Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has pledged to reach a comprehensive trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, but an agreement could prove to be complicated if Washington keeps 'moving the goal posts,' a trade expert says.Marco Ugarte/The Associated Press
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum greeted news of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade deal with the European Union with a now familiar optimism. “We expect an agreement this week,” she said.
But questions in her daily press conference inevitably turned to thornier topics such as fentanyl and drug cartel collusion in politics. One reporter queried about an American business group worrying the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade was being jeopardized if fentanyl isn’t curbed.
Fentanyl entering the U.S. from Mexico dropped 50 per cent since October, Ms. Sheinbaum insisted – something “recognized by U.S. agencies.”
Another reporter asked about chatter in the Mexican media of U.S. authorities pressing Ms. Sheinbaum to hand over politicians with alleged drug cartel ties. She called the story false and blamed opposition “columnists” for spreading it. “In no phone call that I’ve had with President Trump, and there have been many … has there been a request to turn over any particular person that has to do with politics.”
Ms. Sheinbaum has won plaudits for deftly handling the temperamental Mr. Trump as he threatened tariffs on Mexico, which sends more than 80 per cent of its exports to the United States.
She seemingly set the template for other world leaders as she counselled keeping a cool head and maintaining dialogue. She also refrained from applying reciprocal tariffs. The approach showed early signs of success with Mr. Trump expressing admiration for Ms. Sheinbaum.
But the personal rapport hasn’t stopped the U.S President from piling demands on Mexico or sparing it from tariffs. Mr. Trump sent Mexico a letter on July 12 promising 30-per-cent tariffs if no agreement is reached by Aug. 1.
It’s uncertain if USMCA-compliant goods would remain exempt from the tariffs. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently told CBS, “the President is absolutely going to renegotiate USMCA, but that’s a year from today.” The first joint review of USMCA is scheduled for July, 2026.
In a world of tariff pain, USMCA gives Canada an edge – for now
Mr. Trump’s letter recognized Mexico’s efforts in slowing the torrent of migrants heading to the U.S. border. “BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough,” he wrote. “Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground.”
The accusations underscore Mexico’s difficulties in placating Mr. Trump, who doubled down on his drug cartel accusations. He said days after sending his letter, “Mexican authorities are petrified … to go to work because the cartels have a tremendous grip on Mexico.”
Ms. Sheinbaum has rebuffed accusations of collusion with drug cartels. But attempts at mollifying Mr. Trump are proving impossible.
“Without clear benchmarks, it’s really easy for the U.S. government to just keep moving the goal posts,” said Diego Marroquín Bitar, a Mexican trade expert.
He cited a Canadian equivalent example in the Digital Services Tax, which Ottawa rescinded after U.S. threats to suspend trade talks. “It’s the same thing with Mexico’s security and immigration,” he said.
Mexico’s Foreign Ministry called the demands in Mr. Trump’s July 12 letter unfair. Ms. Sheinbaum pledged to reach a comprehensive deal with her U.S. counterpart. “I have experience with these things,” she said in a stump speech after the letter was published.
But irritants continue emerging in the bilateral relationship. Most recently, the U.S. Department of Transportation alleged violations of a bilateral aviation agreement over a 2022 decision to move cargo flights from Mexico City’s main airport to a new facility opened in a far-off suburb.
The U.S. earlier withdrew from an agreement on tomatoes, resulting in a 17-per-cent anti-dumping duty on Mexican growers. The U.S. also imposed sanctions on three Mexican banks in a fentanyl crackdown.
“It always seems that there’s something new being thrown on the table,” said Juan Carlos Baker Pineda, former vice-minister for international trade and professor at the Universidad Panamericana in Mexico City.
Mexico’s previous concessions have not necessarily resulted in better treatment from Mr. Trump, Mr. Baker Pineda said. “But at least there isn’t any verbal hostility toward President Sheinbaum.”
Mr. Trump’s ask has become heavier as talks drag on, especially on security matters.
Mexico initially responded to Mr. Trump’s demands by sending 10,000 soldiers to the northern border to ostensibly halt fentanyl and migrants. The country later handed over 29 drug cartel capos to U.S. justice officials, while ramping up arrests and the decommissioning of fentanyl labs. But Mr. Trump asked Mexico to allow U.S. soldiers to take the lead in tackling drug cartels, according to The Wall Street Journal. Ms. Sheinbaum declined the offer.
Speaking out on Mexican priorities is also proving fraught. Ms. Sheinbaum said Mexico would “mobilize” after a remittance tax proposal – which would hit moneys sent home by Mexicans in the United States – in comments misconstrued by MAGA supporters as the Mexican President rallying protests over immigration raids in U.S. cities.
She later expressed skepticism over U.S. justice officials striking a deal with Ovidio Guzmán, son of imprisoned Sinaloa Cartel boss Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, to turn state’s witness, asking why the U.S. was in talks when it had a policy of “not negotiating with terrorists” and didn’t include Mexico in its talks. The comments reflected opposition to Mr. Trump designating six Mexican drug cartels as terror organizations.
Opinion: Trump’s trade deal with Europe is a bad precedent for Canada
Jeffrey Lichtman, the younger Mr. Guzmán’s lawyer, said on X that Ms. Sheinbaum “acts more as the public-relations arm of a drug trafficking organization than as the honest leader that the Mexican people deserve.” Ms. Sheinbaum promised to sue the lawyer for defamation.
A scandal in the President’s Morena party also raised uncomfortable accusations of drug cartel collusion. Adán Augusto López, a former interior minister and key lieutenant under former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, was accused in leaked military intelligence documents of turning over the police of his home state of Tabasco to a leader allegedly linked with the violent Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Mr. López disappeared for several days, but later called the claims, “politicking” and denied wrongdoing.
“She has to hand over people to Washington. It’s just gone on too long,” said Federico Estévez, professor at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico. “I can’t think of another country” – spare China where – “the American wish list is as long and complicated as is the case with Mexico. The Canadian thing looks like peanuts compared to the case against Mexico.”