Bays sold in January after two years on the market. In 2025, the market balance tilted more steeply towards buyers, said broker Paul Crammond.Andre Carriere/Andre Carriere/Virtual Tour Vissions
Fierce spring weather and significant flooding in Muskoka and other parts of Ontario have combined with economic uncertainty to create a damp start for the cottage real estate market.
The delay so far will likely lead to a compressed selling season, predicts Paul Crammond, broker with Chestnut Park Real Estate in Port Carling, Ont., who notes that even operations at local marinas are behind schedule.
“They just started putting boats in the water last week,” he says. “We’ll have one month less to accomplish things.”
The Victoria Day long weekend traditionally brings an influx of urban dwellers from the Greater Toronto Area.
“The weather in the GTA – where all the clients are – is equally poor,” Mr. Crammond says. “It’s a very emotional process. It’s hard to get in the mood.”
The same psychology is also holding back listings this year. “People aren’t thinking about selling – they’re not motivated either.”
Ontario cottage market searches for stability, squeezed by limited supply and mortgage renewals
Heavy rains and melting snow in April brought fast-flowing water to the towns of Bracebridge, Gravenhurst and Huntsville in areas north of Toronto.
Most sellers aim to list while the lake is sparkling and hanging baskets are laden with blooms, but many cottagers are still clearing broken tree limbs and other shoreline damage on the “Big Three” lakes of Joseph, Rosseau and Muskoka.
“It really takes some decent weather to do a good spring cleanup.”
Rarely, properties sell in the depths of winter, says Mr. Crammond.
In January, he and broker Tracy Stewart of Chestnut Park sold a five-bedroom cottage on Lake of Bays for $5.375-million after it spent two years on the market. The sale of 1902 Foxpoint Rd. marked the highest amount recorded on that lake since September of 2024, says Mr. Crammond, and came after the most recent asking price was set to $5.595-million.
This five-bedroom cottage at 1902 Foxpoint Rd. sold for $5.375-million.Arlene Burley/Arlene Burley/Visual Advantage
He estimates the highest sale in Muskoka so far in 2026 was a property that changed hands for between $8-million and $9-million. The cottage of approximately 5,000 square feet was around 20 years old and had also been on the market for about two years.
In 2025, inventory swelled, “Days on Market” stretched and the market balance tilted more steeply towards buyers, he says.
Over the longer term, Mr. Crammond notes, cottage values have been resilient at the high end, where owners and buyers are less buffeted by economic forces.
On Lake Joseph, for example, the average price climbed to $6.16-million in 2025 from $1.97-million in 2014, Mr. Crammond calculates. Some private deals not reflected in the statistics have taken place upwards of $15-million, he adds.
Mr. Crammond also points to Lake Rosseau, where last year he sold a five-bedroom cottage on five acres of land with 610 feet of shoreline for $5.3-million after listing the property with an asking price of $5.695-million.
The sale price was $300,000 higher than the $5-million the same property fetched when Mr. Crammond sold it near the height of pandemic cottage mania in September of 2021.
But he adds that an unpredictable economic outlook tends to make buyers more hesitant in segments below $5-million.
“A cottage is a discretionary purchase.”
That’s one reason sales dropped in 2025 from previous years and he expects similar activity in 2026 as consumers worry about their jobs and mortgage rates.
A hidden cottage opens to a shimmering lake
Also, while the “wealth effect” buoys recreational property sales when homeowners see rapidly escalating prices in the city, the reverse psychology takes hold if their primary residence is sinking in value.
“I think the wealth effect is very important,” Mr. Crammond says. “People have to feel financially comfortable that they can swing it.”
As May winds down, listings in Muskoka are scarce.
A few properties listed at prices between $14-million and $20-million are recently built vacation homes with lavish features.
Mr. Crammond says they tend to arrive on the market earlier in the season because speculative new construction properties are move-in ready down to the landscaping.
Today, cottage buyers with deep pockets prefer to dive into recreation right away.
“Many buyers expect a finished product. It has to be absolutely turnkey,” he says. “These are people with huge demands on their time.”
Mr. Crammond says setting a realistic asking price is key across every price range this year.
The buyers are more patient than they were during the COVID pandemic, when an exodus from the city sent prices soaring.
“If a property isn’t priced properly, they won’t even consider it seriously,” he says, explaining that they are not willing to test the seller’s resolve with an offer. “Most buyers these days are not horse traders. They do not want to invest emotionally.”
If a seller pushes for an asking price of $5-million, for example, a buyer will swerve towards a similar offering at $4.2-million, which looks like good value by comparison.
“You’re going to be helping those competing properties to sell.”
West of Toronto, high-end realtors sense a more animated market
In other parts of cottage country, some deals are coming together as sellers become resigned to the correction that started in 2022.
In the Kawartha Lakes and areas around Lake Simcoe, Alexis Victor, real estate agent with Royal LePage Signature Realty, sees some early signs that sales in 2026 will be more brisk than the dismal cottage market of 2025.
A modest rise in home sales in the GTA in April also suggests that consumers are feeling less anxiety after a tumultuous 2025 in politics and the Canadian economy.
As a result, she expects smoother sales in 2026 compared with 2025.
“I’ve never seen anything like it,” she says of the turmoil. “It was painful. Deal after deal fell apart.”
She points to the tribulations of a downsizing couple from Mississauga who purchased a waterfront home in the Kawartha Lakes region.
The three-bedroom bungalow in Bobcaygeon was listed in April of 2025 with an asking price just below $2-million.
After the asking price was cut to $1.8 million, Ms. Victor’s clients submitted an offer for $1.5-million, which the sellers accepted.
The deal included a “sale of purchaser’s property” clause, which made it contingent on the successful sale of their detached house in Mississauga.
The sellers in Bobcaygeon also had an “escape clause” which allowed them to accept an offer from another buyer. During the three months the agreement was in place, they reduced their asking price to $1.599-million.
At the end of the three months, Ms. Victor’s clients had not sold their current home, so she attempted to negotiate a reduction in price for the Bobcaygeon house to $1.4-million.
The sellers refused, and the deal died.
Eventually, the house sold for $1.35-million and the Mississauga property remains on the market.
Ms. Victor says similar tales have been rampant in areas outside the GTA.
“If the city market isn’t moving, we are not moving. Because if they can’t sell, they can’t buy.”
Rising mortgage rates also put more owners under pressure, which in turn brought an influx of listings and more desperate sellers. Eventually, patient sellers were also forced to slash prices.
“We had so many people just hanging on to this notion that they could get more money for their properties.”
Ms. Victor points to the example of one property where she estimated a value of about $850,000, but the homeowner listed it with another agent for $1-million.
One year later, she called Ms. Victor’s team and agreed to an asking price of $850,000, but the agent advised her that his estimate of value had dropped to $780,000.
The homeowner listed for $850,000 with another agent and eventually sold for $620,000.
“There is no amount of marketing that can sell an overpriced property,” Ms. Victor points out. “Buyers are savvy. They have all of this information at their fingertips.”
Ms. Victor says new listings have been slim so far, but she expects them to ramp up quickly. Some properties that didn’t sell last year will return, she adds.
For sellers who need to close a deal, she has blunt advice: “If you want to sell quickly, price five per cent below market value.”