A residential building hit by U.S.-Israel air strikes days before a two-week ceasefire, in southern Tehran on Tuesday.-/AFP/Getty Images
Amid a barrage of violent talk and ambiguous announcements, the Strait of Hormuz has now fallen under a complete blockade, with Iran and the United States facing off against each other in mirror-image military threats.
After dawn broke Monday, a handful of vessels slipped through the narrow passage between Oman and Iran: A Chinese freighter, a Vietnamese ship and two Iran-linked oil tankers. And then, as U.S. President Donald Trump issued threats on social media, the strait went dead.
For the first time since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on Feb. 28, neither Iran-linked ships nor vessels originating from Gulf Arab countries were approaching the strait from the Persian Gulf. In fact, according to Lloyds List Intelligence, two tankers made U-turns as the U.S. blockade came into effect.
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Occurring in the wake of failed peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad over the weekend, the standoff effectively pits Mr. Trump against Iran’s regime in an economic endurance test. If it continues, it will have even more devastating effects on worldwide prices and supplies of oil, gas and fertilizer.
That does not seem to have been Mr. Trump’s intention – he appears to believe he can reopen the strait by adding another barrier to Iran’s weeks-long blockade.
Meanwhile, Britain and France jointly announced a “peaceful” military mission Monday to actually reopen the strait – which could put them at odds with both Tehran and Washington.
A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, on April 12.Stringer/Reuters
“In the coming days, together with the United Kingdom, we will organize a conference with those countries prepared to contribute alongside us to a peaceful multinational mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait,” French president Emmanuel Macron declared in a statement.
“This strictly defensive mission, separate from the warring parties to the conflict, is intended to be deployed as soon as circumstances permit.”
The U.S. military’s Central Command declared Monday that the blockade would only apply to “vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports” − that non-Iranian tankers could theoretically now travel through the strait. “Centcom forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports,” it said.
The U.S. military began a blockade of ships leaving Iran's ports on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said, and Tehran threatened to retaliate against its Gulf neighbours' ports after weekend talks in Islamabad on ending the war broke down.
Reuters
In theory, that should have meant that the constant, high-volume traffic of Iranian oil that had been leaving the Gulf for the past six weeks would be replaced by a similar number of tankers carrying oil from Gulf Arab states.
But the actual effect has been to make it too dangerous for tankers of any nationality to approach the strait. That’s because Iran may still be demanding tolls from ships in exchange for a safe crossing, and the U.S. Central Command announced it would seize any vessel that had paid the toll, putting tanker owners in a difficult position.
Insurers now face “a scenario where vessels compliant with Iranian demands may be seized by American forces, and vessels attempting to comply with American demands may be targeted by Iran,” Insurance Business magazine reported Monday. “The two sets of obligations are, for some vessels already in the strait, potentially irreconcilable.”
At root is Mr. Trump’s decision, made shortly after the peace talks failed, not to use his military to open the strait but instead to impose his own blockade against Iranian vessels.
Iran fired back with its own renewed threats targeting Mr. Trump’s action and, in theory, any vessels that heeded it.
“The restrictions imposed by criminal America on maritime navigation and transit in international waters are illegal and constitute an example of piracy,” declared a statement issued by the Iranian military’s central command centre and read live on state television.
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The shipping industry also strongly condemned Mr. Trump’s blockade.
Arsenio Dominguez, head of the International Maritime Organization, declared that Mr. Trump had no right to impose a blockade on the strait – just as Iran had no authority to do so.
“From a legal perspective, in accordance with international law, there is no right to prohibit the right of innocent passage, nor to impede the freedom of navigation through international straits used for international transit,” Mr. Dominguez said.
Saudi Arabia took a different approach. Its Ministry of Energy declared Monday that it had successfully repaired and reopened the East-West Pipeline, a major artery that carries crude oil westward to the Red Sea.
The pipeline had been attacked in a major series of Iranian drone strikes last Wednesday, hours after the U.S.-Iranian ceasefire had been declared. The ministry claimed that the repair “highlights the operational resilience of the Kingdom’s energy sector, reinforcing the reliability of energy supplies.”
But this alternative route has also become fraught: In recent days, Red Sea oil shipments have been harassed by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.